Key Insights
Why might the election results take longer to count in some states compared to others?
Different states have varying laws regarding mail-in ballots and counting procedures. For example, in Pennsylvania, mail-in ballots cannot be opened until the morning of the election, while in Florida, they can be processed well before election day. Additionally, technology and methods for opening envelopes and counting ballots differ significantly between counties and states.
Why is Pennsylvania particularly crucial for determining the overall election outcome?
Pennsylvania is a key battleground state that can significantly impact the electoral college math. If Trump wins North Carolina and Georgia, he likely needs to sweep all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to prevail. Conversely, if Harris wins North Carolina and Georgia, she can afford to lose one of those states but still needs to perform well in Pennsylvania to secure a path to 270 electoral votes.
How might delays in counting votes in western states affect the national popular vote?
California, which is expected to heavily favor Harris, will not have all its votes counted on election night due to mail-in ballot processing. If the national popular vote is close, Trump could lead on election night because western mail-in ballots haven't been counted yet. This could fuel false claims of election fraud and create confusion about the results in battleground states.
What are the three main scenarios for the 2024 election outcome?
1) A decisive victory for Kamala Harris, repudiating Donald Trump. 2) A sweeping victory for Donald Trump, cementing a populist realignment. 3) Another close election, similar to 2020, with several swing states decided by one or two percentage points, requiring extended vote counting.
How might the early vote count misrepresent the final outcome in southern states?
The early vote, which is usually counted first, tends to favor Democrats due to higher early voting numbers. As election day votes, which tend to favor Republicans, are counted later, the initial leads or margins can shift, creating what is known as a 'morale' effect. However, this effect is expected to be less pronounced in 2024 due to fewer Democrats voting by mail and more Republicans voting early in person.
Chapters
- Decisive victory for Gala Harris would be a repudiation of Donald Trump.
- Decisive victory for Donald Trump would signify a populist realignment.
- A close election would resemble the 2020 presidential race.
Shownotes Transcript
