cover of episode Liz Cheney: Kamala’s Silent Killer?

Liz Cheney: Kamala’s Silent Killer?

2024/10/22
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Key Insights

Why is Kamala Harris teaming up with Liz Cheney?

Kamala Harris is teaming up with Liz Cheney to win over center-to-center-right Republicans who are disaffected with Trump.

Why might Kamala Harris's strategy with Liz Cheney backfire?

The strategy could backfire due to Liz Cheney's unpopularity among both Democrats and Republicans, potentially causing base decay.

Why are some Arab-American voters supporting Trump?

Arab-American voters are supporting Trump because they believe he will bring more peace than destruction, contrasting with Kamala Harris's warmongering stance.

Why is early voting data important in predicting the election outcome?

Early voting data is crucial as it can indicate trends that, if sustained, could predict the election outcome without needing to wait for Election Day results.

Why might the Kamala Harris campaign be concerned about base decay?

The campaign might be concerned about base decay due to Harris's failure to energize her base and her courting of unpopular figures like Liz Cheney.

Why is the abortion issue potentially significant in the election?

The abortion issue could be significant as it is a highly personal and potent topic that might energize voters more than current polling suggests.

Why might the Kamala Harris campaign be betting on a hidden abortion vote?

The campaign might bet on a hidden abortion vote as it has historically been an issue that overperforms in ballot measures compared to polling.

Why are some Latino and Arab-American voters shifting towards Trump?

These voters are shifting towards Trump primarily due to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration's policies on immigration and cultural issues.

Chapters

Charlie Kirk and Mark Halperin discuss Kamala Harris's strategy of teaming up with Liz Cheney and analyze the current state of the race.
  • Kamala Harris is attempting to turn the tide by teaming up with Liz Cheney.
  • Mark Halperin provides insights on the current state of the race.

Shownotes Transcript

hey everybody today in charlie kirk show we have mark halpern who breaks on the state of the race producer andrew co-pilot so i can save my voice as we are about to go to the university of georgia for more fun email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com subscribe to our podcast open up your podcast application type in charlie kirk show buckle up everybody here we go charlie what you've done is incredible here maybe charlie kirk is on the college campus i want you to know we are lucky to have charlie kirk charlie kirk's running the white house folks i

I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.

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I have my co-pilot producer Andrew here for many reasons. The most importantly, I can't lose my voice again, Andrew. You're starting to sound a little questionable, Charlie. Yeah, it happens when you talk eight hours a day.

It's true. I was with him all day yesterday and it was basically nonstop talking and much, much of it cannot be avoided. So unfortunately. Yeah, I have to do a better job of conserving my voice when I don't need to talk, but helpful to have a co-pilot today. I just want to remind everybody to go vote. Andrew, the early voting stories are coming in. They're amazing. Well, the early voting story across the country. We should say that, I mean, from Georgia to Pennsylvania to even Arizona, Nevada, a

A lot of people are saying that the voting, the betting sites, the odds are going in Trump's favor because conservatives are jumping in. They're catching the vibe, whatever. No, they're going up because of early voting trends. That's actually what's moving the betting markets. Again, we're the first ones to tell you we don't care about the polls. We don't care about the betting markets. We observe them. We watch them. We keep our eyes on them. We care about ballots in the box at the end of the day. And that's actually what's most important.

promising about a state like Arizona. Charlie, you released a tweet. I recommend everybody go check out Charlie's ex account right now. There was a really important tweet that you authored yesterday about updates in Arizona. So if I could summarize it for the audience, it basically said that at this exact point in 2020, we were down in early voting to the Democrats statewide by 10%, 10.4%.

This year, we are up 7.6%. That is a net shift of 18 points in state 48. So that's a huge, huge testament to the ground game operation that we've built. Now that

caveat, right? That doesn't mean we're going to win the state. We don't know how the Indies are going to break. So this is Republican versus Democrat, and about a third of the state is independent. And if you are at least above water with Indies, you're probably going to be okay. If you turn out your base. So people are asking, what are the Indies going to break? Well, historically, in Arizona, they break about 50-50, if not slightly in the Republicans' favor. That doesn't mean that's going to happen this time. So we can't

count any of our chickens. Right. So all I would say is this is a very, very promising start, especially when you compare it to 2020, uh, and, and remind the audience we lost by, or we lost, we, we fell short about 10,000 ballots. Okay. So we're in, we're in a good spot, at least in Arizona. We know for sure we're in a good spot. Um,

Really couldn't ask for anything more, Charlie. So, yeah, and it's interesting. It seems as if early voting were up on average about 20 to 25 points state by state versus 2020. It's an interesting Georgia, North Carolina. That seems to be the moving average. Yeah, well, and if you look at Georgia, for example, we're getting updates regularly from Georgia state we're in right now.

And it looks like the rurals are just coming out of the woodwork. I mean, these people are like crawling over glass to get to the ballot box early. And what's also really promising, Charlie, in the states where we have

data on this, like Nevada and Arizona, we can tell we're not cannibalizing our vote that usually shows up on day of. We're actually getting new voters to the polls, including low prop. We're talking zero out of four, one out of four. And if you're not familiar with what that means, that means out of the last four election cycles,

Did that person vote zero times out of the last four or one out of four? So those would be what we call our low prop voters, low prop propensity voters. And they are coming out of the woodwork. Our messaging, our ground game is working. Yeah. And I just we have a picture here we can throw up on screen. I don't know if we can do it in time. This is one individual from our chase the vote strategy where this guy is a guy by the name of Reno. And it is his first time voting since John McCain.

And so that is a net new vote for Donald Trump. He has not voted for 16 years.

Just to put up on screen, that's Reno. We have thousands of these voters that Turning Point Action is bringing into the fold. So this is not just, oh, we're bringing out voters that are, no, this is the lowest of all low propensity, right? This is a person that would not have voted if it was not for Turning Point Action. Now, it's very interesting. Where a candidate spends his or her time is the most telling and the most valuable thing.

So, for example, today, President Donald Trump on Tuesday, October 22nd, is doing a rally in North Carolina. Tomorrow, actually, we're hosting President Donald Trump in Georgia. We're going to have a big event with Donald Trump in Georgia. We're hosting Donald Trump on Wednesday in Vegas, two Trump events this week that we are hosting. What is Kamala Harris doing? Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney. Hmm.

And so why would Kamala Harris be traveling the country with Liz Cheney?

It's obvious, and we've seen this through multiple different advertisements, multiple different messaging strategies. The data is screaming at her that she is losing center-to-center-right Republicans so significantly that there are not enough left-wing activist types to make up the gap. She's also taking her base for granted, which I think is a very dangerous thing, Kamala. You don't know your base. We've been on the ground. They are not nearly on.

And in favor of you like you think they are. I think Democrats are going to have serious base decay, two or three points. I think this is a miscalculation in a lot of different ways. Traveling the country with Liz Cheney is what a Democrat consultant thinks that Republican voters want. When in reality, Liz Cheney is deeply unpopular both to Democrats.

Any conservative that might be somewhat open-minded to voting for Kamala. But secondly, Liz Cheney is a great way to turn off Democrat base voters. So

So Kamala Harris is parading around someone who literally that family was called a war crime family. In just a couple of years ago, there was a movie by the name of Vice. Do you remember this movie? It was a movie called Vice where the entire movie is how like Dick Cheney is a war criminal. Yes. Who took over the entire, it was actually very well done. Yeah. That was like five or six years ago, how the media viewed the Cheney family. And now he is going on a tour. She's going on a tour. Yeah.

with Liz Cheney to try and put country over party. First of all, it's great news that she's doing this because this means that she knows that she cannot win without people on our side. There's three points. The second point is that I think this is going to result in Democrat base decay. The third point, everybody, is if we turn out, we're going to get very close to victory. Okay, let's go to here. Let's play cut 33.

Surprised. Are you surprised that you're out here campaigning for a Democrat, campaigning for Kamala Harris against the party that you've been a part of your entire life? You know, what I would say, first of all, is we all know everyone who watched January 6th knows, you know, what Donald Trump is willing to do. He lost the election yesterday.

He tried to overturn it and seize power. And then he sat in his dining room and he watched the attack on television. First of all, anyone who finds Liz Cheney persuasive is not our type of voter. Do you have a truth social you want to mention here, Andrew?

Well, yeah, I mean, it ties into some of the other points you were making. But, yeah, I mean, first of all, to Liz Cheney point, Charlie, the people of Wyoming don't find Liz Cheney to be very persuasive. That's certainly true. She lost, I mean, in a landslide to Harriet Hageman. So, yeah, yesterday we were at Georgia State. We were also at UNC in Raleigh.

But I got into a conversation with a bunch of Muslim young men that were extraordinarily upset with Kamala Harris. And that actually surprised me because they admitted that their one issue is Israel and

But they would rather take Trump than Kamala. And Trump put out a social post about this on Truth. Arab voters are very upset with comrade Kamala Harris, the worst vice president in the history of the United States and a low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a rock war hawk Liz Cheney.

who, like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go into war in the Middle East. And it goes on. But they were in agreement with this. They said Liz Cheney and Kamala Harris are going to kill more Arabs. They felt convicted of that. Yeah, again, I think Kamala Harris is flirting with base decay, the likes of which she doesn't quite realize.

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I think that we are facing a choice in this election. It's not about party. It's about right and wrong. And I certainly have many Republicans who will say to me,

I can't be public. They do worry about a whole range of things, including violence. But they'll do the right thing. And I would just remind people, if you're at all concerned, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody. And there will be millions of Republicans who do that on November 5th. Vote for President Harris. Coward.

So this is one of their big bets, everybody, just so we're clear. The Kamala Harris campaign is betting on the quiet anti-Trump voter.

that there are millions of anti-Trump Republicans embedded in very deep red areas, and it's going to be just enough to tilt it. So I want to go back to this idea of base decay. What she's doing is underestimating how deeply unpopular the war hawks are, these warmongers, Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney, John Bolton. There was 200 McCain, Romney, ex-staffers or whatever people.

So she's courting the center right and the center left, the middle. And meanwhile, I'm sitting at a college campus and these Muslim kids that are voting for Trump. I mean, they were rocking MAGA hats. They took a picture with Charlie. And a lot of young black men. Yeah, absolutely. By the way, we were in downtown Atlanta. No, there was like four white people.

Yeah, I mean, and I was one of them. And Charlie, I mean, we were in downtown. Yeah, no, absolutely. But but to see like a see a red in that in that scene was pretty powerful. And what I will say is, you know, I said, is all of your family voting for Trump as well? And they said, well, about half and half. And I said, OK, what were the other half doing?

And they said that they are now working on in the mosques trying to get Jill Stein. And apparently this is like nationwide. So from Minnesota, Michigan, they're nationwide working to get Jill Stein up over 5%. That's their new mission in life because they want to get her a place on the debate stage.

And so that's that's a huge development because apparently this is this is happening nationwide. Now, I want you to throw up image 40. This is a general election poll among Arab-Americans.

Trump, 45. Harris, 43. And Stein, 4. So that Stein, 4 is nowhere. This is how you win Michigan. This is how you win Michigan? This is how you make them real nervous about a lot of races in Minnesota? This is, I mean, I think, you know, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. But essentially, when Trump went on the, and they mentioned this to me, when Trump went on the stage with Caitlin Collins, this is apparently a clip that they play still in their communities.

And they asked him about Ukraine. They go, what's your, what are you going to, are you going to bomb Russia? You're going to, you know, what are you going to do? And Trump just says, I want peace. I want an end of the killing and destruction. And to them, they know Trump has been friends with BB net Yahoo for a long time, but they still say, we think Trump is going to, to bring peace, more peace than destruction. And so I think Trump has played this perfectly. I think you're absolutely right. Base decay is going to be a real problem for her. And here's the other thing. I think Trump,

Trying to get conservatives to peel away and Republicans, even though there has been a strong never Trump faction, I think that is baked into the cake. I think we saw it in 2016. I think we saw it in 2020. And all of those things combined, we still only saw 2016.

Trump fought 42,000 ballots short in three states, 42,000 ballots in three states. We have way more tailwinds behind us in this election than in that. And so I just think she's she's barking up the wrong tree. I think it's a strategic misadventure. Let's go deeper into this. The country has become profoundly more center right and is rejecting wokeism or leftism or whatever you want to call it. Mm hmm.

And the way that Kamala receives that data is that some genius says, well, let's go do a tour with Liz Cheney. As if Liz Cheney is a way to keep your base and also broaden yourself to Republicans. Here's Kamala Harris invoking World War II and Pearl Harbor in order to justify the implementation of Liz Cheney's warmongering goals. Play cut 39. This concept of isolation...

We were once there as a nation. And then Pearl Harbor happened. We then when we got attacked, Pearl Harbor, we jumped in. And it is because America jumped in that we were ultimately able to win that war. And it should be a constant reminder to us. We have to remember history that isolationism, which is exactly what Donald Trump is pushing.

Pull out of NATO, abandon our friends. Isolationism is not insulation. Man, I'm telling you, she is playing with fire with her base. The young Turk people hate this kind of shit. I'm telling you, she's going to see base decay because of this. Be careful turning your back on your most faithful voters to go find warmongers.

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Super excited for our guest here, who has really been, I would say, the most accurate reporter of the 2024 election. And honestly, the most interesting, because he's an honest, old school journalist that doesn't really have...

a political bend. He just tells the facts and that's such a rarity, isn't it, Andrew? Yeah, he's, I mean, I hear Mark Halperin's name. Sorry, I blew the surprise, but I hear it literally on a daily basis. He's been terrific. Mark, welcome back to the program. Mark is from Two Way TV, which is amazing. You guys should check it out. It is twowaytv.com.

Mark, you've been ahead of the curve here for a couple of weeks. You've been kind of whispering and saying, hey, guys, the data is not as good as you might think if you're on the left. And if you're in the Democrat Party, based on your broadcast on two way TV, it is universally agreed on all sides that there's been a shift in Trump's direction the last two weeks.

What do you attribute this to, Mark? I think partially it is just that Republicans tend to close better in recent presidential elections than Democrats. Is there something else at play here? Well, definitely attribute that. Thank you both for your kind words. And I am just an old fashioned reporter. I'm for the American people. So I'm not rooting for Donald Trump or rooting for Kamala Harris. I'm just trying to report what's happening and allow people to understand as best I can do that from talking to sources on both sides.

In this case, I think there may be something to what you're saying, Republicans closing strong. I also think, as I have since Kamala Harris ascended to the nomination, that the basic question was, would she be defined as a good steward of a good economy, as someone who'd be a fierce commander-in-chief, or would she be defined on the terms of the Trump campaign, weak, failed, and dangerously liberal?

And I think through the actions of Donald Trump himself, through their advertising, and through Kamala Harris's failure to directly address the hardest questions she gets when she talks to reporters, I think a lot of the undecided voters have shifted to Trump, either feeling they don't know enough about her or feeling that she's too liberal

or feeling insulted that she's not answering the questions. Yeah, so Mark, let's dive into some news yesterday. Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney on a country over party tour, which we imagine just kind of looking at this from the outside is them. They're looking at their internals thinking that they have to win over more Republicans,

Would you say that is likely their strategy right now, that they have to win over center-right, disaffected Republicans in order to achieve electoral success? Well, they don't just have one challenge. And it's shame to true of the Trump campaign. There's not a single demographic that they're going for. But there's no doubt that the Harris campaign has shifted a little bit.

with this focus on not just Liz Cheney and disaffected Republicans who may have voted for Nikki Haley in a primary or a caucus, but more back to the Biden message of this is about January 6th and about whether Donald Trump's fit to hold office, not engaging on the economy as much, not engaging on

on abortion as much, although they're still talking about those two issues. But this seems to be their dominant closing argument. The challenge they have is they still have other problems, particularly young men, men of color, Hispanic men and Latino men and black men in a demographic that, of course, exists across all seven battleground states. They also have a problem with Jewish voters and Arab and Muslim American voters and

And they've also got a problem with working class voters. So and men generally. So, again, Trump campaign has its own demographic issues to address as well. But part of the challenge to the vice president is she's got some narrow issues with demographics and some broad issues with demographics. And finding the ability to message all those things at once has proven to be a challenge for her. And I think that's a big part of why she is behind right now.

So, Mark, I took some notes from your wonderful conversation with Tucker Carlson, and correct me if this is incorrect, but you basically said that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on four things. And I'm of the camp that I think this race is actually far closer than some of the bulls in Trump world say. I think that it's far closer than even the betting market suggests. And I think these four things we really need to think about for those of us that enthusiastically want to see Donald Trump return.

You argue that the Kamala Harris campaign believes that the abortion vote is a hidden vote and it's not really popping up in the data, that they have a ground game that is superior to Donald Trump's. They believe that and that they have an old fashioned organizer either as a campaign manager or is in senior leadership of their campaign, that they believe that the female vote or the woman vote is going to be even greater than polling suggests. And this will truly be the battle of the sexes. And women do tend to vote at higher rates than men.

And finally, that there is an unappreciated Trump fatigue or a Trump ceiling that is going to manifest in some of these states. Is that a correct summary of the four things that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on? Well, I'd also add the rank incompetence of the people doing turnout for President Trump. Just kidding.

That was a joke, Charlie. I used to laugh at that. Yes, that is a good list. I'm laughing, Mark. All right. That is a good list. And although my sources, including my independent sources, I've got some secret sources who are just independent analysts of the data. And even though they'd all say Trump is the favorite, that list –

is why if Kamala Harris wins the election, I won't be surprised at all. Because we're dealing with a cycle coming out of COVID

with a replacement candidate with trump on the ballot for the third time with all the lawfare and the assassinations all the things that have gone on this is a cycle that that that even the best pollsters will tell you very difficult to get a read on so you're i think i think you know from a both a a a practical point of view and a sanity point of view i think your posture

is probably a better one than the folks in Mar-a-Lago who are already measuring the drapes in different cabinet departments and the Oval Office. It could be Trump wins easily. I don't think a Harris easy victory is in the cards. Could be a Trump easy win, but it could be a very narrow Trump loss as well. And the reasons I listed that you repeated back, I think are the main reasons to think

that this could produce a surprise for those who currently believe, as my sources do, that Trump has got the upper hand. So let's dive into one of them, which is the abortion topic. Mark, have you seen data in recent elections, let's say the last 20 years, where an issue that is not popping in the public issue surveys ends up being determinative or a kind of secret issue, if you will? Have you ever seen evidence of that? Yeah.

It's a great question. It's a little bit of a difficult thing to kind of get an apples to apples comparison on. But I would say in 2016, some of the issues related to forever wars, some of the issues related to economics, some of the cultural issues that Donald Trump talked about, I don't think you would have seen in the polling leading up to Election Day. And depending on how the questions were asked, wouldn't necessarily have even seen it in the exit poll questions.

I think those issues were more powerful in allowing Donald Trump to narrowly beat Hillary Clinton than the polling leading up to the election suggested, in part because people didn't think to ask about it in the level of detail they should have. That's not one issue. That's a cluster of issues. But that's the dynamic I'm talking about, which is it's not like the polls don't take into account abortion.

and reproductive freedom. It's not like it isn't talked about a lot in the media, but it could be it's a more energizing issue for who actually decides to vote rather than how they vote that makes the difference.

I tend to agree. Again, I'm a contrarian by nature, and I am in far too many group text messages that are a little too cocky for my liking and a little bit too bullish. And I say, guys, I say, first of all, this issue is a thermonuclear issue that is far bigger than trade policy. I'm sorry. It just there's a potency. There's a personal nature to this issue that that is unlike anything else. And so this is important.

Mark, let me say this. Democrats in all of their blogs and in their intelligentsia would repeat this phrase since the reversal of Roe or, you know, the Dobbs decision. We have overperformed every poll.

Is that largely correct? It is largely correct. It's been in ballot measures, which are different kettle of fish than a presidential election. But yes, there's not a single that I know of, at least it's certainly generally true that on these ballot measures, they pass much more overwhelmingly than the polling suggested.

Andrew, do you have a thought here for Mark? Yeah, I'm looking for a clip, Mark. I wanted to get your reaction to it, but I'll describe it for you here. Harry Anton went viral. Yes. And I mean, you know, he's basically out there saying that Trump is bleeding support with white, non-college educated people.

And it's slight, but it's such a huge portion of the pie here. So are you seeing that in any of the internals that you're reviewing? Charlie immediately checked with the Trump campaign. They're saying they're not seeing that in their data. We're not seeing it in our data, but apparently it's out there in someone's data. Yeah. I mean, Harry is a friend of mine. He's a very good analyst. I think –

You know, a lot of the data he's brought forward over the last couple of weeks have cut has cut in the other direction. I've not seen that consistently over polls. And if it were happening in using the word bleeding, Trump wouldn't be ahead in these battleground states where he is largely either even or ahead. So I don't think that's I don't think that's a real thing, but it's worth watching. I think the bigger problem Trump might have is with turnout.

rather than who people are saying they're for, is getting his folks to the polls. Because Trump is dependent to win, and Mar-a-Lago will tell you this, on lower propensity voters. That's what you all have been focused on, because turning out those folks is a challenge. But if you succeed, you change not just the outcome of the election, you change the electorate, if you can get these people to be part of the MAGA coalition. How much should we glean or read into early voting?

So Republicans are off to a quick start in early voting comparative to prior elections. In fact, as of this broadcast right now, Republicans are enjoying elite and early voting in Arizona because they do party affiliation. It,

Is this can this be misleading or how how predictive can early voting trends be? Well, the more of it that comes in, the more predictive or determinative I would say it is. In fact, and again, this is a big if so I say if if if if the current early vote data stays on this trajectory.

We won't need to vote on Election Day to know who's going to win. Right now, Republicans are doing so well in the early vote, not as well as Democrats, but they don't need to. The delta between Republicans and Democrats this time so far is so small and Republicans' advantage on Election Day voting so large that if this continues, we will know on Election Day before the polls open that Donald Trump has won.

That is scaring Democrats. They're hoping that the first few days are an aberration and they open up a big lead. They will not open up, even under the most optimistic scenario for Democrats, the same size lead they had in 2020. But they need a bigger lead, substantially bigger lead in these states. And in Nevada, Nevada, always say it wrong.

which is by acclamation, according to my sources, the best of the seven states for Kamala Harris. The current early vote is disastrous for her, including Clark County, where Vegas is the biggest county by far in the state. So if this continues and this is more important for folks who want to understand where the election's headed, this is way more important than any poll you'll read.

If this continues, as I said, you'll wake up on Election Day. You will not need to wait to see who votes on Election Day because Trump's lead will Trump's Trump's ability to win on Election Day will be unquestioned. Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. A large retail store just canceled a huge order, leaving my pillow with a ton of extra pillows.

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So, Mark, if you were to be talking to a Democrat audience and you would try to describe to them if they're confused why they're doing worse with Latino voters, for example, a USA Today Suffolk poll. And I think this is a little bit rich, to be honest, but it shows Donald Trump up 11 points with Latino voters. Again, I think that's a little bit strange.

a little bit over the top, why they're doing worse with Arab American voters, so on and so forth. What would your explanation be, just factual to a Democrat who's not in the space all the time that is trying to understand why they're underperforming with some of their key demographics? The primary reason would be what I headlined my newsletter this morning, a multiracial working class revolt.

Primarily on inflation. These folks are not revolting and turning to the Democrats for any reason different than the greatest strength Donald Trump has. They feel very frustrated by the economy and their role in it.

And they're turning towards the candidate who they think is more likely to be able to deal with inflation. A lot of them don't like the open border. A lot of them don't like some of the cultural issues that the Biden-Harris administration has taken positions on. But I would say primarily,

The primary issue for them is the economy. And then culturally, Donald Trump has always had, as an entertainer, as a television host, and as a politician, he's always had an appeal to men, and particularly younger men, through lifestyle things. And we've seen him

on podcasts, on TV, broadcasting cable, and streaming. He's making an explicit appeal to those groups, and the vice president has not countered it. Joe Biden had somewhat of the same problem. The vice president has not countered that in policy or in culture in a way that's allowed her to win back the percentage that she would need to win of those groups.

So just in closing here, as we get closer and closer to the election, I mean, we're two weeks out here. And in some ways, the die is mainly cast. So what, if anything, could change this race? Mark, I guess from your expertise, considering that early voting is already beginning and as we do this broadcast, hundreds of thousands of people are voting today. Have you ever seen in this modern era, like,

Any news cycle change things? I mean, we had the Comey, Hillary Clinton story, but are you of the belief that what is happening is already what's going to happen is already underway and it's going to largely go in interrupted? Or is there anything that could potentially on the margins change things?

I think that the bar for an October surprise having a true impact on the race is pretty high. We've already seen assassination attempts and the replacement of one party's presidential nominee and lots of other high wattage events. So I think the bar is pretty high. I think if Kamala Harris successfully repelled a Martian invasion, I think that'd probably be something that would affect the trajectory of the race. But that's pretty much where I'm putting the bar, guys. If it's Martian invasion or higher,

is what it's going to require for the trajectory of this race to change. Mark Halperin, Two Way TV, thank you so much. Come back soon and very insightful and very fair. Thank you. Thank you. Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com. I think Mark is so fair and so analytical. And I just want to, two things can be simultaneously true, everybody. We could be starting very strong in early voting and the Democrats can have a couple surprises up their sleeve. And I want to go through the list. The abortion,

topic, their ground game, the woman vote and Trump fatigue and ceiling. If those four things happen, we're going to have a much closer race than people think. Right. I think I don't I don't buy into number four, Trump fatigue or ceiling. I don't see any evidence of that. I don't. The woman vote is a legit thing. Well, and I'll tell you, I was speaking with, you know, somebody, a young woman, college student at your event yesterday. I asked her in North Carolina, North Carolina, are you going to be voting for Trump? She said yes.

I said, what are your top issues? She said, immigration. And then I said, what about abortion? So I asked and she said, well, I do think people should have access to abortion. And I struggle with that. And I remember going, you know, OK, this, you know, even with one of our own.

This is this is a potential issue. So, you know, I noted it. I flagged it. But, you know, I will tell you that I think that, you know, I take a lot of solace in that Cook political report. And we mentioned it briefly, but it bears repeating that the expectation when Kamala entered the race was that she was going to exceed Joe Biden's margin amongst women. That has not happened. But in fact, she's lost more with men.

So if those two things are actually true, I don't see a way that she can make up the margins unless she ends up doing better with...

non-college educated working class voters. But even still, if she's not doing better with women and she's doing worse with men, I mean, the goose is cooked. Again, there could be a lot of wives that are lying to their husband who they're voting for. That's another element. I think women are just realizing, I mean, the dumbest thing in this election is that you're supposed to vote for Kamala because she's a woman.

So insulted. Email us freedom at charliekirk.com. Your successful early voting stories. We'll be sharing them throughout the hour. Go vote. Go vote. Go vote right now. Make it too big to rig. Swarm the polls. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.