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The Last Vigil Before Polls Close

2024/11/5
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Key Insights

Why is Wisconsin considered a key state in the election?

Wisconsin is crucial due to its electoral votes and historical significance in presidential elections. It has a mix of urban and rural areas, making it a battleground for both parties.

How does the weather in Wisconsin affect voter turnout?

Adverse weather, like heavy rain, can deter voters from going to the polls. Clear, mild conditions encourage higher turnout, which was a concern initially but has improved.

What is the significance of early voting in Wisconsin compared to 2020?

In 2020, there was no effective ground game for early voting. This year, there has been a focused effort, leading to higher early voting numbers and a more balanced turnout.

How are rural counties in Wisconsin performing in terms of voter turnout?

Rural counties are seeing a significant increase in returned absentee ballots, with some reporting a 163% increase compared to the previous election cycle.

What is the current situation in North Carolina regarding voter turnout?

North Carolina is reporting long lines in heavy rural areas, similar to trends seen in Wisconsin and Arizona. This indicates strong Republican support in key areas.

How does the mood in the Eric Hovde camp reflect the overall sentiment in Wisconsin?

The Hovde camp has picked up momentum, with strong turnout in Republican strongholds like Pewaukee. This suggests a positive outlook for Republican candidates in the state.

What role does ballot curing play in the election process?

Ballot curing involves correcting errors or omissions on absentee ballots to ensure they are counted. It is crucial in close races to maximize the number of valid votes.

Why is the use of outside groups in election campaigns important?

Outside groups can provide sustained support beyond individual campaigns, ensuring continued efforts in down-ballot races and maintaining a presence in critical states.

How does the experience of first-time voters impact the election?

First-time voters, especially those over 30, can significantly influence the outcome, as their participation was not anticipated in traditional models and can swing results.

What is the significance of the female vote in the election?

The female vote is crucial, particularly among working-class women who may lean Republican. High turnout among this group can offset potential losses in other demographics.

How does the urban core vote typically behave in elections?

Urban cores often see increased turnout as the day progresses, with voters coming out after work. This can boost Democratic numbers in key urban areas.

What challenges does the Harris campaign face in motivating key voter groups?

The Harris campaign struggles to motivate young black and Hispanic voters, which is critical in states like Nevada. This lack of enthusiasm can impact overall turnout.

Why is Pennsylvania considered a difficult state to predict in the election?

Pennsylvania has diverse voting patterns across its regions, making it hard to predict. Urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can swing results, complicating forecasts.

How does the turnout in rural versus urban areas impact the election outcome?

Higher turnout in rural areas, which tend to favor Republicans, can offset lower turnout in urban areas. This dynamic is crucial in close states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Chapters

Charlie Kirk and his team discuss election day turnout in key states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona. They analyze early voting data, ground game efforts, and the potential impact of first-time voters. They express optimism about the overall turnout and the potential for a Republican victory.
  • High early voting return rates in Republican areas of Wisconsin.
  • Long lines reported in rural areas of North Carolina.
  • Increased voter turnout in rural Wisconsin compared to 2022.
  • Largest conservative ballot curing operation in Wisconsin.
  • Focus on getting out the vote, especially among low-propensity voters.
  • Significant number of first-time voters, particularly in Wisconsin and Arizona.

Shownotes Transcript

Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.

Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com. That is noblegoldinvestments.com. It's where I buy all of my gold. Go to noblegoldinvestments.com. This entire election very well might be decided today.

in Wisconsin. Joining us now is Brett Galasiewski. Did I say that right? Galasiewski. Man, I...

All right, Brett. Sorry about that. Brett, what is going on in the great state of Wisconsin today? Hey, Charlie. Totally fine on that front. No, things are looking good. The weather appears to be holding off here in Wisconsin. That was something we were really worried about at first when the forecast first came out last week. We were worried that this was going to be a big downpour kind of day. But the rain is holding off. The temps are in the mid-60s. So that's looking really good for people to come out and wait at the polls.

We're seeing massive lines in areas where we need to rack the score up in plurality Republican areas. So, so far looking on the in-person front, things are looking promising. So do you do you feel better on the ground than he did in 2020? I feel way better on the ground than I did in 2020. I know you guys had Terry Dietrich here on the show last week, and he had mentioned that there was no really no effective ground game when it came to early voting.

in 2020. This was the first election cycle that we really honed in on it. And you're seeing the numbers, I mean, it's coming to fruition in front of our eyes. I mean, in heavy Republican counties, you're seeing like Washington County, for instance, part of that wow county, the Milwaukee suburbs, they're reporting a 98% mail-in return rate, which is just crazy in comparison to say a 95% return rate that you're seeing out of Milwaukee County. Based on percentages returns alone, you're seeing a

heavy Republican county outvoting a heavy Democrat county. So absolutely, I feel better. And I'm feeling better by the day as these numbers have continued to come out. Are we seeing a big surge out of Milwaukee for Democrats or Dane County?

No, no. In fact, you're seeing early voting returns low in comparison to what they have been. So you know that they're not coming out on Election Day. So we appear to be losing by less in areas where we absolutely needed to do that, Dane and Milwaukee County. And we appear to be winning the rack the score up game in counties like Waukesha.

Tyler, do you have a thought for Brett? Welcome, by the way, Tyler Boyer, CEO of Turning Point Action. Literally just stepped in. He's been working the Turning Point Action HQ command center room all morning. So welcome, Tyler. We've got... And it's just... It's a total command center in Wisconsin, as Brett's covered. We're curing ballots in Wisconsin, the largest curing operation happening for the conservatives in Wisconsin right now, where he's at right now. And then obviously we're doing all our calls and texts. Brett...

How are things looking in our rurals with our more rural team? What are some of the reports that we're getting from kind of the upper side in between the Fond du Lac and Brown County areas?

Yeah. So I'll give you an example. So one of the rural counties that I've had my eye on now for a little while is St. Croix County. You're seeing 163 percent YTD increase in returned absentee ballots compared to 2022. So, you know, that was kind of the last election cycle that we had anything even close to an early voting percentage.

ground game. So if you're seeing 163%, and that seems to be kind of the trend of all of these rural counties seeing like upwards of 150% increase YTD from 2022 and return ballots in heavy red counties. I mean, we're doing the job then that we need to do in racking up the score.

So, Andrew, do you have a thought for Brett here? Well, I mean, Brett, I know you're overseeing, you know, not just Wisconsin, but you've got your eyes on other states, PA, North Carolina, Georgia. Give us a smattering of the reports coming in, especially North Carolina. We haven't heard much from North Carolina right now.

Yeah, North Carolina is interesting because that's going to be one of the first states that we hear from tonight. They end up ending their polling at 730 Eastern. So we're going to hear from them pretty early. Our field staff is reporting long lines in heavy rural areas. So, I mean, you're seeing the same trend that you would in a state like Wisconsin or a state like Arizona right now, seeing long lines in areas where we absolutely need to have that. So, I mean, the good news is we're going to know about North Carolina pretty soon here, like within, you know, if it's

five and a half hours here. So I'm curious here, just like you guys waiting on pins and needles. Brett, have you heard from back to Wisconsin? Have you heard from Hobday in his camp? Like what's the mood on the ground inside his war room?

The Hovde camp has picked up some momentum the last week here. I think the assumption was always it was just a matter of, you know, the more that that Trump performs better here in Wisconsin, that he was going to bring candidates like Eric Hovde up the ballot in the same way that Trump would bring up Carrie Lake in Arizona.

it's become increasingly clear that hubby has a better path to victory here. Um, I mean, I can give you guys an example of a ward that we've had our eye on for some time now, Pewaukee kind of a heavy Republican stronghold, you know, hubby is going to win if the turnout game is strong. Uh,

And he's one of those candidates that absolutely can say that. It just turned noon here in the Central Time Zone, and we just had one of our guys on the ground go to this polling location, Wagner Park, that we've identified 1,000 conservatives that are not voting. They already are reporting a number of 687. It's not even noon yet. So the turnout game...

appears to be on the strong side. I don't want to get out in front of our skis here, but that's going to look really promising for Eric Hubby this evening. Tyler, can you explain what's going on in this picture? Cut 97 is up on screen. These are folks making calls in the Turning Point Action headquarters. What's going on in that picture? Yeah, and I actually just took a video and just tweeted it. We've got four rooms full of callers and texters happening right now, and what they're calling and texting is our universe, and

of people that we have left who are low propensity to get out because again the high propensity will take care of themselves a lot of them are dropping off we're calling some of those people too through our commit 100 program and some other things

But we're getting lots of feedback. I dropped it off. I mailed it a couple days ago. Those numbers haven't come to Maricopa County yet. In Wisconsin, we have the same thing. Like I mentioned, Brett is there helping ring lead the middle of not just getting people out to the polls, but now we're moving to curing ballots. And so this is the thing that we're going to talk about a lot over the next few days, especially if we have tight races in some of these states. And we own...

This in Arizona, Wisconsin, because we have the largest field teams in both states. And it's not just presidential, right? You're curing for down ballot races. So that's a really good question, Andrew, because historically what would happen is in a presidential cycle or a Senate cycle, what will happen is the campaign or the NRSC will fund people if it helps them. And then what will happen?

They poof, they're gone. They're vapor. They're who'sy whatsy. That's what happens. They leave. And guess what happens? Then we lose these down-bound races because there's no one there to cure. So this is part of the reason why the outside infrastructure is so important. This is one of the many critical reasons why. Yes.

If you have outside groups that stay, they help you not just win the presidential, not the Senate, not just the congressional, but all the way down to every legislative race, every city council race, every school board race. So what we're going to be doing in Arizona and Wisconsin is regardless if President Trump blows this thing out of the water, right, we're going to still be there curing for everyone. This is great. I love this point. And Brett, you've been through some of these press inquiries along with the rest of the team where they go,

Everybody's doubting the way that the Trump campaign has set up this election with all these outside groups. It's untested. It's like, no, this is not untested. To Tyler's point, the Democrats have been using outside groups for basically decades now. They're the ones that set up the system the way it is. And we noticed it was actually outperforming

the sort of centralized power at the RNC model. So this is actually a good thing for the movement. I want everybody to get that through their minds that we reject the premise that this is somehow bad or untested. This is actually the way it should have been set up because groups like Turning Point and others are going to be there for the long haul. I want everyone to email me, freedom at charliekirk.com. Include the state that you are in when you send us your stories. Brett, we're going to keep you there. Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.

Right here, someone says, Charlie, I'm 25 and my best friend is 24. Last week, I picked her up and we voted for Donald Trump. First time ever in the state of Michigan. You got to love that. Charlie, I agree with everything you're saying. I'm a 39-year-old white male who has never voted until today. Saw your videos. I agree with what they're saying. And you got me to vote for Trump. Get this. I live in western Wisconsin.

That is a first-time white male voter, age 39, who is voting because of the Charlie Burke videos. First time at 39. Again, that's what shakes the matrix, guys. I mean, you're trying to pull, you're trying to track. All of a sudden, Ricky shows up in western Wisconsin. No one was tracking for Ricky to show up. Nobody assumed he was going to show up. Right, and so that helps really throw things off in a good way.

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All right, so look, I am now at 5,000 emails this morning of people that have taken at least two or three or four other people. I want you guys to understand that. That's a huge force multiplier effect. Right here, let me just read this here in Arizona. Charlie, I have two co-workers. This is Brandon, who have never voted. Exactly. They have just registered to vote because they wanted to be changed. I don't know how they registered to vote today, but that's fine.

They went and voted today for Donald Trump. One 37-year-old white female, one female Hispanic. I have a theory, Tyler, and I want your Wisconsin thing. You can same-day register in Wisconsin. Not in Arizona.

Oh, is it a Nerzo? All right. Which, I don't know, maybe it's just the semantics thing. I think we're going to do better with working class women than people think. I think that white girl women, that's a whole separate thing, kind of white, college educated. But working class women, I think we're going to do better than people think. What's your Wisconsin? Oh, for sure. And today we will definitely get and we will see a higher...

percentage of women because it's more Republican today. So, you know, where we've seen and so one thing that we've been tracking is modeling the independents in Arizona. The independents in Arizona are coming back slightly more Democrat than they are Republican. We won't get into the exact numbers, but today will offset some of that or should offset some of that. And so as we're seeing these high Republican numbers, these high independent numbers, they're going to tilt. They should tilt based off historics a little bit more Republican.

So a lot more conservative. What's your Wisconsin story? Because we're running out of time. So, yeah. So one of our managers, Jordan, who's incredible on the Western front in Wisconsin, actually shared a message from our group chat today from one of the voters he talked to, a quote. And the voter said, to be honest, I probably wouldn't have voted unless you would have asked me to today. Unquote. So this works. The voter contact works, especially young people to young people. Glad you brought this up.

Glad you brought this. We just actually put together in honor of you coming on the show and having Brett here as well. Play 96 to B-roll as Tyler talks. These are a few images just from this morning of first time voters that our ballot chasers have brought out.

So check these guys out. First time voters. And guys, you know how hard it is to get a picture of someone while they're actually doing stuff too. It's like, so this is just a fraction of the people that we're interacting with each of, and I'll tell you too, yesterday, you want to get excited yesterday? Our team doubled our output art in just one day. No, not just double our output, doubled our output in goals. So our goal metric got doubled yesterday and,

Totally unexpected. It was our best day that we've ever had in chasing. Two times the amount of chase that they're expected to get on a daily basis. I expect we'll have the same, if not better today. Right, because it's ramping up. Everything's getting more. And then you have the buildup. So the beautiful part of if you do the chase correctly, there's buildup over the course of the month.

So more people, they get reminded more times they end up voting and there is a Fred, a Freddie election day vote boost that we're expecting. We're not building it into our numbers, but Andrew or right now on track to,

From the Turning Point Action Universe. Can we say it today? No, I don't want to jinx it. Once polls close. But once polls close, we can talk about it. We'll talk about it for the next number of days. We'll have so much mic time to talk about this. I'll break down the numbers. These are just first-time voters. Put that picture up again, guys. This is through our chase. First-time voter. Go to the next one. I'll break down the numbers. First-time voters. But here's where we're at. We're trending right now to be significantly above where we targeted for low-preventivity voters. What does that mean?

Well, that makes up for mistakes or discrepancies with lower turnout with the high propensities. That makes up for, you know, slightly unaccounted for variances between bleed from the left and the right. So meaning people for that crossover from Trump to Kamala and Kamala to Trump.

It makes up for all these things. The female vote. If we lose the female vote by a couple more points. I got a great email here. Charlie, I have a small group of 10 women friends in Wisconsin. We're all over 65. We're all college educated. We all voted for Trump. Some of us still have a moral compass.

Let me do another one here. Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com. Charlie, I'm a college kid at University of Arizona. I only voted because of your appearance, and I got three friends who did the same. Lose by less in Pima, right? It's kind of cool. We'll never know the actual impact of what we did this semester. We'll never know, right, Andrew? Well, and...

all the actions together. And since Brett, we still got you throw up image 98. This is, this is in your HQ right now. If I'm not mistaken, the call center you have going on right there. Boom. Yep. That's this is happening as we speak.

Right now, this is the largest ballot curing operation that the state of Wisconsin has ever seen because there really is no standardized ballot curing program that exists here in Wisconsin. Unlike a state like Arizona where you can ballot cure for five days after the election, you can only ballot cure on Election Day here in Wisconsin. This is the dark horse that I don't think the left sees coming.

We are making literal thousands of calls and sending 200 plus people on the ground to doors to help assist in curing ballots of likely Trump voters. Guys, I cannot tell you the impact that this could have over the next 24 hours. Brett, you're doing a great job. All right, Brett, we're taking too much of your time. Go chase more ballots. Get more voters up, Brett. Do not care about Wisconsin. Wisconsin could end up being the determinative key. It really could.

Get everyone you know. Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com. Let me read this email here. And it ties into our guest. We have both Josh and Terry. Okay, that's amazing.

Charlie, my son got eight friends to vote for Trump today in Wisconsin. Woo! Joining us now is Terry Dietrich, who is the committeeman in Wisconsin, and also my man in Georgia, Josh McCoon. This is the all-star team. Everyone watching right now, I want you to take notes. Take a screenshot. These are two names. If we win the White House, these are two folks right here of names. They have done more than...

let's just say clipboard and tennis shoes work. They've done more shovel work than anybody in the grassroots of Pennsylvania. I'm sorry, Wisconsin and Georgia, Josh and Terry first, Josh, I'm going to start with you because we just did a whole Wisconsin conversation. So Terry, just hang on a second, Josh, what is going on in Georgia? How do we feel? Give us an analysis and then contrast it to 2020. So Charlie, we're feeling good.

We've got about half a million people that have voted so far today. We're on trend for about 1.2 million total turnout today, which would set a record for Georgia turnout. As I've said to you before, I believe we ended early voting in the lead, which is unprecedented for us. But today what I'm hearing again is very strong turnout from our rural counties and rural precincts. Lots of precincts reporting in that have already hit 80%.

of the election day total four years ago. So on trend to overperform in all really rural precincts, particularly in North Georgia, Georgia's 14th district, Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.

And then the city of Atlanta, very quiet, almost eerily quiet in terms of turnout at the moment. So obviously there's time left for a late surge to emerge. But right now we are feeling very good about where the votes are coming from and the volume of votes we see coming in hour over hour. OK, so tell me that in 2020, what did the urban areas look like at this time?

And also, didn't they have more absentee ballots in the urban areas? Is that correct? Absolutely. So the story in 2020 was the absentee ballot mail vote. Biden won that vote by 398,000 votes. It was his entire margin. This time we've had 250,000 absentee ballots returned with just today left. So very few absentee ballot by mail votes.

Most of the urban counties and Democratic districts we look at are underperforming from 2020. They were underperforming in the early vote. They are continuing to underperform in the election day voting. I actually believe when we close the books today,

that a lot of these areas are going to be under their total vote for 2020. And obviously, we've added almost a million voters to our voter rolls in the last four years. So to see that they're not even meeting the turnout from four years ago, while we're seeing consistently overperformance, more turnout, it looks really good for us heading into the final stretch. Okay, so Josh, we're not celebrating anything.

But tonight, if we win Georgia— Go vote. If you're hearing me and you're in Georgia, go vote. No, no, no. By the way, everybody, we are dealing with Stacey Abrams, okay? This is a crooked, crooked operation. We need to surge. But I'll just say, if it goes our way, Josh, you deserve a lot of credit. And we're going to be talking. We're going to have you on. We're going to really debunk—you know, kind of not debunk it, but debrief on it. Sorry, it's been a while.

long month this week. Now, Terry Dietrich, who is our Waukesha man. Terry, we just had a great conversation with Brett. As you know, Brett's doing a great job. Terry, I want you to say, how do you feel right now versus four years ago? I would say certainly our early voting, which brought us equal or above

the Dems makes me feel great because we weren't even close in 2020. I mean, it was two thirds, one third. And I would say right now we're, we've got the slight lead on that. I'm seeing 51, 52, 48, somewhere in that. So coming into game day here,

I mean, I really feel good. So far, we've seen some pretty heavy voting out here in kind of the western part of Waukesha. Our concern, of course, is over in Brookfield and Elm Grove and right along that Milwaukee borderline that was just, you know, redistricted here. So that's a concern for us. We're pushing hard. We're pounding the phones right now of every Republican and every low prop red over on the eastern side to push out. But if I put it all in context...

We're way ahead as of Friday night and that number and coming into game day. So I feel good. Hey, everybody. Charlie Kirk here. Did you know that 80% of adults take supplements to feel our best, right? Well, one thing your dog can't do without you is improve their diet or health to feel their best. That's why I believe Rough Greens could dramatically help your best friend by adding what's missing to their diet like you do. Rough Greens is helping thousands of dogs feel better and live longer, including my dog who loves it.

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Andrew, you have a thought for Terry or Josh? This is the All-Star team, everybody. And let me just say, email me right now, freedom at charliekirk.com, your successful voting story and how you have brought a new vote to the polls. That's all I care about. If you guys are watching your high prop, you need to go bring a new voter to the polls. Andrew.

Yeah, I mean, what I'm hearing, it sounds like a lot is and maybe you guys can confirm this or or debunk it. But what I'm hearing across the board is that we're seeing really good turnouts in the rurals. We're driving up the score there and the urban centers seem to be a little bit quiet.

In PA, we're told that the urban core tends to kind of liven up as the day goes on. It gets a little bit more. The lines build up a little bit more. Is that what we're expecting in Milwaukee, in Atlanta? Is there a tendency for the Dems to come out in the afternoon in the urban core? Well, I'll just say in Georgia, Democrats tend to do very well in the urban core.

early part of early voting, and they don't turn out as much on election day. So the situation we find ourselves in in this election is they really need to have very significant turnout in the next few hours. I can tell you that Whitfield County, Dalton, and North Georgia has already hit 80 percent of their 2020 election day number with five hours of voting to go.

Bartow County, uh, right outside of Atlanta, huge Republican stronghold. They're tracking ahead of their 2020 numbers, uh, Cherokee County, Katusa County on track to meet or exceed 2020 numbers. And we're just not seeing that in Fulton County or Clayton County or DeKalb County. They are not approaching those 2020 levels. And obviously, um,

That was a very close election when all of that happened. So if we're exceeding our targets in these key precincts, I think that we're on trend for a good day. But yes, you're right. We will probably see more turnout as the day goes on, but it just is going to take an awful lot of turnout. But I'll say one more time, if you are a Republican and you have not...

voted in Georgia yet. We need you to get to the polls right now. Go to SwampTheVoteUSA.com. Go find your polling place. Get out there and vote. And as Charlie said, if you've already voted, help us get your friends and neighbors out right now because this is it. This is game time. One follow-up, Josh, and then I want to hear the same about Milwaukee and Dane out of Wisconsin. But Josh, what is the time frame? When can you get in line

and still vote today in Georgia? As long as you're in line prior to 7 p.m., you'll be allowed to vote. So once you're in line, you're in line before 7, just stay. You will be permitted to vote. Don't walk out of the line. You've got to stay in line until they get you to your machine. But

I will tell you today the lines have not been long because we had four million people vote early. So if you get to your polling place, you're probably not going to have a line. So there's really no excuse to go in, check in, check out, get it done for Donald J. Trump and the Republican ticket. All right. Terry, Milwaukee, Dane, how are we looking? Are we expecting later in the day turnout for the Dems?

My good friend Josh there in Georgia, it's almost exactly the same in this state. I mean, what's taking place here? Really high early turnout, which did not bode well for the Democrats that way. Look, Dane County is going to be a monster. They're going to get their votes out. Brandon Malley and the Turning Point team up in Madison and Dane County is doing a good job. He's looking for three or four more points to lose by less up there.

I think that's a good shot. I was talking to former Governor Thompson last night. He feels good about Dane County. They're going to put up their big number there. Milwaukee, on the other hand, so far has been quiet. Absolutely. I mean, we're looking at the inner city and the Hispanic vote. They're just not moving. So, Terry, Josh, you just said Atlanta eerily quiet. Terry, you just said Milwaukee is eerily quiet. Why is that, guys? We've heard the same out of Philly, too. What's going on here?

Well, I'll mention one thing about Atlanta and Georgia is we saw really high turnout among black female voters during early voting. But they were really approaching the ceiling of those voters as we were getting into Friday, which we had almost 300,000 people vote on Friday. So I think part of what we're seeing is a lack of enthusiasm among black male voters.

And there aren't black female voters still available to go out and vote. They're literally running out of those. So I think that is at least what is driving the lack of turnout we're seeing in Atlanta right now.

Yeah. In Milwaukee, you know, you know that on Friday night we had President Trump in the same FISA forum, downtown Milwaukee. It was a very strategic move by the Trump team. I give him a lot of credit because I would love to have him out here in Waukesha, but we put him downtown. It was absolutely packed. A lot of crossover Dems, I think, were very interested. Kennedy was there, pushed hard on that side.

We just haven't seen much activity. Kamala was there. She was here in Waukesha County. Bill Clinton was in Waukesha County, but they haven't spent a lot of time at all in Milwaukee. It's surprising to us. Now, you know, there's always a surprise at the polls down there because it is...

not trustworthy for sure. We're all over it with the election integrity team. But I mean, I've been around a while and I've seen Milwaukee when it's up and crazy like for Obama and I've seen it when it's down and I gotta tell you that unless they have some kind of surge I don't know about in the next four or five hours. I think that number is going to be down. I think Dane's going to be huge and

And so that offsets and obviously the wall counties out here, we've been infiltrated and we've got to really pound and make sure that we wouldn't, everybody's used the word out here, cannibalized. We didn't cannibalize our game day by, you know, voting really heavy early. I'm seeing her heavy, heavy turnout here. Our Eastern side is a concern. The,

The middle and western portion of our county, I think, is excited and ready to vote at record levels. Andrew, do you want to go through this Amish thing really quick? Because we have Josh and Terry here. Yeah, this was just an image that we found. Somebody posted online. It's not our image, but it's a literal Amish Trump train.

spotted in Pennsylvania rolling down the road with a big Trump flag. Go ahead and throw that up. And the caption reads, you know it's serious when the Amish get involved. I mean, kudos to Cliff and Scott working in PA. Also Noah from ICA, our team. They've made huge inroads with the Amish.

who oftentimes just kind of sit out the election. This time they are active and getting really involved in their civic duties, which is great. So Josh, let's start with you. Talk about your election integrity team here and the eyes that you have in Fulton County, Cobb, et cetera.

So we have a tremendous team of attorneys, not just from here in Georgia, but all across the country. RNC has been great, given a lot of support. We won a huge decision yesterday. Cobb County was trying to extend to Friday the deadline to receive absentee ballots.

The Georgia Supreme Court said no. Georgia law is clear. It's got to be done at 7 p.m. today. So we've got a great team, great team of volunteers, more poll-watching shifts covered than ever before. So we are on top of it. When issues are being reported, we are jumping right on them.

Terry, tell us about your election integrity team that you have in Wisconsin. You know, we always have fun in Milwaukee. So as you probably know, the RNC sued the Milwaukee Election Commission yesterday over the lack of providing access for our observers. We had larger, largest, just like Jack, we had the largest number

observer and poll inspector crews in all the major counties here in Wisconsin. So we're well covered that way. Love the fact that when Josh and I talked, I don't know, six months ago,

He pushed in the fact that we not only needed lawyers, but we needed qualified, trained lawyers who are pit bulls to get in there and do that. And I see that here in Wisconsin, finally, which is great. Out here in Waukesha County, we trained 479 poll inspectors. Those are the folks who can sit at the table. So we're in good shape. All of our surveys tell us we've got our equal amount of Republicans versus Democrats here.

So I think we're in really good shape that way. Our state statute, frankly speaking, is the problem. We've got to clean up some of these irregularities and gray areas. And they're unfortunately being interpreted by various clerks in the Wisconsin Election Commission in very strange ways that causes a real challenge.

As far as us being there in their face, watching what's going on, I think I feel real good about it. I know in Dane County, we're doing the same thing. Up in Brown County and Green Bay, the same. So we've got good presence on the college campuses. So we're much, much better, much more prepared than we were in 2020.

OK, just I have one more question here and then we'll wrap it up with Terry as well. Josh, let me read this tweet here. It's from Seth Keschel on Twitter. Real info. No voting centers in DeKalb with intermediate or long wait lines, most under five minutes. What does that mean, Josh? And is that correct? Are we reading that data correct? You are in DeKalb County, Georgia, is the beating heart.

of the Georgia Democratic Party, they have to have strong turnout in DeKalb County to win this election. But we're seeing it in Clayton County. We're seeing it in Dougherty County. We're seeing it in these Democratic strongholds all across the state. They're underperforming and the counties next door that tend to be Republican counties are overperforming. And again, I don't want to oversell it. We've got to have people go vote. There's five more hours to go.

but we feel really good about the trends that have been emerging throughout the day. We need people to continue to turn out, keep going to vote. You know, he took a bullet for us. We can take the time to drive to a polling place and be in and out in five minutes.

and get this thing done for Donald Trump and the Republican ticket. Let's close this out here. Terry, we just got an email from someone saying record long lines in rural Wisconsin. People that have never voted before talked in length while they were in line about people that were getting crushed by inflation. Terry, final thoughts here. The vibe on the ground in Wisconsin.

That is the vibe that's been here since day one of the early voting. The out state here is going absolutely crazy for Trump. So that's fantastic. Same here. We've got big lines everywhere. I'm really feeling good about it. We need to keep an eye on Milwaukee. I try to boost that a little bit, lose by less again. And then Dane County is going to be their only real stronghold that I see. Everywhere else in the state we're looking good.

You know, I've got 45,000 people in my county right now that have not voted. We are on the phone. We are in the cars and the trucks. We're knocking, dropping, dragging, doing everything we need to do. We'll get all those. We're finished with all our absentee ballot votes that have come in. We've chased all those for the last, you know, 20 days or so. So ABs are in and we won that really, really handily. So it all comes down to execution, guys, and we're going to pull it off.

I hope so, man. We win Wisconsin. Wisconsin could be the sleeper Pennsylvania. But I want you guys to understand, you have Georgia-Wisconsin. You win those two states. Look at the screen here. You've got Arizona-Georgia-Wisconsin right on screen. And if we had Michael Watley, we could have the whole gambit right there. That's ballgame. As long as Iowa performs. We might get PA. Sleep the blue wall, lose Iowa.

Alright guys, I want to be respectful of your time. Thank you so much Josh McCoon, Terry Dietrich, two great patriots. Keep texting us with updates and we are hours away from polls closing. Thank you guys. Blake, you're giving me that look like you have something to talk about. I want to read this message that we got on YouTube, I believe it was. Julian D. donated 200 Argentine pesos. And he asked Charlie, greetings from Argentina. Charlie, greetings from Argentina. What do you think about our Presidente? I like Malay, but I hope we never have to get

Exactly. So I wanted to highlight this because he donated 200, which sounds like a lot. That is 20 cents in U.S. dollars. And that is because they have had hyperinflation there, which we don't want to have in the United States. We don't want to be bailed out by our own Malay in 10 years or 20 years or 50 years. And so that is why we're hoping that tonight's result is what we need.

Andrew, what are we seeing and what are we hearing right now? By the way, the amount of Wisconsin emails we're getting right now of people that are bringing out new voters, it's on, I mean, just from a Richter scale standpoint, I like the vibe out of Wisconsin right now. I like it. So the one question, and I want us to all take some humble pie. I mean, obviously we like some of the trends we're seeing. I'm not trying to get us on a downer note. I just want to remind everybody that 2020 was COVID.

We are not in COVID. A lot of Dems voted by mail and they might have changed their voting habit back to voting on Election Day. And we need to you need to emotionally prepare for that. That could be a reality. Right. But the same is also true. We did better with early voting. So there's just again, it does not matter the order of operation. You vote just that you vote. Your vote does not count more in the fourth quarter in the first quarter. However, voting the first quarter means that you don't have to vote in the fourth quarter.

Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com. We have right here, first-time voter. Man, we're getting thousands of emails. Charlie, great job. I got my 72-year-old sister to vote for the first time. I got two of my nieces to vote. They all voted for DJT. Charlie, my brother and I, 50 years old, are all first-time voters.

I'm telling you right now. You wonder, like, what have these guys been doing the last decade? Honestly, no one's earned their vote. But, again, if these emails are any window – I'm just being honest. Again, we could be totally hopium right now. This could be totally – I just want to be clear. But if these emails are any indication of a broader trend, I have, like, 3,000 emails of first-time voters, of people that are over the age of 30.

Hey, Charlie, real quick. First time voters. Another one. How can someone phone bank or do something for Trump and PA today? I have nothing to do with that. Take out your TP Action. Take out your phone and download TP Action in the App Store. That's TP Action in the App Store.

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Email us your successful voting story. I'm going to read some of these first-time voters. Charlie, I'm a first-time voter, 38 years old, never voted before. Trump inspired me. Charlie from Clayton, Wisconsin. My son is a first-time voter. I got my mother, who is a first-time voter, to also vote for Trump, 86 years old. Isn't that amazing?

86 years old. First time. First time voter, 20 years old in Pennsylvania. It was very confusing. However, I voted love Elon Musk. Charlie, MAGA since 2016. My grandmother is over 80 years old from the Netherlands. She became a citizen 20 years ago. She voted for Trump. Charlie, let me just go to this one here. So a lot of first time voters. Tons. I mean, if we win, it will be the rise of the low prop. It will be the rise of the low prop. Can we do something real quick here? Can we play...

Can we play? I believe I'm getting different numbers. I think it's 103. It should be the right clip from Bryce. Left us a voicemail. Hey, Charlie. My name is Bryce. I just wanted to say thank you for opening my eyes upon this election. This is my second time voting, and I was on the fence about who I was going to vote for this time. I'm a previous Trump voter, and I was going to change my mind, but upon watching your podcast...

and doing my own research, I can tell that Trump is the best candidate for me. I just wanted to reiterate on thanking you again for what you have done for me and for others upon your podcast and going out to speaking to Gen Z voters like myself and reaching out to them and teaching them the ways on how

should be and we should put American citizens first over others. Thank you. Amen. It's awesome, right? And by the way, Bryce is a member now. He's a new member at members.charliekirk.com. So please consider joining. If you join, you can leave us voicemails. We're going to be playing those throughout the stream tonight, which will be a lot of fun.

I remind everybody we'll be streaming tonight. We're literally going to just go one more hour here and then just take a break for a little bit. Polls are closing soon, guys. The picture of what's going to happen is nearly complete. The picture is going to be complete. I haven't heard much out of Pennsylvania lately. Have you? No. Good or bad? It's just kind of a lot of ambiguity. So I hope those lines are continuing. If you have any intel on Pennsylvania, what's happening, email us freedom at charliekirk.com. First time voter. Charlie, my sister is two years older than I.

42 years old, first time voting, and I got her to vote. Jeez, it's amazing. Charlie, I'm a first time voter. My husband and father-in-law are also first time voters out today. I'll tell you, man, this is not normal. I've been doing this a long time. Charlie, I'm 46 years old, Chester County, Pennsylvania, white female voter, first time voter, 46 years old. Arizona voting story. Charlie, I'm 32 years old, female welder. Last week I made a plan with every single person my welder shopped to vote. We dropped off our ballots. I have a few friends I'm picking up to the polls. Go Trump, go. Female welder. God bless you, Brianna. That's amazing.

First time voters get first time voters out to the polls to email us as always. Freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. That is freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. Joining us now is Victor Jakes from Las Vegas Review Journal. Victor does a great job and Victor's analyzing what's happening in Nevada can be very confusing. Victor, welcome to the program for our national audience. Please explain what is currently happening on the ground in Nevada.

Well, Nevada, like a lot of places, there's some conflicting signals. So historically what's happened in Nevada is that Democrats have jumped out to a big lead. We have two weeks of early voting here. We also have universal mail voting and obviously Election Day voting. So historically what's happened is Democrats have jumped out to a big lead, especially in Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is. About 70 percent of the voters are here.

And what Democrats like to do is basically run up the score in Clark County. And sometimes they have an 80 to 100,000 voter advantage. And there's just not enough votes left in the state to overcome that. And so what we saw this year, which was really encouraging for Trump and other Republicans, is that the Clark County voter edge. Obviously, we don't know how nonpartisans or minor party voters are voting.

The voter edge for Democrats in Clark County was about 18,000 going into Election Day. And so if you go to four years ago, what Democrats had was around a 45,000 voter edge in Nevada. And this year it was about 42,000 voter edge for Republicans, which is just incredible.

I mean, it's an almost 90,000 voter swing in a state that Trump won, or excuse me, that Biden won by less than 34,000 votes. So you're going into Election Day with Republicans in the lead. Again, that's unusual. Usually that doesn't happen. And the other thing that usually happens is Republicans do very well on Election Day. They outperform Democrats.

But we're also seeing something a little bit different this time where Democrats are seeing a significant boost in turnout on Election Day. Right before I came on the air here, I actually got some numbers. So you have to apologize. I'm looking down and doing this in real time. But compared to four years ago, Democrats are up 7,500 voters in Clark County. Again, that's the Democrats' stronghold. They went from 5,700 voters to...

four years ago, voting by 10 o'clock Election Day in person to over 13,000. Republicans four years ago had a lead of about 6.2 thousand voters and it was actually probably closer to 8

Some of the data wasn't complete. This year, Republicans' voter lead at 10 a.m. is 4,000 voters. And what we've seen, we've actually seen more Republicans show up, but we've seen a greater number of Democrats show up than in past years. And so, you know, obviously everyone wants to know how the election is going to go. I'd love to know how the election is going to go. Only God knows that.

What we do know is there is a 90,000, almost 90,000 voter swing compared to where we were four years ago going into Election Day. And so while it's not what we expected with Democrats doing better on Election Day, they haven't yet produced the margins that they would need to really fight

to really, really dig into that 90,000 voter swing that I've been talking about. Andrew, you are Mr. Nevada. What questions do you have for Victor here? Victor's Mr. Nevada, but I've been, unfortunately, out of state, exiled in communist California for a number of years. But, Victor, I saw some tweets from you that were getting shared around –

You were essentially analyzing the John Ralston prediction. He predicted that Nevada was going to go narrowly, I guess like 0.3 percentage point, less than a point, for Kamala Harris. And it sort of shocked everybody because we're all looking at the early vote numbers as well, which is essentially, as you said, about a 90-vote swing towards the Republicans, towards Trump. Break down what essentially you're seeing in his numbers. Do you—

take issue with any of his assumptions, any of his predictions. What can you tell us? Well, to be a little cliche here for Las Vegas, basically Democrats are holding a seven and a jack and they need to draw an

an eight, nine and a 10 for a straight because that's what they need. They need, they need to win election day. Historically, they have lost election day. It looks like that is possible. I don't think they're going to win it by major margins, but that's possible. And then they need basically a, an unprecedented amount of mail ballots still to come in. And one of the crazy things in Nevada that happens, and one of the reasons we're not going to have results probably for three days is

is that all the ballots don't have to be in by election day. They can be mailed in and then they can be received up to four days after the election. And further complicating it is that you can go to the polling place and drop off your mail ballot

And we won't know how many of those ballots there are until tomorrow. And so, you know, basically Democrats need a huge, huge surge in mail. So they need a huge surge in in-person Election Day voting. They need a huge surge in mail ballots. And even then, that's still not enough, right? They need rural Nevada. There's 15 counties in Nevada that are pretty sparsely populated, but they're very strong Trump counties. And if they vote strong, they really give Republicans

Republicans are just a major margin of victory. So we talk so much about

Clark County. Let's go up to Washoe. What are you seeing numbers-wise in Washoe? And by the way, are you hearing day of reports in Washoe? You're saying that Clark County Democrats are performing well, okay? But apparently, do we still have the margin statewide? Or are you just saying we still have about a 4,000 margin in Clark? Because we're going to win day of, right? I mean, historically, we win day of. So go up to Washoe. Historically, yeah.

Yeah. OK, so let me just let me just clarify there. Republicans have a forty three thousand voter lead. And right now you would say that's that's around forty seven thousand voter lead in the state with with the looming mail drop off ballots as kind of an unknown. So Washoe County four years ago at this point before Election Day, Democrats were up by about 400 votes currently.

Heading into Election Day, Republicans were up by, I think, I want to say it was around 7, 7, 800 votes. So a pretty significant shift in Washoe. And what we've seen in the Washoe numbers, let me just do this on the fly. So far, Republicans have outvoted Democrats by about 1,000 people through 10 a.m.,

four years ago was 1,700. So you're seeing turnout go up for both parties. More Democrats are turning out proportionally than Republicans. Republicans still have a lead in Washoe. And so I expect that Republicans are going to do better in terms of voting than they did four years ago. And so just to circle back on kind of that last assumption, if you think Democrats are going to pull it out in Nevada, you also need nonpartisan voters to break for Democrats in a strong way. And

You know, could it happen? Absolutely it could happen. You know, I don't know what everyone's voting. What I do know is that nationally there have been all of these stories about how Kamala Harris is struggling to motivate young black and Hispanic voters. And if you look at Las Vegas and to a lesser extent, Washoe, who do Democrats need to turn out? Well, they needed to turn out young black and Hispanic voters. And if you look at those parts of the metro area, those are the parts where Democrats are missing votes. And so I'm

I still think that the simplest explanation for what's happening in Nevada is Kamala Harris couldn't motivate those that set of voters that everyone's been talking about for months at this point. And it showed up here in Nevada and Democrats effort to churn out more voters, you know, probably say we'll save them some down ballot races, you know, but overall, I still think Trump is the favorite in Nevada. Obviously, you know, the ballots are yet to be counted.

Sorry. Yeah. Charlie's deferring to me for the Nevada update here. Victor, the is the rurals. What was the turnout percentage wise in the rurals? And compare that to what we're looking at now. I know it's a smaller chunk of the vote, but I also those are my people. And I know there's like 75, 25, 80, 20 votes right there for Trump.

The margins. And so what we saw four years ago is these rural Nevada counties, as you said, are small, but they're very, very strong Republican, four to one, five to one. And four years ago, they turned out 85 plus percent of registered voters in many cases. And so if you're looking at it,

Rural Nevada has outvoted Clark County heading into Election Day by five or 10 percentage points. And I anticipate that that will continue, that those rural counties will have a lot of Trump and Sam Brown for U.S. Senate ballots. And they seem to be showing up. So I think they're on track.

to turn out above Clark County. I would anticipate Clark County getting between 70% to 75% and rural Nevada getting between 80% to 85%. And that 10 percentage point turnout difference could make all the difference.

Victor, excellent analysis as always. Thank you so much. We'll keep a close eye on Nevada. It has been the most talked about early voting state of any state. So much modeling, so much predicting, so much chatter. Victor, thank you so much. Thanks, Victor. Thanks for having me.

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But if I were to say, Charlie, because I'm at now 7000 emails, which is something. Where is the pulse? And I this tends to be interesting. Andrew, don't sleep on Wisconsin. I'm telling you, the amount of working class people that are emailing me from Wisconsin right now saying they brought five friends, six friends. Everyone's talking about Trump, formerly Dem areas. And the early voting wasn't great for them.

I'm just saying, like, it's... And by the way, you win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Trump is president. Yeah. You essentially take PA off the board. Assuming we hold Iowa, of course, Charlie. But yeah, I mean, listen, we're getting a ton of incoming saying, there's lines out the door, historic turnout, urban core seem depressed. If that holds, which is a huge if, we're going to see what happens. You saw...

Clark County should give everybody a little bit of pause. Clark County is having a good day for Democrats on Election Day. We're still we're still holding the advantage overall in Clark County. But if they can do it in Clark, they can do it in some other places. The other

You know, and Victor, I think, pinpointed this really well. The other X factor in Nevada is that vote-by-mail drop, that they're going to keep counting for days. And that's the Harry Reid machine. By the way, you don't need Nevada if you win Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina. Of course, but as a Nevadan, I want to run up the score. By the way, Pennsylvania, I'm getting such mixed message on Pennsylvania. It is a crooked state. Charlie, it's good. It's bad. It's great. I mean, not bad. It's like Dems are surging here. Dems are low here. It's a ghost town in Philly. It's high in the burbs. I don't know. You just got to go vote.

Okay. But I'm getting a little bit of a clearer picture in Wisconsin. Why? It's less people. Okay. There's like not as much electoral votes. There's 11. Let me double check. It's 10 actually. So Arizona is more in between. So it's 10. Yeah, we're 11. Yeah. So anyway, again, this is just this is just

Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to read some of these emails here of people that are first-time voters. Charlie, six more votes in Trump. Six more official votes cast for Trump in Arizona, Jaden says. God bless you. 90-year-old mom in Pennsylvania. Nice guy just picked her up in a golf cart for the long way back to her car. Thanks to Concord Township. Workers are helping my mom. And that is a 90-year-old with a MAGA hat on. You got to love it.

First time voter. Charlie, this is my first time ever voting. Voted for a safe, healthy, and prosperous future. Again, I do not know how we're going to do the youth vote. I haven't seen any youth vote tallies recently. So, Charlie, I'm 36, Mexican-American, first time voter from Tucson. I voted for Trump because I saw your videos.

How cool is that? From Tucson. There's a lot of these. I just can't believe how many of these people there are. I'm not planning these. Like, for the record, I'm not seeding these. This is all legit here, which is amazing. It's very comforting to hear that people are voting because of what we're doing. Because you kind of live in a bubble. You don't know if anyone's listening sometimes. Let's go here. Charlie, first-time voter, 23 years old. Trump, all the way. Arizona, this is a first-time voter. Charlie, this is my first time voting since I missed the last election.

Just missed last election. My family's hardcore right. Was so excited. Loved it. Thanks so much. My 18 year old is a first time voter, registered and became a Trump voter. Proud mama bear. Good for you. College student who lives in a Democrat household. Ha ha. But my vote is private. I voted for Trump. Trump all the way. I love that. First family vote. Let's go to this one here. So email us freedom at charliekirk.com. This is one of my favorite guys. Family of 20 just went and voted for Trump.

Family of 20. It's a Mormon family. Oh, well. 20? 20. And you wonder why there's 18? They're out doing the Duggars? That's great. It's got to be like aunts and uncles. Oh, okay. Maybe. Yeah. All right. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to our podcast. Give me your early voting, your voting stories, and I'm signing hats, members.charliekirk.com.

Andrew has a clip he wants to say. All right. This is you, Charlie. The reason we pulled this is you were actually looking at it on the screen here as CNN was playing this because we have a wall full of all the networks playing so we can observe and monitor everything that's going on. Anyways, we pulled the clip because it was actually pretty interesting. This is right here in Maricopa County, CNN interviewing a voter, 107. You just voted for Donald Trump. Walk me through why you cast that vote.

Yeah, so just seeing what's been happening in the past four years. I voted Democrat the past four years and I'm really disappointed in the administration, how everything has been going. I was in the mortgage industry for quite some time and that hurt us pretty bad. I lost my job because of it.

dealing with the recession and everything. I know that everyone's saying we're looking for solutions from every party, right? But in actuality, the solutions they came up with were no solutions. It hurt us even more. Now you have to have a son with...

parents and you know daughter all the families get together to be able to even afford a home or even afford a rent you know the economy is number one issue for you absolutely it impacts every one of us did you vote for biden in 2020 i did i'm sorry i did

Yeah, I did. I was I was deceived, but I'm a walking example of how people can change their mind. You know, you just go with the evidence of, you know, what benefits you, what benefits you and your family. So Biden has not been beneficial to my family. Such a good clip. I love it. I was deceived. I'm a walking example of how people can change their mind. So, by the way, when you're looking at these partisan returns, one of this is a good this is a good note of caution for both parties.

There is going to be some bleed.

of republicans that vote democrat and democrats that vote happens every cycle yeah and usually that number is pretty much fixed but here's why it's a maybe a bit more concerned to conservatives in a state like arizona we have more people registered so if if both parties lose like six percent of their voters that means republicans are losing more of theirs now i i hope that we're we're bleeding less but that's a great example of of a democrat coming over and breaking party lines

Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com. Charlie, first-time voter from Tucson, Arizona. God bless you. Another email that I sent you guys here, which is great. Charlie, University of Wisconsin first-time voter. Charlie from UW-Madison student who got my entire friend group to go vote for Trump today after getting them to come to your event in Madison, currently wearing the MAGA hat you signed. Hey, man, don't sleep on Wisconsin. We put so much work in Wisconsin. That was always going to be a little bit of a long shot, but we'll see what happens there.

Charlie, first time voting in a presidential cycle from northern Wisconsin. How great is that? Northern Wisconsin. The Wisconsin emails, guys. Western Wisconsin, northern Wisconsin. You know, it was interesting what Terry was saying, though, about Dane County, that he's expecting it to come in big.

I mean, they must have just a killer operation in Dane. But we broke some of that. I've got to believe we broke some of that. These guys are, again, but if they don't have Milwaukee, they need Milwaukee plus Dane plus competitive wow and decreased rural. We have increased rural. Dane is strong for them-ish. Milwaukee down, wow, good.

Let's see what happens. Again, Wisconsin is the most formulaic of all the battlegrounds, meaning it's very simple to look at the inputs. Pennsylvania is an art, not a science. Pennsylvania's a mess. It's like, oh, well, Scranton is high and Luzerne is low and center is up and Philadelphia is here and Pittsburgh's there and Erie's there. It's like, what in the fret? It's like there's no formula that exists, right, Blake? I stand with the people of Hershey.

No, I know, but it's like Lancaster is down and Hershey is up and Harrisburg is trending. Lancaster? It's Lancaster. Lancaster? By the way, Amish country is south of there.

They have some funny names over there, I will say. As a West Coast boy, I always look at Pennsylvania. If we look at the vote in New Hampshire, it's Lebanon, not Lebanon. Oh, is that right? It's Berlin, not Berlin. It's not East Palestine. Yeah, it's just that we're going to have to check the East Palestine vote. I bet that we're going to want to be checking East Palestine. We're going to want to check Springfield. We're going to want to check Charleroi.

Charlie, right? Yeah, no, I mean, look, there's, again, Michigan is a whole other thing here. By the way, Charlie, Maddie says, Charlie, I am a first-time voter, long-time Trump supporter, and NAU student. I got an exciting text. I voted by early in my mail, but I got an exciting text from an undecided voter today. I got her to an event with me. She'll be dropping off her ballot for Donald J. Trump today.

God bless you, Maddie. Thank you so much. You are the best. Email us freedom at charliekirk.com. Charlie just got off work today and voted lacrosse for Trump. Second time voter. No, many people are voting for the first time, Wisconsin, many for Trump. We sense a wave coming in the Badger State. By the way, Democrats might regret doing same day registration in Wisconsin.

They yeah. You mentioned your your friend that was trying to vote in the same day registration. I mean, but like low props benefit us right now. Well, especially when you have Joe Rogan, Charlie, a lot. But no, here's let me connect two dots for you. Don't sleep on Wisconsin. Men are the least likely to get their paperwork filed the right way to register to vote to get a plan.

And then you have these states like Wisconsin, Nevada that have same day voter registration. And you have the night before the election, Joe Rogan officially endorses. Who's that going to benefit in those two states? Charlie, I've always leaned right, but haven't voted in over a decade. Listen to this, Blake. Always leaned right, but haven't voted in over a decade. My wife and I made sure to get out and vote for Donald J. Trump this morning in Milwaukee. Let's win Wisconsin. Appreciate your work. I mean, I'm getting thousands of first time Wisconsin voters.

That's big. Charlie, I live in Wisconsin. I'm 21 years old. I just voted for Donald Trump. Thanks for all you do. What is the entire state of Wisconsin? Are we like live on local television right now? I mean, every other email is Charlie East Central Wisconsin here. Wisconsin will go for Trump. Rain was forecasted for most of the day. Bodes well for red blooded Americans. Man, I hope so.

By the way, Eric Hovde deserves a lot of credit for narrowing the race and focusing on the issue set. I've heard so many good things about Hovde's race. By the way, it's possible he outperforms. It's possible he outperforms Trump. He could beat Trump in Wisconsin. But he spent $40 million of ads narrowing the issue set that favored Trump. Does that make sense? Where voters were like, oh, immigration. Oh, inflation. Update from Cliff.

Maloney in Pennsylvania. I said, any new updates, clues? He said, it's constant, lines in red areas, Philly picking up, but nothing major. Right here, North Carolina student, first time for Trump. Charlie, I took my ex-wife and her 96-year-old dad to vote, two votes for Trump. Now, that'd be something as a 96-year-old first-time voter. Speaking of which, by the way, can we just give a shout to Bernie Marcus? Yeah, Bernie Marcus passed away today. 95-year-old founder of... If we win, I wish he could have saw it. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars

Rich is on there. Rich. So it's just kind of one of those things. I wish he could. Bernie's a loss. I know. Well, hopefully he's in a better place. Right here really quick. And then Charlie, I'm 22 years old. I voted for Trump, but my ballot had trouble voting. So did many others. Worried about this special. I'm not getting into that. I should have voted early. Okay. No, seriously. Just vote early and then you have no problems. Like it's again, this is sympathy is nothing. I wore the vote early shirt for 30 days straight. We did everything we could for there. So hope it works out for you.

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Rich, what are we seeing right now? You sent out a very cryptic tweet. Yeah, there you go. Rich, you sent out a cryptic tweet saying that the Obama gang is increasing the turnout in Pennsylvania. Give us the truth of what's happening in Pennsylvania.

Yeah, so there's a lot of misinformation going around with Philly and other areas that simply have no numbers. So people are just making stuff up. I mean, wholly out of cloth, unless you're talking to people who are township supervisors or ward bosses that are literally in charge of looking at how many votes have been counted today. You don't know anything.

And this happens every election. So, well, what I, what I was referring to in my tweet, Charlie is a story that I, I got, which is an interesting story. And I think it makes sense as to what we're seeing. And it basically in the final few hours, there was like a two week period through and

through all early voting, and the Harris team didn't want anyone's help. They wanted Biden, Team Biden, to stay away, and eventually he made that comment, right? Which, when they brought him in, he made the garbage comment, and they were mad, so they kicked him to the curb. But the old schoolers, and these are smart guys,

They had been beating down the door like, look at your early vote. This is a problem, right? And by the way, Jim Messina just blew it up on MSNBC the other day. It's like, Jen, we've been texting back and forth. I mean, is he wearing lipstick in that clip? Do you have it? If you want to play it, I'll shut up. You can play it so everyone knows what I'm talking about. Go ahead. Okay.

So basically they weren't getting callbacks and they said, OK, you don't want to answer our phone calls. We're coming to town. We actually spoke to a voter over the weekend in Philadelphia. He's an unlikely voter. He's African-American, 36. And we're starting to ask people, did they contact you? Did campaigns contact you? And he was contacted for the first time the first time.

He's only a 2020 voter. And he told us that they had, you know, he'd been knocked by multiple groups the first time in that day. And he did not vote. They were like, look, we noticed you didn't hand in your ballot. And he's like, that's right. When we talked to him and interviewed him, he was upset. And he said, you know, they basically told us Trump was Hitler. You got to get out and get rid of him. He's the problem for COVID. He did this to us. He said, so I voted, you know, but they also told us that everything was fine with Biden. And I thought that this mental acuity stuff,

was like, you know, I'm not going to use the words he used, but he said, I thought that that was all right-wing nonsense and talking points. And they lied to me, man, the guy's senile, you know, and I'm not going out and voting for the next one just because they bang on my door and, you know, try to usher me over to drop it in the box. I'm not doing it. So he's not voting. So I just, I bring that up because the story that was just relayed to me,

Tells me that the old schoolers like the Obama people are trying to save this thing last minute, but her turnout is not good. Let's play cut 109. Okay, what's their biggest concern right now if you're the Harris team?

Well, look, I think it's a couple of things. The early vote numbers are a little scary. And you and I have been texting back and forth. Republicans didn't do what they did last time. Last time Trump said don't early vote. And so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers when the early vote come in. It's going to look a little bit different than 2020. And that's scary. That's scary, Rich Barris. Yeah.

Look, he's admitting something publicly that, honest, from everyone that I've spoken with that has plugs to this campaign, they'll admit it privately. They'll say, look, we know we didn't do well in the early vote. But their argument is basically – and this is – you don't want to do this. It kind of sounds like Trump's campaign in 2020. Don't worry. It's all going to break for us because all of these factors are going to fall in line. There's going to be so much women. Women are going to put us over. Well, we can see now that that's a very shaky proposition.

Two, also that they think Republican women and indies in specifically are going to give it to them. But here's the kicker. All right. We just and I know it's very, very small sample size of actual votes.

But the bottom line is that really didn't happen in Dixville Notch. Those Haley voters voted for Trump. That really didn't happen in Guam. It didn't happen in the Northern Marianas Islands. So, I mean, maybe that's different. It's a very small sample. But, I mean, that's a lot to ride your campaign on. And then also, I don't know if you had Victor on yet to talk about Nevada or if I'm a little before or a little after him. But, you know, he's going to come on. I just want to interject. Yeah.

And ABC News just leaked this. Their internal like some internal Republican model. Republicans model Wisconsin has Trump up one and a half in Wisconsin. I think it might be BS. I'm just saying don't sleep on Wisconsin. But yeah, go to Nevada, please.

If you live in Wisconsin, find every human being to go vote right now. You can win Wisconsin with the White House. Please, Rich. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Wisconsin could be could be the key to all of this. I mean, typically these states vote together, but we'll see. The problem also with that argument is that as Republicans have registered more voters in states like Nevada, the registration game is not sexy, but it's very important.

And when you see turnout disparities like we're seeing in Nevada right now, everyone expected Democrats and Clark to vote at a higher rate, but they're not voting at their level like – or outperforming their level or their share of the vote outstanding. And Republicans are, right? So when that happens, what can typically go down?

is that not only are your voters more energized, but your independent-leaning voters are more energized. These are people who are registered as other or unaffiliated, and we all, you know, we call them independents, but the truth is independents are made up of mostly people who don't have a partisan registration, but they have partisan leanings, a small share that says they don't agree with either party, and then a smaller share that says that they have, you know, something in common with both. And when you see these turnout disparities,

It's possible she could do it, Charlie. But to hitch your wagon to this idea when independents could in the end and like Washoe turn out to actually lean to Trump because they're going to vote for Trump in the rolls. The other numbers that you see being reported on the hour.

in places like Elk and these other counties, they're going to vote for Trump, right? And Clark, Indy's typically or other typically votes for Democrats. I mean, Washoe, that is – we don't know. I mean they voted for Lombardo and they voted for – against by a hair but against Laxalt in 22. So they split their vote in Washoe, those other voters. I have family members in Washoe, Rich, that have done the same.

All right. So let's see. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, they're key. No. Yeah, I'm just going to say now we just got the update in Washoe and Republicans maintained an election day. They went into election day in Washoe County with an early vote lead, and they now have just maintained slightly expanded it by a few votes to one thousand. I think it's like one thousand ninety net over Democrats. So if their whole.

Her supposition is that those voters are going to vote for her and that's going to put her over. Man, that sounds shaky to me. That sounds like the Trump campaign in 2020 trying to convince me that their Election Day vote is going to come in so big on Election Day. It's going to overcome Joe Biden's lead. And as you know, better than most are in Arizona. You know, they called it for Joe Biden immediately because his lead was so big. I don't agree with that call, but it's hard to overcome a deficit.

So, Rich, I want to read this email here. And I want you to tell me about Wisconsin. Again, we've spent a lot of time and money on Wisconsin. We're not in charge of Wisconsin for the record. Right, Andrew? Yeah. Right. We're supplemental. Yeah, we've put a lot of energy into it. Yes. But it's always been a big lift. Russell, and he says, 12 years since I voted. Charlie, I'm 40 years old.

from a male from Wisconsin. It has been 12 years since I voted last. Today I voted for Trump. There was a large presence of males in my voting ward as well. I convinced my brother and a few of my friends who aren't politically active to get out and vote as well. Love your work. Rich, we're getting lots of emails here. Either a bunch of lefties are trolling me and sending a bunch of Wisconsin emails with fake email addresses, which I find to be, or Rich, do you see the rise of Wisconsin? Yeah, the rise of the Wisconsin male.

Wisconsin is one of the three Rust Belt states where men can outvote women. They can come in 51 to 49. It has happened before. It happened for Walker several times. There are more men in the electorate than women. So absolutely that could be. And just as an – it's anecdotal, of course. But when I – my kids were home from school today and I was obviously –

was getting on the early vote train, but they wanted to go see how it was done. We know someone down there. So I walked them down there thinking I'll be in and out. They'll get a quick tour. And there was a line of men. This is a pre, this is an area specifically that area Trump won by 21 points in North Carolina back in 2020. I have never seen a line this long since I moved here. No.

Never. And it was I mean, of course, there are women on it, too, but it was heavily male. It was heavily working class. And the early vote was robust. So I'm just leading to my thinking that I'm going to waltz right in and out of this fire department, you know, in and out. No, sir. That line was around the fire department. I've never seen that before. Charlie, never. Twenty to twenty. It didn't. It has never happened.

So we'll see. Andrew, but not a bad time. Rich. So how much are we anticipating this day of surge for Democrats in the sense that covid? I mean, I think a lot of Democrats just change their voting habits. They went vote early. Right. You know, we got somebody texted us. They were talking to a friend that a lot of Democrats want to vote on Election Day in PA. This was in Pennsylvania because they want their daughter to see them vote for the first woman president.

It sounds like a Twitter thing. It could just be a Twitter thing. Are we seeing that? And then after that, I want to go to North Carolina. I know you're a former home state.

Yeah. So, I mean, that sounds like a social media thing. It really does. But I will tell you, Pennsylvania has at least a residual culture of voting on Election Day. There are a few places where Democrats still do have infrastructure to get out of vote on Election Day. And one of them, of course, is Philadelphia. But we'll see, because, you know, you know this from the work you guys have been doing.

Partisans listen to their party strategy when it comes to the preferred method of voting. When Democrats picked up the mantle in 2020, vote by mail, vote early, vote with friends, vote by mail, get it in, get it banked. It is hard to change that behavior. Look at how difficult it,

was to change it for Republicans, right? Months of research, months of door knocking, months of text messages, months of getting Donald Trump himself to say, vote early, vote early. It takes a lot to change voter behavior. They didn't expect this. This is important for everyone to understand. They did not expect this. And now they're trying to convince everyone they can turn out this huge number in a day because their early voting bombed.

I mean, I'm very skeptical of this. Just like trying to be as impartial as I possibly can, voters listen to the party's preferred method. They are all in on the early vote train. They have been since 2020. And by the way, the wins in Pennsylvania where Fetterman outproposed

outperformed the polls. He didn't do it because he got a huge turnout on election day. He did it because they bank so much more of the early vote than Republicans did like they did in 2020. And they didn't do that this time. It's a reality. It's a reality. A lot of this is spin, you know, they're calling it the plus. So, so, so, so rich, uh, it looks like there's, there's a couple of Philadelphia is its own Island and we'll deal with Pennsylvania later. I have a feeling we're going to have a week long stream on Pennsylvania. I, I,

I could be wrong. I just it doesn't I don't know. Maybe not. Let's just put that aside. I don't make any predictions. But Georgia, Atlanta is sleepy, man. And Milwaukee is sleeping. Those two cities are sleepy. What does that mean? Yeah, that's a bad sign for Harris. I mean, that's the easiest way. Even in North Carolina, where we have Wake County, it's very Democratic. Trump, you want to you want to stay somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 percent. There's two things that that that I think are important. Again, that.

is showing up because they were there doing their early vote thing and they got votes that they needed to get. As many as 20? No, but a decent amount, enough to not get complacent over. But in a place like Milwaukee, we're just not seeing it. I mean, the last number I looked at was 44%. That's awful. And what it means, let's say Republicans didn't turn out in rural counties in a statewide race.

not only will they get less, obviously, less raw votes because of that, but their margins will actually shrink because the turnout advantage to Democrats means they will improve their margins there. If Kamala Harris's

turnout shrinks compared to Donald Trump's, it means his margin will marginally increase as well, even in urban areas. He'll do better in these urban areas because more of his voters are in that electorate, even in urban areas. That's like something that's just a dynamic that tends to happen. So they need these numbers to get up. They do. And I'm not saying that's a Republican. OK, it's over. Go home. It's not. It's not.

But, yeah, I mean, there's hard – it's hard to find a good data point for the Harris campaign where you can point to it and say, there it is. Charlie, we polled these people all the way to the end. There did not seem to be this meaningful break of Republican women that they're arguing for. In fact, they're polling in a few what looks to be outlier polls.

are the only data points suggesting that. You can go to Cuyahoga County, by the way. It's a great source of information. It's real. I'll give it to people real quick. It is MV Red Podcast. They're constantly tracking Cuyahoga County and the returns as they get them from officials. Look at how down, blue areas as of, and this is not updated anymore. We need a new update. But the last one we got, Cleveland, 32%.

Lakewood, 53%. Beachwood, 57%. Shaker Heights, 55%. Those are all blue. Now, Strongsville, red, 55%. North Royalton, 57%. Broadview Heights, 61%. Brecksville, 61%. So what happens when you see turnout disparities like this, even in some of these urban centers, you're going to see more Trump voters in the mix, and he'll wind up even doing better in some of these urban areas if Democrats don't get these shares up.

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plus a free fiber and spice supplement. Use discount code Charlie to get 50% off plus a free fiber and spice supplement. Okay, Rich, you're welcome to make a call, but if it's about Arizona, hold your horses. Pennsylvania. All right, go ahead.

Oh, you want me to say it now? Okay. So, you know, I can't, I can't reveal who I'm getting this from. But again, if you're not, if you don't have people in Pennsylvania who are in the positions to give you this stuff, then you really can't, you can't know. So, you know, not from me, but there is in turnout in Bucks.

it really does appear that it's in all the right places for Donald Trump. So we're breaking down these things, you know, by precincts. Donald Trump narrowly won, narrowly lost, right, is more educated, is not more educated. And the turnout is lower in the D precincts. And all the right places is the is the.

proper way to, you know, just give it the easy breakdown here to make a very, very long story short without going through lower one, lower two, and all these different township precincts. That's the very short end of it. He's doing well in places in Bucks where he would need to to make Bucks close.

And by the way, he lost bucks twice. So it's interesting to know. And there's a bellwether. There are bellwether precincts and townships that I'm going to be looking at immediately when those polls close and those results are reported because you have places like Ben Salem, Charlie, voted for Trump in 16, voted for Biden in 20. You know, they're going to tell us a lot right away. Now, we may not have all of their votes. We're going to get the

early 1st in Pennsylvania. We'll get the early 1st, then we'll get the election day. All right. And then later they have until eight o'clock around Bucks, for instance, there's like 11 drop areas to have until eight o'clock to put that ballot in the drop. And then people will go around and collect them and then we'll have to wait. There are an unusual number of Republican provisional ballots. What happened?

It's just the nature of the beast trying to get them to vote early. If you waited about a week out from Election Day, you probably didn't get your ballot in time and you cannot now just go and vote in person. So they're going to have to vote by provisional ballot. So I'm telling you that not to cause any kind of like disturbance, but last time those provisionals went for Biden pretty significantly.

That is probably not going to be the case this time because a lot of them, you can see it clear as day. A lot of them are the product of Republicans trying to get their vote in early, doing this for the first time, you know, in this robust and just not getting some of their ballots back for their voters in time. Rich, you're doing excellent work. We're going to let you go. Come back later tonight. The stream is going to be on fire right now. We have like 80,000 concurrence, by the way.

Just right now in this afternoon show. It's kind of crazy. So who knows what tonight's going to be? Thank you, guys. It's going to be big. It's crazy. I'm looking at the flags that we're getting in the YouTube channel. We're getting people from Greece, Serbia, Brazil, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, Argentina, Malaysia. We'd love them, but I'd trade them all for a couple from Western Wisconsin right now.

I'll tell you right now, the Wisconsin emails are amazing. I'm not going to make any calls, but that's good energy. It's really good energy. And I doing this a couple election cycles. I can usually tell the type of email you have pattern recognition. I like what I'm seeing out of Wisconsin. This is it, everybody. Five minutes left, guys, in this stream. And then we're going to take a little break for everyone watching at home. And then we are streaming literally all night. We're going to maybe close our eyes for 20 minutes, have a little bit of food.

and we'll be back, what, at 5.30 Eastern? Is that right? And the first post close at 6, right? Yes. Okay. So we'll kind of start 30 minutes ahead. That's in just a couple hours. Do you want to do any prognostication, Charlie? No. You're not in that business? Not in that business. Not anymore. I would say here's what I will say. I retire. I agree with you. I feel increasingly bullish about Wisconsin. I feel a little bit less bullish on Pennsylvania, if I'm being honest. We're getting some reports that some of the precincts in Pittsburgh are—

are really picking up. They're beating their 2020 margins. I don't think that's statewide. I don't think that's in Philly. But that's a sign that you could start seeing the urban core pick up as the day goes on. As people get off work, maybe they clock out early and they had made a plan to vote in the afternoon. I think we all need a brace for the fact that

PA is not going to be some blowout either way. It's going to be a dogfight. To your point, we might be counting votes there for a while. I think Nevada, the Clark County showing in the vote-by-mail... That's going to be a trench fight. Yeah. In Nevada, the vote-by-mail drops are going to be a disaster. Clark County's picking up steam. So, again, we shouldn't make the assumption that 2020 voting patterns are going to hold. The Dems are going to come out on Election Day. I would say...

Apparently, it's like a ghost town in DeKalb, in Fulton, Georgia, in places in North Carolina, in Philly, Milwaukee. That's a really good sign. So we've got some really good signs. And I like some of the breaks that we're getting in Maricopa County where GOP are still outpacing Dems. Look, there's a lot of independents, though. A lot of independents. And this is why I'm not making any calls on anything. If the independents go totally underwater for Trump, we're going to have a long week. If they surprise us and break...

Significantly towards Kamala. Which, to be clear, would be against anything we're hearing on the ground, anything in polling, anything of public attitudes. However, anything is possible. Yeah, but that is... So when we're looking at the landscape of what could go wrong, the Indies could break significantly for Kamala. We could see, because especially in a state like Arizona, we're seeing a lot of Indies. We're actually seeing more Indies than we were anticipating. Yeah.

Yeah, but thankfully it's a small volume. It's still a small volume. Because they were so far behind in the early. Well, and there's an argument to be made that they're going to break 50-50 or even maybe slightly trump. Because there's a lot of working class indies. Of course. And I would say that there's, you know, the...

mood of the country is different. So you can't base everything off of what happened in 2020. You could see more women breaking their family unit vote and essentially lying to their husbands or maybe they're not lying. They're just telling their husbands they're going to vote a certain way. So these are the things we're looking for. And we're going to keep an eye on these these urban cores to see if they pick up. But the fact that they are depressed and enthusiasm is down and there is an enthusiasm gap. You also have to sort of wonder, Charlie, in a place like Pennsylvania, you

a place where Joe Biden had extensive ties, right, politically. Will that same machine that the Democrats have been running, is it going to come out the same way for Kamala? And I think that's an open question. And right now we're not seeing indications that they're going to be doing what they need to. Yeah, look, right now Atlanta,

I'm not going to make any predictions, but Georgia looks good. I'm just going to say that was one thing. I have almost no attachment at State, so I can say, I mean, we have a couple staff, but nothing significant. Yeah, we have significant staff, but yeah. Nothing like Arizona or Wisconsin. It's not like a platoon, right? Yeah. So North Carolina has gotten almost no attention today, by the way.

I think North Carolina is slipping away from them. Someone actually asked Stephen. You think it's slipping away from them? Yeah. I think we're going to win North Carolina by three or four. I don't even want to make a prediction, guys. The thing is that in four hours, five hours, we'll actually have an idea what's going on. So all that matters is you guys need to go empty your phone right now and text every human being that's not a lib. Text every non-lib in your phone. Have you voted? Have you voted? Ask for proof of voting. Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? That's it.

And I want to hear from you guys. And get the app. Get the Turning Point Action app, guys. Look, in Arizona, we have like five hours left of voting. That's a lot of time. So email us, freedom at charliekirk.com. That's freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to hear from you, your voting experience, and how you are bringing first-time voters to the polls. It is so incredibly important. Reminder, we'll be signing hats literally all night. If you become a member, members.charliekirk.com to get your signed hat.

That is members.charliekirk.com. And again, stay in line. If you are in line, they must allow you to vote if you are in line. Stay in line. And look, so we are going to be back in about two hours. So we're going to take a couple hours to recharge, refresh, allow everyone. Are you guys watching the stream? After we're done in about 30 seconds, go text every single one of your friends, right? Now's the time to do that. And we'll be back in two hours with

Probably the most important couple hours of my 12 years. One warning from Rich is Rich is saying don't pay too much attention to the exit polls, even if they're good. Just ignore them. They're white noise.

We're going to come out at around 3 Eastern. All right. I want to hear from you if you have voted for the first time. I want to hear from you if you're getting first-time voters. Bring other people to the polls. Make as much noise as possible. This thing is going to be really tight, everybody. It's going to be really close. The work you do in the next couple hours could determine it. Stay in line. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening, and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.