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cover of episode GOP Donor Daddies Still Don’t Understand Donald Trump

GOP Donor Daddies Still Don’t Understand Donald Trump

2023/9/4
logo of podcast Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri

Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri

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Republican donors are investing heavily in candidates who are significantly trailing Trump, hoping to find someone who can unseat him.

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This is Tara Palmieri, Puck's senior political correspondent, and welcome back to Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm here to get you through your post-Labor Day blues to talk about a real upper, the 1%. People so rich that they can throw millions of dollars away to gamble on politics.

Today I'm going to talk about donor daddies, you know, high net worth individuals who play the high stakes game of choosing candidates to give millions of dollars to, hoping that they will actually become the president.

I know we're calling them donor daddies because a lot of them are men. And a lot of them want to move on from the chaos of Trump. At least that's what they tell me. They just don't want another Trump administration. They don't want the January 6th shenanigans. They want stability. They want a Reagan Bush type administration.

Republican. But does it really make sense to blow millions and millions of dollars on Tim Scott or Nikki Haley or even Ron DeSantis when they're about more than 20 points shy of Donald Trump?

To talk about all of this, I'm bringing in Teddy Schleifer, my colleague at Puck, who has very close proximity to this class of people covering philanthropy and the donor set for Puck. You should read his newsletter, The Stratosphere, if you're as fascinated by their whims as I am. There's a sort of courtship that happens between candidates and donors, and I'm just so fascinated by how they can become enchanted by a person to write them seven, eight-figure checks. They're super PACs.

His reporting is amazing. He brings their machinations and soft spots to life, their dreams, their hopes. He'll give you inside anecdotes from the fundraising soirees and the private jets, tracing the globe. So, Teddy, first of all, to really be able to talk about this subject, I feel like we need a raise, right? Like a really big one to channel what it's like to have so much money that you could just throw it away on someone who can't run for president. Sure. Sounds good. Also, first of all, Tara, happy birthday. Yes. I turn...

I'm not going to say it. I'm turned 36 today. But yeah, it's my birthday. It's always back to school, September 1. A little bit of summertime. I don't know.

I don't know, melancholy because you know it's over, but then you kind of hope that fall will be fun. So get your last licks in this weekend. I've made a $10 million contribution to the Tara Palmieri Super Pack as a little birthday present. What would you call my Super Pack? I think my favorite soft money group names are the most anodyne bullshit lading groups that are often put up to evade detection for as long as possible. I remember this Ted Cruz group I covered in 2016 was called Stand for Truth, Inc.,

like INC dot as if it's like this like you know refrigerator manufacturer in Milwaukee you know just like your normal ink yeah go with like you know friends friends no bullshit ink friends of TP ink friends of TP yeah sure or another other good names are like the ones where they try to do like an acronym that like says something else like that like the Tim Scott super pack this cycle is called like trust in mission ink right

or something which is like Tim Inc. Or I remember during... Actually, during 2016, the Carly Fiorina Super PAC... I'll spare listeners all the details here. But basically, you can't name the Super PAC after the actual hard dollar committee. So in 2016, the Carly Fiorina Super PAC... Her name is Carly. C-A-R-L-Y is her first name. I think the group was also called Carly, but it was Carly as an acronym. It was like

compassionate. You know, the A stands for advanced. The R stands for Reagan-esque. And it was something like that. But it was as an acronym. Carly Pack. As an acronym was Carly Pack. But like, I guess I think the the conceit there is that

It's not really Carly as in Carly Fiorina. It's just an acronym that happens to spell Carly. No, it was the Carly Pack. Everybody knew it. Everybody called it that. It's like never back down. No one's really calling it that. It's the DeSantis. Sure, sure. Or the DeSantis campaign, depending on who you ask. Tara, I would read a profile of the people who come up with these names, right? I mean, like the Super Pack naming cottage industry.

It's going to be big. It's kind of like the same people who come up with headlines at the Post. When I worked there at the New York Post, there was a whole area and they kept them away from us, the headline writers, and they would basically come up

with post headlines and we would just sort of you know take it like we would try to suggest them especially with the whole wiener gate stuff like i remember when you're trying to get like the rise and fall of wiener or like you really blew it or whatever it was like we would send funny ones at the end of the day actually suggesting a headline would mean more likely than not that you weren't going to get a headline because there was a sacred circle around the writers who wrote

the headlines at the New York Post. And they were at these special little chickens in their little cage. And they came up with things and they were super creative. And the rest of us fools had to stay away. All right, Teddy. Packed to the hard. Nuts and bolts were really just things that fascinate me. Why would you, if you're Larry Ellison, who gave $35 million over 3 years to Tim Scott, continue to write him an $8 million check?

when it's so obvious that Trump is going to win? Why are these cent millionaires, billionaires just throwing money away on candidates who can't beat Trump? Please illuminate this. Sure. Let's have some fun here. Let's try to make the bull case, right? For why anybody looks at the polls and sees Trump up by 40 points nationally or 30 points in Iowa or 20 points in New Hampshire, blah, blah, blah. Why you might say,

another dollar is going to help. So let's start with some obvious points here. It is September. We are some months away from the beginning of the Republican primary calendar. A lot can happen over that period. There are voters who are not paying attention to this race at all. Lots of groups have not really started advertising in a significant way. Right. After Labor Day, it will get really crazy. Sure. Right. And so I think the point one I would make here is

is that the national polls or the state polls don't really matter because it's just measuring name ID and we're just getting started here. Point two,

is that there is an argument to be made that if this field consolidates with enough time, Trump can be beat. I mean, the favorability ratings of Trump are obviously still very good in the Republican Party, but there are a lot of people who do not want him to be the nominee and maybe certainly would not want him to be the nominee if there was a credible alternative who had consolidated other support. And you could imagine

another option. So I think part of the logic here as we continue to make the bull case and maybe we can make the bear case after, though the bear case is pretty easy. I think part of the bull case is that the money can help consolidate the field. That if you make a contribution that convinces a

let's say a Mike Pence to drop out of the race for the good of the country. Who, by the way, has millions of dollars in a super PAC right now. So that means people are giving him tons of money thinking he can win. But I think, I think part of the bull case here is that rather than the money just happening after the consolidation, but the money can kind of force the consolidation that there is a way in which, you know, if you give Ron DeSantis, you know, 50 million bucks or a hundred million bucks or 5 million bucks, you know,

that you are playing your part in consolidating the fields now. But can we just stop for one second? His super PAC had $130 million in it at its height, and he needs $50 million more to consolidate the field.

I mean, at some point, it's like, dude, you can't throw money at a problem. Sometimes you can though, right? Okay. Let's even strip this out of politics here, right? I mean, the premise of the entire advertising industry and marketing industry, right? Whether you are selling toothpaste or selling Rhonda Santus or selling a Puck subscription is that there is value in

increasing the awareness of a brand, right? And that you are then likelier to buy that brand when you are at the CVS deciding which toothpaste to get. You've seen that with Colgate, you'll buy Colgate. And you see an ad on TV or in a newsletter or in a broadsheet newspaper that says, Colgate makes your teeth whiter. And then you suddenly buy Colgate. And I think there is a lot of evidence...

which marketers across the world can tell you about since you know. Yeah, I guess we wouldn't have an advertising industry without it. Yeah, there's a belief that advertising can work. And especially, I think lots of the political science literature talks about late advertising. So advertising that happens in December and January and stuff like that. And that's why lots of political campaigns and super PACs really focus on late breaking advertising.

There's also get out the vote. There's canvassing. There's writing lists. There's data operations. There's staffers. There's earned media. There's other reasons why you need money to run a successful campaign. Especially with the DeSantis super PAC, which is playing an unusually large role, putting it mildly, in the ways in which

the DeSantis operation at large is running. These things are expensive. And the other thing is, and I've made this point in some of my stories, and I know Tara, we've talked about this privately, is like raising big super PAC money is in some ways easier than raising big hard dollar money. I mean, it's more difficult to do that because the amount of money you're requesting is larger, right? If I go to you and I say, give me 3,300 bucks, that's

chump change versus give me $330 million, right? In a donor network where there are lots of people who could give you $5 million, $10 million, like Jeff Rowe going out and saying he wants to raise $50 million for the DeSantis SuperPAC.

Two or three good breakfast meetings and you're in the money there. See, I just don't... I can't imagine asking someone to write me a check that big. I just want to quote Jeff Rowe from a leaked conversation with donors. Jeff Rowe runs the Ron DeSantis Superpack. He is one of my favorite topics to cover at Puck. He did not enjoy my last podcast. He let me know it and I'm inviting him on. Here is what he told donors, according to the New York Times, in a recent meeting. Now,

Now, the good news is that we have all the money we need in this room. The bad news is it's still in your wallet.

Good line. Good line.

not a decline. Yeah, sure. I mean, so this kind of goes to the bear case, right? Which, you know, if we just let out the bull case for why you'd give money, right? I mean, the bear case is that, you know, I think we are now seven or eight years into the campaign by...

Republicans, Democrats, the media, anybody to point out fact checkers, to point out the flaws in Donald Trump, the downsides to his role in public life. And I do not think that anybody has convincingly shown how...

using money or using advertising can make a dent in his approval. And that's what makes him different than Colgate. Yeah, he's bigger than Colgate? He's bigger than toothpaste. I used Colgate this morning for what it's worth. Great. Your teeth look great. Go, go, Colgate. They've sponsored the ring. I could use a dental sponsor, I think. Well, we're pitching it live right here. No, but like there is not, I do not think convincing evidence or it's certainly debatable if you're going to argue that Republicans have to figure out how to

make a dent in Trump's favorability. I mean, you know, during 2016, you know, especially after February, March, when there really was a big influx of cash to try to take him out. Well,

from never-Trump donors, nothing really worked. His public opinion metrics are pretty stable and they've been for a long time. These things are influenced more by exogenous events like indictments which encourage Republicans to rally around him or the rise of DeSantis in late 22, early 23. I don't know. Trump seems this Teflon element to him that I think is a

pretty strong counter argument to everything I said about why advertising can work. And obviously, you know, who knows, right? Maybe there's some research that will come out that shows like, ah, yes, let's attack Trump on, you know,

He's weak on issue X or issue Y. But when you really take a step back here, Donald Trump is very popular with the Republican Party. And if you are a donor who is trying to elect somebody else, you have to change his approval ratings or make someone else more popular. And it's hard to do. I know that's a very basic point. If you're listening to this podcast, you're saying like, wow, of course, Trump is popular in the Republican Party. But that's the whole game right here.

It's beating him. Yeah. An indictment is a much stronger advertisement than a Colgate ad for Ron DeSantis. And that's why I wonder, how do you keep getting the money to flow? I actually want to also talk about the love fest between one donor and one candidate. It does seem like a romance that I would love for you to explain to me. When a donor finds a candidate, when a man loves a woman, I don't know, explain this. How does someone...

Larry Ellison, you know, fall in love with Tim Scott, who is someone like really not known that well on the national stage, kind of flatlined on the debate. I don't really see a lot of momentum behind him, but like they've had a romance going on for years. You have Peter Thiel, who was in love with JD Vance and Blake Masters during the last election. Just kind of break this down for me. What,

What happens in their head? They become just obsessed with this candidate, so invested. What are they getting out of it? Influence, appointments. They just like this person. Do they feel like they're playing a political game? I mean...

I don't know. Tell me all about it. Start with the courtship. Teddy, how do you make it happen? How do you get one big donor daddy? I don't want to overly intellectualize this because I do think lots of it is just like, you know, how do you convince anybody to like anybody? But I think it begins with access and getting access to these people. To be clear, I'm talking about the access that

candidates want to get with donors, right? I mean, it's not really the other way around. Like if you are a donor and you want to talk to any candidate, you can't, right? I mean, like, you know, I reported the other day that, you know, Steve Schwartzman, you know, had met with Vivek Ramaswamy. Like if you were, if you're Steve Schwartzman, you can meet with the entire Republican field. And he basically has because,

You know, he's Steve Schwartzman. Well, no, he hasn't committed to anyone yet either, which is kind of a big deal. Some of these big donors haven't. And like, I've also written a few times as well about Trump running off to John Paulson's new house warming and anything Wilbur Ross is throwing in Palm Beach, trying to remind his old pals he needs their money too this time around. And his people are reminding them like, we're watching if you don't back us. And he gets back into the White House, there'll be retribution. So they're all kind of in this weird state of kind of holding on to their cash and not making a play.

And then there's some of them that are just giving money to everybody, just spreading the cash around so that they all can survive. But not that much cash, not like millions, not like Larry Ellison money. So it starts with getting the access to the donor, right? And there are a couple of ways I think this happens. One of which is sort of the networks, right? So there's everything from the American Opportunity Alliance, which is sort of a Paul Singer, Ken Griffin involved organization.

Wall Street heavy, socially moderate donor table that is sort of very influential in Republican politics or can be the Koch network, which people know well by this time in American politics, or it could be the Club for Growth, the American Enterprise Institute. There's sort of all these kind of networks in which candidates get the opportunity to meet donors. Other times it's through other politicians. So like to use the

Tim Scott, Larry Ellison example. Tim Scott really got to know Larry Ellison through Lindsey Graham. Oh, right. Okay. And that like it's through other politicians who can kind of be the entrees between the world of big donors and aspiring candidates. So step one, I would say is access. Step two, I mean,

I mean, this is, again, a very basic point, but it's like convincing them to like you. Now, how does anybody in America convince anybody to like anybody else in America? I mean, the core of this is... Lots of dating, lots of courtship. I know, I'm sorry. We're talking about this like it's romance. It is though. I mean, it makes zero sense. Give me millions of dollars. I'll become president. Maybe.

Probably not. Maybe Tim Scott becomes a cabinet member in Trump's cabinet or vice president, which isn't so bad for Larry Ellison. But what if it's nothing at all? Yeah, look, I mean, the ROI on these things is awful. And it's basically always been awful. But one thing that is... I've tried to...

learn over the last decade of kind of doing this beat is like the amount of money that people are spending on this stuff is very small. I feel like, you know, speaking of toothpaste, actually, I think it's, you know, I think it's a Mitch McConnell quote, maybe it was John Boehner quote that like, you know, Americans spend less on politics than they do on toothpaste. I promise I did not set that up at the beginning of this podcast. But like the amount of money that people

that people spend on political candidates is very small compared to their net worth. Comparative to their net worth. Or even just compared to their general philanthropic budget. I think one thing that I've learned over my years reporting on this is I originally started just kind of covering money in politics in 2015, 2016. And then like

I moved to San Francisco and started writing about Silicon Valley wealth more broadly, started writing about philanthropy more broadly. And you realize that these people are putting $100 million, $200 million into their family foundation or donor advised fund every year. It's a write-off though. Yeah. It depends. But sure. Yes, it is tax deductible. A super PAC is tax deductible? No, it's not. No political contributions are tax deductible unless it's to a 501c3, which...

It's probably not really a political contribution to begin with. It's an issue advocacy or nonprofit. A C3 would be like the most political 501C3 contribution could be like a get out the vote operation to civic engagement, stuff like that. The amount of money that people are spending on this is very small. So we say, oh, wow, why would someone spend $20 million to elect Tim Scott when these people are worth...

a gajillion dollars and this is 0.000% of their net worth. And if you want to change the world and make the world reflect your values,

This is pretty small potatoes. It's about changing the world. Sure. Sure. I mean, that's like... The Lincoln bedroom? Is that what it's really about? Yeah. You mean getting invites to the White House? Yeah. Being able to sleep over? I don't have any... How many donors actually slept over in the Lincoln bedroom? I feel like that'd be like a massive scandal in 2023 standards. But like... Okay. Like, you know, when Biden was in Lake Tahoe last week or two weeks ago, I think, you know, he's like staying at the house of Tom Steyer, right? I mean, it's kind of a fun little...

When you have access, you get to be in the room. And I think for very rich people, there definitely is some sex appeal to being close to the President of the United States. There is. You get access. You get to be at the inauguration, good seats. You get to call your boy up, give him some advice, be a part of the kitchen cabinet. Maybe get a preferable business environment for whatever you're hawking, selling, doing. Clean coal. I don't know. That phenomenon is definitely true. Yeah.

like the club atmosphere or the dynamic is definitely true for bundlers and for folks who are not sure about the differences here. I mean, there's kind of the Larry Ellison types, the Shell Nattlesons or Tom Stiers who are giving a gajillion dollars to a super pack. And then there's bundlers, right? Who are the people who kind of most successful used car salesman in Indianapolis who joins the National Finance Committee for a candidate and they'll host

Ron DeSantis when he comes to Indianapolis and they'll collect $3,300 hard dollar contributions. So like not millions, but they're very valuable because of that. People who like organize the events. Right. And for those people were called bundlers. There really is that team like atmosphere, right? It's like, Hey, I can be, you know, invited to park city and I'm doing the whole thing. And I got the lanyard and, you know, I went to the DeSantis bundler launch event.

the week of his announcement, they're all got these little pins that say, day one DeSantis guy and they're wearing the hats and it really feels like you're a brat. For those people, they're really not that wealthy. I remember talking with Arditor Tara about he was asking me, who's there? Who's the DeSantis thing? I was explaining to him, these people aren't really famous. They're just normal rich people who have networks

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Another sort of wrinkle in all of this is that the Trump team has made it very clear to the big donors that they're watching. And if they start helping out rivals, you know, they're going to be cut out when he returns to the White House. And I wonder if that's why you're seeing like Steve Schwarzman and Ken Langone's this fit this one out and wait, or a lot of, you know, donors sort of spreading the wealth around like former Trump donors.

also in a way by spreading the wealth around i don't know if they realize this but they're kind of prolonging a long primary process in which no single candidate can really take on trump but that's a whole other story but like what do you think about that do you think that they're that they should be afraid of retribution from trump if he ends up becoming the nominee and the president i mean it's amazing in this age when um

you know, everybody is a campaign finance sleuth to see like random Trump people who are, you know, doing oppo research on, on, on DeSantis bundlers and stuff like that. Um, I mean, the reality is like, I mean, this is not the first time this has happened. You know, Trump, if he was, if he's the Republican nominee, we'll be gladly taking any contribution from any single person who, uh, you know, opposed him during the 2023 presidential

primary. You're right. But it's just funny, though. It's just funny watching these Trump people I know who are like, I have cracked the business empire of this Indianapolis car dealer. He has not been paying his taxes and he beat his wife. It's like, all right, you are really that concerned about making sure you have everybody on the team. But look, I think the Trump people think that this is a little bit of bravado, but

it's also sort of true is that this Republican primary is not competitive. Um, and that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And if you are wasting your time with, you know, the Nikki Haley event in San Diego, like what the fuck are you doing? Like, this is the, you deserve retribution because you are, you know, resisting the will of the voters. And like, there's a little bit of chest thumping and, and, and this,

The sense that, you know, you've got to be on the team or, you know, you're making a mistake. But I don't know. I mean, like, I would not call the Republican primary competitive right now. Would you? No, definitely not. And actually, the debate made me think it's even less competitive than I thought.

But I still, like, I hear the desperation and the voices of the donors I speak to. And some of these are very big donors and they just do not want Donald Trump, no matter what. And they're willing to just throw money at him. Well, what are they going to do about it? They're trying to make toothpaste happen. Yeah, I mean, the sense I...

I pick up is... And I feel very nihilistic about life, but... Everything. I mean, you're on the most nihilistic pod of all time. Yeah. I just feel that there is not a...

strategy for stopping him at this point from the wealthiest people in the world. And that is weird. I hear lots of... The lizards haven't figured it out. Yeah, right. Well, I mean, it's like, you know, I mean, Coke, for instance, has raised a good amount of money and they've talked about how are they going to try to organize anti-Trump consensus.

But I don't know if there is an anti-Trump consensus. I mean, it really depends. They also really like Glenn Youngkin from Virginia who's not running. Is that the strategy? A guy in a Patagonia vest? How much of the strategy, Tara, do you think is about

kind of pre-Iowa consolidation. Because I do feel, you know, like it's interesting, you know, the Romney op-ed that was written, very, very into the sausage making of when candidates drop out. And you wrote a story in Puck this week, sort of looking at this dynamic about how candidates might never really drop out. I know you were talking about that on the podcast with Matt Mowers the other day. The Romney op-ed was talking about

the need for donors to push for consolidation. I think it by late February. That seems too late, by the way. Right. Sure. I think they have to do this by November. I think I've got to stop now. Actually, Bloomberg had a headline saying anti-Trump Republicans are actually helping his 2024 path by scattering their cash. Yeah. Yeah. Or, or the, or the, you know, it doesn't make the point that the, you know, governor's new, new New Hampshire, uh,

when he talked about a similar idea, there needs to be consolidation, he was talking about it this year. And I do feel like it is a this year thing. I agree with Sununi more than I do with Romney that, you know, I think if Trump wins Iowa, this is over. Whether or not Trump wins Iowa depends a lot on how many other candidates are in the field. And if there is, you know, a bunch of people at 8%, 10%, mid-January of 2024,

I kind of feel like this is over. So we shouldn't even go to the caucus. I just think these next couple months are going to be very interesting to see if anybody drops out before they have to, right? No, no one does. They never will. And the real reason we're talking about this is because they don't have grassroots support. That's why we're talking about super PACs. That's why we're talking about donors. Because none of these guys are really raking in the cash to keep their campaigns afloat. Say more about... You feel like that...

these are sort of astroturfed political candidates who don't really have an organized natural support base? No, I mean, that's why Rhonda Sandis' campaign is so cash-starved. Like, yes, they burnt through the money, but they also didn't raise enough money at the same time.

I'm talking about small dollar donations, hard dollar donations. I don't see them getting these huge fundraising hauls. Am I missing that? Maybe Vivek Ramaswamy has gotten some money. Yeah, I mean, he's self-funding. $15 million of his own money so far. I mean, yeah, I mean, the DeSantis campaign is overwhelmingly dependent on, at least since first quarter, on bundled hard dollar contributions from donors who have maxed out. I don't know. I'm just very curious to see if somebody is at

5% in Iowa in December. If there can be a consolidation that happens before Iowa that convinces that person to drop out. Because otherwise, and I know you're really fighting human instinct here, right? I'm putting myself in the shoes of

Let's say we're in the shoes of Doug Burgum, right? Nikki Haley. Nikki Haley, whomever. Doug Burgum. Doug Burgum. Okay. Put yourself in the... Let's do Doug Burgum because I like his eyebrows. Put yourself in the boot of the broken ankle, broken Achilles, or whatever.

Porn Achilles. Of the Achilles. Of Doug Burgum. How rich, right? Like if you're sitting there and you're like, hey, I just spent, you know, a hundred million bucks on my money, right? You know, I think I'm the greatest thing since sliced bread and I'm running for president of the United States and I'm having a good time and I'm at 5% and like crazy shit's happened and you never know what's going to happen. What's going to happen with the indictments, blah, blah, blah. You're sitting there in Iowa, you've been running for president for, you know, upwards of a year. Like why am I dropping out of the presidential race? Like let's just go a couple more weeks, a couple more months.

even a couple more weeks, a couple more days. Let's just have some fun. Let's roll the dice. But I do think that the dropouts that happen in, say, like December could have a big impact on who the Republican nominee for president is. And unfortunately for, you know, the

consolidation hopefuls out there. If you're Burgum in that scenario, how do you convince that guy to drop out? He's kind of... He's rich. He doesn't care. Yeah, but running these people... Building his brand. I guess I'm feeling there's a sunk cost emotionally to... If you've been to 63 counties in Iowa over the last eight months of your life,

Like, are you really not going to... And God is telling you that you're supposed to be president. I feel their pain there. So... Do you think they're also thinking I'm setting myself up for 2028? Really depends. I mean, who knows what's going to happen by that point. But sure. More to your broader point, I mean, you want to be relevant and running for president makes you relevant. And why drop out before Iowa? It's like, you know, showing up to every football practice and then not actually playing on Sunday, right? I mean, you're wasting... What's the fun of doing all that if you don't get to...

see the votes come in. But I do think that there's a big difference in consolidation, in the promise of consolidation if it happens in December versus happening in February, which is the difference between Sununu and Romney. Teddy, at this point, who is the biggest donor get? I would say Paul Singer. I would say more broadly the AOA consortium. Singer does choose people. He chose Rubio in 2016.

I want to say it was in November. And I think he will... It's informed speculation. I think he will choose somebody eventually. He whips his network hard. He can make $10 million, $20 million contribution to SuperPAC. He can get the other pro-Israel, center-right, true social war types to...

you know, do the same. I think he'll go for Nikki, right? Don't you think? I mean, I think there's clearly people in, in, in East Singer orbit who are pro Haley, I think it's fair to say. Um, but you know, he hasn't done that yet. Haley is, is the most kind of traditionally hawkish person in the field. Maybe, uh,

alongside Pence. And Israel is the issue that matters most to them. I thought Haley's answer on abortion during the debate seemed tailor-made for Paul Singer. I'm not saying that in a conspiratorial way. I'm just saying it seemed like the sort of thing that

Paul Singer would love to hear. So I think he is the number one get out there right now. And Steve Schwartzman probably after that, I would say. You would say Schwartzman after? Why is that? He's held out and he sort of flirted with Ron DeSantis because he gave him a lot of money when he ran for governor. He's got a lot of cash to give, right? I mean, don't you think Schwartzman's another one who's sort of dangling this carrot stick or no? Yeah, yeah. I mean, he has dangled it, right? Because I mean, he said at the very beginning of this campaign publicly, I think, I forget.

I want to say it was in 2022, even, that it's time for the Republican Party to move on from Trump. And he did an interview with our colleague Bill Cohen this week, where he talked about how, not quite so explicitly, but talked about how the Republican Party, how we need better options in politics. And I think the fact that Schwartzman, who obviously was a Trump ally, decided to go public does sort of suggest

this dangling carrot. You know, he doesn't need to say that. He can just think that privately, but the fact that he says it publicly tells you something. Can Langone? He hasn't committed either, right? Langone was a DeSantis person at times. I don't feel he is a big enough player in terms of the amount of zeros at the end of the checks. Oh, really? A little stingy. Okay. Strike him.

Tell me who's the most love struck donor for a singular candidate. I'm thinking back to like Sheldon Adelson and how he gave $20 million to Newt Gingrich to basically run around the country like as a pontificating machine in 2012. But who's the most love struck donor for a singular candidate? Sure. I mean, I'll take Ellison here. I mean, I think Ellison is someone I've been writing about for the last couple of years pretty closely. Everyone I talk to about him...

He's a very emotional donor. He feels strongly about Tim Scott because he loves his story. He thinks that

you know, American politics needs more love, more, some more love. Yeah. Which is funny because Alison's like kind of an angry person at times. Oh really? Yeah, sure. I'm rereading one of the Larry Alison bios that was written in the early two thousands. And, you know, he's kind of a heated guy at times, you know, but, but Alison, Alison is, is very emotional. Like he's very emotional about Rubio. He's very emotional. He loves BB net Yahoo. So he's like, you know, he's very involved in Israel policy these days.

so much so that Ellison has been kind of a bit character in the Netanyahu corruption trial because he got like, he's just very close with BB. So when you talk to people about what does he see in Tim Scott, it's not like a belief that, you know, Tim Scott is right on capital gains tax. It's just like, oh, he just loves this guy. So it's real sweet, real sweet love story. Who's the most promiscuous of all the donors? Just spreading that love around Harold Hamm.

Harold Hamm is a good example. I mean, I think that is a typical move of

you know, a very industry driven donor who is, you know, kind of doing this for some pecuniary interest or another. Oil. He's an oil tycoon and he used to give to Trump and now he's getting, he's maxed out to Nikki and Ron DeSantis and probably give to Trump too. Right. Sure. Yeah. But I think you see that lots of times with, with donors who are, you know, really pushing the line of a particular industry, right. Where they want to, you know, have less regulation on fossil fuels or, you know,

less regulation of crypto. It's all about business environment. Right, right. And so it's, you know, and that's, that's a situation where you'd want to give to as many people as possible. To everyone. Keep your name, keep your name in the Rolodex for the possible next president of the United States. It's the kind of advice your lobbyist would give you. Just give as much money to everyone. Sure, sure. And we'll, it'll be Gucci.

Thank you so much, Teddy. And I want to keep you on because to finish off this show, I wanted to talk about an item in Axios' playbook, which is something that I wrote about at the beginning of Trump's term about how he is constantly fed a diet of flattering news stories, articles, tweets, media appearances. Yep.

And I wrote about this early on, how his team would just sort of give him a packet and be like, this is the news of the day. And it was all very positive to keep him up, uppers for Trump, because positive media is a high for our former president. And it's just funny to me to see that he's still they've maintained this. And I'm pretty certain it's a Jason Miller operation to keep your boss happy, managing up.

But it's interesting to see all these years later, the guy still can't handle the bad press and needs a daily dosage of uppers in terms of flattery. Does that strike you as something you should have grown out of being president of the United States where you fly on a fancy plane and have military salute and everyone's standing in your room? Are you surprised that that is something that Donald Trump did not change about himself between then?

2017 and today? Not really. I mean, he always had a tender ego, obviously. Um, and he needed to be coaxed. Very temperamental is what my sources told me. And it was always just easier to work with him if he felt like he was on top. But I'm sure even more so having lost the presidency, it's not so often that incumbent loses. Um,

he probably is still just as temperamental and dealing with all of these legal issues. So not totally surprised, but think it's kind of funny that this is a reoccurring story that keeps coming round and round and round about the management of giant child and possible future president Donald Trump. To what extent do you feel like

Trump as a candidate is better or worse. I think you're probably going to say mostly better, but better than he was in 2016. To this point, though, we're saying, oh, he still needs the positive news stories. Do you see... I'm not asking about the Trump campaign. I'm saying Trump himself. Do you see a more disciplined candidate? Do you see...

a better messenger? Do you see that person better working at the room? Like, how is this guy different than he was eight years ago? I think, yeah, like with anything, you get better with it. But I also think his team maybe is better this time around because people are joining, having like people who are like real hard-hitting people

political pros like Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, even Jason Miller, who was always a strong operative. But I think having a small team... I mean, I'm just surprised the fact that the Tucker-Trump interview that was already filmed didn't leak out. I mean, I broke the news first about it happening, but I didn't know that it was already taped. Do you know what I mean? And that... If this was like...

a few years ago, it would have long leaked that it would have, it would have leaked weeks before that it was when it was taped exactly when it was taped as it was taped. Probably. So he's sort of like figured out that I think he has figured out his operation and the grooves. And I think seeing DeSantis unable to figure out his operation is interesting because it makes Trump seem organized. Right. Right. In some ways. I was struck by in that, in that Jeffress story you mentioned the other day where it's like,

Do not leak this. And then it leaks, which are the best leaks. Yeah, which is basically a facet of covering Trump. It was the leakiest White House ever. Right, right, right. And you have not sensed there have been that many, like, holy shit leaks of the 2024 campaign from Trump. No, I think his team is really tiny. And I think that's part of it, too. Well, that's bad for us. Good for them. I know. And all the books that have come out, I mean...

I think he's also obsessed with like ultra loyalists at this point, and he's probably gotten to know enough people. It only makes you think that the next, if he does become president again, he could really have a huge amount of power that he knows how to wield. Whereas he wasn't so good at wielding the power the first time around. It's like the first time you're president, you're never really good at it. Right. Which can be frightening for people who are dreading a second Trump presidency. I mean, in some ways, like Biden kind of got to know the ropes having been a

a creature of Washington being the vice president for eight years. He probably knew exactly what he was doing day one, right? Trump had no idea what he was doing. He was just passing insane executive orders drafted up by Stephen Miller that were always being leaked left, front, and center. Huge hodgepodge of people, RNC people, campaign people, random people. It's not like they had the pick of the litter in terms of hiring people there saying, we're the adults in the room trying to stop the chaos. I doubt there are going to be any people like that. And I bet

Whoever he picks as his VP is going to be like a not so loyalist. But I think that his team has also figured out like, we don't really have to campaign that hard because we have, you know, no one's really making us campaign that hard. None of the people in the field have really made him step up. Don't you think? Well, I mean, I mean, you know, I mean, that's sort of shown by him being able to skip the debate, right? It's like, he does not feel like he has to, he does not feel like he has a competitive Republican primary, so he can do whatever he wants. Yeah. He's acting like an incumbent. Right.

And we'll see. And he's not wrong. Yet. Perhaps he's not. For now. Because somebody's got to win. I don't know if that makes sense. Well, Teddy, thank you so much for joining. As always, you have the best insights, stories, analysis. I am certain you will be my cousin Sal and be on the show with me often. Especially since we're colleagues and...

Hopefully soon we'll be sitting across from each other in a new puck office. No pressure, John Kelly, our fearless leader. I hope you're all coming down from the holiday weekend. And I hope you all feel like you know a little bit more about the giant lizards that are giving money to our future candidates, possible presidents, and maybe how they're just throwing it all away. Because just because you know how to play the stock market doesn't mean you actually know politics. And that's my biggest takeaway from all of this. Sure, let's go with that. It's the entire...

entire premise of everything I do and cover. So the fact that people don't really know anything and, you know, easy, easy co-sign on that one. You can be really successful at something, make millions and even billions of dollars, but that doesn't mean you have any clue about politics. See you next time on Somebody's Gotta Win on Thursday. Please rate and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.