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cover of episode These Financial Experts Got It WRONG!

These Financial Experts Got It WRONG!

2024/11/11
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Experts often make long-term stock market predictions, but their accuracy is questionable. Vanguard's 2021 prediction of low returns was followed by a period of higher-than-predicted returns. This highlights the difficulty of forecasting market performance and the tendency for conservative projections.
  • Vanguard's 2021 prediction of 2.3% to 4.3% annualized returns was inaccurate, with actual returns reaching 9.5% over the following years.
  • Financial projections are often conservative due to career incentives for analysts.

Shownotes Transcript

Investopedia recently published a report stating they expect the average annual return over the next decade to shrink. It sure sounds a lot like what Vanguard said at the end of 2021. But were they right?

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