We Need to Talk About J.D. With Kaitlan Collins
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Well, I have somehow landed Caitlin Collins on the show. If you've been watching CNN during this crazy time, she's here, she's there, she's everywhere. She's somehow at the Trump rally. She's at the RNC. She's on set. I don't know how you get around. It's amazing. They must have a parachute for you. But congratulations on your show, The Source. You've got your one year anniversary and Caitlin, congratulations.

a year ago, like where were we even? What was it like Ron DeSantis? And was it possible front runner Joe Biden? I mean, so much has changed. It is hilarious to think, you know, obviously, as you know, news has been so crazy for forever now, but especially lately, because one year ago, I was thinking of like what our goals were. We were like booking DeSantis and booking Nikki Haley and trying to get like Tim Scott on the show. And a year later, the landscape has just

radically changed so much but also in you know some ways surprising some ways not surprising um but I mean it's been quite a year for news so it's a good good time to launch a new show right yeah I'm sure they're begging to get on the show now I think we just need to clear the air right now are you a childless cat lady or a childless dog lady childless and petless so I'm like I have two strikes again oh you

You're uber cold. Okay. I'm a childless dog lady. It's totally cool. It means you're definitely going to hell per JD Vance. Your dog is so cute. I know I had a foster dog. I had some foster dogs earlier this year, but now it's like so busy that I can't even, I,

because I'm like traveling so much, I can't even have a foster dog at the moment. So I don't actually even know how people have kids in this new cycle, much less, you know, or much have pets or much less kids because it's like so insane. Yeah. I have a dog father who watches my dog half the time when I have to go away. So it really works out for me. Yeah.

Yeah, it's so crazy. This line about childless cat ladies has just like blown up what J.D. Bantz has said. And I don't know if you remember 2012 when Romney was talking about binders full of women and it just wouldn't die, right? This feels like it's even bigger now.

And it also feels like quaint and cute what Romney said at the time compared to this kind of dig. Yeah, it's amazing perspective in the sense of like how we cover things and thinking of like, you know, what's the story today, but what's not going to actually have impact on the election and thinking of how you cover that.

I think there is some surprise from what I've heard from sources is that this hasn't died down more and that it is still such a thing. And I think part of that may be because of the comments and the defenses we've heard of this from Vance. I was looking at what some Republican senators were saying today, and they were kind of saying, you know, I don't know.

I don't think it's worth the level of coverage and scrutiny it's getting. But also, you know, this is the position that you're in when you make something trying to be funny. That was the comment I saw from one Republican senator. But I think there is surprise inside Trump world that this does have such staying power. And it probably is part of why you saw Trump come out last night and try to clean it up himself. I don't think he was trying to be funny. I mean, if you watch the clip, he was trying to make a point. And I think CNN has some reporting that he...

truly believes that people who don't have children are immoral and that they should pay more taxes, which they do. Single payer tax. It's the worst taxpayer if you're a single income. You know, it is funny. I was thinking about this because, and you know this very well from just years of reporting, which is

Every time someone's comment gets scrutiny, and this happens to lawmakers in both parties, I think, but they always say it's being taken out of context by the media. And so last Friday, I actually went back and watched J.D. Vance's entire speech that he did as a Senate candidate, where he initially made this argument about, you know, people who don't have children and that they don't have a vested interest in the future of

as much of an interest in how the government performs. And I watched the whole speech on Friday and he really is making this argument. It's not just a one-off kind of comment. He was making the argument. He didn't say the childless cat ladies part. That was for the Tucker Carlson interview, but he was making this broader argument. And so when there is context, it's not like it,

the argument he was making. I just think it's a question of how he was making it. Because he's worried about the population loss, right? That's part of it as well. He was arguing about that, but he was also arguing genuinely that he believes that people who have children have a more vested interest in what the U.S. government does and how government functions.

and essentially saying that they have a stake in the future of this country. Obviously, that has offended a lot of people because there are many people who don't have kids who say, well, I vote and I still have as much of an interest in what happens in this country and I still care about...

children generally. And so I think that was kind of the part of the blowback. Yeah. Nieces, nephews, whatever your own future. Yeah. So you had a great segment last night. You had the Washington Post reporter Isaac Arnsdorf on. He had a leaked audio of J.D. Vance speaking to donors talking about how the campaign was sucker punched by

by Joe Biden leaving the race. Surprised by that because they had a full month to hear that he was being pushed out. And it seemed like he's suggesting that the campaign was flat-footed, that they were missing Joe. What do you think? My reporting was that...

At first, they thought that he'd be out of the race. But the more that he dug in, they were sort of hoping that he would stay in the race. And then perhaps they got pretty complacent. I mean, at the end of the day, they didn't mention Joe Biden's name. Trump didn't mention Joe Biden's name in the RNC speech. So you have to think that he was perhaps preparing for the fact that he might not be running against Joe Biden. And

remember just talking to aides at the RNC and I think that they were trying to be cute by saying like we don't want to agree to a vice presidential debate when we don't know the status of the campaign but I don't know what did you get from the Trump campaign did they really not expect Biden to drop out of the race were they really not ready it was this weird Venn diagram where the people who wanted Biden to stay in the race included like Joe Biden his closest advisors and Donald Trump a very rare moment where they were in agreement but it was because of what we're seeing right now and

which is that Trump thought that Biden would be a much easier opponent. And so that's why this audio that Isaac obtained from his sources was so interesting, because it's not that it's extremely revelatory or that we didn't know that it was very clear. The Trump campaign thinks that Harris is

a more difficult opponent than Joe Biden would be. They watched Joe Biden as along with 50 other million people at the debate. And so they thought, okay, this is the perception that's going to be in voters' minds. This is going to be maybe a cakewalk for us. I mean, I was hearing from sources at the RNC on the ground who were using words like landslide kind of victory. That is where their mind was. It was a victory party. Yeah, and-

Look how much the landscape has kind of changed. I mean, the mood at the RNC was so celebratory. Walking around on the floor, I talked to a lot of delegates, a lot of lawmakers, a lot of people in Trump's orbit, and they felt like it went really well. And then, you know, they had just come off the assassination attempt and were juggling these two major moments in the campaign.

And then, of course, everything was upended again the next week when Biden dropped out. And so on this audio, I think what J.D. Vance says is obvious. I think it's true that she is a tougher opponent than Biden. But the reason it's so interesting is that, you know, I always prefer to know what people are saying in private because sometimes they're more candid. And it was a candid assessment of the race, which is also different than what Trump was saying publicly and just said last night when he was saying that he thinks Harris is a worse candidate than Biden.

It's clearly not how the campaign feels because they're just, you know, they're going to use her moments from 2020. That's very clear. But they are dealing with a candidate who, by the nature of her age, has an advantage in the sense of she doesn't have to deal with the age problem that Joe Biden certainly dealt with. And even Donald Trump to a degree, though, obviously, lesser so when you look at polling from voters. Yeah. Four years is a long time when you're that old. Yeah.

Now, to me, it looks like the Trump campaign does not seem to be prepared for Kamala Harris. I mean, the materials kind of, you know, I've seen better. I mean, what does even prepared mean? They put up an ad, right? Just today, I think they announced that they are putting up $50 million in advertising. The way that they're adapting to this new candidate, it feels a bit flat footed. I mean, what's your sense? Do you think that they're really prepared for Kamala right now?

What does that even mean? What I've talked to people, what I hear often is we're going to run against her positions in 2020 that she staked out to the left of many people, including Joe Biden in that Democratic primary. The question is, does it still resonate with voters? Because they've seen her be vice president. And obviously, she's adopted the positions that Biden held for a lot of that publicly on fracking and mandatory buybacks for assault weapons. And so it's not totally clear what their path is.

And I think Vivek Ramaswamy actually made a great point on Twitter the other day when he was saying that when Republicans are focusing on whether or not Harris was aware of where Biden's cognitive abilities are or that she was part of the cover up or that she was plotting a coup. He was saying essentially those are distractions and that's not actually going to help Republicans win. Remember, we need to focus on

the challenger that we have now, regardless of how we got here, the challenger that we have now. Let's focus on what we're actually going to do because the election's in 99, 98 days and early voting starts in 48 days, I believe from now in places like Pennsylvania. And so they were essentially saying,

Regardless of your complaints that the race has changed, the race has changed. So let's focus on the changed race. And I think what I'm watching right now is to see, do they coalesce around a single line of attack around her or what the focus looks like that they think is effective with voters? Yeah, I mean, the first ad that came out, it was kind of a digital ad. It was from MAGA Inc., which is the blessed super PAC around Donald Trump.

Their ad was essentially the argument that, you know, she was complicit in this cover up of Joe Biden. Right. Or she was also the puppet master of Joe Biden and his and his policies at the same time. And you're right. It does seem like they're going to have to abandon that because it doesn't feel like it landed the same time. Did it not land because there's a sugar high around Kamala Harris right now and the media is so focused on the fact that she's raised her.

you know, 100, 200 million dollars. She's got a huge enthusiasm boost, 20 points, 10 points in favorability going up. So maybe later on in the race. But I think you're right that they need to move on from that. It's just not really working. When it's a position Trump doesn't find himself in very often where he's not the one at the center of the news cycle that someone else is. Yeah, no, it's true. It's been hard for him to try to own this. OK,

Let's get back to J.D. Vance for a second. How do you think the Trump campaign really feels about him? There's clearly all these memes of fake like couch fucking. Obviously, it's not real. But the whole idea that he's weird is something that the Democrats are pushing. And it seems to be making inroads in everything.

mainstream press. I mean, you had to have the AP actually fact check this fake meme about him in a couch. Do you think he's bothered by this J.D. stuff? Because I think the Democrats may have tapped into one thing about Trump is like he doesn't like the idea of people being weird. I think Trump also often has his beliefs of something. And then he also is shaped by the perception of how something plays. You

Trump will give a speech and he thinks it has gone great. And then he sees the coverage of it and thinks differently. And that often can shape how he perceives something. So from what I've noticed from covering him for years is that maybe he'll feel a certain way about something in the moment. And then that shifts later on after watching repeated coverage. You saw him trying to clean it up last night by by.

Not seeming to make even close to the same argument that Vance was making in those clips that have been revitalized and are getting so much scrutiny. Trump was arguing that sometimes people don't meet the right person in his Fox News interview that he did last night where he was talking about it. I think the idea, though, that Trump is going to remove him from the ticket or something because of this negative coverage, nothing that I have heard from anyone suggests that that's true. And I think, you know,

when Trump, Trump was pretty settled on JD Vance for months. Yes, there was a huge lobbying campaign underway for certainly Doug Burgum to a degree, Marco Rubio. I mean, he had people like Rupert Murdoch calling him multiple times to advocate for Doug Burgum. And he was wavering, you know,

up until that final selection. But it was always pretty clear that Vance had a firm grasp on this pick. And so I think the idea that Trump's going to totally change his perception because a person is getting negative coverage is not true. I will say he doesn't like a negative news cycle around his campaign and has always felt that way, especially when it's not about him, it's about someone else. And so I think that's something to keep an eye on. But I think the idea that he's dumping him from the ticket

based on what I know right now, just doesn't have any basis in reality. Yeah, it would be admitting fault. And that's not something Trump would ever want to do. And I do think people are overlooking what J.D. brought to the ticket, which was money. Right. And it was like new Republican money. It was venture capital money, hedge fund money, this new paradigm of possible Republican money, not the same old guard country club money.

Republicans who probably will come around if they haven't. Some won't, some will. But Trump obviously sees these new resources, Bitcoin, crypto. He just spoke at the crypto conference recently. He wants to court David Sachs, Peter Thiel, the guys from the All In podcast, tech bros with cash and influence. Right. And J.D. has obviously opened the door to that. And, you know, it's interesting.

part of, I guess, what he sees as a place where he can continue to explore and exploit in his presidency. But in a way, though, I think J.D. has really allowed this to be a referendum on Trump again and has put them in the defensive. And obviously, you don't want the vice president to give you bad press. It's supposed to be a bit of a do no harm type of job. Right. Right. And I think that is that.

maybe the most relevant point of all of this is that it is something that's coming. It's been over maybe two weeks now since he's picked J.D. Vance as his official running mate. And I think that that's a good point in the sense of the negative coverage. It's unhelpful. They feel, the Trump team, the Vance campaign, they feel like it's unfair and that it's getting too much scrutiny. The one thing that I will say is interesting is that

You know, as we've been talking about past positions that Vance articulated when he was a Senate candidate, not clear that he was ever going to be a running mate on a presidential ticket at that time is as we're watching the Trump strategy take shape of using Harris's positions from around the same time period, actually earlier, because she dropped out of the Democratic primary in December.

using those against her. And so, you know, how that actually works given Bant's story is that he's involved on his views of Trump and on, you know, other issues and what that looks like now. They're trying to basically make the reverse argument against Harris right now, which is to use her positions on fracking and

and single payer health care from before to use them against her now. As Trump said last night, the first position you take in politics is where you actually are. Says Trump, who supported abortion. I mean, seriously, and was a Democrat. Major positions. We used to watch that when you and I were covering the White House together.

And, you know, even recently he did it on TikTok. And so it's not just, you know, something that happened to that. It is an interesting moment. How voters perceive it is the real question. I don't think anyone's voting for Trump based on J.D. Vance being on the ticket, but I also don't think they're voting against it because of J.D. Vance. They have probably firmly held positions on Trump himself. You don't think that J.D. Vance has alienated possible suburban voters who could help tip the scales for Trump?

I mean, they're clearly just focused on male, low propensity, low information voters, but they need some suburban women to win this, I would think. Yeah, well, and I think that's always been, you know, the demographic Trump has struggled with the most. I mean, in the midterms and, you know, when he talked about moderating his positions and certainly on abortion, it's one of the most sensitive issues that Trump deals with right now. And he still struggles to talk about it. He was calling it the A word. And so it has been something that he struggled with. And that is actually maybe where,

J.D. Vance's past comments are more relevant, which is that he did used to be for a national abortion ban that he once said about rape and incest exceptions. Two wrongs don't make a right. I actually asked Laura Trump about this at the RNC. And if

she was worried given, you know, as co-chair of the RNC, her concerns is also not just electing Trump, but down ballot Republicans. If they were worried that that would hurt their efforts to, to get other Republicans elected into office. She said no, because Vance being on the ticket adopts Trump's positions on, on these issues. Um,

But I do think that'll be more interesting to see how that plays out with those suburban women voters. Yeah, I mean, in general, J.D. Vance is not a great campaigner. I remember covering the Senate primary in Ohio just two years ago. Let's not forget, he's 39 years old and he's only been in the Senate for two years. I think that's why a lot of people watched him at the RNC and thought that speech was pretty underwhelming when he came out for the first time. He's very new to politics. And so I do think that's a good point and that he's a relative newcomer

to the Senate generally, but to politics overall. And I mean, talk about the frying pan into the fryer. It's a huge spotlight to be under. And I don't think that, I think that's why it's not surprising that his past comments are getting so much attention. Yeah, and he needs help with his performance. You know, for such a great storyteller, like the Hillbilly Elegy is a beautiful memoir. It's actually like very tender and

it's a real crier. You wouldn't expect that from some like macho MAGA guy. And I think that's why you're seeing this like alternate personality come out about JD and his old friends. He had this transsexual friend named Sophia who he had exchanged all these emails with. And even the way he describes his wife in the book, it just,

doesn't really line up with some, you know, Tucker Carlson, red meat, MAGA machismo guy, but apparently that's who he is right now. But I just remember that people were saying, you know, he doesn't really campaign enough when he's out there in Ohio for the Senate primary. You know, he wasn't really raising enough money. He wasn't really considered like a great candidate, but he had a lot of help from Donald Trump Jr. It's kind of miraculous how far he's come.

in just two years. Well, and remember how instrumental Trump's endorsement of him was. And there were the moments where Trump would go and campaign with him and would talk about... Trump, you know...

in his Trumpiness would talk about what J.D. Vance used to say about him on stage. And there was the moment one time where he said that, you know, J.D. Vance was willing to kiss his ass on stuff now after he had endorsed him because Trump knows the power of his endorsement and what that means. It's just another fascinating offshoot in this world of politics that we cover.

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Do you think there's anywhere that the Trump team is afraid to go with Kamala when they attack her? I was told that advisors are telling him that he needs to be more segmented and methodical in the way he attacks her. So as not to alienate just women, people of color in general. I mean, I don't think that Trump will be able to stick with that long term. But do you think that they're aware of that or they don't really care? I think

they're definitely aware of it. I mean, Trump has some very savvy political aides around him that are that are considering that very thing. But as you know, you know, it's ultimately up to the candidate himself how he executes that. What does that look like on a debate stage? What does it look like in interviews? Last night, he was asking why she has stopped laughing. And that's been, you know, a point that they've mocked her about her laugh.

And so I do think it's a question of what this looks like. He hasn't challenged a woman on the in the political scene since Hillary Clinton in 2016. Obviously, he called her a nasty woman. We saw what that looked like on the debate stage. So it will be fascinating if there is a debate between the two of them. And they both said that there will be.

What does that actually look like when they're in the same room? I do think there are some Republicans who are concerned about him going there when it comes to, you know, her race and her gender and what that looks like. Whether or not it actually materializes, you know, we'll see what that looks like. But but it is a it's much tougher to run against someone like that than, you

A white man who is relatively the same age as you, which is what they had with Joe Biden. It wasn't the same kind of concern. So it has opened up a new battlefield in that front, I think. OK, Kamala Harris's big announcement. Who is she going to pick for VP? It's going to be in probably the next six to 10 days. I was told it could be even sooner. What are you hearing? What are you thinking?

I'm hearing Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro. It's pretty much come down to those two. What are your sources telling you? This is like the question that everyone has. And I think it's because just randomness that we didn't expect to be at the beginning of August, basically.

wondering who the vice presidential pick is going to be. And so it's tough to know because they've kept everything very close to the vest. You know, we've been talking to a ton of sources about this, all the people who are being vetted, obviously with Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina taking his name out of consideration yesterday. It adds another wrinkle to this because he was also seen as someone who could be a safe bet.

He spent years as an attorney general, as Harris herself did. They had an overlapping experience there. He was part of the Duke lacrosse case, all of that. And so now with his name removed from it, I think people are watching Shapiro very closely. Mark Kelly, Tim Walls of Minnesota, even Pete Buttigieg, I think is not at the very top of everyone's list as we're speculating. But we had Pete Buttigieg on the show last week. And I think one thing that they...

this search has showcased is the level of talent that the Democrats have in the sense of their best surrogates that can be out of the campaign trail. These arguments, they have, they are, that's part of the reason that JD Vance's comments have gotten such scrutiny is because in

Andy Beshear talks about it on Monday night. Pete Buttigieg talks about it another night. He was really great. You did a great job on that interview with him. Yeah, and they're all really trying to showcase, I can be a good governing partner, but also I'm going to help you campaign and effectively go after these people that you're challenging. So I do think...

That is a big part of this is who is going to be a savvy communicator out there, because when you've got 90 days to do it, you know, it's not a ton of time to shape your message. And the bench. I mean, everyone says the Democrats don't have a bench, or at least that was the reasoning behind not.

primarying Biden. There were fears that the Democrats couldn't come up with a stronger ticket to take on Donald Trump. Or as Biden said, I'm the only one who beat him in 2020. I'm the one who can beat him in 2024. And it turns out they actually had a really strong bench all along, right? Go figure. I didn't answer because I don't know who she's going to pick. And I hate to speculate and guess, but I don't genuinely know. But I do think it'll be

It'll be really interesting to see what that looks like. And I do think the conventional wisdom that people don't elect a president based off of who their vice president is, is probably true, but we've seen how crucial a vice president can be by both of these presidencies, Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's with how Mike Pence, uh,

acted on January 6th against intense pressure that he faced. So I do think if we've learned anything over the last few years, it's that the vice presidential pick does really matter. And we've seen how that's played out. And so it will be a really fascinating thing to watch. I do think you're right. I think we could know as soon as this weekend who her selection is. Mark Shapiro, though, could deliver. Pennsylvania is the feeling. But do vice presidential candidates ever really deliver states?

It's kind of unclear. He's so popular there, though. The Fox News poll that came out last week, his favorables are like, and I might not be quoting this exactly, but I believe it was like 61 to 25 or something. And obviously they've got a Senate race there with Bob Casey and Dave McCormick. And so there's so many different dynamics at play here of, you know, Arizona's got Mark Kelly. And if he's put on the ticket, what does that mean for that Senate seat in a few years when there's a special? I mean, there's just...

Never ending stories here. Yeah, I was on Megyn Kelly's show yesterday and she was pointing out that he actually kind of sounds like Obama in his tone and tenor. If you listen to his voice, he's a really powerful speaker. Josh Shapiro or? Yeah, Josh Shapiro. He was he was and you know, you were just talking about being good on the campaign trail. I watched his his campaign yesterday with him.

with Gretchen Whitmer. And he was very, just very blunt and, you know, expletive laden. Also, that was something that we were focusing on. He's keeping it real. Yeah. A lot of four letter words there. Yeah. And then there's obviously Mark Kelly, who I hear a ton from Republicans that they're worried about him being on the ticket. I don't think that he puts Arizona in play because obviously...

Trump is ahead by like seven points in Arizona. But who knows? I mean, the Republicans will definitely have to spend a lot more money in Arizona. They've got Carrie Lake on the ticket. She's not the strongest person running for Senate. I think everyone can agree that Georgia is now in play with Kamala at the top of the ticket.

might be more competitive. And then that means Trump basically has to win Pennsylvania. And Trump lost by half a percentage point in the last election in Pennsylvania. Yeah, it is fascinating. And also Mark Kelly has a service record, which obviously J.D. Vance does as well. And so that's another dynamic that I've heard is at play and how they're looking at

you know, what this means. And I think that's why Trump in a, to a degree, wavered on making his final VP selection is he did want to see what was going to play out with Democrats because Trump has a great political instinct. I mean, everyone who's covered him, who likes him or doesn't like him, his allies as well, will acknowledge this. And he knows that small things like that can make a difference. And especially in a race where we've seen how much

the margins do matter. All right, Caitlin, thank you so much for your time. This was fascinating as always. Definitely check out Caitlin's show. It airs every night, 9 p.m. on CNN. That's Eastern time. It's The Source. And Caitlin comes in every day with some fresh reporting and some spicy interviews, really holding lawmakers to account. So you got to check her out. And I hope you'll come back on the pod.

Yeah, this was great. It's so fun. It feels like the conversation we had earlier, this feels like we just had the exact same conversation here. It's genuinely what we're talking about behind the scenes and sharing that with people, which I always think is the best way to use your reporting and to showcase it and to let people know what we're genuinely hearing from people. So thank you for having me. The green room conversation is actually happening right here, right now. Yes.

Okay. Well, that was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, you can go to puck.news slash Tara dash Palmieri, and you can use the discount code Tara20 for 20% off a subscription at Puck. See you again tomorrow.

This episode is brought to you by Jersey Mike's Subs. Jersey Mike's uses only the highest quality meat sliced right in front of you, piled high with the freshest toppings. It is a Jersey Mike thing. My favorite is number 13, the Italian. Love the Italian. I'm half Italian. I like Italian subs. I especially like Italian subs made in good places. Like Jersey Mike's, planning your summer picnic, backyard adventure, or beach day? Well, Jersey Mike's. They have you covered with everything you need to beat the summer heat.

They have your favorite summer sub combo. They have everything you want at Jersey Mike's. A sub above. Order on the app today or visit jerseymikes.com to learn more. Great app, by the way.