cover of episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Reassuring signals?'

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Reassuring signals?'

2025/1/27
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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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@Paul Donovan : 我是瑞银全球财富管理首席经济学家Paul Donovan。中国12月份的工业利润增长,官方数据显示利润率大体稳定。这与中国向国际市场倾销大量产品的情况不符。倾销是指出口商故意亏本销售以试图主导海外市场,这与稳定的利润率显然不一致。当然,这并不是说某些特定行业不存在倾销行为,但似乎并非普遍现象。 今天德国将公布E4商业情绪调查结果。鉴于当前民调数据容易受到政治因素影响,且调查响应率低,这项数据的现实意义不大。然而,德国长期以来都倾向于对其实时数据(包括情绪数据和现实数据)过于悲观。目前的问题在于,即将到来的选举是否会改变这种悲观情绪,或者这种悲观情绪是否已经根深蒂固。 美国也有商业情绪调查,这些调查也肯定受到政治偏见的干扰,尽管达拉斯联储制造业情绪评论部分的措辞总是值得关注,可以了解这些所谓的客观调查结果的偏见程度。美国还将公布新屋销售数据。住房问题正在成为许多国家日益关注的经济问题。 住房成本是年轻一代不满情绪的部分原因,住房相对难以承受也影响着储蓄行为。周末美国移民和关税政策的现实情况可能会让市场略微松一口气。特朗普总统关于驱逐大量移民和公民的承诺,令金融市场担忧美国供应链可能因此中断。投资者预计不会有太大变化,虽然现在还为时尚早,但这似乎确实如此。除了在宣传方面,特朗普似乎并没有比前任美国总统拜登在移民问题上做得更多。 然而,这种宣传可能会造成对驱逐出境的恐惧,从而扰乱农业就业等领域。同样,周末对哥伦比亚的关税威胁很快就被撤回,这表明某些贸易关税的威胁言过其实。然而,美国政府的关税政策确实发生了转变,一些贸易关税似乎更有可能长期存在。

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Good morning, this is Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. It's seven o'clock in the morning London time on Monday the 27th of January. China's industrial profits grew in December and, on the official data, the profit margins seem to be broadly stable. This has some relevance outside of China's borders as this sort of profit activity is not consistent with China dumping large amounts of product into international markets.

Dumping goods involves exporters deliberately selling at a loss to attempt to dominate an overseas market. And that, of course, is not especially consistent with stable profit margins. This isn't to say that dumping might not be happening in a specific sector, but it doesn't seem to be happening generally. Germany releases the E4 Business Sentiment Poll today.

This is not a great deal of real-world relevance, given the politicisation of sentiment data and low response rates that any survey request gets these days. However, Germany has long had a tendency to be too pessimistic in its real-time data, both the sentiment and the real-world data. There is a question as to whether the prospects of an election might start to shift that particular pessimism, or whether, in fact, it has become too entrenched.

The United States also has business sentiment polls which are definitely subject to political bias, although the language in the Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment comments section is always worth looking at, just to get a sense of how partial these supposedly objective survey responses can be. New home sales data is also due from the States. Housing is becoming a growing economic concern across a wide number of countries.

Housing costs account for some of the disaffection of the younger generation, and the relative unaffordability of housing is something that has a bearing on savings behaviour too. Markets may possibly get some relief from the reality of US immigration and tariff policies exhibited over the weekend.

US President Trump's pledges to deport large numbers of migrants and indeed citizens are a concern to financial markets because of the disruption to US supply chains that this would entail. Investors have assumed that not much will change and while it is early days, that does appear to be the case. Trump does not seem to be doing much more than former US President Biden did on migration except in the area of publicity.

although that publicity may create a fear of deportation that disrupts, for instance, agricultural employment. Similarly, the threat of tariffs against Colombia over the weekend were backed away from relatively quickly, suggesting that for some trade taxes, the talk should not be taken too seriously. However, there has been a shift in tariff approaches by the US government, and some trade taxes do seem to be likely to be more enduring.

That's all for today. Have a good day.

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