Wisconsin is crucial due to its electoral votes and historical significance in presidential elections. It has a mix of urban and rural areas, making it a battleground for both parties.
Adverse weather, like heavy rain, can deter voters from going to the polls. Clear, mild conditions encourage higher turnout, which was a concern initially but has improved.
In 2020, there was no effective ground game for early voting. This year, there has been a focused effort, leading to higher early voting numbers and a more balanced turnout.
Rural counties are seeing a significant increase in returned absentee ballots, with some reporting a 163% increase compared to the previous election cycle.
North Carolina is reporting long lines in heavy rural areas, similar to trends seen in Wisconsin and Arizona. This indicates strong Republican support in key areas.
The Hovde camp has picked up momentum, with strong turnout in Republican strongholds like Pewaukee. This suggests a positive outlook for Republican candidates in the state.
Ballot curing involves correcting errors or omissions on absentee ballots to ensure they are counted. It is crucial in close races to maximize the number of valid votes.
Outside groups can provide sustained support beyond individual campaigns, ensuring continued efforts in down-ballot races and maintaining a presence in critical states.
First-time voters, especially those over 30, can significantly influence the outcome, as their participation was not anticipated in traditional models and can swing results.
The female vote is crucial, particularly among working-class women who may lean Republican. High turnout among this group can offset potential losses in other demographics.
Urban cores often see increased turnout as the day progresses, with voters coming out after work. This can boost Democratic numbers in key urban areas.
The Harris campaign struggles to motivate young black and Hispanic voters, which is critical in states like Nevada. This lack of enthusiasm can impact overall turnout.
Pennsylvania has diverse voting patterns across its regions, making it hard to predict. Urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can swing results, complicating forecasts.
Higher turnout in rural areas, which tend to favor Republicans, can offset lower turnout in urban areas. This dynamic is crucial in close states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Polls close in a matter of hours. Where is turnout high? Where is it low? How do things look in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and beyond? Charlie and the crew talk to Brett Galaszewski, Rich Baris, and more, and read a mountain of election-day emails, because right now, all we can do is wait.
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