A Guide to Election Night 2024
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After two years of campaigning, more than a billion dollars of adverse and the last minute change to one of the nominees, the twenty four race for present is now in the hands of the american voters. This is the most important election that i'm going to vote in. In my adult life. I think, you know, walking up here made me emotional because I look at her daughter and I know that i'm voting for her future.

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I guess we just have to way and .

see today as the ballot counting begins. My colleague name offers a guide for how to understand tonight results. It's tuesday.

november five.

Nate, Michael, thank you for coming in. Thanks for having me. Happy election day.

Happy election day. Can you believe IT? I can't. I can't really either.

So that we are here today to do something we started doing last election, which is offer our listener's a road map to election night, because starting around seven P. M. Eastern tonight, everyone's screens are gonna flooded with votary and breaking news banners about projected state Victories.

And it's confusing. And so we want to give people a users guide to the entire night with you as our guide. So guide away, guide us. Well, let's to .

start by observing. There are three basic n areas for what could happen. And keep this in mind as we go through the chronology of the night. Because a different points we may know different things, depending on wood, is really going along.

though our guide begins with scenario.

And one thing I want to note about these three scenarios is that I think they're all very plausible OK. In fact, in each case, I think we could tell ourselves after the fact we should have seen IT coming along, one scenario is a decisive Victory for gala Harris, a repudiation of Donald trump. After all, he had an insurrection.

On january six, the supreme court overturn rovers. This wade. Democrats have an over performing in special elections and ID term elections. And common hair has been gaining certainly over the longer stretch of this race, back to when unsure biden was the democratic omy. If in the end the race broke her away, IT would not be a great surprise and SHE could win a decisive Victory.

Clearly, in the popular vote and in the battle ground states, a second scenario is the total flip side that a the size of Victory for Donald trump, the cultivation, really, of the populist realignment that he unleased in, and sixteen, in this scenario, the White working class voters who we want in twenty sixteen, sticked by aside. But now he adds to at the black working class and the spanning working class and Young voters that's a scary where he wins the popular vote, the first republican to win the popular vote since two thousand four. It's a trump sweep of the seven battle grounds, states unlikelihood.

I just want to point out that for either of these two first scenarios to be true, the repudiation of truth, big haris Victory, the trump regnant big trump Victory, the polling that you have been intimately involved in for a year would have to have been systematically off to a degree, either systematically underestimating her support or systematically underestimate his support.

That's right. And it's worth noting that IT doesn't take too much of a systematic are either way, for the quickly look like a pretty decisive Victory. The bulls are basically tied everywhere after all, right, move that three points to the left, three points, the right things feel really differently, really fast, right?

That said, if the polls are right and IT is really close than we have our third scenario, which is yet another really close election, all of these swing states are decided by one or two percentage points. We have to stay up all night to count the votes. Obviously, there are a lot of different versions of the scenario. One, we're trump wins nearly one, we're Harris winds early. But either way, we have yet another election, Donald trump on the ballot, yet another close election.

Basically the the scenario is a repeat of the grinding slog that was twenty twenty presidential. Yes, it's closest hell and we don't have not comfort at sometime you've got OK. These are going to be useful touch tones, I suspect as we turn to the question of how obvious is gona unfold tonight, hour by hour. So walk us through that as well. You can what you want to start.

we start in myself. Where are the polls will close first in north CarOlina? Floria, virgina, ora ra and most of florida and georgia, and seven thirty in north Caroline.

Polls closed there. And well, you might think after the way the vote count in twenty twenty that I could be a week before we know anything there in these states. We're gonna a lot fast.

We could even have race calls in all of these states, even in a fairly close election by midnight. Someone, that's because the number of new ballots have plumaged some. That is because the state have improved their procedures in all of them.

The early vote will take a little bit democratic. The early vote is usually counted first. So Harris could come out to an early lead in north CarOlina. For instance, trump LED hope to counter on election day.

you are hinting at something that I think we all remember really well from twenty twenty, which is the concept of the morals, which is to say that the minute the polls close and the tales begin to appear on our screens, they start to misrepresent a total outcomes actually based on democratic early voting numbers, which tend to be high, versus election day voting numbers, which tend to tilt towards republicans. So you're thing we're going to immediately start to see either red or blue marois of some kind.

yes. That said, I do want to note that there will be a lot less morose than four years ago. They get between the early vote and the election day.

Vote is ploys to be significantly reduced. There are both fewer democrats participating by mail and more republicans excited to turn out early in person. And the combination of those two things has significantly reduced the .

democratic c advantage in the early void.

thus made the is a little less.

more OK. What should we be looking for in terms of winds, losses, calls for trump or Harris in these key southern swing states? That will start to give us a feel for whether we're looking at scenarios one.

two or three. So in the repudiation, Harris is probably leading in north CarOlina and georgia from the start. And by the time nine P M, ten P M rules around in that election day vote is coming and she's still holding, maybe she's a little more competitive in florida than people assumed in Virginia, is a comfortable Victory for her.

Got IT. In the trump y alignment scenario, these states may not be close, and we could have relatively early calls in georgia and north CarOlina in favor of trump. He could win them by multiple percentage points. Virginia looks much close with democrats hoped, and florida a landslide. In the top of scenario, we may still find that those states are tosoh by nine or ten pm, and we have to wait to see the exact election day turn out county by county before we're able to make a call in those states.

right? Which of the southern states should we be watching most closely during the first wave?

Georgian, north CarOlina? They're really close, and they make a huge difference in the electro al college math reminder, you need two hundred seven electoral votes to win. If comm. Harris cannot win either of those two states, then her road at two seventy gets very narrow, very quickly. SHE would need to sweep michigan, pensylvania and wisconsin all likelihood prevail, or pull off an upset in arizona, which we will get, we will get to, but that would greatly narrow her pathetic tory. Conversely, if Donald trump loses north CarOlina and georgia, his pata two seventy looks really chAllenging at that point.

because he would have to sweep all the other states.

And worse for him, those have been the states where he intended to pull worse the cycle. So the outcome of these two states will not only tell us a lot about the overall picture was happening in the country, IT will begin to greatly narrow the range of pads to Victory for the two candidates.

Okay, let's talk about the next regional wave that will come after the south. And as a reminder, keep us on a kind of evening clock ker.

So around nine or ten P M. Right around the time when it's becoming quite clear what's happened, georgia and north CarOlina, we will start to get our first clues about what's happening in the northern battleground states that so called blue wall of pennsylvania was conn in micron.

The states that by in one in twenty twenty .

states that by in one in twenty twenty, the trump one in twenty sixteen, unlike the southern states, those states are not going to count their votes, especially fast. We're going to be watching to count there in all likelihood, all night.

Let me to ask you why. Why is he going to take middle? Stern is longer to count than the south. Presumably they all have the same technology.

Well, they're not necessarily using the same technology, oddly enough. But there are two broad reasons why the north will take on her. One is the different laws about male ballots.

In some northern states like pennsylvania, they can't begin to even open the male ballots until the morning of the election. In the southern states, they can begin posting those ballots well before election day. As a result, florida can have all its male ballots process and ready to go when the polls close pensylvania walmart.

So it's a simple as in some of the southern states, the minute that the voting ends in the evening, those male and ballots, they're in the count. And in place like pennsylvania, they may still be opening the male. That's right.

And this is where the technology to hardily winds up being relevant because there are actually huge differences in the technology available to different counties. And the way they open envelopes, for instance, that's done with the machine, some machines can open hundred thousand balls as an hours. I open twenty thousand and .

what .

a country in each county is doing IT differently. So that can create very different rates of counting male. That is not only by state, but even within different parts of the state.

And how should we be thinking about who wins, which of these northern and what is going to mean to our two seventy two win math?

As I just mentioned, if trump winds north CarOlina and georgia probably needs to sweep all three of michigan pencil way and was gone to prevail with a very narrow electoral college majority in that same scenario, i'm guessing she's not winning these states and blow out either. So we could take a very long time to have an outcome. If Harris has one, north CarOlina, CarOlina, then Harris can afford to lose a michigan or was constant but .

not been unless .

he makes up for IT with the battle laon. Um but no there then we have a lot of complicated scenarios where a lot of different doors are open.

So you just to close out the north when, as best you can guess, will we have calls in these northern states.

So the answer varies a lot by state that you have different proceedings for how they count their votes. I will say michelin n wisconsin are Better. Those states, I think, a call in the early morning hours or early the next day, very realistic.

The one with the most uncertainty, pencil vana, as I mentioned, this is the state where they can start opening their ballots until the morning of the election. So all of this comes down to just how many of these enelow pes they can open and how many of these ballots they can process. Twenty, twenty, they didn't get even close to counting all them on election day and took us a week before we had call.

Think there's a lot of reason think it's gonna much Better than twenty, twenty. I don't know. However, if that means they count seventy five percent of the mill vote or ninety five percent of the mail vote, and that will make a huge difference in terms of whether we will know the outcome in pennsylvania on election night.

right? And of course, pennsylania is potentially the state we will be waiting on for an overall converse, especially if, as you previously told, Donald trump sweeps the south yeah.

And it's worth remembering that Harris is the canada who leads the male vote.

So male, not as in men, women.

but an up male baLance. As a result, if they can't tabulate all the male ballot on election night, then triple have more and more of a lead on election night in the result gets more orgy. The more of those ballots they get through, the less morose IT gets in. The likely we are .

to know the outcome got IT all to say. Compared with the south, the north is likely to be, in many scenarios, a bit messier and a lot longer.

That's right. I think that if someone's winning incomparably, we could know by the next morning. But if it's really close, then that could take days.

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Okay, need for back and we need to cover the next and I suspect final face of swing states tonight and when we're gonna things .

yeah the final phase is the west, which we will be watching for weeks and weeks to come, weeks, weeks unlike the northern states and the southern states. I think the count in arizona and nava, california and so on is going to be just to slow as IT was four years ago.

Um I don't remember how .

I was years well took a week to call arizona and one pretty decisively and they still couldn't call until saturday. And then you may recall in the twenty twenty two mid terms that the house was not called for nine days as we wait on california. I think all of those timeline, ines, are still plausible in two .

and twenty four and i'm gona guess that has to do with some combination of the time difference there as well as male and ballot counting rules is all about .

the procedures for counting these male baLance. How many male ballots will arrive after election day is one huge variable in va, ta and california, whether they count any mae ballots that were returned at drop boxes on election day, also a big variable. That's one thing that keeps their own own and going.

So the bottom line is, well, we can imagine scarious s where states like penciling IT in all their male ballots by polos. It's not going to happen in arizona and almost all of the vote in arizona is by mae. So where does not going to have the full count?

It's not gonna en. Okay, walk us through how the western states fit into our two seventy month yeah as well as are three scenarios based on what we've already established in the south and in the north.

So there is some good news here. If you could choose two battle ground states not to know the result of on election night, you would choose nevada and arizon. Why, no matter is the smallest IT only fits into the electoral math under a pretty narrow set of circumstances, such as in particular, a scene where Harris a loses pensylvania but has made up for IT partly, but not completely by winning either north CarOlina a in georgia.

Then he needs navaja to make up for the three electoral of gap between pensylvania and north CarOlina and georgia. fascinating. So that's an arrow scenario, but it's one work really matters.

Arizon is a larger battleground state, but it's not a very large battle ground state. And of the seven battlegrounds, arizona is the one stay where a candidate seems to have modestly clearly. And that's Donald trump, who is about the polls by three point.

As a result, IT doesn't lum as heavily in our thinking of either can its clearest path, two hundred and seven electronic votes in a close. And right, there are two other reasons why it's important that the west will take a long time to comments for this. One reason is the house.

The house promises to be very closely fought, and there are a lot of contested congressional races in washington or in, alas, california, non swing states and non swing states, but with lots of swing districts. So if the house is relatively close, we're not even to be close to making a projection for overall house control and till the male ballot that was counted. And again, that can be days or weeks.

The second reason that IT matters that the west takes so long account is the national popular vote. California is going to be Harris largest prize in the electoral colleagues and should win the popular vote there by millions of votes. Those votes are not going to be counted on election night. And so if the national vote is relatively close, let's say Harris only going to in the end, by one point, trump is going to lead in the national popular vote on election night because those western male and ballet haven't been counted yet.

And that, of course, would have real implications for his growing and false claims of election fraud. They would very likely feed into him, potentially even claiming Victory. Premature ally, absolutely.

IT would be used to cast a double on the results in the battle ground. States of hypotheses. Ticals herri had actually won the battle ground still trAiling in the national popular vote. And then if there is a doz ultimately take the lead in the popular vote, whether that's hours, days or weeks later, that will also be used as a sign that the democrats were trying to shift at the end, in the same way that in twenty, twenty, the slow count was used to. So doubts about the results in states .

like pennsylvania, in all these scenario, there will be a kind of red merage that would eventually turn slightly blue, and that could create opportunity for some serious confusion.

That's right. National popular vote. You should expect a modest red march.

I do have to say. And I say this from a comfortable position here on the first coast. I don't hear any talk of a march here.

I don't hear any talk of big delays. Well, i'm not saying we're Better or worse than any the other region of the country. I'm just saying.

you know I to tell you that new york city, we did a terrible job counting the vote in twenty.

twenty and kind of always deal yeah it's it's .

been pretty vader. I don't know if that's the insult would be throwing at our friends at west.

Fine, I want to ask a different question about the chromosome gy of the night. Let's assume for just a minute that there has been some level of systemic polling air and IT is going to be a decisive win for either club or Harris. Perhaps some of these delays were talking about then don't matter as much.

And when do we expect to get a full race call? If it's decision? Are we talking before? To use an example, the next days daily comes out at six A M A. Yesterday morning. Yes.

in scenario, I think that the count is fast enough for a clear Victory to be called on election night, like an obama twenty twelve style Victory where you win the key states by four or five points. If it's closer than that, of course, that could take a long time, obviously, okay. But if there's a clear Victory in the southern states or in the northern states that we should .

know on election night on behalf of people at home wondering at what point in the actually it's gona be really close scenario. Do you say to yourself, go to bed, there's no call. I mean, remember walking around zombie like in twenty twenty because there wasn't a call on tuesday.

There wasn't a call on wednesday. There wasn't a call on thursday. There wasn't a call on friday.

IT came saturday morning. I was in a car driving on the highway I luckily had my microphone with. But like, you know, we waited, we waited. And IT was genuinely a ride.

Pensylvania is the key variable here. And IT just comes down to how many of these meal BIOS they successful process on election day. If they process all of them, we will know that, I think, on election night.

And there may not be much of a way. And you should stay up if they don't. And IT comes down to pennsylvania a, which is probably will go to bed, go to bed.

Okay, you are about to go off gonna walk out the studio, you're onna set up systems and processes to count. You're going to be consumed by this for the next, I don't know, twenty hours than that. My true final question to you is, are you going to make time for us to the night if we need you? Because the country, the country needs the guide to guide when we get a result or don't get a result, how early do you need me?

I don't know. Like I suppose we're gonna try to tape around three A M. I think three, three thirty is probably the last minute we can record.

There should be a window in that range where we've gotten most of what we're gonna on election night. And I can come away from my computer to talk to you.

Please come, i'll do my best. Your country needs you. The listener's needs you.

Meanwhile, thank you very much. Name as always, really appreciate that. thanks.

any.

Speaking of the election, we wants to hear from you once the election is called and a winner is declared, record a voice memo on your phone and tell us a few things, your name, where you live and how you feel about the outcome, your immediate reaction, your hopes and fears for president elect trump or Harris, and how your life could change as a result of their Victory.

Keep IT relatively short, less than two minutes, and send the file to the daily at N, Y times. Start com. That's the daily at N Y times start com with the subject line reaction.

Will be right back.

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Here's what else .

you need to neuro.

So pennsylvania, i'm here to ask for your vote. I'm here to ask .

on the final day of the campaign, commonly, Harris and Donald trump barnstorm across pennsylvania .

from the very start of our campaign. This has not been about a fight that is against something. This is about a fight that is for something.

During a series of rallies, Harris freed her campaign against trump as a battle between unity and division and between tyranny .

and freedom. That I am not going to be a leader who thinks that people who disagree with me should be put in jail, that they are the enemy. I'll give them a seat at the table because that's what real leaders do and that's what strong leaders .

do during a set of competing rallies.

Ho trump described the .

stakes of today's s election very differently.

Over the past four years, kala has orchestrated the most degrees tious betrayal that any leader american has.

He portrait as a choice between patriotism and radicalism and between unchecked immigration and a secure border.

We will not be invaded. We will not be occupied. We will not be overrun. We are an occupied country.

Day's episode was produced by Olivia a, eric croppy and Jessica, with help from Carlos creator alexandr mary wills a and oslo vi. IT was edited by M. J. Davis slim, contains original music by alesha a youtube and rowing mister, and was engineer by Alyssa moxy. Our theme music is by jan rundell and man landforms of wonderly.

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