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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. On the show, I speak to one of Trump's OG political advisors, David Urban. He has been advising Donald Trump on his Pennsylvania operation, the all-important battleground state that he won in 2016 by 44,000 votes, but lost to Biden in 2020 by 81,000 votes. David Urban is a
is a former chief of staff to Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. I don't know if you remember him, but he was a Democrat, then a Republican, then a Democrat. He's one of the, I guess you could say, original rhinos or Republicans in name only. So David has an interesting point of view. He is a political commentator with CNN. He's not officially on the Trump campaign, although he has...
the former president's ear. We talk about the ground game in Pennsylvania and how every vote counts. And yet Donald Trump has been really trashing mail-in voting, which is something that the RNC and the Trump campaign has been pushing. They know they need every vote and that means mail-in voting. But yet
Trump is calling it rigged and corrupt. And clearly there are two different messages going out to voters. They don't know whether it's safe or not to vote by mail, but it is certainly an advantage that the Republicans need in this state. So we talk about that. We also talk about Trump's increasingly fanatical biblical turn. How his rallies have almost become like...
evangelical sermons. We also talk about what Senate seats the Republicans would pick up in the next Congress. They are poised to take back the Senate if all goes well. And we talk about the ground game. What can money buy at this point, especially when Biden has way more money than Trump, but he's still lagging in the polls in these battleground states?
David, I'm so glad you're on the pod with us. I have a bazillion questions with you. I want to talk about the Senate map, what you see in terms of pickups for Republicans. I want to talk to you about Pennsylvania, where you are an expert after serving as chief of staff to Arlen Specter. And winning Pennsylvania for Trump for the first time.
in 30 years. That's right. You ran the ground game over there. And, you know, I want to talk to you about money and how much does it really buy you at this point? I have a ton of questions. But first, I want to ask you about this religious revival around Donald Trump right now. There is a fervor. There is a movement. Right now he is selling Bibles. Who came up with that idea, first of all?
I think whoever did the sneakers did Bibles next. What's coming next, though? That's why I want to know. Rosary beads? Listen, I don't know, but if somebody's buying them, I think it's a great idea. So SNL joked that you could get a toaster that makes Trump's imprint on the toast.
Because sometimes people see religious figures on their toast. Listen, I know people will buy it, right? That's the great part. I'm sure they will. They'll probably buy his old tissues as well. But yeah, I mean, there's a story in the New York Times. Michael Bender, he's a great reporter, always figures out how to put it all together. Michael's a good friend, yep. He was at a recent rally where it was really like an evangelical preaching from Trump. He's talking about...
And he's like, we will pray to God for our strength and for our liberty. We'll pray for God and we'll pray for it. And people have their hands up and they're like bending their heads in devotion and fealty. And like I always said, and others have said this, like Trump has cast himself as like the ultimate martyr, right? Like he is not being prosecuted to his followers. He is being persecuted. And this is a movement, right? It's almost a religious movement.
but I don't know, this is taking it a whole other step. Do you think this is like alienates some people? Does he really need to gin up the evangelicals any further? I mean, they're already there with him. Yeah, no, listen, I think that your point is well taken about this. Trump, it's a persecution, not a prosecution. I think a lot of the base believes that thanks to Alvin Bragg and Fannie Willis and others. So I think that, you know, there's that. But
- You know, you've been to these rallies before. They're always a little bit, they're always a little bit like going to church, right?
A little bit of it is, can I get an hallelujah? Right. Can I get an hour? Right. Which is weird because Trump does not have that Southern Baptist history or evangelical born again thing in his DNA. Right. He's a guy from Queens. I agree. Listen, he's he's a populist billionaire. Right. Go figure. Right. Who is who is not that religious, but people who are religious love them because Tara, I submit this. They believe that.
that he is fighting for them. And he's the first person who's ever like not fought by the Marcus of Queensberry rules, you know, took, take rolled up his sleeves and spot dirty, quote unquote, like the other side has been fighting for years. You know, the previous Republicans were very, you know, uh, buttoned up pearl clutching white wine, swelling and afraid to kind of get in and mix it up on behalf of evangelicals and Christians. And so I think that,
That demographic, that part of the electorate is willing to look past a lot of flaws for a guy who is going to war for them. So there's a woman who's quoted in the Times story saying they've crucified him worse than Jesus. And then apparently there was something, a meme that was going around the crucifixion of Trump. There is a devotion, but he doesn't need to ask.
these people anymore. Like they are activated. They thank him for Roe v. Wade. I don't disagree. They're not voting for Joe Biden. Right. So what he needs to be activating are people who are kind of repelled by all of this. Well, I don't know. I mean, you know, so so let's think about that. Right. The base, I think, that Trump has established already, right. These working class white America. Right. Let's just call that for
He's expanding that into Hispanics, right? Into African Americans who work. And listen, the Hispanic community, very religious community, right? Very Catholic, primarily Catholic, right? Primarily Catholic, but devoutly religious there.
There are many, many, you know this, go to Philadelphia, go to any big city, and look at how many black churches there are who really, you know, are very politically active and not necessarily down with everything that the Biden administration is selling, right? I guess they do have a revivalist home. It's a smart idea. He's trying to grow that. He's not necessarily the
you know, Northeast elite Republican base. I think he's looking to grow that base. I mean, I'm really talking about white women, suburban swing voting women. I'm talking about like Nikki Haley voters. That's who I'm talking about. I don't think this wins him black voters for what it's worth. Yeah, listen, I'm not saying that's going to get him a ton. I think you're going to pick up marginally there. But I don't know if it's ever, are the Nikki Haley voters, were they ever going to be Trump voters? Were they ever Trump voters before? Like, I think that they were not to begin with.
I don't think they ever were Trump voters and I don't think they ever will be Trump voters. So I think it may be a little bit of a fool's errand to go chase the handful of Nikki Haley voters that
Probably are never going to vote for you. So you think these are people who voted for Biden and are like actually at this point considering themselves to be Democrats? Yeah, I do. I think like, look, you alluded to the gentleman I worked for before, right? Senator Arlen Specter, right? Right. Who was by all accounts, the Rhino Republican. He really was not, not in the current sense of the term, but in the previous sense of the term, a Rhino Republican in that he was pro-choice, pro-gay marriage,
way before anybody in the Republican Party talked about those things. He was for a big tent, right? And the Arlen Specter voters, right, in the Philly area are not Donald Trump voters. I'll tell you that right now. I mean, they are not voting for Donald Trump, nor have they ever voted for Donald Trump. Are they going to vote for Biden, though? Yeah, well, I believe a lot of them did vote for Biden because guess what? Joe Biden is from basically South Philadelphia, right? Way, way South Philadelphia in Delaware.
But, you know, he's painted himself as the son of Philadelphia and raises money there, has big ties in the city of Philadelphia, in the suburbs.
And so I do believe a lot of those Republicans voted for Joe Biden in 20, not so much in 16. They may have sat on the sidelines in 16 and not voted at all. Or maybe they took a flyer on Trump in 16. But they're not going to be fooled again. And they didn't vote for him in 20. They're not voting for him in 24. All right, let's just get to PA. I know you want to talk about it. So I had Brendan Boyle, congressman from Philly. Yep, nice guy. Yeah, great guy. He's on the podcast. We like him a lot. He...
He made a prediction that Biden will win Pennsylvania by half a percentage point this time. I think he won by a point and a half in the last election. Is that right? In 2020? What do you predict? I predict this, Tara, right? And having done this a little bit, right? This is kind of, this is not really, this is a lot of art, not a lot of science here because it does require you to kind of spend some time and drive around Pennsylvania and talk to people and, you know,
you know, stopping the gas stations, convenience stores. When you're checking out of the grocery store, you ask the, you know, the clerk, you know, what do you, what do you think about this election? Who are you voting for? They don't know who I am. I'm just kind of a person asking. Right. And you get, you get a sense. And my sense is that this election is much, much more like 16 than 20. And what do I mean by that? In 16,
Hillary Clinton was not very well liked, to put it mildly, right? She was not very well liked. She was polarizing. Very polarizing, right? Biden wasn't in 2020. He really wasn't in 2020. Not in 2020. In 2020, it's the Uncle Joe. I'm going to be the bridge to the future. I'm going to be this moderate. I'm going to bring people together. Right. Stop the chaos. Yeah. Adult in the room. Yeah. Pandemic was so draining on so many people. And I think that
being locked at home watching tiger joe or whatever we all watched right on netflix till our eyes bled right trying to drink disinfectant as yeah i mean there's so much stuff there's so much stuff going on that everybody said well look joe biden at least he's not trump we'll give him we'll give him a shot right right yes and then as soon as he gets in the office he unzips a suit and out jumps bernie sanders and elizabeth warren's love child but it was actually
was actually the Afghanistan withdrawal was when his real numbers started to plummet. Afghanistan, but also the progressives, the slide to the progressive left was just really much more than I think people bargained for, right? So if you travel around Pennsylvania, what do you hear? You talk to working class people, they're pissed that their kids aren't going to school for free. I paid for my kids' college to go to Penn State. I worked double shifts. Why do these kids now get to go to free education? The thing is not as
free as people imagine. It's not free for voters. So there's just a panoply of reasons that people don't like Joe Biden this time, right? So it's going to be a much closer race. I know Brendan's a very good Democrat. He is a smart guy.
I don't think that in the current state of the record, Tara, on the current state, if the election were held today, Trump wins by probably 50 to 75,000 votes. Wow. Still a nail biter. What is that? A half a point or is that a... I'm not sure because it all depends on the number of voters, right? How many people turn out to vote. But that's the range, right? Because remember in 2016...
We won by 44,000, almost 45,000 votes. And in 20, I remember telling the president, he said, do you think I could really lose this guy? And I ran through the reasons why I did think you could lose to them, right? The pandemic and four years of just getting the snot kicked out of them by the media. And I said, yeah, you could lose. And I think the margin is going to be what I just said to you. You're either going to win, Mr. President, or you're going to lose by 50,000 to 75,000 votes.
Because that's how Pennsylvania is. It's just that purple state. I totally get you. But then again, you see Senator Bob Casey, he's polling ahead of the Republican candidate, Dave McCormick, by like 10 points right now. I don't know. I don't know if it's 10. It was at one point a few months ago. I don't know if it's 10. I think
I think that race right now, the six-point race, probably right now, just outside the margin of error in favor of Bob Casey. But Terry, here's why, if you're a Democrat, you're nervous about that race in Pennsylvania. Bob Casey's been there for 20 years, right? And if you look, a lot of people still don't know who Bob Casey is on the polling. They're like, yeah, I'm not really sure. The undecideds are huge. His favorability is below 50%. You think that you'd be
really developed a following by this point in time, right? And so the fact that he's so unknown to so many people is not great. I agree with you. But Dave McCormick, this is his second time running. He lost last time. He lost the Republican primary to Dr. Oz, probably thanks to Trump because Trump endorsed Oz. Oz ended up losing to Fetterman, who's become a bit of a national sensation at this point. I was there. I was on the ground. All too painful to remember.
Yeah, I'm sure. Casey, though, he could give Biden essentially a bump if he is pulling ahead of McCormick by six points or so. Here's where I think Biden's going to get a bump. Not from Bob Casey. It's from Josh Shapiro. Oh, the very popular governor. Is he up? Is he on the top of the ticket? No, but he's articulate. He's a great guy. People love him. He's got a bright future. And Josh Shapiro, if Biden wins...
should be the reason that everyone accredited. I mean, it's not going to be because Joe Biden wildly popular. It's going to be because Josh Shapiro puts him on his back and carries him like a dead soldier across a battlefield. Wow. This is why you're on all the TV shows, Dave, because of lines like that. Oh, Tara. I mean, it's a fact, right? Josh Shapiro is wildly popular. His motto is get shit done, right? The guy is
He just saved the steel mill in Western Pennsylvania by going against the Biden administration and kind of punching him in the nose and making him reverse course. I mean, the people in Pennsylvania love the guy, right? And so Bob Casey's not that persuasive a character. I don't think he spent a lot of time. Bob's an incredibly nice guy. The best thing Bob Casey has going for him, Tara, and you'll ask people in Pennsylvania, you say, what do you think about people will say,
He's a nice guy. No one is ever going to say Bob Casey's a terrible person. And so that is what, you know, no one's ever going to say he's a great guy, but no one's going to say he's a terrible guy. And so it's hard, you know, unless you're really vilified, uh,
It's hard to run negative ads and make someone a villain when they're really not a villain. And Bob is not a villain. He's a decent guy. I think he's largely ineffective. I think you'll see when he ran against Santorum, there's this famous ad where he's on Meet the Press with Tim Russert, which I suspect you'll see a lot in this campaign, where he says, Rick Santorum votes to be president 98% of the time. And I submit when you have
two people with that same voting record, you only need one of them. Meaning we could get rid of Rick Santorum. And so Bob Casey's voting record is 99% with Joe Biden. And I suspect that the McCormick campaign will dust that off
and put a billion points behind it and run it. I saw their latest ad, though, about McCormick being a West Point. Hey, wait, hold on. Remember who went to West Point here, Tara? I know, I know. You're a West Point vet. Are you working on his campaign, by the way? Well, I'm not getting paid, but I help him. Yeah, of course. You guys are bros.
Okay. You don't like, you don't like the, you don't like the wrestling ad. It's a nice ad. I just don't know how effective it is, but it is, it is a nice ad. Here's what I think. It's a good ad. It's relatable. If you spend a Friday night in Pennsylvania, every Friday night gyms across Pennsylvania, there's thousands of people watching their kids or neighbors wrestle, right? It is a rite of passage. It's a big deal. It's like Friday night football, Friday night wrestling is a big deal. Got it. See, I'm a Jersey girl, so I don't really quite understand Pennsylvania. Yeah.
If you're state champion wrestler, captain of the wrestling team at West Point, it's notable. Josh Shapiro, though, you're right. He is a superstar in the Democratic Party, often spoken about as being on the bench in case of emergency and possible 2028 star. So that is someone to think of and know. And maybe we'll have him on the show. He's a great guy. If you need help, let me know. OK, you're going to book him for us, Dave. Yeah.
I haven't. So listen, so Josh Shapiro and I, we've known each other since 1996, 97. He was Joe Huffles' chief of staff when I was Arnold Spector's chief of staff. We became friends then and have been friends since. See, it all comes full circle. I do want to talk to you about something you were quoted about in the, in Washington Post. And I actually talk about this often to friends. I don't know if I talk about it enough on the show, but I really think that
Trump really shot himself in the foot when he went against mail-in voting. And who knows? He could have maybe won. Unclear. Especially during a pandemic. I mean, people were dying in the streets and you want them to go out and vote? No one was dying here in Florida, just for the record, just so you know. Fair enough. But you have said that the ground game in Pennsylvania is way behind. Absolutely.
I mean, can you ever convince these voters, these Republicans that maybe believe that mail-in voting is rigged, as Donald Trump often says? Can you convince them that it's safe? Will it affect turnout for Trump? Is he going to shoot himself in the foot again? And also, one last thing, the RNC, can I just say this, has spent a ton of money on trying to support the get out
the vote, mail-in balloting early effort. It's basically why it is anemic at this point. It has $9 million in the bank because it spends so much money on fraudulent election lawsuits, which are baseless, or get-out-the-vote efforts for mail-in balloting. So can you just explain to me what is the state right now in Pennsylvania, and do you think Pennsylvania could be lost because of this? Listen, I
I think it's so important. I can't overemphasize when I see the president, I mentioned to him, I met, you know, I know for a fact that he, while the Chris Lesta Vita, the job brave bender, uh,
Ryan, Jack, Jason Miller, the Brain Trust, the Trump campaign team, which is far and away better than anything they've had in the past two election cycles, even when I was there in 16. I know that they believe like I do that mail-in and early voting and vote by mail is really important this cycle. We talked about the odds election with John Fetterman.
Fetterman had banked a million five votes before the first debate. Before that debate where everybody watched Fetterman kind of stumble and stutter and say, oh man, I don't know if this guy's up for the job. He'd already won the election. It was too late by that point, right? And just as you say-
It is against our interests as Republicans to not participate fully where the law allows us to. We need to vote by email. We need to vote early. We need to, in states where it's harvesting, we need to do all those things because we will not win otherwise. It is just, you're leaving money on the table. You're leaving votes on the table. And Tara, you know this, on election day, it helps you on election day because if you go through the voter rolls,
You could say, well, listen, Tara voted, Christopher Sutton voted. Oh, David Urban didn't vote. Let's go knock on his door and drag him to the polls, right? So you know who you need to drag to the poll by election day. You're not wasting effort, wasting bodies and wasting money by knocking on doors you don't need to.
And why does Trump keep saying this over and over again, that it is rigged? Because somehow in somewhere, in some universe, somebody convinced him that it was fraught with peril. Dead people are voting, right? That's what they told him. They're going to some monastery in Italy and being, you know, tampered with. Right. And look, Terry, you know, like there's always this anecdotal stories of and in Pennsylvania, there has been lots of voter fraud in the city of Philadelphia. And when I mean lots,
I mean, you know, thousands of votes here. The state Senate race was overturned at one time. But this is much more that's more into a party that's Democrats cheating on other Democrats right in primaries where you can really move the numbers. Right. I don't think it's a huge problem. Otherwise, they'd have been ferreted out by the Department of Justice by this point. But there's this depression.
that somehow it's just not kosher, right? But this is what I find interesting here. People will bank on their phones. They will move their money. They'll pay all their bills on their phone. Right. But they're afraid to go to a polling place and vote, right? They're afraid of mailing in something. But they'll transfer their entire life savings with the press of a button on an app. Right. If people are convinced to do that, that's secure. I'm not quite sure. I don't believe that D-Bolt, the same people who make their...
Their ATM machines make the voting machine. I'm not sure why they believe those are not secure. So we do have a challenge on our side of convincing people to do it. Do you have the ground game right now in Pennsylvania to do it? Interesting part about the Trump world, right, is the ground game is largely organic, right? The Trump campaign will have enough money and enough people on the ground to compete in the states where it's necessary, right? I can't speak because I'm not quite sure what is in fact necessary.
in place in Pennsylvania at this point in time, right? So I can't stay with any certainty like, oh, I know we have 10 offices and here's what's happening. And again, like I always say this,
activity doesn't mean, you know, that it's good. You can have a lot of activity and accomplish nothing, right? So it's, let's make sure we spend our money where we need to. Let's have offices strategically located in the state. Let's do, be doing the things we need to do. Like, we need to be registering people to vote, right? Just, you know, Scott Pressler, this gentleman who is,
you know, who's been out there kind of a flamboyant character. They were almost going to bring him into the RNC, but then that was stopped. He's still continuing to work on the outside. He's relocated to Pennsylvania. He's going to work to double his efforts. And look, he's
He's been registering to be Amish. I mean, you don't think that's a big deal. It is a big deal in Pennsylvania. Amish, there's, you know, 100,000 Amish voters in Pennsylvania. And it takes a long time to get to a precinct by a male, what is it, cart and buggy that they're using still? The great thing about democracy is there's votes counted like anybody else. And so
you know, it's great. And kudos to Scott and others who are doing that in Pennsylvania. Dave McCormick's campaign is working with some other folks in the state and getting people to vote, registered by mail to vote and get it done early. So you're right. It is a big issue, not just in Pennsylvania, but nationwide, right? And these other swing states, if people are not voting by mail and voting early and banking their votes, what's going to happen on election night? Will we, you know, just like it is everywhere,
We're ahead. Republicans are ahead. Then they go to bed and they wake up and they're like, we lost. How did we lose? Well, because Democrats, people had voted three weeks before. You're basically fighting a conspiracy theory, though, that was started last election. Do you think that people and it was fueled by the leader of the party, but do you think at this point people are
actually believe that mail-in voting is safe? I mean, where are you at right now? Have you done any polling on that? Some people think it's still perilous, right? They think it's rigged and they're not going to do it, right? And that's a problem for the Republicans. We've got to convince those people that it's safe. And they need to mail in their ballots, right? They can vote by mail. It's okay to do so. If our election day would be a federal holiday,
We'd all vote. We'd all have like a purple thumb like you do in these other third world countries, right? Everyone would be like, I voted, right? And then the great part is on election night, we would know who the winner is. I think this is what's undermined faith in American election systems is that we go to bed on election night and we may not know for weeks or months. I think in California, in these races, I think there's still counting ballots on the out of shift, you know, these races out there. It's not the final count. It's a joke.
We can do it. The state of Florida, because of Bush v. Gore, right, that 100 years ago, they got their stuff together in the state. And now on election night, you vote by mail, right? You can vote by mail. But on election night, they have a tally. And at midnight, they press a button. And poof, we know who won the state of Florida. If they can do it, other states can do it. And they need to do it for America. Because people will lose trust in the system when we're waiting and we don't know. It's not fair to Americans.
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I want to talk to you about the Senate map because you are an expert in the Senate right now for
Republicans are poised to take it back, right? They just need to flip two seats, essentially, right? Two or three. But they could use a buffer. Yeah, you look at the state of races in the Senate, right? So with Joe Manchin going away, right? Boom. Done. Jim Justice. There's no universe in which the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate seat, right? So now we're at 50-50. Because Trump won West Virginia by like 39 points, right? Crazy. Huge number.
And Jim Justice is like Trump, but from West Virginia. Remember, he was a Democrat at one point. Yeah, he's kind of like Joe Manchin, but he is a character. He's very large, needs support to walk, has a bulldog named Baby Dog or something like that. And he insists on bringing his bulldog with him everywhere, including during his speeches. So yeah, there are going to be a lot of characters in the Senate, and it looks like he will be one of them. So he's one. And then if you look across the other two next...
teardown of pretty tough races to lose, right? So John Tester... In Montana. He's a very good candidate, but he's got a tough race. He's running against a Montanan who's a former Navy SEAL, who's a firefighter. I mean, the guy's got a central casting. I mean, handsome,
war veteran, you know, from the state, really gets it. Tim Sheehy. Sheehy, yeah, right. That's who you're talking about. Yeah. But he's an incredible candidate, right, in a state that Trump carried by a big margin, right? So if you're a tester who looks, by the way, who's a farmer, he looks the part. Little road talent. He's an affable guy, good candidate, right? How long has he been in the Senate now? He's got to be close to 20 years himself. But he's a guy who's just in a very tough race. Yeah, it's just...
It's gravity, political gravity. Can you defy political gravity? And then back to the East Coast, the next person I think is in grave danger is Sherrod Brown in the magenta-red state of Ohio. Right. Increasingly red. Ohio's Pennsylvania without Philadelphia. I mean, J.D. Vance just won in the last election. And listen, Sherrod Brown is a very good senator, campaigner. Again, tough guy, but
You can't political gravity. How much money do you think will be thrown into that race from the Republicans and the Democrats into Ohio? Do you think that'll be the race that they spend the most money on? No, Pennsylvania will have the most. You think so? Pennsylvania will be well north of a couple hundred million bucks in Pennsylvania. And that's on the Senate race? The Senate race, right. And the thinking is that they will, it will like drag up. Well, there are a couple of competitive house seats in Pennsylvania, right? They're still up for grab. There's a congressman in the, kind of goes up to Schuylkill Valley.
He's a trial lawyer. I can only general his name. But so he's running. And then in the in the western part of the state, there's a very liberal congressman who's running against another West Point grad younger guy. And so these are very competitive House races. So those will be competitive. McCormick will be competitive. They're going to pump a bunch of money in. So Trump.
It makes that race much more competitive as well. But it might be a split ticket type of situation in Pennsylvania and in Ohio, right? What's the percentage of split ticket voting right now? I'm not really... It's in the teens. Is it really? It's down to the teens. Yeah, it doesn't happen a lot anymore, unfortunately. So I think that you'll see like in 16, remember Donald Trump ran and won and Pat Toomey also kind of squeaked across the finish line, right? They both...
They ran separate races, different races, but they both won. I think that's what will happen in Pennsylvania. The Venn diagram of McCormick supporters and Trump supporters kind of abuts each other. They're not necessarily a lot of overlap. It's like the two me and Trump voters. I think you'll see that. That's why Pennsylvania will have a ton of money. But going back to the Senate, so you have those three seats that will kind of flip.
Then let's not forget, here's another sleep. Don't sleep on Larry Hogan in Maryland, right? This is a state that nobody was thinking about, right? And I will give Senator Daines all the credit in the world for recruiting Larry Hogan to run.
He's the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It was deeply mismanaged in the last election in 2022 when Rick Scott was running it from Florida. He did not play in the primaries. One thing that Senator Daines did that Rick Scott did not do is that he really tried to support Democrats.
strong candidates that he thought could win the general election. And he tried to pick more moderate candidates that he knew could win the general election. And a big part of that was keeping Trump's voice out of it and not picking MAGA candidates, extremists that he thought couldn't win. And in this case, he basically got Trump to not tear apart Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan is
and Trump have clashed, but Trump has been pretty quiet. I think that really this is about Steve Daines being able to manage Donald Trump. He also got Tim Sheehy in Montana to win the primary. I was going to say, remember Rosendale? Rosendale was going to be the guy. He's MAGA. He's the kind of candidate that Trump would have picked. Yeah.
And Rick Scott did not try to manage Trump in any way. He let Trump pick Dr. Oz. He let Trump pick Herschel Walker and all these people who couldn't win. And even though Republicans were supposed to win in 2022, they didn't because of it. Well, it's a candidates. Candidates matter. Candidates matter. And so Larry Hogan is a wildly popular candidate.
in the state of Maryland. People tell me, my Democratic friends say, oh, you're crazy. It's Maryland. Well, I think, you know, look at the guy's numbers right now. He's ahead right now. I mean, he was governor of Maryland until like a few years ago. He was governor of Maryland until like last year, right? I mean, he's incredibly popular. And he did, when Baltimore was on fire and there were riots, he went to Baltimore City and he brought people together. He's an incredible politician that kind of straddled that line. One
one of the few kind of, I dare say moderate Republicans, right? Left in the party who could really, really, uh, excel here. And again, Daines did a great job. He, he, he announced like the day before the filing deadline, pulled a rabbit out of that. And, um, I would say, uh,
That's a race. If people aren't counting on winning, I think Republicans win that seat, which is crazy. That would be crazy. There's a few other toss-ups, right? We've got Arizona. You see my blurred background here? Yeah. You're in Arizona, aren't you? I like Cammy Lake. Really? Listen, I spent a little time with her, right? And I think she gets that she's won the Fox News crowd and she's going to try to figure out how to win others. In real life, she's very charming, right? She was a TV reporter, you well know. I urged her to go on
like CNN and others, wherever they're made. That's where the voters are in Arizona. She kind of terrifies me in the same way that Marjorie Taylor Greene terrifies me. I'm not going to lie. She's got MTG vibes, but she's more polished. Obviously she has a halo on her. Is she carrying one with her at all times? She's well lit. Always. Yeah, she really is. Well, it looks like she's about to ascend at some point. Well,
Don't be a hater. But so interestingly, right? And that race, right? And that race, it's way closer than Democrats would like because Ruben Gallegos, who's the Republican, the Democrat nominee, he's not that great a candidate, right? And so- But he has a military history for sure. He may well have it, but I know he's got some, he's got some issues and he's been banged around a bit. He's not well loved across the state. So that is a race. Remember, Arizona is a very purple to red state.
I think Terry Lake tops her back down a little bit on the election denialism, right? Kind of tries to get those moderate vote, you know, moderate Republicans back. It's, you know, she's a very popular character in the state. She tries though, but then it like she goes, her default is to go there though. Is there any world in which Kyrsten Sinema helps her? No, no.
Never. Never. I mean, I can't see that happening, but like the world that we live in now, the political world is so bananas. She needs cinema voters essentially to win. She needs cinema. She needs independent voters to come with her. Right. What is your polling show right now? Where are they at? I don't know the current polling in Arizona, but they were, they were very, they were tight. She was down. She's down a little bit. Right. Because within the margin of error, just outside the margin there. But I think this, you look at cinema, you,
You look at Carrie Lake, they're both strong women. She's going to lean into her gender? You're not allowed to do genderism as a Republican? Come on. Listen, when people go to vote, they vote for a wide variety of crazy reasons. You know this. Feelings. I get it. Also, I think Trump is leading Biden by a few points on Arizona right now, right? He's up, but
But if you're up by a skinny margin, it's not so may not be enough to carry you across the finish line. Yep. And then you went into Michigan, just popped over there. The big state. Mike Rogers, the heck of a candidate. Right. He's a very strong candidate. Great House member. Republican. Republican. Very serious person. Right. I like I like his shots. I like, you know, think about Michigan. When you see the president going to Michigan, what do you see?
protesters in the streets. Dearborn, Michigan, right, has 160,000 Arab Americans in the city of Dearborn. Biden won the state by 155,000 votes, right? If those folks in Michigan and Dearborn show up and vote for... Uncommitted. 100,000 voted uncommitted. Right? I mean, what does that do to Biden's chances? I think it really hurts him. And I think that... So that's why...
I think Mike Rogers stands a way better chance in Michigan than would normally stand a good chance, right? He's got a,
tough race, but he's a great, he's a warrior, a good candidate. And he's not, you know, Mike Rogers, he's a pretty normal mainstream guy. Elisa Slotkin though, is who he's running up against. And she's a very strong candidate as a Democrat. Slotkin's got a great national security background, is very, very serious candidate, right? She is not a lightweight. She's a very serious person. And I think that's going to be a big battle. And then, and then just go kind of to Wisconsin with
Oh, I don't know. I forgot his name. Oh...
H-O-V-E-E. I always screw it up. I've met him. He's a very nice guy. I don't know if you've seen his ads. He's like, they say I'm not from Wisconsin. And he jumps in this frozen lake to swim. And he's swimming in this like, literally he's breaking the ice to swim in the whole thing. I mean, it gets your attention. You don't like the wrestling ad. You may not like that ad. I don't know anything about him, but now that you've told me about this and I know about all these candidates, he's the only one I don't know about. Why is that? I don't know. I had dinner with him and, um,
really interesting down to earth guy. He's kind of a very successful businessman, self-ponder and, and he's a debt. He's dedicated himself to win. And he,
He's putting in the effort, putting the time. He's got his, he's very catchy. His ads, he just comes across as a real person. You want to have a beer with. Yeah. They already had their primary and he won. He's the guy. Yeah. Okay. The other guy I just like to give a plug for, right. Is, um, Sam Brown in Nevada, another West point graduate combat wounded, got severely burned. He ran and lost in the last Senate race in the primary, but he is raising a ton of money. He's really working hard.
I like his chances in Nevada. Don't sleep on Sam Brown in Nevada. That's another race that I think is going to be on the map. You heard it here. You can go back and people will be like, I heard it on the terrorist podcast, Sam Brown.
Sam Brown. Yeah. So there's a big reason, though, that we care about the Senate, right? Huge. Republicans could pick up a few seats and they would have the Senate majority. They're more likely to have a Senate majority than a House majority, don't you think? Yeah, I agree with you there. I think that the House is kind of in peril, right, because of so many of these seats in the Northeast are in Biden won districts before that are up for grabs. And then, you know, New York, they've got great members of Congress, but they're in tough spots. Right. So we're going to see those. But
That'd be pretty close. Yeah, those are the guys that picked up seats in the last election when Biden was not on the top of the ticket. And the conventional wisdom is that they lose. And by the way, Republicans aren't distinguishing themselves when they're in the majority right now. So if you're thinking about who's going to run the body and you look at the Republicans and the job they're doing currently, I think you might have a second thought and say, what have they done? Because they're kind of blowing stuff up here a little bit.
Okay. Say Republicans pick up three seats, whatever. They get the majority back and they only have like a one seat majority, right? That would be one seat majority, I think, right? Yeah. Three seats. Yeah. Okay. So they get three seats. The question is like, would Trump push to end the filibuster? No. You don't think so? No. The filibuster is such an institutional best. They ended it on judicial appointments during his term. Well, certain judicial appointments. And that was the Democrats. Democrats said that Harry Reid
did it right and and i think the democrats rue the day that harry reid did that right because it's it's nothing it's proved nothing but bad for for them uh but you know terry it is this this is a difference between the house and the senate that's the only difference really right it's you know it is the filibuster keeps the senate from doing really crazy shit yeah right
I mean, otherwise you're going to get really nutty stuff. It'll be like a 50 year being in the house. It's like 50 year high school, right? Less whiplash. Yeah. I mean, what's the difference between the Senate and the House without the filibuster? There is none technically. I was just thinking Trump would probably want to blow it up. If the Republicans take back the Senate, I wonder if there'll be a revenge of the moderates. Cause I don't know if you saw Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. She was on, I think CNN. And she said she might vote with the Democrats. Yeah.
What do you think about that? I think she probably votes with Democrats on some things now, right? So I don't think so. She'll probably register as an independent and caucus of the Republicans. If you're Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins, you're one of these kind of...
really, really moderate people. Your power is at that point right there. You caucus with the Republicans because you could go, hey, listen, if I don't like it, I'm going to vote with these, I'm going to vote with them. So you're always being ported. Your vote is always more important. It's like being cinema or mansion, essentially, like what we've seen in the last... Cinema or mansion or Arlen Specter. You're always the 60th vote. You're always needed. You always have a seat at the table. It's always important. So
Murkowski is just being smart politically. Anyway, her party already tried to primary her and she won with a write-in, which is crazy. She's that popular in Alaska. You have to spell Murkowski correctly on a write-in. A solid Polish name, by the way, as a Polish-American. As a Pole here, I'm all for it. One last thing, though. Punchbowl says that K Street is...
thinks that Trump will pick Tim Scott. I'm not Kay Street. I'm just a reporter who collects information. I think that Trump will pick Tim Scott. You are both Kay Street and...
A guy who advises Donald Trump and sees him frequently in Mar-a-Lago. What do you think about that? And someone who appears in the media. Look at that. Exactly. So many hats. So many hats. So many hats. Okay, so what do you think, Tim Scott? I think Tim Scott's a smart pick for Donald Trump for a variety of reasons. I think Tim Scott makes Donald Trump less scary because suburban white women in the Philadelphia area. In the Philadelphia area. You actually narrowed it down. Well, I'm just saying, like, if you think about, like,
like Gladwin or Ardmore or Villanova. Yeah, because they think they don't want to vote for Trump because they think he's a racist. But listen, when they pull that curtain pair and they go to vote, they may say, well, listen, I'm really voting for the first black Republican president here because Trump's not going to be around. And then this person's going to be the next person to lead the party. And I think that's a good thing. And so the cognitive dissonance will kick in.
And they'll vote for Trump. Do they really think they're voting for the first black president? I think that they're thinking that it makes Trump look less racist. I don't think people assume that he will be the next president after Trump because he lost pretty badly in the primary. If Donald Trump wins the White House and Tim Scott's his vice president,
When Trump leaves, he will definitely be the front runner to be the next president. It'd be pretty hard. Mike Pence. Well, yeah. OK, well, that's there you go. It might not be the best perch to be running from. Touche. You got that. But I agree with you. I think, look, if you look at across the people who are ready, you know, to be. And listen, I'll give a plug for my good friend and West Point classmate.
Mike Pompeo, if you look at somebody who's ready to be the president tomorrow, you know, you talk about the evangelical vote and the base, who can take care of those folks and who goes to the pro-life marches. And, you know, Mike Pompeo fits that. He's Secretary of State, CIA director, House member.
He can step in and be ready day one. I think the contrast between Kamala Harris and he in a debate would be vivid. I don't ever hear Mike Pompeo's name. He's like just not supplicant enough is what I'm thinking. Unless you have some intel that I don't have. Tara, you see all the names that are being flown out there? You think all those people on that list are actually being considered for vice president? Go down the list. Do you think Byron Donald is really being considered for vice president? No, I actually wrote in my column that he isn't. Okay, well...
a little pushback. I got a little pushback from that. Listen, he's my congressman here. He's a great congressman, right? But, you know, the Constitution, unless he's moving to Montana or Wyoming, right? Byron Donalds.
He's got a constitutional issue, right? So he can't be the vice president. Also, he's a congressman who's only spent like two terms in Congress. He's an incredibly effective communicator for the base, though. He does a great job. Yeah, but Trump doesn't need another communicator. He's the communicator. And Trump does not like a guy who's going to upstage him. That's the other thing. Tulsi Gabbard. Very
Very capable, right? But I don't think she's going to be vice president, right? Why not? I just don't think she's going to be vice president. You asked me why. I just don't think. I mean, why do I think? I have no statistics I can point to other than my gut. And your intel from inside of Mar-a-Lago. Inside the Trump cocoon. Okay, this was really fun. Thank you so much for your time. And I hope to have you back on again. Thank you, guys.
That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it and share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, please go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, the best and the brightest. You can use the discount code Tara20. TBD for some live special programming.