cover of episode Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

2024/10/31
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Tarek Mansour: Kalshi是美国首个受CFTC监管的预测市场交易所，允许用户对各种未来事件进行交易，包括美国大选。他详细解释了预测市场的运作方式，以及如何通过买卖合约来获利。他还强调了Kalshi获得监管批准的漫长过程，以及与CFTC就美国大选交易合法性进行的法律斗争。他认为预测市场并非赌博，而是风险转移机制，可以提供价格发现功能，并比传统民调更准确地预测未来事件。他解释了预测市场与民调的区别，以及人们对预测市场结果的误解。他还讨论了Kalshi平台的设计、杠杆作用、以及未来发展方向，例如推出条件性市场。 Sarah: 作为主持人，Sarah引导了与Tarek Mansour的对话，提出了关于预测市场伦理、监管、与传统民调的比较等问题。她参与了现场的美国大选预测交易，并表达了她对预测市场结果的看法。她还就预测市场中杠杆作用的风险、以及条件性市场的可能性提出了疑问。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, explains what Kalshi is and how it allows users to bet on future events like elections, weather, and more. Sarah makes a live election bet on the platform.
  • Kalshi is the first legal platform where users can bet on future events.
  • Users can bet on a wide range of events, from elections to weather forecasts.
  • Sarah makes a live election bet on Trump's chances.

Shownotes Transcript

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets.

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**Show Notes: **

0:00 Introduction

1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi

3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC

5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting

7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections

8:12 Gambling vs. trading 

9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets

12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking

17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 

19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses

22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets

24:59 Conditional markets

26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate

31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform