Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market
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Our listeners and welcome back to no, priya. Today, i'll be talking with direct mansor cofounder and CEO of coche. Cali is a recently cftc regulated prediction market exchange that's changing how people forecast future events like the upcoming U.

S. Election, the weather, the date of arrival of agi and the jobs report to started calling after study at MIT and working at cid, al and plentier. We'll discuss what a prediction market is if it's a threat to democracy, building a regulated exchange and how how SHE fits into the broader financial ecosystem.

Welcome to act great thing you said thanks .

for having me going be a super exciting um small number of weeks before the election. Can you please explain anybody who hasn't been .

on a is is actually the first legal platform where can basically but yes, snow on any future questions. The thing is really cool is like we visit create a financial instrument where the thing that you're actually buying or selling or trading or betting on is not a stock, is not a bond, not a commodate like oil. It's only more intangible is is actually whether an event is gna happen or not. So on cash, I can biscuit by shares, whether it's gonna in tomorrow, whether tiktok is gna get banned, whether air guidance is gonna get fired as new york mayor, or whether don't trump s going to win the next election.

Okay, cool. I feel like the easiest to get a sense is like, let's make a train. I am sure my screen okay, here I am. You got cause I yes.

this kind of construction elections, this out our live election forecast page, uh, you see can see that trump is is up, uh fifty five forty five right now um in ninety days left so i'll see how that evolves. Um you can go here. You I think you can so this is the election market. I'm actually going to let you figure that out.

No, no, I understand here. I think you know, trumpet fifty five percent that feels under Price to me. Let's go in on IT two hundred sixty seven dollars.

So I got I have one hundred fifty and cash time ago. All in on this feels feels like a trader want to make, let's say, what happens, market closes when the outcome occurs two hours after closing, i'm ready. Do that just happen? Yeah, oh, wow, okay, wow. You get a bankrupt. Me, this is too easy.

Yeah and is right. So I think like the cool thing about this is like you can actually also sell IT before. So you click on on trump right now, you can see a position um uh or on the B I right here and then you can see a position you can actually exit IT if you want to.

So you can sell IT forty five if you want to. You should now. But uh so right now, obviously, you soit directly, I just be paying, paying the thread, paying the bit us.

But if things move, if he, if his odds go up and I don't know, a few days or tomorrow or whatever, you can sell IT at a profit. The auditing that SHE really cool, and we launched this just now, is now you have a bet on trump. You also like easily get paid interest on that bed.

So IT gets deposited in in money markets in U. S. treasury's. And you get paid four point one percent interest while sitting. They are waiting and and so cool because you should people say like hey these are kind of zero some type things like you either win or lose birds and here like whether you win or .

lose you getting paid interest um while waiting elite cell I will go deposit more of you know why um total wealth given given money market accounts. Now you recently um were involved with a long term car full le with the C F T C to get regulated trades on political dance. So we've been at this as where I think .

six years as a company. Yes.

five in a bit, five in a bit. Okay um is a totally insane thing to try as they start up to um now go up against the C F, T, C. Can you talk about that?

We all two court beliefs. I think one brick markets have the potential to be the next largest in financial markets. I do genuinely think that like you think about IT a from first principles, like people like to take exposure on things, they like to speculate.

They sometimes they want to have like or know I could be either betting or or hedging, but but IT feels like the kind instruments are bit like, you know you have things like, okay, you have stocks that's fine. We also have like options and futures. They all just so loaded.

It's like so what's really and like you do not really care um but if you think about like particular markets, what they do is like the achieve a similar similar sort of like urge or they I think they're taking a similar market but inside of like this composition boy, french translation, taking position, things you care about. Like I have a view on the weather. I have a view on climate.

I have a view on AI, which love people, have a view on them, and then you can basically take a stick in that. So I think that one, you're going to be very big. I think so.

And then, too, I have yet to see the financial market has gone really big without being properly regulated. I I have yet see that history. This is always like you have to do IT legally safe combined.

So our core approach from the stories like legal and safe and complained and trusted first, a bit like comment is how com is approach crept. And we've always like the approach. And so before we launch anything, you spent actually, you know, close to three years getting regulated in front by the safety.

Ca, so have written a lot of the regs. We actually spent in a literary fourteen and sixteen hours a day for year and a half, doing nothing else other than writing. Law and regulations for corporation markets could be regulated in the U.

S, and we got done with the C, F, T, C, and we ve got a proved. So we were the first actually market and history that actually could do portion markets and illegally in the U. S.

So that was one step one. The thing that we thought over is that after we got to prove, the one thing they didn't want us to do is the U. S.

election. There is so much time. I do not explain IT is like a part of IT isn't is congress. There's a there's a vocal minority. I an congress that just hates them. And when we can can talk about this in a bit, they believe that they are going to break democracy and this is gambling.

I obviously we saggy with that but IT was funny because um in our board at first was like, well this sounds like a horrible idea like we when one and I brought IT up to outfit from and and y OK we going to the government, a regulator and they're like we is never a good idea. Shea, bad battle, but which of the risk? And uh IT was brutal.

Uh IT was really brutal. Like going up against the federal government is is super topic because it's like the plane. The baLance of field is so tilted, the standard to win for you is so much higher than the standard to in for the government.

But we want and uh and winning felt pretty good. I think the wind was worth all the years of pain. And I think maybe this is how IT is for I think any entrepreneur journey is like you go through all the pain for so long you have to endure, and then up the higher so high that IT makes IT all worth IT.

So we won this month. And the cool thing now is like is the first time in one hundred years that uh, betting on the election, trading on the election is actually legal in the U. S. Is finally back to actually be illegal. And this time it's actually regular.

And where the only ones that can run, I think like seated a bunch of threads that we um should talk about, like what is um maybe we'll start with one that I think IT is important um what is the argument against uh trades on elections? Like what is this set of ruining democracy concern?

It's two arguments. One, there's a question like this, gambling. And the second one is, could they ruin the .

perception of election? Is .

there are reflexivity? Let me just one by one. So I think the gambling piece is super anally. I love, I love history, and I really love financial history. Like when I got into the witness, one of the big reasons, like I love. So how did we come up with all these instruments I worked at go, have ever been to a good gold strating flor.

or any anything to work golden. So, yes.

it's great. I mean, you see like this so weird, like you have like hundreds of trades sitting behind life of string things like options. And the a question I always come to mind that how do we get here like it's sane.

But the thing is interesting is most financial instruments, really, the vast majority in the early days, recalled gambling, like there was the consistent thing against IT, is a form of expectation galin. That's but bad for society. An example, I love the court when he comes to the gaming pieces, like, so in one thousand and five, and grain futures got legalized in the U. S. IT was the supreme court decision uh and Green futures now we think of IT is like the most boring like financial like you know hedging farmers like know but I time as he would call gambling, this is new asset that people like a little specking I should be allowed and the court decided like no find some expected is happening like IT does happen the sock market but does mean these market are important. And I think is the same thing is like it's crazy to mean the thing that like trip taking a stake a position in the election is the same thing as like betting on the ice road like that doesn't make any sense to uh elections are real, that people have economic consequences going out of the elections um and people may anna head IT or people may anna even the forecasts is important up for these markets exist.

Um I think actually it's like worth contextualized a little bit like why futures exist to begin. Well yeah right. You mentioned like hedging, which is um sort of complete the basic story there like going all the way back to like japan digital rix change. Like the original function of futures markets, as I understand them was like uh for farmers to hedge Price changes right you know even before one thousand nine hundred and five U S U S Green futures. And so smoothing out or allowing people who have real economic stake in something to protect themselves with the original premise, what is the difference between like gambling and and trading?

So I guess let's differently to two things. There is a stock market and the function why IT exists. And by the of people know, I mean, I don't want to make this political, but I have to make my business very political.

But like there is warns of the world, even socks, mark has a lot of speculation. We should limit in right for different ways. That will be that a horful idea.

We should not do that. But the reason is this is capital allocation, right? You're moving capital, people that having to people that need IT very simply and that makes IT worthwhile to exist.

And that's why a hatch fund exist. And that's why all these we have all street, the futures market and derivatives market where is a bit different. It's not capital allocation, is risk transfer. And I love that notion。 I love that notion so much just like it's it's even more need it's like your transfering risk from people that like have IT but cannot bear IT to people that don't have IT but can there they want to diversify. They want to buy the exact and this applies to to do yet to the example of grain features or rice features or or bog valley features that kind of really old school stuff. And and the interesting thing in these markets like farmers are a hedging, like you said, the their ability to the allows them to have more forecastles like, hey, i'm planting about now what Price to sell IT out makes the .

higher quality business to .

have to without you to watch on predictability. And what happens on predictability is you have less of these businesses. IT becomes a harder businesses.

So you get lower supply of grain. So we just actually establish that no grain futures today would have resulted in higher Prices for bread. That sounds like a horrible thing for society action.

It's good thing that we have them now that is different from gambling, right? Like grain Prices or hurricanes or break that happening or not or election trump for camilla winning. That's a risk exists already, right?

Like it's not like you and I are creating this risk that we can bet on IT. This exist already. And some people like if you run a climate company, you obviously Better off if camel.

Trump wins um if you want a crypto company Better off if trump wins and come on every real tangible binaries that you may want to ensure again um that's very different from you and I going and doing a little let's spend so that we can expect IT that that is an activity that's recreational that I don't have strong use and gambling or not, I think people should be able to do whatever they want with their money. But that's different. That does not have benefit for society that go beyond just having fun, right?

Um and so yes, I think hedging is a corpulent, but then there is actually another thing that people don't talk about is called Price basing in these markets, which is IT gives you an indication of Price, right? Like farmers without the futures market have no idea what this thing is going to sell for in the fall. The futures market actually give them an indication of what it's going to sell for.

And I think the prediction market take a step further is actually the Price equal to probably it's even cleaner. It's like who's gona win right now? I think fifty five percent, I stick out going to get banned.

I think I forgot right now. I think by me, it's like thirty five percent doesn't look like it's gonna en all like your pricing the future. And and and I think that's another really need concept because if you prize the future, then you can you're smarter, right? Like you can make Better decision about what's going to happen. Tiktok creator, now you you not whether the likely would of things are getting banned is a life life for that situation for your business.

Basically they are related. Yeah right. I mean, I have graduated from poker to informed investing.

There is speculation in all markets. That's a fact, right? And expections like you bring some money to make more money and you know you don't really control without IT, you don't get a liquid market, right? If people don't have that, they are not doing that. The market not going to have any activities possible.

And that's been a kind of rule of markets like you have to have speculation, you have to have some of the directs, you have to have some of the inform, you have to have a little bit of everything to have viable marketplace. People love to speculate. So we started different forms of speculation getting such gambling before we even could write. Most of all, don't know this.

We actually to play games like we used to do IT with rocks like and then you know people get a reward if the rock comes your side and you pay something if IT doesn't uh um and that was before we had actually like a language is always something volume because I when you can find IT to the, okay, I am placing a bed on trump or i'm placing you know on something specific, you know sure you you kind of the grass was like like this people betting on something. But I think like if you brought in a bit more to life, like we are constantly making decisions where we're risk adJusting, we're taking risks. Sometimes not taking the risk is in other form of risk.

Like like life is risky. You walk outside, you might get hit by a bus. You're taking a risk by walking outside every single day. I believe we have been condition to retaking. Humans are condition to taking you thing that I seem to talks about, your risks like your grama is Better than most scientists.

Like like a little .

thing measuring risk where unless you're talking to like A P H D or research life, extremely specialized in a very specific form of risk, asking your grammar is actually a Better rule of fun and actually doing any day analysis like covered was a fictional t like get a bunch of people, you know the mid with me a bunch of analysis like go away and is probably if you dying is lower than the boss, what if after grandma, that would be say, like, hey, wear masks, stay at home. I guess there are student sites. One, generally speaking, don't listen to scientists .

alth bage.

A it's just so easier for the data and it's so hard to actually make trit like check how .

the data and like is is the sapling is.

And even if it's produced, there are so many things that could go wrong and the incentive are off. And you have to publishing nature. We have to do also of weird things.

It's true that grandmas are surprisingly good at at at risk management. They have a very good a risk humans. We've evolved to be pretty fairly, fairly good with risk actually.

And and even current society actually rewards risk kers Better than non risk kers, right? Like you see everywhere, is IT actually done much more risky to place a bet on something you're interested in or even something that's totally garbage, like, you know, in a caso, then starting a company like I I think about these things a lot. Like I would argue, start a company is even crazier.

So how do we actually other tisa products they like, show you the one person that made three hundred thousand dollars in the slot machine? People get excited and everyone goes and does IT. And in everybody knows the arctic.

Cr, why seek that does the same thing if you think about IT like you, they show like rnd and corn base and then you have like a flog of people basically going to start company. Um now the big difference of starting a company is actually net power for society versus like playing a lot machine is not. But i'm talking more about the notion of risk like we all love taking risks is just more fun. Living a life where you're taking risks is just such a superior life than one way you not taking any right. Um so I take more risks i'm taking yeah I believe generally the .

principle I think that depends on what the profile of risk is. And I think that seem to that is that is you know fundamentally pretty conservative or technophobic in some ways. And I be like payment like I am investing in AI. My grama cannot take these risks, so so I am the short sight .

is like more the best misgave a concious is .

a fascinating business use to work at sit. You are starting this market from scratch. I think the day we are talking like there's sixteen million in on the election plus nine hundred and fifty dollars, talk a little bit about how you think about designing A A healthy market yeah .

and we just launched election, is launching a play, uh, because we just won the lawsuit yeah, the markets are seek time. They need catering, they need watering, but they grow and they grow. I think actually we're growing like I think the last two days have been like six x day over day in terms of like sign ups and in terms of uh uh uh volume.

So just six time, but it's I think it's rapping up very fast. Exchanges are monetary sy, very difficult sis to build. There are some of the hardest because you have the marketplace angle, uh, which is always hard and exchanges that you have to bring in the liquidity, and that's really hard to ramp up and takes a long time.

How do you think about retail versions like large mark makers and institutional masters?

I think of IT is more refine on a spectrum that goes from like lots of trade, small size, to less frequent trading, but big size. So I think the way that the market evolves is like because we have already quality now we target retail and we scale our quality. As we scale with retail, we scale type of customer over time, you build a initial lure of liquidity.

And we already, I think I have that I can you were like now we have this community dedicated to people that forecasts these events. They prize them. And then as the Price is different events, you know, like, will irin tomorrow, is climate change getting worse or Better cover to come come back as you Price them?

Like the mere fact of getting a Price, you can ramp up liquid, you can get more, more equity over time and you get more equity of large things that for a big instruction when I had in cyber a risk or A A new bill that may pass in congress that you hate or other. 所以 i think of progression。 That's how we think about IT elections specifically, ally, we're singing of institutional food that I just said, like a bit late in the end, take time compliance, take time to on board with a single of national floor.

There is demand for like ten million or twenty million doors. I actually there is the man, even up to one hundred million or trades. We have three weeks.

So we going to have to figure if we have enough time with our compliance departments to on board to calcio. Um but if we do, I think we'll see a hundred million or traits as I can be really cool. How do you .

think about leverage?

So so there's a few things like this is A A like a risk on product, right? Is not like a if you buy S M P doesn't move like maybe like point five percent on typical day, right that moves more like ten percent than on a typical day. So it's already pretty volatile.

Um we haven't thinking about how could we basically introduced ed margin and leverage uh into the system because when you choose leverage, there's more trading you right like one dollar can create much more trading activity um and we want to introduce more leverage over time. But um this system gets risk here a little bit of context. So we own now as of this year actually one of the like there's a handful of clearing houses in the U.

S. That can actually clear, that can move in whole dollars for trading, for trading gravy aves. Like this happened after two thousand. So when the crisis happened, dod fran came in and says, every like trading of privative has to go through central, central, central clearing houses.

And the reason for that is like you and I cannot trade with each other anymore like banks used to do, we can be counter parties because if I and what happens that is I defaulted than you defaulted, then uh, all for defaulted and uh Kelly deflated. Everybody started defaulting. All the banks defaulted, and he was bad for the entire economy.

Now it's all centralized, one place where the U. S. Government can see the risk.

And then that one place can basically like manage that risk appropriate. That's clearing houses. So we actually, as of this year, we own one of the handful.

The question is like when do we when and how do we introduce the ability for people to take positions without putting all the cash up front. But now you're using credit rate right into the system. I want to do IT.

I want to do IT with the next next I maybe twelve to eighteen months um but um we're going to have to get really smart and sort of like. Like, okay, if Sarah showed up to the exchange, like how much level should we give you? Should we let you do ten to one? Should we let you do one hundred one, let you do only two. One that becomes like that's a tough question to answer actually.

Yeah I mean, he feels like there's a lot of decisions to make there, right? Ah yeah guarantee e trades and forcing margin requirements. Exchanges and clearing houses are very complex and think about um what's a good like maybe the two thousand eight futures bubble yeah like there are versions of this that are less healthy and also like speculation is going to exist in any market and people want liquidity, right? So I think there's a really interesting problem to do.

What you let people do without finding you expose stem again, like risk is fine. We just need to figure out how to manage IT. And I think for us like this is one of those things like what the government is actually very way off on on us and playing houses to do, like we really need to be kind of really bottom up to get to get this this debt to get this done, and I think will do IT. I think we're just have a lot work to do to get there, uh, because things can go rolly wrong when they do go wrong, right? Yeah I mean, two thousand eight .

was pretty about um maybe I like just thinking about you know the the coming election and how do people think about prediction markets .

versus polling is a lot of confusion around this bowling is asking people who they're going to vote for, right? Like so so assume you can go to to, you can survey every single person in pennsylvania and then asked them, you know who you can vote for and then you count IT all up and then you get that trump is fifty one percent of people and come is four nine percent of people. Then you it's guarantee the ana, right? Like that's a guarantee.

Now obviously, posters don't work IT like that. Pulls are bias. A lot of them are bias.

You should not trust most of them. There's a few day you can trust, but assume the unbias ones like they don't. Everyone is a good time, hopefully well done. And then they tell you we think that is going to be fifty one nine to fifty one that one percent difference of bowling that trump has over camera um that's definitive, right? That's strong pointing.

That's like, you know if the poll is recently, I created that, that you know pretium markets are not doing the same thing, right? Prediction markets are just pricing the odds of traverse camera winning, right? They are for like they're just giving a probability.

We think there's you know today right now fifty five percent chance of trump is winning. That does not mean the trump is up five percent on average over a camera on the pulse nationally. That's not what IT means.

The other thing that people need to understand is that if trump polls one percent hired on gala, or vice versa, partition markets are more volatile, they're gona move more than one percent, right? There's gonna give trump a higher poverty or or to camera higher poverty based on the polling. So a people are misinterpreting the data.

And and and I think people say like, oh like trump has a ten point lead or like eight point leads uh over gala that's incorrect. That's now what the market is saying. The trump is not like trump now is more likely like it's a coin flip, but it's a bias contract vice strong to win.

You're still climbing a coin flip is slightly more likely to go heads than tails, but they could still come tails. And people are, I think, really confusing that. Um and you see IT right now, right over last week, you know the sentiment people are misinterpreting what these prediction markets are saying. I think people maybe don't understand odds that well, there's some education .

we need to do yeah well because there is pricing, not just prediction, right? yeah. I I think you you can kind of assemble this from different events on cali now.

But um I I want to make a this is just a of feature request for you. I want to make a million dollar, that is, if there is disruption in the middle east before the election, more money on truck at up to these odds. I want a conditional invention. De by the way is a political and trade ah.

I I think conditional markets are actually the next one of. So internally also, most engineers really want conditional markets, a APP we want to do them. I don't know when, but finding in the next few months when we going to do conditions because I look like I really love conditional s like, I love this idea of, like you basically saying is like, like in sequent I like, is the middle ast for a good thing for trump or a good thing for camera?

I mean, and who does IT favor? And then then you can send up to a lot of other interesting questions, right? Like if trump wins, what will happen to GDP? What will happen to inflation?

If common winds, what will happen to G, P? What will happen to inflation? And you can extend to everything, right?

If if canada x wins, what will happen to crime rates? What will happen to S M P? What will happen to trade us?

Like conditional s actually are so need because it's all right. Like, you know, markets don't lie. That's the beauty of markets, right? Like markets don't tell anyone what they want to hear.

They don't tell anyone what they wanna hear. Like markets just do their thing. And they the reason they don't lie there is money on the you can trust. One thing in this world is people like making money, and they do not like losing money. You can trust that as long as you trust that markets do a fair job at doing this right.

can ask a question that in that like like very specific context of this one market, is there a level which you'd say that coche is Better at predicting the outcome of this election, then all polling from a liquidity perspective? Ages like we're there like we're you know it's diminish scale.

Oh no, we're for me there. We're just me there is in the prediction markets. I think calling is unique even compared to other prediction markets is that it's americans and it's regulated.

So so you know that there's no like there is no weird thing going on. There is no foreign influence. There's no thing there no washing, like it's all here.

It's americans. There's regulation, oversight on top of IT like government is overseeing everything. So goshi is this unique thing and there's institutional adoption.

So it's not there's no because you ask me like do you have a cypher bias? So you have a trm by the answers? no.

Like we have large markets kers access, cohn a said and a few others are confidential. Um and so I think I should cut is a pretty accurate gage right now. Fifty five percent is what I would call fair value.

That's the correct odds of trump winning. That doesn't mean trump will win, but trump is more likely than not to win right now. So i'll give you a few examples like we have been the most active forecasts for inflation over the last two years, which is really hard to forecast IT.

We're Better than bloomer. We're Better than the economist survey watcher starting to use us instead of any other alternative. We predict the fed decisions Better than anything else. We predicted tiktok, predicted boy C E O and what was gonna en to him. We predicted the omicron wave, uh, more other than any alternative. And then you have a lot like we break the weather these days, like we can protect daily weather more actually more accurate than most weather stations um and IT.

Is there any intuition for that? Like like the rest of IT, unlike you can have more like the market has the data, right? Like the weather one. I'm like, man, I looked at weather modeling and like is a very hard problem. Like, how could that be true?

Here's why. So whether and the other one is earthquake? S actually we also Priced. We did a good job, like there is the the tsunami, the earthquake in japan.

And we kind of guja predicting like one and how the next one will hit earthly ly. Obviously sanely hard to predict. You cannot do IT.

But I I know what I say. Like the same time I made was not like we are always accurate, or were super accurate. What I made IT what the same time I made is that were more accurate than alternatives. And the reason is actually very simple. It's like.

Okay, let's earthworks or weather earthquakes you right now, the alternative is like you go to an expert and the extra makes a prediction that's and if the experts wrong, there's no impact, like no no consequence and and he is right, you know people get more followers to her people. great. When you open a market, this expert that may have an opinion, but there is also a bunch of other experts, maybe also a bunch of random, I don't know, people that read the news and are interested in earthquakes.

If you bring them all into a marketplace and you incentivize them to actually be right, what they gona do is score scale for information on the enter. Anyone that can find information and then traded into the market, bring IT into the market. Let's what markets do so well, right? Like they do what we all information aggregation or dissemination.

So you go to research and then bring into market. And then if a lot enough people do IT, you get market efficiency, you get an efficient pricing. And if it's not that someone was smarter that has information that disagrees, the market should also is incentivized to common trade against that to bring IT back to efficiency.

So that's the intuition, right? I think of IT as a vision of the crowd. But skin in the game, you combine those to you are SHE end up having its it's like a Better mechanism to forecast anything than like trusting anybody saying stuff on TV essentially. Um and that's what I works for the weather because people are intensified to be right. They want to make money.

What is the process to add a new market to health?

Take twenty four hours now. So that was actually really difficult because our first market that we ever listed us eighteen months, uh and that's what IT takes other exchange like like one, C M E wants to trade a new a grain future. S M P.

Future takes two years. We had to shrink down the tack, the regulation, the ops for that. And now we like we are we just component over time, and now we can do in twenty four hours.

So I love our team of about markets like what's trending, what what are people talking about. But fifty of our markets actually come from our users. So we have a single market builders on the side in the APP where people can just build the market and make the case.

I K, I think this should be up. And then we listed IT within twenty four hours. It's weird because if you know whether the movie is going to be good or not beforehand, now you have a forecasts whether the movie is going to be good or not before he gets released. If it's bad now the movie producers are to produce the week of box office before the reviews go out essentially. So we your blind market efficiency up front, you stop .

people's time and money. The A N, so I assume working at calls, you cannot make trades on calls. yeah. Are you allowed to, uh, describe the trades you are interested in or would make again?

I mean, so well, actually I cannot uncut I can't on any instrument other than stocks because I want a regulated exchange. K yeah which kind of socks? But oh my god, there's so many that I like.

Um I would definitely so I would definitely participate in anything that's around uh like a year long economy, like what the fed industry is going to be inflation. I love um uh all all things wrong tech. So I love actually like forecasting whether see also are onna be around for the next year or not. And we have IT for all major tech companies.

What taxi do you think is going to be out by the um end of next year?

So I don't think that way actually I think ample. I don't think like yes or no necessary think what under I think elon leaving tesla es pretty under prised or like stepping down having someone run IT uh, like IT says, you know I mean now that this year is closed on by two percent chance like one in fifty, I I I don't know you tired that yeah like if trump wissen assigns to be secretary of of in government like this is financial advice like I know this is not but this is me percent one and fifty like sounds too low like like and and that's a fifty x multiple er like that I think the other more color to person I think like to fifty percent fifty, that's one.

I think people like these are really hard to Price. People like me rise those quite a bit um and then I would also like probably do uh I would do whether I I I never thought I never understood the appeal. But now I understand IT bit Better.

It's so cool because you can do IT every day, so it's repeat the game. You can Better get Better everyday. And and I I love that that's cool.

Where does the information come from? whether? Where would you begin?

I've heard from some more users and I know there is a team that scrapes satellite data. They actually figure out how to get uh, sample light data and like you but it's not just about like what the weather going to be. It's like a bunch of atmosphere c things and then they correlated with what the weather going to be. Um so that I think that's one there are interesting things around like that you can visit, create a bunch of time series like like basically like all climate patterns, like you can model is all about modeling OK how how the climate cycle looks like and seasons and like there's different frequencies for seasons and daily flutters and also like like yearly and decade long for you and also like to the militia so you can do a lot of stuff like that. But then as that you just have to tweak and search and research and find news places where people like to make predictions and there there's .

a lot to do there the trading from recruit on of coaching leadership .

okay yeah you they ask us a lot so that there are people consistently I make a one hundred thousands month um the dude whose who forecasts and inflation the best so we have a try to have part of the state people with everybody there's the the best forecasting of the last eighteen twenty four months is a random dude from kanzas never traded in his life just like to read the news and this man just knows what the inflation is.

Is going to be like it's it's incredible yeah um but they do cool stuff like the not him but there's a tenant coordinated, for example like how late the lights are on at the B L S. With that so funny the jobs data um yeah I mean, how do you even come up with that? I don't know, but people come up with support that.

Well, this is so why I love the idea of opening the appeal of the types of risks that people can go Price in the world. And and thanks and so it's good to hang out. I'm such a note about markets and it's really quoting you.

I have done this is really I love doing the party so much for .

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