These Financial Experts Got It WRONG!
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Weathermen and investment experts, they get IT wrong. So now what I am .

so excited about this, because we live in a financial world where they are constantly telling us there are things to be nervous about, things to be scared of, things that should be worrying us. And I love that we get to be the voice of reason that helps you separate the fact from fiction and understand what true things exist out there that ought to influence your investing behavior.

So I do like I do every week on the four text of wasted time, right? And I walk around the office and still everybody's productivity talking to him, and I walked by the content space, and nick said, hey, brian, what would you say? Did you hear what goldman sax just came out and said? They said that the stock markets based google under perform for the coming next decade.

And I was like, come, are they pull in those type of things again? Because if it's not golden sex, it's vanguard. And I think vanguard's last prediction was like, expect three point eight percent every year for the next.

I was going annualize, and I like these guys I can't believe come out with I because they get a lot of headlines, they get a lot of attention, a lot of our balls, a lot of fear. And i'll even talk about the business. And a little bit later, I jump into what's on here.

what this, what wave goodbye, stock markets historic run. And they are dropping their estimates over the next decade from thirteen percent returns down to four percent returns to a golden sex is not only one is doing this back and twenty one, and we can go even further back than twenty one. But van garden, the twenty twenty one report.

This said that we expect over the next decade, U. S. Equities to perform somewhere between two point three to four point three percent annualized.

right? Well enough time has passed. Now that we can actually fact check this, we can go say, okay, was then guard, right?

What has IT looked like since they came out with this, uh, hypotheses, since they came out this prediction? And this is is what we saw in the year. I mean, following twenty twenty one, you know, we came in twenty twenty two and the S M, P.

Five hundred got hammer through the first year. In the four years of twenty two, market actually lost eighteen percent. We're going to be vanguards thinking, holy cow, we crush this right? We call this. But that only part of the story. We know that since then, since twenty, twenty two, as we came through twenty, twenty three and now in to 4， the market over the entire time here is actually up thirty percent. So so far over those few years, the annualized rate of return has been nine and a half percent since van guard came out and said, hey, we think you can have someone two thousand and four percent rate return IT just seems like maybe they didn't get a right and less. Over the next five or six years, we see rates of return somewhere around like two percent that would draw the average .

down per in room. If you just in case you're not the the visual person, this loss of eighteen percent, but then it's not like IT from the bottom of that eighteen percent. IT made thirty IT actually made thirty percent from where IT starts. Me, it's actually even bigger from that twenty, twenty two downturn.

And I think that you know, when I was talking to the team about this, a lot of what I think they're doing is career sated is Mandated towards the career of think about you and promise and then over deliver how many people get manage and and also, I think that I made the joke when I was in the tro IT. Seems like whether folks as well as investment professionals, they have to give us projections. I'm not sure why they have to give us projections.

We can, but they do IT every year. And it's always so conservative because it's exactly all those career things I was talking about is if they undergo mise, you or give you a expectation they covered either way, market goes down like I did in twenty twenty two that I see. We told you things are going to be very you need, but stay the course if you're because now it's going to a recover and then and y'll give you some projection on that site, if know, and then if even if they're wrong and we had a thirty percent right of return right after they come up with this project, nobody gets upset.

That's for over performance. So guys, I always tell people winning out, zoom out. But there are definitely some teaching things. What have we learned from just again at the last twenty years?

interesting. And we think about this van guard study that came out twenty, twenty or vanguard prediction. We said, oh, it's that's so near term that's so recent.

This is a small sample size. But if we do indeed zoo M A T look at stock market returns over the last twenty years, it's pretty fascinating. So for those of you that are listening to this, I want to describe how this change is light out.

For those you can see that is visually, it's stunning. You can look, got going all back to two thousand and four. And so okay, if I were to have started investing in this year and I invested for x number of years, that's what the Y X Y shows.

What would my annualized rate of return have been? So you can see that if you have begun investing in two thousand four and you'd ve invested over the next twenty years, your annualized rate of return would have been ten percent. If you would have started investing in two thousand and seven right before the great recession came in, but you've invested over the next ten years, over the next decade, your annualized return, al, have been seven percent. What you can see is even though the market goes up and the market goes down, and every decade we have about two downturns or so, if you can be a long term discipline investor, more often than not the markets are going up, you always describe. But brian is somebody with .

a if you are walking up a hill with the yes, in the short term, there is going to be up downs as you think about that up and down. But as you're walking to higher and higher ground, you're making money because that's the reality is, is that it's good to be an investor because you own assets, you're owning a special of you, an index investor, you're buying into this ever expanding technology revolution that we're all enjoying at the moment.

So guys, you know there's a lot of things we talk about. The key takeaway is don't listen to the noise, you know, don't let the fear mongering is always going to be going on. The sooner you tom that out and developed that tick can on your pavior and not getting distracted, the Better you will be.

enforce. There's nothing going on right now. It's causing people to be nervous. There's nothing super interesting taking place that might introduce volatile certainty. So it's right.

So and what i've done in my life is to protect myself from the behavioral stuff because we always want to make the good habits as easy as possible and the bad habits as hard. And one of the first things you can do is always be Better. If you just set up automated wealth building strategy, where your dollar cost averaging every month, taking out the emotions, you're going to be successful.

And then to close that, we'd be crazy if we'd even tell you we created a Better way to do money. The financial order of Operations really is going to help you cut the corner off of all the mistakes that you you see all of your peers doing. There is this is the way if you can follow the non step process, if you want a fast track, and I even tell you go to read million or mission, I think you'll get ahead of the curve and really know how to cut out all this noise and distractions.

That another thing that you can do, just to help make sure that you stay the course and can help you on your journey IT, makes you subscribe the channel right now. We love that. We get to put this content out to hopefully help you do money Better and make wiser decisions, even when the world around you might be trying to suggest that you shouldn't.

I don't know about you, brand. I'm still an excited investor over the next five years, ten years, fifteen years, twenty years. I'm gonna have my money working for me. And I think as a patient discipline universe for investor, i'm likely going to be .

rewarded for it's not going to be a shock to you even though my life has changed so much from the Young twenty, something that that got into this world of wonderful world of finance and my goals have changed, I still in kind of energized for the future. I mean, that is I have not been disappointed even though i've been through more and more of the crazy things that make financial investing unique. And and you look at these periods like the great recession or the dot com bubble and even twenty twenty two, even the pandemic, I mean all these things, there's always to be chaos in the world um and and even coming through election cycles and things like that. But I just tell you, if you always be buying, just keep driving through the process, you're going to be OK.

I love we love that we get to curate this content. We love that we can put IT together for you, but we also love that we can answer your questions. We can speak to the things that you are most curous about you wanted to stay in on.

So right now, we have the team out in the wings collecting your questions. So if you want us to answer to your questions, make sure you get IT in the chat right now. And with that creative director, rev, i'm gonna throw IT over to you. Yes, yes.

Keep the questions coming in the chat. I do have a great one to kick us off from iron. He says my wife cut, promoted twice and has access to the third compensation plan.

We are going to skip IT and keep using our broker account. Do you agree we are barely under forty in few steps. Seven, what do you think?

Well, in true financial advisor fashion, our answer is going to be independent. And we can't give you specific advice on whether you should or should not take a change. What I can tell you is what a third compensation plan is and how IT works.

So a lot of companies and its traditionally, uh, large companies, they'll have some sort of time at benefit in place to say, hey, instead of you getting your compensation today, stead receiving all of your compensation today, you can opt to differing some of that compensation into the future. Instead of us paying IT to you out this year, we'll pay IT to you at some future year. Maybe we going to read IT out of some number of years.

And so plan. Will allow you to defer a percentage of your salary or you a percent of your bonus and then you can choose when you want to receive this. So I don't want to get paid that money today.

I'd rather get paid that money when I retire, and I want to get pay that money spread evenly over five years. That's a way that a lot of plans often work. And so it's a fantastic planning tool for a folks that are looking for more tax, differing savings opportunities because when you put the money into the third can't plan, you don't have to pay income tax on IT.

You will pay income tax when you go to draw that money out. So it's a wonderful opportunity to be able to push that money into the future, and it's also a great opportunity to be able to build a self funded pension. You know that you make enough income right now to be able to provide for your current living expenses, but you want to build some sort bridge to get you from the time you retire until you began drawing social security or from the time that you leave the workforce until R, M, D.

start. Whatever the case may be, this is a great tool that higher income individuals can use to begin to build that bridge. But there are some things to know about when that comes to the first cop, because it's not always just a no brainer for sure. I'm going to n up and .

three quick things, boys. I the finance part is a personal component, but I want to give you some things to think about. So you actually leave watching this highlight or this question and and feel like you know some homework steps you can do to apply this in your own financial first.

How familiar you with where you are in the tax rates? Are you in this is something you shouldn't even sniff around this until you're really into that step seven of the financial water of Operation in your saving well beyond twenty five percent of your growth income. This is not entry level.

You're not doing this instead of a rough right. You're not doing this before you fund um the max zing out and four one k at work. This is definite higher level steps, seven of the financial order Operations you need to be very familiar with where you are with your marginal tax rates. Take both your federal take your state tax rates.

And are you in those higher tax brackets? And are you in the higher tax state where you like? Man IT would not be nice if I could create moon arbitrage situation where, well, in this huge tax income situation because of all my own income, in your wife's good in promotions and say, I bet when we retire, I said we go fAllen to much lower tax rate situations, so we just won't have all of our own income coming in.

Why not play off for that arbitration? That's what defer compile, as you do, is you can specially push some of this high, this income that where it's coming in and surplus push IT out to a future time where you're hopefully going to be in a lower tax situation. Now here's the catch.

What's the caviar here? What's the fine print? Um you gotta know how strong the company is because realize part of deterred compass is you are saying, I am old, this money, I am earned this money, this is money that i'm entitled to, but so that I can not pay income taxes.

I'm not let the company keep this, this, this income that are entitled to and it's going to sit on their baLance. She's an obligation to me. And the risk with that is, is if they got in trouble and thought bankrupcy, you would be a creditor, you you know you had money that was sure is going to come into your bank account.

That now is questionable because your company has got ten into financial trouble. And we've seen even big household names can very quickly fall into financial trouble. And you like, wow, sad.

I thought that company was buller proof. And then you find out, no, they have a lot of struggles. They have a lot of problems with keeping up with innovation and other things.

So ask yourself, how strong is this company? Because you are you're basically turning money that should be in the bank into a promise from the companies of they're not a good financial standing. You could have problems. So everything and balloted this, what is your retirement bridge? A lot of people will will in a retirement, say in the early fifties, especially if you're in the technology field or something like that.

Well you you're too Young to get access to four one k you Young which is know fifty five if you're still working, it's fitting on a half on your r and like why I need some type of money coming in to kind of bridge that period time. As I said, part of steps seven of the financial of Operations is nothing wrong with looking at the fred cop is being part of that bridge program to give you kind of like it's a little cash flow pension for a period time where the money is going come in. Um it's kind of a cool process.

And I even have clients because a lot of times i've had um clients that so I don't know when I want our time having too much fun right now. This does let you essentially in five year equipments kick IT out, kick IT out. Meaning that if you worked five years for this company in your like that mean the money he goes to just start shot. No, you let you kick IT to the end to the next. So IT does give you flexibility on the planning to to keep building your bridge.

Love IT fantastic.

I was going to.

I have but these plans are fairly complicated. They're not structure the get some ability and flexibility like we see you before like with the whole kicked thing. Yeah okay, you can defer. But if you're going to defer what you cannot do, you cannot receive distributions anytime sooner than five years when you originally said you are going to receive distributions.

So a lot of when you participate the first come plan, you need to have a really good plan in place because some of the elections that you make on the day that you differ going have a long tail in terms of impact. So this is of those facing a desert cup and trying to make that that decision of doesn't make sense on how do I structure? Well, this is what this time I might really makes sense to take the relation to the next level.

Because we've seen up before, folks. We ve got so excited about the third cop, like i'm going to I am going to do IT and they just defaulted to log sum retirement. But what IT up happening was, as in the year that they were tired, they got like a large seven figure payouts got crushed in taxes, all because they weren't thinking, you are the distribution strategy, just they about saving taxes in the years that they are deferring. So they are complicated and they are new lost. So if you're trying to navigate that, we would love to potentially be the team to help you figure out how do I work through making the different .

complex actions? Well, see, i'm glad to judge you that was great advice. And that's what puts the personal and personal finance and actually adds value.

This is where I tell you, you don't have to look for the need for a financial visor. If you do this long enough, your life will get complicated and you'll say, yeah, I can see how I I probably need to go tired. So most done this before.

If you wanted talk someone who's done this before, make sure to go to money guy out, calm and click on, become a client. You can just learn more about IT and just check IT out there, whoever interested, right?

You got to hear both of the four minutes was .

the second one. Is everything going okay over? Because when I see the technical people pointing at things on the screen after the earlier start, what happened .

the chat wants to was a nal. I don't be I mean, I think.

okay, somebody I want to say who is going on on the I was just like a connection youtube thing is the best way I can say that .

I connection youtube thing. That's what I heard. Origins here was the second four minutes as good as the first four minutes.

right?

So I don't think the time I got reset completely did IT O K. O, K, good, great.

I want to .

give some more questions.

Of course.

I took .

you new number three.

I annoy people that like have you like negative forecasts? Projections like why? Like why why project that I may I know why, but h you you make four party .

about if you came out with a projection like this and in of yahoo finance, investigated cnbc and all them are running headlines with your brand and they are bringing on your analysts to talk about that work, you know, because I gave the media what they want. IT was just kind of a negative leaning connotation thing and got our brand out there like do more .

than I .

think I see how this is I remember when I heard a publicist for the book. You remember this to ruby. The question was what your embers say this wrong so you clean me up, mom what your counter um what makes you kind of counter the or when? What's going to stick.

how .

culture .

and.

Up with an edge just so it's more marketable. I want to actually just tell people how I think money works. And I think that heard, but i'm willing to be honest and and say this is why don't we don't scream at people we don't do things. We don't say .

this giving .

up something, but just being transparent .

and honest.

I really do believe that we can do some things that would settle this thing up in a product, accelerate the process. I'm like you talking about stash good negations.

Reading .

millionaire mission reviews did only to go to youtube and type .

a mash on .

comments to read the you grow facial fifty.

fifty. Man, so this muscle that .

in the last was pretty fifty, fifty. If you, if that's any indication.

where are you supporting here?

I'm not. Hey.

you put me on the conflict venture because your husband has facial hair?

No, I said live on the air. I thought we .

should have a flash me and then .

I felt a little bad. But here we are. okay. We do have some good questions coming up. Keep trying to bring expect. We do have a good one from millions a here he is.

I'm start .

from Melissa.

Yes, he says we're forty six and forty one years old and married. Currently working on step four of the financial order Operations are current mortgage seven point six two percent and we plan on refinancing should we worry more about investing or paying off the house once .

we finish step for um we're planning on rei wanted a more is planning on refinancing because that, that just adds in like unique variable. So but even less assume that finances is not something they're even thinking about even at seven point six two.

One of the questions I have a less is that forty six and forty one, if you're on step four, does that mean that you're like on the beginning phase of your financial journey, you've been working through the financial interOperate and you're just now getting the step for and you have IT like really been building up or saving and are investing for the future thus far outside of just doing your employer match? If that's the case, I would argue forty six and forty one, you're still Young, right? Like you still have time on your side, but it's different than someone is in their twenty years and thirties.

You likely have to make up some ground if you have not been saving, if you've not been building up a part of assets that one day can hope, hopefully provide for you and build and and create a financial independent living for you. So if that's your story, in my opinion, I think you really got to be focused on how can I save and invest and grow and save and invest and grow and saving, investing grow because there are likely going to be opportunities for you if interest strates continue to fall here. Seven point six right now.

What was the start? You said this more that yeah, I D, I D S. I wouldn't take refinancing off the table is because i've read an article last week that we actually for a brief pretty time now you know how all markets are.

They bob up and down a little bit so you get some variability and IT. But we went below six percent for for a week or two on mortgage rates. So if you think about you know you're seven point six two, the potential that you can drop IT below six with a refinance.

This is I I don't like people thinking that paying off your mortgage is a step three item. It's not because I mean, we've had more periods where, yes, rates are not going back to two and a half percent, but I also think they're going below six percent, you know, very easily. And you're at some point millis, you're going to need an army of dollars.

So you don't want to work so much with your back. You're braining your hands. So we've got to get the ross built up, but I get the four one case built up because that is your army of dollars.

I don't want you getting to retirement age and not having any investment assets. You can be debt free, which you you can eat the house. I mean, this is just one of those things that doesn't pay the bills.

So we have to get the army of dollar bills. So that's what for me. I think that when you go from step four, which is emergency reserves, you go go immediately to step five, and you will get the health savings count, the triple tax of venture. You look at the roof R A. Then step six is going to be looking at maxing out the retirement. And in the middle of this, you are if if you pay attention in rates of drop and we got a show coming out on how to deal with debt, um they'll be coming out in the next month because I was reviewing some show notes this morning. And this is one of the things we cover and we've have a refinance tool out there on the website right now um that .

I would .

encourage people IT is out there right now, right? Money, money. I just .

see I can see her.

but IT is other things. I want you to go out there and use the tools we put for you, but you can need to have dull functions going on is how do you get the mortgage paid down, but with a Better rate, and then also make sure you're building assets in the background.

I play the other side of the coin. That was one option that you had not started building your assets. Let's say perhaps this is something different.

Maybe you have been doing all of the stuff that you're supose do. You haven't building up an army ballet bills and you a pretty healthy asset base underneath you now. But something happened. You had some sort of emergency and you had to dip into step four to go to that. Now you're rebuilding step for well, if that's the case and you're at age forty six, you are at that unique stage where if you have been doing all the stuff you're supposed to be doing in your assets are built to a level to wear, you're on the projector to be able to reach financial dependence.

I think what you have to then define is what is my number? What is the thing that i'm working towards and have the steps that i've been taking thus far moving me in the path to to that in the goal to the finish line? If that's the case, then you've done the financial of Operations.

And once you finish step for, you can be able to just zoom right through step five, step six and in the step then you have one of your goals as being debt free. And you want to prioritize paying off that mortgage as you get into step eight and get in a step nine. There's nothing wrong with that, but you had to make sure that your financial foundation is sold enough that IT makes sense for you to do that. That's going to pain very much on what you've been doing thus far in your financial journey. The money guy show is hosted .

by brian present. A bound wealth management is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the securities and exchange commission in accordance and compliance with the securities laws and regulations abound, wealth management does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the money GUI show. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.