cover of episode Diagnosing the Democratic Condition

Diagnosing the Democratic Condition

2024/11/12
logo of podcast Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri

Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri

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Tara Palmeri: 本期节目首先关注特朗普的内阁选择。与2016年相比,此次过渡团队行动迅速,主要基于对特朗普的忠诚度,而非党内权力斗争。 特朗普团队中涌现出新的权力人物,例如埃隆·马斯克和唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.,他们在内阁选择中发挥着重要作用。此外,节目还讨论了特朗普对内阁成员的选择标准,例如忠诚度和公众形象。 在国务卿人选方面,竞争激烈,瑞克·格林内尔和马可·卢比奥是主要候选人。其他职位人选也已陆续确定,例如白宫办公厅主任苏西·怀尔斯、政策副主任史蒂芬·米勒、以及一些在环境保护署和边境执法等部门的关键人物。 Evan Roth Smith: 本期节目重点分析了民主党在2024年总统大选中失利的原因。通过民调数据,我们发现通货膨胀高企和非法移民问题是选民选择特朗普的主要原因。 此外,一个关于Harris的广告(他们/她们)也产生了负面影响,选民认为Harris更关注进步的文化议题,而非经济问题。即使Harris试图与这些政策保持距离,也未能有效消除负面影响。 民调数据显示,通货膨胀和移民问题在各个选民群体中都非常突出,甚至在非洲裔美国人中,通货膨胀也是最主要的问题。 民主党未能有效应对通货膨胀,也没有向选民展示其在移民问题上的有效措施,这为特朗普提供了攻击民主党的机会。 此外,长期以来,民主党在文化议题上的立场也影响了选民对他们的看法。 为了赢得更多选民,特别是拉丁裔选民的支持,民主党需要更加关注选民关心的问题,例如经济和移民,并改变选民对他们的一些误解。 在针对Harris的批评中,与Biden的相似性也是一个重要因素。 最后,Evan建议民主党应该摒弃那些容易被共和党利用来描绘民主党为极端主义政党的观点,从而提高自身的可信度。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Kamala Harris lose the presidential election?

Inflation and immigration were the top issues for voters, with many feeling Democrats didn't address these concerns effectively. The 'they/them' ad also resonated, suggesting Harris prioritized progressive cultural issues over economic urgency.

How did Latino voters perceive Kamala Harris's immigration policy?

Latino voters were particularly concerned about the number of illegal border crossings, viewing it as a significant issue that Democrats failed to handle adequately.

What role did the debt play in voters' decisions?

The debt became a stand-in for inflation, with voters, especially Latino voters, feeling economic pressure and associating government spending with their personal financial struggles.

Why did the Democratic Party struggle to win over non-college educated white women?

The campaign failed to raise the salience of reproductive issues and abortion effectively, which were key for this demographic. Trump's distancing from extreme policies also made the Democratic attack less credible.

What should the Democratic Party focus on to win back voters?

The party needs to disprove misconceptions about its extreme positions, particularly on cultural issues. They should focus on economic issues that matter most to voters and avoid giving airtime to extreme views within the party.

Chapters
Evan Roth Smith from Blueprint discusses the key reasons why Kamala Harris lost the presidential election, focusing on issues like inflation, immigration, and the 'they/them' ad.
  • Inflation and illegal immigration were the top reasons voters rejected Kamala Harris.
  • The 'they/them' ad was particularly effective in swaying swing voters.
  • Democrats failed to effectively communicate their economic policies, leading to voter dissatisfaction.

Shownotes Transcript

Tara begins the pod with an update on Donald Trump’s cabinet selections as his transition team prepares for Inauguration Day. She’s then joined by pollster and founding partner of Slingshot Strategies, Evan Roth Smith, to go through the numbers and break down how Kamala Harris lost the presidential election. They examine which of the gettable voter bases leaned to the right on election day, shine a light on some of Kamala’s political missteps during her campaign, and Evan offers some sobering advice to his Democratic colleagues on how to move forward as a party after this historic loss.

For more of Tara’s reporting, please sign up for her newsletter, 'The Best and the Brightest,' at puck.news/tarapalmeri and use the discount code TARA20.

Host: Tara Palmeri

Guest: Evan Roth Smith

Producer: Chris Sutton

Production Supervision: Conor Nevins

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