Bitcoin Will Skyrocket To $200K Regardless Of Who Becomes US President | Macro Monday
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There is one topic in one topic only worth discussing on monday, november fourth, and that is the election tomorrow. I'm looking forward to not having to discuss this topic every day, but we have a long history of looking at what markets do after elections. Spoiler for bitcoin, they go up massively every single time so far.

Will this time be different or will be going truly skyrockets to two hundred thousand or even higher after this election cycle is finally through? I've got James might and dave here to discuss this and everything else on what I anticipated, one of the more explosive macro mondays of all time. Let's go.

One is up everybody. I'm scot malka, also known as the wolf of all streets. Before you get started, please described the channel hit that like button going to bring on the squad. Now, although I do not approve of dave White burgers jersey today, max were stopped with .

the skilled and lucky st .

Victory in the history of formal one. I've we get into that sorry.

got IT was intentional.

I know I was I going to get people dicon triggered on monday before the election.

Well, you coin around to the company that I found that is uh that we have investments from both um by bit and O K X. So you know we have to new goal opportunity.

That's right. You get to be fair weather .

fans for the best two teams.

Election tuesday tomorrow I mean, IT, it's finally here we've been talking about IT. IT feels like literally for months, if not years at this point. What's coming? Mike, as James ask you right before the show, what's the temperature right now at bloomer? This is like the super bowl for journalists.

right? How exactly is we live for this? Even for traders you live for this. You want to be able to tell the story from the future is how well you did. No, notably, but it's not always the case.

But I think that some of the comments from on a wong, this more profound SHE thinks her base cases, we might not see the final result for least two weeks. We all know if the lesson we've learned, if you don't t both for trump TTS fraud. So I started coming out in the headlines everywhere.

But some key things I think they came out from her comments were um her you know honest, been early. Some see people SHE she's been wrong in the recession, but we're tilting that way. And the key reason they they find with the best the closest on this not found parol SHE said, was not because of herky because SHE seen weakness and business services temporary services drove the weakness net heading lower. The actual employment weight was four point one four percent tis he thinks next month is going to be four point two and continue to go higher. Um and there's a universal agreement among the economist that trump equals inflation.

I would actually I would kind of temper that. Um I think that trump equals inflation. I think although calmo also equal is inflation. The problem is that you know um commons policies tilting towards the inflation reduction act and Green new deal and all that garbage. It's just you know we're talking about inflation is not really productive and um spending is not not as productive.

So the issue here, um I think mike, is whether or not we have a sweet if trump sweeps completely, then you then you really get about the inflation. That's what the markets have been kind of saying that that um over the last few weeks, they've been worried that trump wins and sweeps. And then you've got this inflation trade, which is you're just watching in the ten year to the thirty year treasuries that the yields are spiking. Well, they've come back to earth a little bit with the with the polls this weekend that are muddying the the the picture which say you know it's likely he won't have a total sweep is what the polls are saying. So you know um the week get into the the actual usefulness of polls as we've seen.

We're going to find out last the .

last three or four election cycle, we've been kind of stilly.

But James, can I give you some background for your talk on inflation? Just yes, something slightly trigger ing maybe for for people here you go .

this the I not to hit that might .

hit thirty six trillion by the time the election comes around tomorrow.

The one thing I need to push back, well, I just looking at you and the headlands already trump starting pushing back on fraud and and the election, which means he's playing that loser. You can do play the winner if you're going but what he's doing that ready but he think if hair selected, almost all the polls and leaning things for the congress are republican. That's a classic check and bounce, you know, bring back the days you and I remember.

We all remember very well. They'll be a natural preventive republicans to push back and any type of spending they'll come back with that austerity. I just it's natural way to do this. So that's one iteration that I think the market is has a Price for yet. And we've will see it's also just my sense I was in the corn built last way out and trump hair to the science are everywhere, but compared the last time is a lot more hair science. So i'm sense .

yeah i'm so I got had the finish .

my again I said if we have to assume that will have the recovery sleep and my base cases we're onna get the haris president and then the revolving congress is .

interesting is my base case is the opposite of that. But um and and i'm in a swing state here uh you're not but i'm in a swing state here that the last I reported this the last time that we were on last week, I think i've got now IT was nine believed trump signs around me last week now fourteen and and and it's crazy because the last and there is one harassment and the last election IT was for I can store by bin science and four o trump science so it's just whether not votes have actually change or come out that IT it's it's OK to be for the republicans and for trap and at that that stick man is like a kind of washed off I don't know, I I I can't say because I haven't talked to the neighbors directly about IT, but IT is interesting. It's an interesting data point.

It's a tiny, tiny, tiny dad, tiny data point, which is the most important thing we can say about all of these polls is that the we're talking about data that comes from just a few hundred, a few thousand people and it's you know the amount that the survey size and demographic is really difficult to to get a hand on. But like you said, markets do. And this is what for our listeners.

This is really what's most important for for our experience as investors. Markets do like the checking baLance and they and having a split between congress and the White house has been important for markets to keep that spending in check. If there is a trump sweep, the spending kind of goes out on checked because now you've got here what another thing we have been talked about.

So Scott, you brought up that uh the dead um the the deck clock, which basically, I mean the amazing thing is we we spent one hundred and five we borrowed a hundred and five billion dollars in the last day of october um I tweet about yesterday forgetting that was sunday and thinking that was IT was saturday kind of work all weekend but um hundred and five billion dollars in a day. I mean this spending is scotland is is unbelievable how much spend is coming out of watching right now. We don't have a dead ceiling and we're not gonna a debt ceiling and we're going to have a show down in january about IT.

So the question is, does IT so this is where IT comes down to? Do we have visibility? Who is the president quickly if there, if trump t does win, I I mean good luck getting A, A, A debt ceiling agreement, a budget agreement before january.

So this this is an important topic that what happens because you do you are staring down this uh taking uh clock again into january. And so you know the markets want a split and that's they're telling you. And um you know typically the the funny thing is and dave away in on this, but the when you when you look at markets and typically if they're running up into an election, the incoming is is likes going to be elected. But this time IT has appeared that the markets are expecting trump to win and high at the market family for yeah i'm so I go i'm saying we .

don't haven't to come in technically. I mean, I live you I live in like a very little blue dot in north central florida where they spend a lot time every because of obviously a university town and anechoic ally i've seen like four Harris wall signs and is a very blue county and they're all you know people who I happen to know are like seventy eighty year old people's yards and there yeah they do right 我愿意 you're .

in you're in a university county and there are sugar liberal.

you know ah yeah well, let's take a look really quick. My I just want to bring this up because these have been all over the place right now. Polly, markets at fifty eight point five percent. Trump, I was as high as sixty eight, you know, a week or two ago, I think dropped about fifty six earlier today cause now fifty five, forty five, but as low as fifty two, forty seven yesterday.

Alright, the market we started IT came up one. Ah, so I got to ask one .

question about that. Party market is a small market, cat market. I A sense you can be somewhat ipid. My question is, is not a statement, is I just look at IT is having banding the trading pits on understanding human nature of traders. If if I can manian that market with small modern money and make big money in labor's oppositions in bitcoin and bonds, which are related to what party market doing, i'm going to be doing that trade. Not that I would, but i'm sure people are doing that trade to making money, that striving .

the whole thing, but that is definitely.

yeah, I just want to make one other point, and that is the question I have for every boys and office, is how much is what we just point out is Priced in. If you put that dead clock and most of the rest of world, particularly china in europe and canada, is just as bad. So I like to point out two point, one that's a ten year note.

Yim in china, a hundred and thirteen basis, two hundred thirteen basis points below the U. S. The average of the top five countries in the rest world, about a hundred basis points below the U.

S. In terms of ten. So understood. It's a no known to get the debt that socks everything is not going anything, but a particular is trm selected, but there's a certain of its Price. In particularly, we start tilting towards a little bit of that recession that we're not getting because we're getting seven percent tips spending.

right. But mike, you are a boundary for a long time. You understand that the term premium that we've got that is in the these bonds now is just reason because the ultimate terminal rate of the of the fed funds rate has has gone up from two and a half to three and half in the matter of weeks. So you know.

I I I look at IT is a some of the bitcoin and cover everything is okay. The bond market yells can stay high as long as dark market goes up. We haven't seen that test.

And that's a key thing from from my college, gina. He does expect the U. S. Stock markets can have more of a problem after.

This is very rare for the senate, but the rest world should do Better after election. Because what you seen is a pair y correlations in mountain to use is preceded the last ten percent correction. To me, it's a test.

Let me see a test. Panels are high bit. Can I coper hanging and out there? Because the stock market, I, if they can stay high, sir, we haven't seen that test. That's the key thing is so her key point was the rest of the world stocks might be Better off, particularly things like china because their earnings are actually picking up.

So last point is to address the Polly market a question. So you do have wealthy people out there and traders and investors who are using those markets. And i'm not saying they are used them to manipulate. But if you know that way back when um we were using, I can remember what the market was called.

But IT wasn't mainstream like this, you know was not easy to do like this, but we were using as markets of persons heads against you know um presidential Victories and IT meant that we knew that if one present one vers another, that would damage our book and that would damage our earnings, which because we are all getting paid on on end of your bonuses, as you know very well know and all you guys know and so you know to place a ten thousand dollar or fifty thousand dollars, one hundred thousand dollar bet on one of those things was IT was like while you're just hedging yourself, you know because if if if the present that you that you were set up for was going to win, then you're going to make multiple of that. And so it's just basically a hedge. And that was and that I believe some of that is still going on, especially with the hetch funds.

And now the hetch from can do IT just for their books. It's not personal. They can do IT for the whole book, you know.

And so it's it's interesting. Do I see heads funds doing IT? no. But do I suspect that some smart ones might be doing some of that, especially personal?

Absolutely A H hundred percent. I agree with that. I don't think it's funds that are doing IT, but I do think that there are individuals who are heavily trading bitcoin with size are very long time that are participating in polar market yeah what that means for a Polly markets of reliability, I have no idea.

But dave, since we're going to jump to a bitcoin, I just want to show a couple of quick articles and then let you jump in because there's eight a lot of bitcoin ts going to do this, big coins going to do that article hitting in the last day too, which makes sense. Burnin raised its Price. Big quant Price as me for haris win to fifty thousand keeped trump at eighty and ninety K, I believe that's by the end of the year.

Big point traders brace for fierce Price swings as clock tics to U. S. vote.

But then my favorite, which is this one frequent likely rally after the u. Selection, irrespective of who is history shows. This is where dave, I want you to run in the second. That's where are title, you know, bit more headed to two hundred thousand dollars in my opinion a regardless um maybe the path or how long IT takes could be different but we do have a long history here which a lions have said with the having cycle two thousand and twelve um let me just show you to check I mean, you can see the elections circle here and what big one Price did after elections. So IT would be the first if we see that crash.

Well, I think that people need to understand they're been a bunch of misconceptions put out so far. So and I think in my tongue, the first one has to do with the notion of of of uh of a gd lock in washington, we we do not have two homogeneous parties. We have one homogeneous party and one Francis's party.

And IT was amusing all year along when the republicans took fifteen tries to nome the speaker, and we went through the this ridiculous eo theatre. IT is obvious. Republican party is very, very far unified.

Uh, and they were told they can governor. They can do this. They can do that. But the reality is the holding party is not unified. There are why a few tea party small government types in there who will barf at that the kind of spending that, uh, trump wants to do.

There will be it's not going to be easy, uh, with a slim majority now yeah, if they got this for some ridiculous and all the pulsars are on republicans and two third majority in the city and house a course, okay, at that point you would have uh the ability to govern but you know easily but there is literally no chance and any zero that if the republicans quote, sweep and have a narrow majority in the house, in the senate, that there will not be bipartisan deals to get to get things done and or deals to get done even within their party. So that's just strait up fact. I hate to throw ice water on what people are saying, but they they are thinking about IT from their own party perspective.

The democrats had their moderates, you know, people like josh got hyper and or the new jersey vote for that abortion called no of bill. That effectively is the Green new deal. Now I know there's no way in hell that he actually supports that being a new jersey and knowing, you know, some of the projects and things that is spending and the inflation that IT was likely to cause, they were told to do so.

The whip, the majority whip or the the party ips and in both parties are different. I mean, the we in the cypher that will love the majority whip on the house for the republicans being tomeo. But tomeo does not have the ability to get these people in line and were close to the way the democratic.

That's the number one. And that by the way, that's not you can't even argue that you that's a basic fact. So now I ask yourself the question where things going to go. I have a theory. My working theory will see whether or right or wrong is that a trump win is short term back for stock market, a short term good for bitcoin, short term probably bad for the rest of crypto, is IT go drops down with the stock market, but ultimately is extremely good for the cyp to economy, and also in the long run that that would be good for the stock market. But people, you need to see IT.

And that basically exactly what happened, happened less than trump on markets, went to bob and then went off on an epic rally up to the cobo, uh, because people really don't know what to make of his policies are where things are going. And that's not terribly surprising. Now koala is different.

Um I think in commonest case, stock markets rip. I think bitcoin ribs and the rest of cypher is like. What the hell in biton dominance goes off the charts and breaks out to the outside because in her administration, choke point not only continues, probably accelerates excEllence days.

Crypto u is still is being forced offshore. Bitcoin is accepted. And the inflation that's likely to happen by if he wins and sweep uh unconstrained spending, would be insane。

Now if SHE wins and the republicans win the senate and the house, then you get to a situation where spending will be sort of this kind of under control. But they're onna have to give up stuff in the history of the republicans to be born has not been good when IT comes to restraining. So I think you end up with the situation where the where the markets are happy because you know traditional markets are happy.

They think the ability to kick the can down the road will continue for at least the next four years. And by way, in both cases are base cases, were can kicking right in order to actually solve a det GDP of one hundred and thirty percent, where unfunded light buildings taking up over two hundred percent, you can kicking or you're doing things that are dramatic. Uh, the only one might do something dramatic, but I doubt that would be elon department governmental efficiency.

But even there, as James will point out, you could take to stress expanding gandy. And unless you have down budget, unless you unless you you trigger a wave of economic growth that we haven't such as we haven't seen before to you, you know silly language that comes from from mr. Trump uh yeah in the short run, you're you're going to have, uh, ballooning deficits no matter what you do.

And and in fact, you can got a lot of heat for this. But he admitted that what they want to do will probably be a one step back before the two step towards or the thing, and got a lot of heat for IT. So the truth is, does the election matter a lot for the traditional legacy markets? I would argue in the longer in in the intermediate term, probably not.

We're still going to print. We're still going to create and they have intentional inflation of asset Prices, which will wind in the wealth gap and keep assets moving in the direction that people want things to move. Uh, the real question of the economy is whether or not we're going to get this this concentrate ration of wealth by government via I E.

Working with the biggest companies to advantage them by mountains of regulation, working with the bigger companies to censor people, working with using bank regulations to choke off industries that the hidden many of the largest of of the largest industries, such as Operation show pointed centra, that really becomes the the biggest economic. And i'm not sure you we're going to a lot of volatility. I am not sure that we're going to know the real direction until we get past the january nonsense and political theater, which is going to be lutie. This could be finger's pointing like this. And we actually see what this senate and what this house and what this White house is going to do when the people are in the city.

That's that's fair here. Bring up the chart I just shared, Scott. So this is this is A A bloomberg chart that shows the blue line is uh is that the big Price and the White line is is the trump percent that like the likelihood of trump Victory, right? And h they're Normal like yeah on Polly market. So you can see that even though they're both pretty volta. You're kind of moving together and .

so sure we get was clear that what I was .

yeah so you can see that kind of that like just on a visual a mean of uh that of both of them kind of line right up. It's it's interesting. So um I would expect that if trump win, there will be a strong rally in bitcoin.

You know that was that that's a kind of base expectation. Now here's a funny thing that we all know about bitcoin. If you expect that in bitcoin, don't don't set yourself up for I .

think from a trading .

presented party Price in that .

was yeah agree and my we've talked about this on here and and other shows. But you know when you when the market is already pricing a certain now coming you gentle yet to sell the news event, that doesn't mean like top. But you know if it's a red sweep and that's what the market thing is the most bullish thing and that's what their Price are you? And would anybody be surprised if we see a thousand dollar candle to the downside on bitcoin that by the way, bouncers back in a week to.

I mean, before I put this background for a reason, if IT wasn't for free, peanut, the squirrel, uh, the market, a bit of the egypt to markets were getting hammer. And so the peanut, the squirl story broke. And people thought that this was a mean that was gonna matter. If you want to understand the absurdity of markets, you know, capture, that's that's, that's the absurdity. I mean, 我。

but that that is interesting. People are like, why does anybody care about a school? That at the point, the point is you.

my wife, I was there with peanut, the squirl. But also shows something that's very important if you take trump out of the equation, take his personnel out of equation, and let people understand the difference between government controlling our life and government not controlling our lives, yet a very different outcome. In fact, the only issue which camera continues to hamon is the one area where moronic republican want to control women's lives, right? It's literally IT on every other vector is not a question of which of which party is interested in leading people alone, but on the issue of control, that a big issue, I mean, with absolute issue, this election would be an absolute, you know, 所以 会不会 let's talk about that .

for a moment because i've ve had long conversations with people about this。 This is calculated by the republican party. They they push they they pushed abortion control back the states and they did that for for one main reason.

You you had an up a deluge of of um californians and people from the west coming into texas, in particular in Austin, in texas. And last election was kind of crazy how B2B to was clo se all the way up to the end of the, you know, the election night. And the reason they did this was very calculate they need to keep texas.

If you lose texas for republicans, it's over like you'll never win another election. And so they know that pushing into the states allowed taxes to, you know, overturn rovers way there. And then they're they they're able to kind of have that as a firewall. But having that as as A A national now a national issue is that the that's a reperusing of that. I mean, that's just reality.

So it's it's dios, but it's a reality. I say the oic that, you know, say what you want about trumpet and there lots of things to be said about trump, right? That that are non complimentary. But the one thing he absolutely did, and if you read the natural review, which I do a casion, uh, you will know there were were dozens of editorials in natural review in all these conservative regs, yelling about the fact that he pulled the pro light plank out of the platform and said, at a national level, we no longer are going to discuss this is seta.

And when push, if he was going to actually have a nurse standard that would include some level of protection, you won't want, say, IT, but we know this what he believes, and certainly exceptions for rape in set and the life of the mother up until any time. So the reality is it's not a national issue. IT really isn't.

But IT is because IT mobilizes voter. So in reality, IT is from the perception, because perception is reality. That perception is kind of weird. And the D V said .

jd vans had very, people want to understand in the platform, understand what they, how they are thinking events. The fantastic answer on your world about this and IT was a long answer. IT wasn't twenty seconds.

He want they went to this for like ten or fifteen minutes of really discussing the issue, maybe really discussion issue and I and where they come on out. So but you know IT IT is interesting and and it's been IT. That's been a major .

problem for the platform I made. I'm sorry, you always get taken at the context is that you could get a bite partisan agreement. You could, if you wanted to pass a rule that said under all circumstances you can abort defeat if IT is the doctor determines us to save the life for the mother, full stop yes, that you get by partisan support for that in an instant.

Neither party has an interest in promoting IT because there are on political reasons which which by the way, makes me sick and IT makes me sick. Y, because that makes me angry at both parties. You probably could get, in fact, if we held the national referendum, you would probably get protection to, I don't know, somewhere where western europeans, somewhere in the range over most countries are. Some are probably around fifteen weeks, which is very similar to rope and protection for uh you know rape nested etra and massive federal object malarias. To significantly longer that we we need Better clear.

we need Better we need Better laws around this. And ah right it's .

the reason of mentioning this is you could get to six plus percent of americans to agree on common, sensible things like that. That's what you can but neither party no well yes and no um that's true. The problems we don't get to vote that way just like can crypt up we don't get to vote for you know people were single issue cyp to voters.

It's unna. We heard a lot about that four months ago. You don't hear a lot of that today because they don't really exist, right? The ones that if you are a single ish egypt of vote and you believe that, that we need to digitalize air markets, then you have no choice of in.

There are truth is, is there are very few of those people. Uh, I I don't know, i'm sure I know a few, but it's really not that many. The dynamic in this election, however, is really fascinating on so many levels.

I mean my mental in school, uh doctor data or f ski who for those who who don't know, he was he he barely wrote the book and argumentation debate and was a and promoted something called rta ical history, taking the history of the times based on speeches. And he would find this election to ten, twenty years from now will be fascinating, because effectively the rhetoric c is fascinating IT IT is totally divorced from what people are actually care about in many respects. And it's it's, it's on so many levels, such as, can you read from the teleprompter .

and how can be interest intend .

twenty hours now, right? You neither candidate is going to be able to do much about much deposits. Both candidates have issue of areas within their their platform that are likely to be that will cause uh, that death clock to get worse.

So the base case for bitcoin is going to be, you know fine, right? You know fine because you know, IT is protecting wealth. So the question becomes, where will that investment go? Well, one candidate is for defy and self custody and personal freedom, and one candidate is not.

And does that matter for bitcoin? Not really. Because if you have, listen to all of us, all three of us have said that the major driver of bitcoin Price over the next, you know, several years is gonna quote, institution al money, institutional money doesn't a toss about self custody because .

I get to push back and the time for a little push back, the base case of bitcoin in is not preserving wealth, is creating wealth, are still at that stage. The base case are gold, is preserving wealth. If you know how that works, if you want to create wealth in history, you concentrate in a certain, you just hope you're right.

Small business when you create that wealth, you you migrating put into safer as its like gold. So to me, that's still my base case. If Harris wends, I think golden drop ten percent and at some point we'll come back the bottom.

Ines, what you said earlier, if you expect the stock market they go down and be going have the highest correlation with the stockbroking and a sixty bases on the way up, ever expect bitcoin to come out ahead? I say good luck with that when I wanted see the proof and that's the bottom mine to me is a completely neutral, unbiased position outlook person here. I have no position.

I just want to get that right is I see volatility and the stock market extremely low according to cording to gene Martin, valuations really high. And I see the the bitcoin to glacial al tricking down. I see the stock market really expensive.

I see bonier s really high in a global basis. All you que typically also Spark for reversion, typically that so IT works. And at some point, even for copper, I don't see copper on anything but going lower.

That starts still in lower. I don't know how the election going to work out from a pure market. Show me the big show me the proof for big point out performance market. When we just at some point when we get you know bit point, we ve actually kind of get into a Normal level in the stock market valuations, Normal ized in a little bit, maybe S M P five hundred getting close to one week movement average. And then i'll see how big coin looks until then. To me, it's more likely this basis source in a race three times of about to a goal and next me five hundred is more like that to be the leader and the risk is still probably down.

okay. So now let let me take you two statements and use them against each other. The first, the first statement, which by the way is accurate, uh, is gold is to preserve, well, quick in to create wealth in.

The second thing is right, he is. But here's the reason. The reason is bitcoin is entropy after me an option, right? If bitcoin get to the critical mass, oh no. Because after that, the investment thesis for bitcoin and the money that's going into .

bitcoin in 在 no that .

the investing pieces of every people .

don't believe you go to a typical wealth。 Conference and they are happier with the Q I mean.

I go to love them. I understand. And i'm telling you that the people in in all etf providers, you get right down.

What is the difference? I want to out. Matt hogan is only going to talk to people who are willing to in interest in business.

He, he makes a statement time. I like to talk to man like matt. You think anybody take a meeting with you if they weren't interested to listen your product? That's what he's missing.

Sometimes it's a hundred percent fruit. So the question one asked to ask and but we are really getting to the truth here. The question one has to ask is when really critical, massive investors decide they want to start getting interested and start taking meetings.

And we all know what that requires. That requires number go up, right? That requires people understanding that we and number go up basically requires a cup, one or two major uh, wealth funds or sources of wealth to move in.

I think those are happening. And the real question, will number go up enough to get that interest if that interest happens, IT becomes a self filling province. When, you know, cco, let's pick cisco.

Cisco, uh, in the early nineties, was ten times cheaper for connect connectivity and cable drawing system. But IT was a small company and people like, well, a kicker of that much, that fast. And they, they, that league got preserve.

They kept building new products. They kept getting there eventually. We all know cisco, over that decade went up absolutely blue way.

Any coit was correlated. IT was a people traded cisco versus cable, tron system, cable and system, the beat basket companies that compete with IT. What happened or what happened was cco and a couple of other companies ended up one hundred times times more valuable.

The cable transistors with the technology was Better. Now I am. It's a bad analyse. Gy is this is not going to end up a hundred times school.

Uh ten x maybe if you believe in a bitcoin stand, but forget but conviction yet to that level with enough critical math? Yes, and that's the issue. So yes, you're absolutely right. If in this cycle we don't get to people thinking there's critical mass, then you may very well be right.

I just tend to think that the elements of critical as IT, whether it's corporate putting you on the baLance sheet and in a corporate world where we have copycats of of the Young and you see what microstrip gy is done, I think that that highly likely, whether it's sovereign well funds and sovereign countries, and we see russia and china, both legal, you know, allowing mining and know what the mining is going into government coppers. Whether IT doesn't matter which factor, you look, there is lots of reasons to believe that those things could happen. That's the first.

Think about trumpet with the election. And the only real difference between trump and kala is far as bitcoin is concerned in the election, is this notion of the list, bill and he. And don't forget what I said. I think whoever wins gonna to govern in somewhat bike parties and people like roll cona or on board with allama spill and so that gets you to a far that that financial st matters. And so that's that's what that's why trump is so you so tied to be qui protists the rest very big reason.

It's wonderful. It's wonderful how he took him by the Scott and I A lot of us talked about five years ago, finally you figured out the base layers a door. I mean, it's just curious, you know, they are like a convert.

We get IT. But day day, I just want to see the proof I completely agree with in some things. But in that of one thing, as a reform day training, I suspect some you guys aren't having watched the tapes since the a been a day trade. You just watch the text and i've been seen IT for too much every time I M P takes down. Big is the same, but hard of the last in the big.

I I get IT from west point too. But it's just .

the key thing is it's famous. Fifty fifty percent corrections. It's really expensive. The stockers and these things can be pretty nasty. It's also the things i've learned.

I've only heard that a few times of my life in the peaks and late ninety nine to peak in two thousand and seven is everybody is in for longer. I mean, to hear everywhere, just the human nature, the human nature of this space is really dici. That's why, like the point is outside analysts who's complete and vice, show me the proof and i'm seen the proof the opposite still.

So so for people watching at home, just to understand when the reason I identity, the reason I was not in, as Michael saying, that is for a very simple reason. James and I kind of struck and said, there will be a lot of volatility.

What mike is telling you was what what way of volatility 不高， that will generally snap back against the grain uh, and and Scott users sell the news sort of stuff, but the fact speculators major reactions to most news of us, ten to be more, it's the fall through that matter. And so that's i'm not trying for words in you and I agree and we and I think really important point for people to who are trading to understand people are signal. Why is bitcoin, which was just IT was over six, nine thousand.

Why is the eight thousand? And say, okay, very mean, you know, we are where we are and the speculators are still in control. In fact, today, I would expect in every financial asset speculators to be more in control.

why? Because investors are waiting to see what the is gonna a happen. Hand up where they before they before .

they they make their finish that .

sitting to, you know your obviously running a hedge fund. I was spoken to quite a few of my hedged fun friends in the past week or two, and most of them, including guys, say the biggest kind of a shop, saying they literally have a Harris plan and the trump plan, not confident that their hairs plant or trump are correct, but they've been said the boss says, I need to know what i'm going to do.

Depending on who wins as a short term and long term strategy. Do you have a bifricated strategy based on the election tomorrow? I mean, you're more obviously.

it's a it's a good question being on a bitcoin standard in my head phone, meaning our cashes in bitcoin. Um we are very level to a uh a trump Victory at this point because just naturally that's that's what the underlying is. Um I am not extending that that more because I think that trump is going to get elected. It's just the reality of the fund. However, we I do have put spreads on and the put spreads on S M P and and nazi and some other things just because I know that if there is a surprise, the downside, I can head against that a little bit.

Now not if you have a plan for the volatility, but it's not necessarily based on who wins.

loses. That's right. I have a plan for the volatility, not put the put .

based on the election .

result is right. But let's go. So go back going back to what they were saying, what what, mike is kind of intimates that we've gotta get to the point where you have true institutional adoption of bitcoin, not just hedge whipped around this thing, but actual institutions and maybe corporate chargers that are not trying to become the next microstrip gy, which are small companies that don't have, uh, a lot of growth, that are looking to use some sort of cash flow to build off of and use their treasury. That's a totally different thing.

We've got a microsoft vote coming up december tenth and people are getting all kind of roughed up about IT. But the reality is you people need to understand. I just you know the reality of of corporate voting in this country comes down to the companies and institutions and endowments and you know pension funds.

They earn way too much stuff to be in there reading all these proxies in figuring out how they're gona vote. So they they outsource that voting to services like iss and I S S. Basically says we're going to a vote along with whatever management says, the board of directors and whatever they recommend, we're going to go along with them unless there's a clear reason not to something like a proxy battle or emerge or something like that.

And so you understand that until you get a board of directors whose recommending that, so you first have to get IT on the slate and get IT on in the proxy to be voted on, and then you've got to get the board to say that they recommend for owning bitcoin in the treasury, and then I S S will go ahead and vote those proxies for you. But until that happens, you're going to have like you're gonna have to have an activist come in with a proxy battle to create that situation. And it's I think it's A A long time off.

It's not this is not onna happen tomorrow. Could IT happen the next year? sure.

Is apple going to come out and say we're going to take our hundred billion dollars and dump in the bit going? No, that's not going to happen. It's just not going to happen.

But you could have a smaller company that says, hey, look, we we we recognize that there's there is massive inflation coming because bitcoin, one thing you that is, is very difficult to to argue against bitcoin is is closely correlated, the expansion of the money supply. And if we believe that there is going to be expansion from the money supply, bitcoin will follow IT intend them. IT takes IT takes about three months, but IT does follow IT almost lockstep. And so if you believe that, then, then you could have smaller companies say we're going to put a little bit of treasury in there because we don't think we're going to be protected with a long bond and because we don't want term premium and and you know the fed is lowered rates down to three percent, that's not protecting us.

So I I I want to push back a little bit on that. I don't think there is anything to do with corporate directors sit talking looking at them to I think that's how funds Operate and corporate directors look at IT, much simpler. And I will never long.

I N S T.

yeah. Long island blocked. Next time you see, here's why this cycle. Could that? Let me let me frage IT differently. The next bitcoin bull cycle, whenever IT is, if IT exists, if IT will be significantly larger than people expect.

And the reason for that is if bitcoin starts ramping up and you want your stock, you and every corporate board is incentify, not every, but the vast majority incentives, the stock options. You will see a heard of people say, wait a minute, if I put five percent of my catch on the baLanced, my stocks going to go up. I'm not talking about it's going to i'm not say corporate, the corporate treasures thing will cause bitcoin to rape.

What I am saying is if went to hundred and fifty thousand and people started and IT was on the front page and C, N, D, C was talking about that, even the bloomer get to cover IT, uh, corporate George are going to a, are going to have to, uh, look at this and the ones that do so first, it's game theory. Prisoners is the lama. Game theory, the if you got.

if you bring up if you bring up the the searches of bitcoin and google know that it's down, it's time OK.

But I I can push back .

on that since we say push back so many times on this shelf. Yes, I think that I think that you'll naturally see a reduction in google searches for something that becomes more mainstream because less.

How many, how many of how many your friends who have been on the fans have been calling insane? Hey, is this is a good time to bye.

Nobody asked me about crypto or bitcoin at all period ever.

Yeah, I say it's been it's been pretty consistent. In my case, I don't I wear logo shirt out. Our craft logo head has bitcoin. And in a syria to like mental manipulation .

you're drawing and into people look at that and .

they ask your question to that. So i'm terrible indicator, uh, if what I get. But my point is that there is is the the microsoft is vote no, corporate major boards are going to vote no.

The ability of corporate boards to goose their stock Price. If pitou looks to be an asset that's rating is an accelerant, it's not the Spark, it's not even the fire. It's an excEllent and that all but that that like here, which is an interesting one because IT allows for might to be completely right and then to be wrong. I E, yes, we could go down big fine. And then IT starts .

moving higher. Good is in trading IT. That's the problem. I mean, how many people successfully pick the bottom of of both the S M.

P and in in twenty twenty and they will you .

take away at IT?

But I mean, like you, you going to be do you sell all of your do you sell all of your risk? It's and wait for that draw down? No, you can you think that's that's just not .

a good that's good. In fact, that's not what people do. I, me, look, I don't want to name names, but I, I have probably had, but I probably had a dozen conversation with Normal people who are feel perfectly happy, content and wealthy because .

they're for one case yeah right.

And we're there to be a massive drawdown. Uh, in the stock market, the pain would be intense. Now I thought about five percent here.

I mean.

you know, the gets .

pain that .

right now, the government, both parties are well aware of, and therefore they become expert in can kicking. And that that really been the thesis, the whole thing.

And so, you know, we talk about this a lot, but you know, IT really IT really becomes, is monetary modern monetary modern monetary theory, uh, really running the the way our government Operates? And what would change that? Would trump actually change that? That's an open question in mind. I think that he wants interest rates lower for longer. I think it's entirely possible that that's not true, which is another another that .

would just exacerbate the deficit spending and lower interest is executed the problem. And mike is on IT, and it's true. I mean, I read this this morning and let me read this off of of this quote from from the financial times article, the bottom forty percent of income now account for twenty percent of spending, while the richest twenty percent account for forty percent.

The wider gap on record and and it's and it's likely to wide, you know and so the issues, you've got two economies here. And so direction spending is is you know it's kind of it's a luxury for the the wealthy and uh and so is optimism for them, and that's basically the the premise of this article. But the reality is that the lower demographics are struggling to afford food and gas and you know Carry so is incredible.

I I got a bill .

for insurance. IT doubled for my for my kids. The current turns doubled like insane amount of money. You know, we're talking about massive amount .

of money here for cost in one period.

in one period. Now everybody knows you're got a switch car insurance companies in order to to play the game. But ridiculous, you know I don't know how I don't know how some people are keeping up truly. And that's the that's the by vocation economies that makes has been talking about for a long time.

When does that come to? When does that chicken come home to roost? When does that happen? And that and that's the question on everybody's mind, is that is that really going to because you see the economy, when you look out there and you see the numbers, it's kind of rock and along in a lot of areas.

I mean, there is no doubt. And and that but that disconnect is something we've been talking about for six months. And the reason this election is the way IT is in the look if the economy was as good as them as the averages state, which is, of course, waited towards the wealthier people, if the economy was that good, this would be trump would have had in zero probity.

This would be whoever the democrats put up the B. D. company. They would have actually.

if the economy was doing that. But of of over seven seventy percent people who are are uh survey say that they actually is head in the wrong or the country is head in the wrong direction.

That's right. And so you you're looking at that. That's why it's different.

So this by placation matters and that's why elections are are what they are now, who they helps, right? What matters? You know, it's funny that my favorite tweet about the election, and I just have to say because I I loved again, the favorite one was elon tweet, if nineteen ninety five built little more running today, he would be labeled to either republican.

And in that, in the reason that that matters is because if you think about what his policies were, he was the last present to baLance a budget. He was the, he know he passed the, you could argue that he was bad for many reasons, and actually personally of archias bad for many reasons, but he was the one who got the crime bill past. He wanted abortion to be you know, famously uh, available, you know, safe and rare, uh you know which was common sense ago.

He wanted common sense of immigration policies at seta. All of those things are, what if one thousand eight ninety five built running? You'd have to be a right running for the republicans right now.

But he would win now. And that sort of thing would matter when we start talking about the economy and people being left behind. However, zero interest rates are below market.

Interest rates for thirty years has created enormous distortions. I for economists, I praed IT simply. And when I say this way, I always gets like our interest state policy has prioritized capital over labor, both parties dating back over thirty years.

And when you prioritize capital over labor, you get all sorts of interesting distortions and that, that we've had. And so we're in that market. Do we do any of us think that's onna change anytime soon? I would like to thank you. I think you too .

much what can even change that that you talk about a recession coming and depression coming greatly, said all those things poor fuck their way yeah .

well the the long bone is saying, no, he doesn't believe going to change, right?

I don't believe it's going to change. And so the the question then becomes, you know, how do you invest in? Where do you put your money? Uh and you know, we talk about that all the time. I think that next week will be really interesting. Hopefully we have an answer and we can start formula strategy and stop saying if if, if, if, if i'm tired of saying if pire forever again.

what's the path of that actually changed so well.

that's why like they always everything is mean. It's a lot of good discussions. We have to look back from the future. There is a big iteration tomorrow.

And the way say, regardless what happens in the thing, you have to look back from the future and it'll say, yeah well, we had this whole cyp to speculations the most significant performance as in the world. I've got the U. S.

Stock conseil with the U. S. Stock mark, and get into the most expensive versions, GDP in one hundred years, most expensive versus rest in fifty years, most expensive versus commands in twenty five years, most expensive verses ago and seventeen years.

And then you look back from future, said, yeah, what was the trigger we had some reversion was a big in signal. You know that the idiots get you know the people just think it's can go higher, higher like they did twenty nine yeah, they always happens in history. The key point is maybe can.

That's why I look at its every day, oh, please start market stay strong. But if you do what's Normal, then everything trickles done and what's gonna. I just look for trigger.

And that's why i'm seen in as a comedy person. I see nothing but global recession introductions, gold up forty percent verses. Everything else are down, specifically cruddy coppers, the next big signal, right? So I look for the signals. I'm waiting for the proof.

And I just think from the future, at some point we're going look back and say, yeah, you've probably every lesson in history when the stock market gets a two times udp japan, china, U S, in the in the one thousand nine hundred and nine, you not post to avoid risk as is and is actually very low yes, what he want to do, overweight risk as its big coins of risk of us, at risk on as that goals of risk of us. And treasury bonds, to me, still might be the next big trade. James, you've been spot right on that, but we will see what happens with by next tomorrow.

And sometimes if all my best indicators are typically the glows in the idiot wrong for a while, then some point of flips over. I'm just hoping that stock mark can case case strong. And then from the future I can say, yeah, I was wrong. We stayed at two times. Ddp even went higher.

Yeah, but we look at where we are in dead to GDP right now.

Say the same thing i've been hearing the same thing since I was on the cover of the time to nine.

The recent matters much .

different OK I get and is .

because of the interest payments.

And so yeah, when you when you have over trillion dollars of interest payments on the on an economy that generates four point nine trillion dollars, the tax revenue and is already spending on deficit spending, like you are spending on Mandatory you know programs over four trillion dollars, then you've got defensive a trillion dollars, like where? Like how how can you allow for there to be a recession? Where's the money? Onna come from this? This only blows the dips IT out more like, I agree.

But there is precedent for very high dependence in very low ways. Japan.

but japan has japan. Let's understand japan, the postal system, and the way the retirement system is and the way the population is. They were a nation of savers.

Now partially, it's a legacy of world war two. But in nation of savers, we are a nation of spenders. We have literally enacted policies over the last thirty years to encourage people to spend.

You know, I I, I used to get tired hearing the american consumer is resilient. No means is no american consumer, any consumer. Wants to be to consume, if you, if you let them, if you can really prefer credit, people will buy stuff and and they will consume.

Japan is is A A very interesting social experiment because we don't know where I will go. But the simple fact is they have a declining population of savers, right? And eventually, you know that that that that elon's big thing about population, and he's not wrong, uh IT IT does matter. And so as lots of all their macro things that going and japan has and control corporate drive about china.

two point one two percent, you know, china is going the same. This in japan.

uh, china is to and and I I am sure that they really wish they didn't have their one one more in place for as long as they did. You know, talk about roots that maybe the single we we talk about you you love to dig the point about how know when you lie on one person or you know their policies are going to be ft up and and they're not going to outcompete us. And okay, it's very new ones, but you make that point of the time. I well.

that's what's happened. trumpets. Elective will will be back to one person is a shift in .

american of history. We we've been playing .

nice in the same bus R.

T the bec J D, and at tonn of other people who he's listening to, we don't even know who writes the words that commute reads on the teleprompter. So I don't know who's running the country and the country under under Harris with trump.

The one thing we know is you don't convince literally one of the world's spartel most most important people in terms of developing technology to that to support you and to be part of your administration and say, this is trump dictating, like, see, this is different. He wants his legacy. That's what he is looking for.

But you can something like the coast to say, this is the unity party. I mean, this is we're talking a classic liberal who from california, yes, he has a lot of money that has very important causes to say this. I'm sorry, but facts are more important than our opinions. I, me, yes, trump is a big personality and trump cares of that. Trump.

you put me out a more of opinions. There's a lot of people pushing back on this person. So let me just tell one thing, the book at war with ourselves by hc master, former general and former national security and bias trump point IT out, complete autocratic leader.

If you get a second term and to be nothing but, yes, men. And it'll be as significant as any place in history to expect from a person who's bolin. That's just a fact what he pointed out, that's what's gonna en with that next term.

That's what they don't understate that human nature. But remember, it's everybody is that is again, it's not gna matter by tomorrow will see if we need to understand that with the checking bouncers will be gone n which is maybe finish part of the base case. I'm very bosh gold, but I might work in a long short term.

The key thing people are in need to be point as a geopolitical situation here for go is unstable unless z tills backward. The two things I think people are missing as we have two, he evolved which trump supports unfortunate and russia which he supports. He evolved this regime of ran in and um in north korea, both who want nuclear weapons to cozy up to to russia who has nuclear weapons you need to understand to me that that killed, which is why i'm still variable as go and I don't knew .

that stops at OK. I I once again .

I ran you at times disable .

staying craft under trump and has tens, if not hundreds of billions .

that by buying rules no.

I I I understand I understand your thoughts make masters as a gruntal disrupted .

employee fifty percent of the the x um .

in cabinet leader the single political leader the highest turnover in her staff that ever been measured is the democratic nominee ninety two percent so please.

you know it's a question of what he he was not nominated SHE was selected okay.

this selected you're right. The candidate, sorry, but he wasn't IT is IT is very, very simple, will find out tomorrow. And god knows we would all be happier if we weren't talking about the personalities of these people.

Yes, 当然 we can agree .

that we we just have .

the election .

over with and next。

But if there is no answer, uh, I know you know, I I am from hoping for more, more, more screaming .

I M I that she's .

wrong, that she's wrong to that would .

be terrible for the country.

She's usually right. She's been spot on the last four, five calls she's made.

So yeah, you have my head in my hands. In fact, we don't know who want they are. I mean.

there's also the case that you know one side declare theyve, one in the other side declared ers.

They're yar people. In fact, there's a whole thing on power market about that holy market will only resolve. The answer is when fox and CNN both say that that what happens what .

happens when we go full out gore, and like, I remember sitting there watching our gore when the election, people celebrating and sudden had hanging chats from George, was brother down. And for that, and the election was stolen, I reversed, excuse me, and we got George bush as as the president. But I mean, what anybody be surprised to see CNN declare Victory for a Harris?

And is that .

surprises other?

I wish that I can say the answer. I think i'm with James. I I think anything is possible. And god, god, no, say. I I hope that 到 上海 one way， the other, a clear win for one side is Better than terminable uncertainty. Well.

i'm voting for peanut, the world world and we can discuss whether and .

I mean pet for .

peut um that's all we got. I I have feeling we're going to have a crazy conversation like I could even look. I could think I can.

So a way out day with that. So perfect. We all deserved.

P, T R, I P, P, T R, I P. Today's macro, monday until next week. Guys, that is all we got.

I hope we have a winner is amazing show. See you guys next time later. thanks.

对。

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