Feeling the Trump Trial Aftershocks With John Heilemann
2024/5/21
Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri
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John Heilemann
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Tara Palmeri
Tara Palmeri：本节目讨论川普封口费案的政治影响，以及该案结果对11月选民投票的影响，并分析川普和拜登竞选活动的现状、即将举行的辩论以及目前的民调数据。她认为，该案的结果（无论是有罪判决、无罪判决还是陪审团无法达成一致）都可能对川普的竞选产生影响，但影响程度难以预测。她还关注拜登在纽约州的支持率低迷，这可能会影响民主党在众议院选举中的表现，并认为拜登在多个关键州落后于川普，民主党对此并不担心，但她认为他们应该更加重视。
John Heilemann：他认为川普封口费案对大选的影响可能微乎其微，因为大多数选民并不关注此案的细节。他分析了科恩证词的可信度问题，以及陪审团可能无法达成一致的可能性。他认为，无论川普封口费案的结果如何，对大选的影响都可能有限，或者对川普有利。他还指出，许多选民并没有关注川普封口费案，因此该案对他们的投票意愿影响有限。他认为，本次大选将是一场胶着战，胜负取决于微小的差距，选民对政治的参与度不高，许多人对本次大选感到厌倦。他分析了拜登政府面临的挑战，包括通货膨胀、阿富汗撤军事件以及拜登的年龄问题，并认为这些问题对拜登的支持率造成了负面影响。他还分析了总统辩论对大选的影响，以及民调结果的可靠性问题，并认为拜登面临着巨大的挑战，但他仍然有机会赢得大选。最后，他还谈到了川普选择副总统的策略，认为川普会利用这个机会来筹集资金和争取支持。
Tara Palmeri: This episode focuses on the political fallout from the Trump hush money trial and whether voters are even paying attention six months out from the election. We also discuss the state of the Trump and Biden campaigns, their upcoming debates, and the current presidential poll numbers. I also discuss how Joe Biden's pitiful numbers in New York state could drag down the Democrats and their dream of taking back the house. I also give my latest analysis and reporting on what Trump is considering for the veep stakes.
John Heilemann: He believes the trial is a dud and won't have much impact on the race. He discusses the strategy of the defense, focusing on the credibility of Michael Cohen. He thinks the most likely outcome is a hung jury or a conviction on some but not all counts. He points out that most people aren't paying attention to the trial and that the election will be fought on the margins. He discusses the challenges facing Biden, including inflation, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Biden's age. He also analyzes the impact of the presidential debates and the reliability of polls, noting that Biden faces significant headwinds but still has a chance to win. Finally, he discusses Trump's VP pick strategy, suggesting Trump will use it to raise money and garner support.
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