How Nuno has transformed Forest
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The Athletic FC Podcast Network.

Welcome to the Athletic FC podcast, I'm Ian Irving. Another week, another beaten opponent, another milestone notched for Nottingham Forest. It's Ward-Prowse, it's Alwany, it's six wins in a row in the Premier League for Nottingham Forest. So, how have Nuno Espirito Santos' side gone from fighting relegation and PSR last campaign to being one of the very best sides in the Premier League this time around?

I'm joined today by the Athletics Nottingham Forest writer Paul Taylor as well as Tim Spears who knows the Forest boss very well from his time covering Wolves. Paul of course older listeners will know all about some of the great sides that Forest have had in the early years of the Premier League. Further back than that the historic side under Brian Clough that won back-to-back European Cups but in all your time as a journalist and a fan covering the club

How much have you enjoyed this year? Oh, it's been incredible. I've been covering Forest for 20 years and when I first started, it was where they'd just been relegated to League One under Gary Megson. So it's better than that then? It's a little bit better than that. I remember the fans on the terraces at Oldham screaming for him to go when they were 3-0 down at half-time. That was probably the low point and now here we are. When you first took on the job, I kind of thought they'd be in the Premier League within a few years. So it's been a long, long wait. It took 20 years

23 years for them to get back there. But now they're here and I think

it's a bit cliche, but I think the fans deserve it. You know, they've been so patient and they've waited so long for just a, you know, a tiny glimmer of joy, a glimmer of hope that they could one day get back to the heights that they once reached under Brian Clough and then again under Frank Clark. It's been so long. So it's nice for fans that they can, whatever happens this season, it's already been such a wild ride and such a great adventure that it'll be a season to remember almost no matter what happens from this point on.

Yeah, OK. I mean, Tim, from the outside, watching Nottingham Forest, it only feels like a few months ago that we were all criticising the way that the club was being run and the way that the signings were being made. They were almost a laughingstock when they first came back into the Premier League because of how many players they'd signed, how much money was spent. But look at them now.

Yeah, I mean, laughingstock's the right term, I think. When they signed, what was it, 22 players, Tales, in that summer of 2022? And, you know, players that didn't even play for the club, you know, coming in for big money and some that weren't even registered in the squad that season. But somehow, I guess the turning point for Forest was at the end of that season, wasn't it? They were, I think, sort of 19th heading into the final weeks of the season and won three out of three home games to basically stay up. You know, if they'd gone down that season, then...

you know, tails would probably be current and back in league one again, because the financial situation would have been catastrophic. You know, we know the troubles they've had with PSI even after, after staying up. So,

It is amazing that, you know, and then just a few months after that, you know, Cooper's gone and Nuno comes in and you're almost kind of saying the rest is history already. So it's not the textbook way to do it, but somehow, yeah, they've got there. Yeah, you mentioned PSL. We'll talk to Matt Slater later on in the podcast about Forrest's situation with that last season. But on the pitch, I mean...

Why is it so different to last year, Paul? I mean, how bad was it for periods of last season in terms of how much of a struggle for Forest it was to stay in the Premier League?

I think there's a couple of things that kind of provide a bit of perspective on that in the sense that when Nuno came in, it was the first time he'd taken on a job, I think, in the middle of a season. I think every other job he'd had, it started in the summer. So it was the first time he'd ever sort of been parachuted into a club when the season was underway. And he admitted himself, he found it difficult to forge the kind of bond relationship

that he had with his players at other clubs. It took him a while to get to know the players, to get that sense of unity that has really been at the core of everything that's been special this season. And I think the other thing that changed

in the summer and even before that in the last two or three windows you refer to that season where they signed 22 players in the summer and 29 overall there was some degree of necessity to that it was slightly scattergun it was very scattergun in fact but they did have to sign a lot of players because the core of their squad was built around loan signings and players frankly weren't good enough for the

But what has come to light since then in the last two or three windows is how good the recruitment's been. You look at the signing of Murillo, Milenkovic, Anderson, selling Flakadimos for £20 million. What a deal that was. They've done such good business that they've brought in key players who've just made a massive, massive difference. Murillo and Milenkovic, an absolutely superb defensive partnership. Anderson's made a massive difference in the central midfield. You know,

In the opening weeks of the season, Nuno lost his starting midfield duo of Danilo and Sangere. And you almost forget it because they've not been missed. You know, what they've done is fill the void so brilliantly. And I think at the core of it, it's been good recruitment,

And Nuno having that pre-season to get his identity and his ethos ingrained into the team and get that unity and togetherness that's been at the very heart of everything they've done this season. It's definitely worked. There's no question about that. Let's talk about the Forest boss then, Nuno Espírito Santo. Tim, you covered him during his time in charge of Wolves. You wrote a piece for The Athletic as well about him before he took over at Forest. Has it played out how you thought it would at the city ground for him?

I mean, I've written lots of pieces on him, including one when he got the Spurs job saying, yeah, you know, stick with him. He'll do great. I mean, I remember when he was appointed to Forrest, I felt like I was kind of like doing his PR for him because I was sort of doing the rounds on podcasts and in articles and on social media.

kind of like sticking up for him basically and saying, look, ignore Spurs, ignore the fact he's been in the Saudi wilderness for a couple of years because his reputation had taken such a hit. But I mean, you don't have to look too far into his career history to see that he's capable of brilliance. It's not just the Wolves job, you know, where he's done really well. I mean, he is a sort of a bit of a genius or certainly gives off the perception of genius and kind of can create this persona of, you know,

a leader that people will follow, be that fans or players or staff who are so loyal to him, you know, kind of with the way he speaks and the aura that he carries and obviously, you know, very smart sort of tactical football brain. And I guess, you know, Forrest were the kind of club that he was looking to take on. He was looking to bring a smaller club up like he's done before with Wolves and with Rio Ave in Portugal. And,

Two small clubs in comparison in their countries who took both of them to Europe. Rio Ave for the first time in their history and Wolves for the first time in 40 years. And now he's looking to perhaps do the same again with Forest. The concern I had with him at Forest was probably the size of the squad because he does prefer a smaller squad.

of sort of, you know, motivated players who were sort of regularly involved. And also the other matter for me was the George Mendes factor because that was so important at Wolves and at clubs earlier in his career and how involved he would be in recruitment and Tails can speak on that a lot better than me. But he's certainly got the control of first team matters that he needs and craves.

Yeah, in terms of the piece that you wrote, the positive one before he went to Forrest when you were doing his PR, one of the responses to it was from one of our subscribers, Tom, and he said, Tim Spurs has a funny way of looking at anything related to Wolves. As a Spurs fan, I know what Nuno will bring to Forrest, misery.

I mean, if Tim thought he was wrong, Paul, when he said that he was going to be a hit at Nottingham Forest, I don't think Tom could have been much more wrong with his verdict on Nuno's time.

at Forest so far, the fans don't care, do they, about any of the style or the issues with anything like that? I think the style is actually quite a good fit for Nottingham Forest. Historically, there's this notion amongst fans of doing things the Forest way. Brian Clough set the bar in so many different ways, but he kind of ingrained this style of football. There's this idea that Forest fans want to see a certain style of football, and

in all honesty, the way that Nuno plays is not a world away from what brought Forrest's success under Clough. You know, they're disciplined, they're strong at the back, they're very quick on the counter-attack, they use their wingers, you know, and I'm not comparing any of the current squad to John Robertson, but

But, you know, they've got really effective wingers who really cause havoc when they break quickly. And it's exactly what brought them success under Clough. Now, I think there's certain clubs that have different expectations that want to play possession-based football, that want to, you know, do things differently at Forest.

They don't really mind this, like the stat that Forest don't have any possession, that they have the 20th most possession in the Premier League. I don't think there's many Forest fans that give a jot about that. It's just all they care about is results and the fact that even simultaneously with that stat in mind, they play exciting football. They're exciting to watch. They're dangerous on the break. And I think they can buy into that and they can buy into...

what they're seeing on the pitch, which is this team that's united and together. You see that in the celebrations afterwards. It's like what they had under Steve Cooper, but Nuno has somehow added to it, despite being a very different character. He's carried on that legacy, and it's all adding up into something that feels like it's going to be very special one way or another. Yeah, his character is crucial to this as well, isn't it, Tim? I mean, you know, Forrest's car park at the training grounds like...

Like any other one you see in the Premier League, it's full of pretty flashy, fancy cars, as you can imagine. But the manager's driving a Mini Cooper. I mean, that pretty much sums him up, doesn't it? A little bit. I mean, he's hard to sum up. I spent a fair bit of time with him over the years and I still don't really understand him. He's very complex. He's got this...

He's an extremely intense person who's actually quite shy, actually. He doesn't like the limelight. He doesn't like constantly being on TV. He hates watching himself on TV. Remember he told me once? He's very moody. I mean, one quote that always sticks with me is he said he could be the worst person in the entire world when his team have lost. And I have seen that firsthand. In fact, I remember once...

going to speak to him at Wolves it wasn't for an interview it was when I just joined the Athletic and had set up a sort of a meeting with me to kind of explain what the Athletic was all about you know it was all very new at the time and I wasn't living in Wolverhampton at the time and I travelled like an hour and a half two hours to go meet him been set up for weeks but they'd lost 1-0 at home to Braga the night before and I turned up at the training ground like midday and he

sort of the word was coming back that he wasn't up for it today. I was like, you've got to be joking. And then he was eventually sort of dragged downstairs to come say hello. And he was like, I can't do this today. Sorry, Tim, just not in the mood. Like it wasn't even an interview, it was just a chat. And we were literally face to face. He's like, I'm not doing this.

because he can be he can you know defeats really really get to him and he'd be the same with the players like players would say he just wouldn't talk to them for days on end sometimes and they wouldn't have a clue what they'd done wrong or what they had to do to fix it and then one day he'd just turn around and just be back to normal again and they kind of had a general rule that you know you don't go if you're out the team you don't go knocking on his door to ask why because that will make it worse he'll be like well you should know

So, like, I guess you might look at all that and say, well, he's a bit of a horrible person. But honestly, the flip side, when he's in a good mood, he's one of the most charming and charismatic people I've ever met. You know, he can make you feel like a million dollars, you know, the way he sort of talks to you and everything.

When he walks into a room, you know, you sort of know he's the boss. He's got that aura about him. I don't know if he still does this, Tails, but before every Wolves press conference, he would walk into the room and shake everybody's hand from front to back. Every journalist, every camera operator, he'd give them that firm, strong handshake to sort of let you know who's boss. And the players absolutely loved him, you know, despite the moodiness because, well, I mean, he made them win. And Matt Doherty said once,

Whenever we step onto the pitch, we know we can win that game. We believe we're going to win that game, whether they're playing, you know, Morecambe or Man City. He would give them short, simple messages or their tasks, as he would put it. And they knew that if they completed those tasks and they all did it, then they would win that game. And they, you know, under Wolves, they did. You know, they beat everyone in the country at one time or another, Man City, Man United, Arsenal, Liverpool, the lot. And now he's doing the same again with Forests.

Is he exactly what Forrest needed, Paul? Yeah, yeah. Everything that Tim just said there is entirely familiar. You speak to the Forrest players now and they talk about a man who is...

extraordinarily blunt and straight. If you're good, he'll tell you you're good. If you're bad, he'll tell you you're bad and why and what you need to do to improve. And I think the players, once you get acclimatized to that, they tend to, they might not enjoy it all the time, but I think they appreciate it. And it's better than not knowing, I guess, what you're doing wrong or why he's upset with you. If he tells you straight what he wants and if he doesn't like what you're doing, then I think it's hard to have an issue with that.

but equally at the same time, the Forest players have that same level of belief. They go into every game not expecting or just taking it for granted they're going to win, but believing that they can. You know, they've won at Anfield and Old Trafford and I don't think there's a game that they go into now thinking that they can't win it. They've got Liverpool again next Tuesday. They've got Luton before that in the Cup. I think that'll be a bit of a side issue, frankly.

I think they'll go into that game not being complacent or blasé, but they'll go into that game fiercely believing that they can win it and keep not a seventh Premier League win on the road, which is incredible. It's something that he's clearly got a knack for. He's got a knack for getting players to believe and getting players to buy into what he wants. And that's the fundamental of being a football manager, isn't it? That's the key thing for anybody who wants to be a success in that job.

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So the question is, what are Forrest doing on the pitch tactically that's proving so effective? I spoke a little bit earlier on to our data analyst Mark Carey for some clues.

Hello Mark, right, let's get into this style then for Nuno at Forest. How would you describe it? I don't think it would be a surprise to anyone to say that they are quite simply the archetypal counter-attacking team. I think that we know from Nuno Espirito Santo's style in the Premier League, going back to his Wolves days, that

he likes to keep a really solid defensive foundation, defensive base and then look to hit teams on the break from there. They're playing more with the back four this season, Forest, rather than Nuno's style more at Wolves was more with the back three, but the principle still remains. I think as much as anything, they look really strong in both boxes at the moment. I don't think that's a surprise for anyone considering where they are in the league. Again, it's been spoken about widely, but the arrival of Nikola Milenkovic has been

transformational in terms of their defensive unit really physically strong really aerially strong and got a really good defensive partnership with Murillo they dovetail and complement each other really really well so I think first and foremost it's a really strong defensive foundation but of course everything that you know everyone's speaking about is their their strong counter-attacking threat going forward and and the pace and the attacking potency that they have with obviously Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Langer

Callum Hudson-Odoi, you know, bursting forward from that perspective. And then, of course, spearheaded with Chris Wood, who's arguably having the season of his career. 12 goals already this season. A couple of penalties in there as well. But when you look at it from a non-penalty goals perspective per 90 minutes, he's averaging better than one in two, which is obviously, you know, really strong for

for Wood, especially given the age that he's at as well. So I think they've just got a really nice balance to their team at the moment. And it might not be what you'd consider to be the most eye-catching modern day football, considering everyone sort of has an opinion on the best way to play football at the moment. But I think we can safely say it's effective considering where they are on the league table. Yeah, I'm not sure Forest fans are complaining, are they, to be fair? You've run through some of the strengths there. Is there anything specific in the data that reveals exactly what they're doing so well this season? Yeah.

Yeah, well, doing so well, but also just stylistically, I think that they make no bones about the fact that they play this way and they're sort of uncompromising in the way that they do it. They know their strengths and they're looking to maximise them.

I think it's worth just adding the numbers to really just how strong that defensive base is. So only Arsenal have a better rate of goals conceded per 90 minutes this season, which is remarkable considering the strength of the teams that are in this league. So Forrest have conceded just 19 goals in 20 games, which is super impressive. And as I say, Nuno spoke about this extensively, about having that strong defensive foundation.

But their direct speed as well, this is a metric that looks how much the ball is advanced in meters per second.

So a higher number is indicative of a team who likes to get it forward quickly. And they have the highest direct speed of any team in the Premier League. Their long pass rate as well is the fourth highest in the league. So, you know, how much they look to go long when they can, that's one of the highest in the league. And we saw that for the Callum Hudson-Odoi assist for Chris Wood on Monday against Wolves, where it was just one long ball from the goalkeeper. Again, uncompromising, don't need to build out from the back.

Who cares?

of them actually looking to pin the opposition back and try and find those neat, intricate passes, you know, from more suffocating and trying to get territorial dominance. They know what they want to do and try to exploit the opposition in transitional moments because they know that when they do win the ball back,

the opposition isn't necessarily set up to defend those sort of bigger spaces. In terms of the players then who have been key to this, you mentioned Chris Wood and his goals. Clearly he's been a crucial player for them. Obviously Milenkovic at the back as well. His partnership with Murillo has been a huge plus point of their campaign. But I'm wondering about the wide players, the way that he's used Anthony Alanga, the way that he's used Callum Hudson-Odoi and the role of Morgan Gibbs-White as well, who's really come to the fore in the last few weeks.

Which do you see as their sort of crucial players that have been able to really hammer home what they've been able to do stylistically this season?

Yeah, I don't think it's outrageous to say that I do think Morgan Gibbs-White is the obvious one. He's the creative hub, really. He actually has the highest share of Forrest expected assists across the whole of the squad this season. So it shows how much they do look to him creatively. But as you say, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Alanga, the pace that they offer is frightening. And also then it's all about, I think, the

especially with Morgan Gibbs-White, it's the relationships that they then have with each other as well. And I thought that the Wolves goal that Gibbs-White scored was a good example of that.

Alanga knew most likely that when he received the ball from Gibbs-White, that Gibbs-White would sort of hold his run off a little bit. And it felt like it was, even though it was still kind of off the cuff a little bit, it was choreographed to a certain extent because they are working together really well and know each other's game. So,

Nuno seems to pick them in specific matches as well, doesn't he? You know, it's not every single game that he goes with these fast wingers. He tends to pick his moment. He uses them off the bench. He's been quite clever in that way too, hasn't he? Yeah, I think that's something which, again, I'm sure we can come on to it, but in the second half of the season, you wonder whether

Well, basically, I guess because what I mentioned with those sorts of players, they thrive in a lot of space. And if they know that the opposition is going to give them that space in the transitional moments, then a good manager would play those players at that time. I wonder whether in the second half of the season, the opposition will try and condense the space a little bit more and then stifle the key strengths of those players, of course. But yeah,

I think, you know, when we're talking about key players, those forwards will get a lot of the headlines. We mentioned about Milenkovic, he has been transformational. I think it is worth highlighting how good Elliot Anderson has been as well this season from, you know, midfield perspective. Often, yeah, we're just thinking about both boxes, but he's really added a lot of bite to the midfield that was,

kind of lacking last season. He really sets the tempo of the game in and out of possession. And again, looking at the numbers, he's averaging 68.3 touches per 90 minutes. Now that's more than any other Forest player this season. So again, touches being from a defensive perspective as well, getting a tackling, getting an interception. And of course, like, you know, as I say, dictating the tempo with his passes as well. So he's often involved in most things that they do well. And I think he deserves a bit of a shout out because the reason that these

forward players are able to thrive is because he's protecting them well and able to find them. Hope you're listening, Elliot. We've given you your praise. Let's talk about moving forward then. You alluded to it a moment ago when you said that maybe teams will change the way that they approach taking on Nottingham Forest in the second half of this season. But how do you see this playing out in the rest of the campaign? And what are the weaknesses that you think teams might be able to exploit in Forest?

Yeah, I mean, it's a hard one because I do think they are really, Kate's saying it throughout this, but really structurally, defensively strong. When they do need to kind of bunker in, they don't leave too much space for the opposition. So against the top teams who want to push the opposition back, that's actually quite, you know, something that they're quite comfortable, you know, doing it in terms of defending. So, yeah,

I don't think they have too many weaknesses, but I do maintain the point that it's more that teams will be well aware and well prepared now, given that they've played, everyone's played for us once, you know, in their approach to the second half of the season. I think, you know, I mentioned it before, give them space and they will often punish you. But if you don't give them that space in the first place, or maybe have a, from the opposition's perspective, have a stronger rest defence, have a stronger structure when you yourself are in possession trying to force Forrest back, then you can maybe nip those

potential counter-attacks in the bud quite early on and then you maybe take away their their most you know most threatening attacking threat so that would probably be one thing I think you know as I say could teams grow grow wise to that and I think that one thing I said at the start of the season I was obviously proven wrong was I thought that Forrest might struggle because of their style because I think we could say that's wrong yeah I can comfortably say yeah I hold my hands up because I I

Well, the argument that I made was that they don't take a ton of shots and that's still the case this season. They're averaging 12.9 shots per 90 minutes. Now that's the 13th highest in the league. So not obviously elite in that regard, but it's obviously about the quality and the value of those shots that they take is that they get into lucrative positions because it's in those transitional counterattacking moments.

Now, if those lucrative opportunities are either nipped in the bud, as I say, or they're not always converted, then it's not as if Forrester keep peppering the goal with a lot of chances. So I wonder whether, as I say, if teams just grow wise to it, think of ways to counteract that, I should say, because obviously they've seen now just how strong that they can be. You wonder whether maybe that

key threat that they have could get stifled a little bit. I think a good test of that will be Liverpool who are obviously coming up against them very soon. They were the ones who got shocked, shall we say, at Anfield. Their only loss in the Premier League this season. It'll be interesting to see how much they've learned and how much they actually adapt considering the threat that they have seen firsthand that Forrest have. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. Mark, thank you. Thank you.

Yeah, Tales, listening to Mark there, the final point that he made about what happens next for Forest, you're there first-hand. What do you think the second half of the season holds for him? I think they need to find a balance. You speak to players like... I spoke to Anthony Langer recently and you speak to Nuno as well and they both make the point that while they've found a formula that works for them really well, at the same time, they're aware that...

Not that they'll get found out, but people will start to understand their strengths. They'll start to understand what they're good at. They'll start to try and counter how they go about things. So they need to find a way to keep evolving, to stay fresh, to keep people on their toes, to surprise the opposition. What Nuno's done in...

in recent weeks is not experiment. He started to introduce playing with the back three a lot more often, either within games or even occasionally starting games. They've got Morata on the bench who is like a brick wall. I can't remember the precise stats, but I think it's something close to 500 minutes that he's been on the pitch as a substitute and they've only conceded one goal. And he is an immense figure and they're trying to find a way to get him into the team as much as they like Milenkovic and Murillo being absolutely on another level.

that it's all about trying to find a new way of doing things and freshen up the team. And I think that without getting ahead of myself, they're quite good at doing that, evolving and finding a fresh approach just to keep the team fresh and to keep the opposition guessing a little bit. I think what sides might struggle to do at the minute when they're facing Forrest is probably...

They'll know what 80% of the team will be, but I think Nuno's quite good at perhaps surprising them with one or two selections within the lineup just to keep them on their toes and not know what kind of forest team they're going to be facing. And that will be crucial as they go into the second half of the campaign.

Does your time at Wolves give us any clues, Tim, about what happens next? I mean, Wolves just didn't stop really for three years. I mean, you know, people might forget they're a mid-table championship team, you know, when he took over and then they stormed the league, probably the best championship team a lot of people have ever seen. And then two seventh place finishes in a row and a Europa League quarterfinal. It only stopped in the pandemic season when, you know, Raul Jimenez suffered that horrific injury and then

Things started to go south a little bit when Nuno tried to change Wolves into like a front foot proactive team, change the formation for the first time. That's what fans, all right, you can say ridiculous with the success they had at Wolves, but fans did get a little bit sick of always being so pragmatic and defensive. There was a yearning to open up and progress, which is basically the biggest reason he was sacked at Wolves at the end of his fourth year. And they brought in Bruno Lars, who was very much, you know, that type of manager.

So that's not going to happen, obviously, anytime soon at Forest. But it was interesting to hear Tom Kearney say on Monday Night Football the other night that he said, from a player's point of view, yeah, they'll love it now because they're winning and they're on this incredible ride, you know, time of their lives. But if they were to have a few defeats, you know, the players would maybe start grumbling, players like Langer and Gibbs White, about just not having much of the ball.

And he said when Fulham played Forest, he felt like they basically just didn't want the ball. And yeah, as attacking players, that's not really what you want. Obviously, he's speaking from maybe a personal perspective, the type of player that he is. But it is interesting, sort of longer term, how that evolves. But for the here and now, I mean, of every team I've seen this season, Forest are without doubt the hardest to play against.

which again was a similar thing at Wolves, how he likes to control the game without the ball. So he knows his team are going to have sort of 20, 30, 40% possession, but he likes to, yeah, control the game via his team shape, his team's discipline, set traps for those counterattacks. It's very similar to,

to what it was it was as is the level of buy-in which of course is crucial as is the level of commitment I went to Forrest Spurs on Boxing Day and Spurs could barely get across into the box because everyone every single one was charged down by two or three players you know let alone trying to create decent chances so as long as they keep that and they keep their key players fit then I don't really see it stopping anytime soon in terms of them being in the you know top four or five this is the Athletic FC podcast

OK, well, as well as fighting relegation, of course, last season in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest were also handed a four-point deduction following a breach of the league's profit and sustainability rules. Let's bring in the Athletics' Matt Slater, who's, of course, an expert in all things football, finance and business. Matt, just a reminder, if you can, please, about exactly why they were docked those points last year. Yeah, hi, everybody. OK, bit of history. So this is the 2022-23 season, and we're going to be talking about

we're talking about. And yeah, you're right. The charges came last year. They were charged along with Everton, second time around for Everton. They were the first two clubs to be charged in what the Premier League were calling this expedited process. So if you remember for the first lot of Everton charges, it took a long time for, if you like, Justin to catch up with them. So Forrest and Everton, Everton part two, Forrest part one was done much quicker. So the idea was,

2022-23 PSR accounts, but dealt with in the 23-24 season. So that's the context. Go back to the history. Forrest promoted through the playoffs in 22.

Huge spend, which I know we did podcasts about. I can't remember. Paul will remember. Was it 30 players? 29. Sorry. I was a bit off there. A lot of players, massive net spend, 140 odd million, I think, net spend. They really went for it. And their point was, look, we have to, right? We had hardly any players. Loads of them were out of contracts. We had loanees, all that stuff. We've heard it before. And it's really, really hard to...

And slightly unfair, I think, in this sort of PSR environment, particularly for playoff teams. They find it really difficult. And of course, Forrest had the issue of, again, this is sort of PSR history, of

I think most people now that listen to these pods and read our stories are aware that it's for Premier League clubs. It's about 35 million. You're allowed to lose a year, which totals 105 over a three-year rolling period. But of course, the EFL have different rules. It's 13 million, not 35. You can lose a year. So if you are like Forrest and you're looking at that three-year window, two of their counting seasons were EFL rules. So 13. So, yeah.

Long story short, that first season they were being assessed in the Premier League, they could only lose 61. 13, 13 plus 35. They blew that by a mile. I think they were 34 and a half over. They lost about 30 because you make these deductions. Their pre-tax loss was big. You take out community spending, women's football, football.

Anything you spend on infrastructure, you bring that number down a little bit, they were still well over. And the big debate with Forrest was the Brennan Johnson sale. That was their plan to sort of get out of it. There was no real question that they were close to the limit. It was really whether they were going to push through that Brennan Johnson sale, which was good. They got a good number, 47 and a bit, wasn't it, Paul? Yeah.

to Spurs. It was just whether it would fall in the 2022-23 accounts or spill over into 23-24. Now, they actually missed it by a couple of weeks. I think it was a week. It was very tight. And the whole debate was, look, if you'd have made us do it in June, we might have had to take a small number.

Surely you want us to be sustainable. That's the whole point. We did the business thing. We held on and we sold at the right time. We got a good number from Spurs. Okay, yes, it means that we have breached 22-23, but it was pretty close. You could see that negotiations had started. There was a big old debate in the hearing about when the actual negotiations really started and when Forrest got serious about it. Could they have done it quicker? Again, that is ancient history because they lost negotiations.

So Johnson didn't count. They were way over. They got a big, a big point deduction. The Premier League and the panel actually agreed with them initially was giving them six points. 34 and a half is a long way over. Forrest got two points knocked off for an early play. They didn't really dispute, unlike Everton, the numbers. It really was just about this Brennan Johnson treatment when you, when you, you know, if you were going to give him any kind of,

Credit for that. And cooperation. They cooperated with the process. So six became four. Now that dropped them, crucially, into the relegation zone. I think a point behind Luton. And it was Forrest and Luton all that season. And they appealed. They didn't win on the appeal. Nothing happened. Still four points. So that's the history, right? It was all about Brennan Johnson. They got docked six points, knocked it down to four because of good behaviour, if you like.

tried to appeal that further, failed. It ended up not mattering anyway because Luton didn't fight to the end as it looked like they might at sort of Christmas-ish. Yeah, and Matt, from that then, obviously the way you've explained it, the Brennan Johnson situation is crucial, but it was basically that Forrest had spent a lot of money to strengthen their squad and that's why they ended up being in breach of the rules. So the fact that they got that four-point deduction, the fact that they ended up staying up despite that deduction, is that...

A little bit of an example to others that this is a way through things to break the rules, take the deduction and be able to have a stronger squad in the Premier League, the other side of it. It's a great question. And it's a really sort of interesting philosophical idea, right? Do we think that Forrest knowingly kind of went for it, priced it all in and went, let's just roll the dice? Paul, what do you think? My understanding is that their plan was always

the ace up their sleeve was always Brennan Johnson and because the way it's structured you know the sale of an academy player counts far more towards PSR because there's no transfer no initial transfer fee and they're a homegrown product so having homegrown players in your team like Brennan is always an ace up the sleeve for any club and I think they always saw that as being there the thing that would get them over the line on the right side of PSR as Matt's

very eloquently outlined the whole thing surrounding it was just timing. It was a question of when they got the deal done that was the issue rather than anything else. But I think that was always their plan to sell Brennan and get themselves the right side of the line through that sale.

I'm glad to hear you're on the same page, Paul, because I think that's absolutely bang on. I think it's a really nice idea, Ian, that they just sort of, they're masters. They were playing 3D chess. I'm maybe being a little bit mischievous, but you've got to play devil's advocate as the host sometimes. But it does get us to a really sort of interesting place, right? What are points deductions for? They are sporting sanctions to discourage exactly the kind of behaviour

that you are suggesting that Forrest knowingly did. Look, there are a couple of reasons why I don't think Forrest are that ballsy. And they got 32 points last year. That's normally enough to be relegated. True. Now, I don't want to be rude to all of the relegated teams last year, but they didn't do very well. So you can't know that. And...

I remember it was a story. They weren't happy about the four points. They appealed. They went to the appeal and they made their best arguments and they didn't stick. And there was some comment around the time that maybe Forrest were, there was one issue in particular, like all clubs that go up, they pay bonuses. And that really hits you as an EFL club. You always make a big loss when you promote it.

And the Premier League panels have been a little bit... So they decided in the Forest case, no, sorry, that's just too bad. That's wages. That knocks you over. That's a cost. C'est la vie.

But they hadn't done that in a previous case. I can't remember which one it was. So there's been a bit of a mixed message there from the panel on how you treat that. So Forrest's case was interesting. You had the Brendan Johnson thing. You had the bonus payments. You had this massive transfer spend that was kind of egregious and everyone talked about, oh my God, that many players. It did seem to be a bit chaotic. So you had these sort of kind of

Almost like positive arguments that Forrest could make where you were sympathetic to them. And then you had these other ones were like, well, come on guys. I mean, you know, it was, you were just going crazy. But anyway, what happened? What happened? I just don't think they would have intentionally gone. Do you know what guys? I think we're going to be okay. I think we can take the points deduction this year because they only got 32 points.

Yeah, that's very true. That's very true and it will be an interesting situation because like you outlined before, last season was the first year that we really saw the impact of this and we're only really in year two, aren't we, of seeing how these points deductions work and how it affects the league. But yeah, it won't be the last time we talk about it, that's for sure. Matt, thank you. You're welcome.

Right, let's throw it forward then a little bit more. We've done it a little bit. Tim, what do you think this Forest side can achieve then in the second half of this season? There maybe are a few parallels with the 2015-16 season when Leicester City won the league. I'm not suggesting Forest are going to go and do that, but there's quite a few big-name teams who are misfiring so far this season. Do you think they can take advantage of that and get into Europe?

Yeah, they definitely can. I think the Liverpool game coming up will tell us quite a lot. I mean, crikey. Title six pointer? If they beat Liverpool, they're city ground. All bets are off, to be honest. But you probably wouldn't expect them to do that. I think you make a really good point about misfiring teams around them. Chelsea looked great a few weeks ago. Now they're, what, four points behind Forest? Yeah. You can say that they're reliant on Chris Wood's goals or...

Gibbs White's creativity but you know there's no reason to suggest that those things are going to stop. Well I think Erling Haaland City were quite reliant on him winning the league weren't they and they've been reliant on Kevin De Bruyne's creativity recently or in recent seasons at least that's how it goes when you've got players who are playing well like this. Yeah exactly you can't put a measure on the momentum and the belief that they have I mean you know Tales was saying that the players feel it I mean you can certainly feel it in the stadium again going back to that Spurs game and boxing I mean the players

nobody wanted to leave at full time it's rare that you get that you know that fans just don't want to leave after a win and the players were sort of carrying each other off the pitch and there's that tangible sort of essence that something special is happening they're in this incredible moment and that you know that that can take them pretty far this month then you referred to it before tales when you said that nunos outlined how crucial it is that they keep hold of some of their most important players do you see that being the case

Yeah, yeah. I mean, they've got a very ambitious owner in Evangelos Marinakis who's put a lot of money into the club. You know, I think Forest get a bit of a hard time sometimes. You know, it can be a bit chaotic behind the scenes, I guess, but it's also...

However you look at it at the minute, it's been a very well-run football club for the last couple of years. The recruitment has been good. The appointment of Nuno was good. The way that they didn't cash in on Murillo or Morgan Gibbs-Wyatt last summer when they could easily have done so.

And there's no suggestion that they're going to do so in the next couple of weeks. You know, I'll add the caveat that something ridiculous could happen and somebody might drop a massive, massive offering for one of them as too good to turn down. I can't see it. I think it would have to be a truly,

ridiculous offer for him to even think about it. Yeah, I think they get a bit of a hard time. I think in January, it would surprise me a little bit if any of them left. What I would say about, just to go off on a tangent slightly, if I may, the Leicester comparison. When they won the title, they won it with 81 points. Arsenal was second with 71 points.

That, for me, is the kind of caveat I put in place when you're discussing whether Forrest are going to win the title this season. That was an extraordinary season. In the same way as last season was with the bottom three, that was an extraordinary season with the title race. 81 points would normally only just be enough for second place. If you look at the average points tally...

since the turn of the millennium in the Premier League that wins you a position in the table. 81.6 points is the average for the team finishing second place. So, Forrest have got a long way to go before they've got to more than... The average points tally for the team winning the title in the 21st century is 89.2 points.

So Forest have got to do better in the second half of the season on the average that's gone past to win the title. And I think Liverpool are perhaps on course with that. They're the major factor in this. They feel like they've got a bit more class than Forest, a bit more class than any team in the Premier League. So if they're going to win it, they've got to do better than them. And that might be the deciding factor in it all. But you didn't think you'd be making those calculations at the start of the season, Taylor? Absolutely. That's what I was going to say as well, yeah. I'm still bewildered that I'm doing it now. Yeah.

It's a bit of a moment, isn't it, covering Forest and working out exactly how many points it takes on average to win the Premier League title. Yes. I can see why you'd spend your afternoon doing that, certainly. Tim, just on Nuno then, just as we begin to round this off,

Obviously, his stock, I'm going to use that word again that Tales used a moment ago, but his stock obviously was very high when he was having the success at Wolves. His time at Tottenham damaged that. His time in the wilderness, as we said earlier, in Saudi Arabia as well, didn't exactly enhance his reputation. But he's certainly doing that now.

back in the Premier League at Forest do you think there's a time where he becomes an option for you know bigger clubs again for want of a better expression and paying full respect to the size of the team that Nottingham Forest is and has been I

It's an interesting one. I mean, you say about his stock in Saudi, he did win the league there. And this was the sort of season before everyone, you know, descended on there for £100 million a week wages. When clubs are looking as to whether to hire him, if you want mitigation at Spurs, it is there. They were seventh when he got sacked.

it's not too bad now when you look where they are under Ange Postacoglu and he was sort of 10th choice that summer again people might forget you know they went for Conte they went for Pochettino they went for Gattuso they went for Fonseca this was all out in the public domain and then did you just say 10th? I mean roughly roughly

It felt more than that, didn't it? Yeah. Plus they had the Kane issue that summer where he wanted to go to City and City were bidding for him and Kane was late back to training that pre-season. So there's all sorts of things going on in mitigation. However, I think if you were, you know, a bigger club than Forest looking for Nuno, you would question his style. You know, he is a Mourinho disciple at the end of the day. That's where he learned his craft, you know, at Porto under Mourinho. And...

He's quite deep into his managerial career now. I don't see him changing his style of play or, you know, he's sort of quite wedded to it.

But, you know, forget the style in terms of, like Tails was saying earlier, in terms of where Forrest are at right now. But yeah, in terms of a big club, if you were Chelsea, I don't think you'd be looking to hire Nuno because he just hasn't got it in him that we've seen in his career to play that type of football, which I guess is good news for Forrest when it comes to the summer. Yeah, it definitely is. And let's finish on a proper high note then and really reflect the moment for Forrest. Paul, is the passport up to date? Yeah.

Yes, yeah. Again, you talked earlier about those questions you never thought you'd need to have to answer, but yes, yes it is. And what an adventure that would be. Absolutely. Dare to dream, that's the right way to do it. That's what all football fans want at the end of the day, isn't it? Gentlemen, thank you very much. Tim, Paul, thank you for being with us. Thanks for listening along as well. Thank you to Matt and Mark for their contributions earlier on in the podcast. We'll be back on the Athletic FC pod tomorrow with more. Thanks for listening. Bye-bye.

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