cover of episode Liz Cheney: Kamala’s Silent Killer?

Liz Cheney: Kamala’s Silent Killer?

2024/10/22
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A
Andrew
专注于解决高质量训练数据和模型开发成本问题的 AI 研究员。
C
Charlie Kirk
L
Liz Cheney
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Mark Halperin
Topics
Charlie Kirk:本期节目讨论了2024年美国总统大选的最新形势,特别关注了早期投票结果、特朗普和哈里斯的竞选策略以及关键选民群体的投票意向。Kirk 认为,共和党在早期投票中取得了显著领先,这表明他们的竞选策略有效。他还批评了哈里斯与利兹·切尼合作的策略,认为这可能会导致民主党支持者流失。此外,他还分析了不同选民群体,例如穆斯林选民和阿拉伯裔美国选民的投票倾向,并认为特朗普在这些群体中拥有较高的支持率。 Andrew:Andrew 在节目中提供了大量数据,支持了 Kirk 的观点。他详细分析了亚利桑那州、佐治亚州等多个州的早期投票结果,并指出共和党在这些州的领先优势。他还强调了 Turning Point Action 在选民动员方面取得的成功,以及低投票倾向选民的积极参与。 Liz Cheney:切尼在节目中的一段录音中表示,她鼓励共和党人根据自己的良心投票,即使这意味着投票支持哈里斯。她认为特朗普试图推翻选举结果并夺取权力。 Mark Halperin:Halperin 对当前大选形势进行了分析,他认为哈里斯的竞选策略存在问题,她未能成功地将自己塑造成一个优秀的经济管理者或强有力的领导人,这导致一些摇摆不定的选民转向支持特朗普。他还指出,哈里斯在一些特定人群中支持率较低,例如年轻男性、有色人种男性、西班牙裔男性、拉丁裔男性、黑人男性、犹太裔选民、阿拉伯裔和穆斯林裔美国选民以及工薪阶层选民和男性。Halperin 还分析了哈里斯竞选团队的四个主要假设:堕胎问题是隐藏的投票因素;哈里斯的竞选团队拥有更强的组织能力;女性选民的支持率会高于民调显示的水平;存在被低估的特朗普疲劳感或特朗普支持率上限。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Kamala Harris teaming up with Liz Cheney?

Kamala Harris is teaming up with Liz Cheney to win over center-to-center-right Republicans who are disaffected with Trump.

Why might Kamala Harris's strategy with Liz Cheney backfire?

The strategy could backfire due to Liz Cheney's unpopularity among both Democrats and Republicans, potentially causing base decay.

Why are some Arab-American voters supporting Trump?

Arab-American voters are supporting Trump because they believe he will bring more peace than destruction, contrasting with Kamala Harris's warmongering stance.

Why is early voting data important in predicting the election outcome?

Early voting data is crucial as it can indicate trends that, if sustained, could predict the election outcome without needing to wait for Election Day results.

Why might the Kamala Harris campaign be concerned about base decay?

The campaign might be concerned about base decay due to Harris's failure to energize her base and her courting of unpopular figures like Liz Cheney.

Why is the abortion issue potentially significant in the election?

The abortion issue could be significant as it is a highly personal and potent topic that might energize voters more than current polling suggests.

Why might the Kamala Harris campaign be betting on a hidden abortion vote?

The campaign might bet on a hidden abortion vote as it has historically been an issue that overperforms in ballot measures compared to polling.

Why are some Latino and Arab-American voters shifting towards Trump?

These voters are shifting towards Trump primarily due to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration's policies on immigration and cultural issues.

Chapters
Charlie Kirk and Mark Halperin discuss Kamala Harris's strategy of teaming up with Liz Cheney and analyze the current state of the race.
  • Kamala Harris is attempting to turn the tide by teaming up with Liz Cheney.
  • Mark Halperin provides insights on the current state of the race.

Shownotes Transcript

While Charlie barnstorms across America college campuses whipping up the youth vote, Kamala Harris is looking to turn the tide by teaming up with…Liz Cheney? Andrew and Charlie dissect Kamala’s strange gambit, then talk to Mark Halperin about where the race stands right now.

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