cover of episode The Last Vigil Before Polls Close

The Last Vigil Before Polls Close

2024/11/5
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People
A
Andrew
专注于解决高质量训练数据和模型开发成本问题的 AI 研究员。
B
Brett Galasiewski
C
Charlie Kirk
J
Josh McCoon
R
Rich Baris
T
Terry Dietrich
T
Tyler Boyer
V
Victor Joecks
Topics
Brett Galasiewski:威斯康星州的投票情况良好,天气适宜,共和党选区投票率很高,而民主党选区投票率较低。与2020年相比,威斯康星州的实地竞选活动效果更好,提前投票的努力卓有成效。威斯康星州圣克鲁瓦县的提前投票率比2022年增加了163%,农村地区的投票率普遍较高。北卡罗来纳州农村地区的投票率很高。埃里克·霍夫德在威斯康星州的竞选势头有所增强,如果投票率高,他将获胜。 Tyler Boyer:转向点行动总部正在进行大规模的电话和短信动员,以提高投票率。转向点行动在亚利桑那州和威斯康星州开展了大规模的选票修复工作,这对于赢得下级选举至关重要。选民联络工作,特别是针对年轻人的选民联络工作,非常有效。转向点行动的选民联络工作取得了巨大的成功,其目标完成率远超预期。转向点行动在提高低投票意愿选民的投票率方面取得了显著进展,这弥补了高投票意愿选民投票率较低的情况。 Charlie Kirk:由外部团体支持的竞选策略并非没有先例,民主党长期以来一直使用这种策略,这种策略比共和党全国委员会的集中模式更有效。威斯康星州允许当天登记投票,而亚利桑那州则不允许。威斯康星州的女性选民投票率将高于往常,这将有利于共和党。威斯康星州正在进行大规模的选票修复工作,这可能是左派没有预料到的。 Josh McCoon:佐治亚州的投票情况良好,农村地区的投票率很高,而亚特兰大市的投票率则相对较低。与2020年相比,佐治亚州城市地区的投票率较低,而农村地区的投票率则较高。佐治亚州的选举诚信团队正在密切关注选举过程,并已对选举相关诉讼取得了胜利。佐治亚州民主党票仓的投票率低于预期,这预示着选举结果可能对共和党有利。 Terry Dietrich:威斯康星州的提前投票率与民主党持平或高于民主党,这与2020年形成了鲜明对比。威斯康星州农村地区的投票率很高,但密尔沃基市仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。威斯康星州的选举诚信团队已部署到各主要县,以监督选举过程。 Victor Joecks:内华达州的选举结果存在不确定性,民主党在克拉克县的领先优势较小,共和党在选举日表现良好。内华达州共和党在选举日取得了领先优势,但民主党在选举日的投票率也有所提高。内华达州共和党在选举日保持领先,但民主党在克拉克县的投票率有所提高。内华达州民主党未能有效动员年轻的黑人和西班牙裔选民,这可能是导致其投票率低于预期的原因。内华达州农村地区的投票率很高,这将有利于共和党。 Rich Baris:宾夕法尼亚州的投票情况复杂,存在大量误导性信息,奥巴马团队正在努力提高投票率。民主党在宾夕法尼亚州的提前投票结果不佳,他们寄希望于选举日的投票率。俄亥俄州库亚霍加县的投票率数据显示,共和党在一些城市地区的表现可能比预期更好。宾夕法尼亚州巴克斯县的投票率数据显示,共和党在一些关键地区表现良好。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Wisconsin considered a key state in the election?

Wisconsin is crucial due to its electoral votes and historical significance in presidential elections. It has a mix of urban and rural areas, making it a battleground for both parties.

How does the weather in Wisconsin affect voter turnout?

Adverse weather, like heavy rain, can deter voters from going to the polls. Clear, mild conditions encourage higher turnout, which was a concern initially but has improved.

What is the significance of early voting in Wisconsin compared to 2020?

In 2020, there was no effective ground game for early voting. This year, there has been a focused effort, leading to higher early voting numbers and a more balanced turnout.

How are rural counties in Wisconsin performing in terms of voter turnout?

Rural counties are seeing a significant increase in returned absentee ballots, with some reporting a 163% increase compared to the previous election cycle.

What is the current situation in North Carolina regarding voter turnout?

North Carolina is reporting long lines in heavy rural areas, similar to trends seen in Wisconsin and Arizona. This indicates strong Republican support in key areas.

How does the mood in the Eric Hovde camp reflect the overall sentiment in Wisconsin?

The Hovde camp has picked up momentum, with strong turnout in Republican strongholds like Pewaukee. This suggests a positive outlook for Republican candidates in the state.

What role does ballot curing play in the election process?

Ballot curing involves correcting errors or omissions on absentee ballots to ensure they are counted. It is crucial in close races to maximize the number of valid votes.

Why is the use of outside groups in election campaigns important?

Outside groups can provide sustained support beyond individual campaigns, ensuring continued efforts in down-ballot races and maintaining a presence in critical states.

How does the experience of first-time voters impact the election?

First-time voters, especially those over 30, can significantly influence the outcome, as their participation was not anticipated in traditional models and can swing results.

What is the significance of the female vote in the election?

The female vote is crucial, particularly among working-class women who may lean Republican. High turnout among this group can offset potential losses in other demographics.

How does the urban core vote typically behave in elections?

Urban cores often see increased turnout as the day progresses, with voters coming out after work. This can boost Democratic numbers in key urban areas.

What challenges does the Harris campaign face in motivating key voter groups?

The Harris campaign struggles to motivate young black and Hispanic voters, which is critical in states like Nevada. This lack of enthusiasm can impact overall turnout.

Why is Pennsylvania considered a difficult state to predict in the election?

Pennsylvania has diverse voting patterns across its regions, making it hard to predict. Urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can swing results, complicating forecasts.

How does the turnout in rural versus urban areas impact the election outcome?

Higher turnout in rural areas, which tend to favor Republicans, can offset lower turnout in urban areas. This dynamic is crucial in close states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Chapters
Charlie Kirk and his team discuss election day turnout in key states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona. They analyze early voting data, ground game efforts, and the potential impact of first-time voters. They express optimism about the overall turnout and the potential for a Republican victory.
  • High early voting return rates in Republican areas of Wisconsin.
  • Long lines reported in rural areas of North Carolina.
  • Increased voter turnout in rural Wisconsin compared to 2022.
  • Largest conservative ballot curing operation in Wisconsin.
  • Focus on getting out the vote, especially among low-propensity voters.
  • Significant number of first-time voters, particularly in Wisconsin and Arizona.

Shownotes Transcript

Polls close in a matter of hours. Where is turnout high? Where is it low? How do things look in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and beyond? Charlie and the crew talk to Brett Galaszewski, Rich Baris, and more, and read a mountain of election-day emails, because right now, all we can do is wait.

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