cover of episode HIGHLIGHTS: Jens Stoltenberg

HIGHLIGHTS: Jens Stoltenberg

2024/10/18
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In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

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我最近结束了在北约担任秘书长的十年任期,在此期间,世界变得更加危险,但北约也变得更强大,以保护近十亿人口。从安全角度来看,我们正经历着全面的欧洲战争、冲突升级以及主要大国(美国、中国)之间的竞争,这使得世界变得更加不可预测和危险。 结束乌克兰战争的最快方式是让乌克兰战败,但这不会带来和平,只会导致乌克兰被占领。要实现和平,需要说服普京他无法在战场上获胜,从而促使他谈判达成一项解决方案,让乌克兰仍然是一个主权民主国家。 世界上的独裁者之间联系越来越紧密,西方世界需要团结起来应对。俄罗斯与朝鲜、伊朗和中国等国合作,对乌克兰战争产生影响,这使得全球合作变得更加重要。 我认为,如果方式得当,欧盟在国防政策中发挥更大作用是好事,这将加强欧洲防务,并最终加强北约。太空军事化日益严重,太空对地球上的事件影响越来越大,这其中也包括中俄两国正在发展可用于进攻性武器的太空能力。 人工智能将从根本上改变战争的性质,如同工业革命一样。人工智能已经开始改变战争的性质,其影响才刚刚开始显现。 在危机时期,保持冷静并确保睡眠非常重要。在危机时期,我会压制自己的情绪。领导人虽然孤独,但并非完全孤立无援。 与强势领导人达成共识的关键在于认真对待他们的担忧,即使存在分歧。与特朗普总统合作的关键在于关注双方都同意的核心问题,例如增加国防开支。与强势领导人打交道,要认真对待他们的担忧,专注于共同点。

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Hi everybody, welcome to this highlight episode of the podcast in good company. What we have decided to do is for people who are really in a hurry, we're going to clip down the epo de to just be ten minutes long. But probably what you'll see when you heard ten minutes, you are going to want to hear the whole thing. Now what we do wednesday free episode, friday the short. Hi everyone, i'm thrilled to be here with the install ton burg who just finished off uh, as a secret general in nature and before nature he was the prime minister away so i'm having here you know a book which um you wrote which came out eight years ago, which basically covered the period until ten years ago and it's got a beautiful picture of you on the on on the frontier but just what are them one of the most important changes in the world since that became out?

The most important changes, at least related to, uh, my task, my responsibility, senator, is that a the world has become more dangerous. Uh, the good, that's the bad news. The good news is that nato has become stronger to protect close to one billion people.

嗯, of course, that many old changes. But but but seen from a security perspective, we have now a full scale war in europe. Uh, we have new very devastating conflict in in the middle is o escalation. And we have a significant to Moore uh global rivalry between great powers the united states, china um and then we have hybrid hybrid terrorists as a kind of security. So so fundamentally we live in a more unpredictable, more of a dangerous world and we done for decades if we cover .

some of these points air. So how do you think the ukraine an situation will end?

What's the most like awards are by nature extremely unpredictable, unpredictable. So therefore I will be very careful predicting how that will end. Um um of course we all want this war to end. The chAllenge is that a the quickest way to end the war is to lose the war um but that will not lead to peace that will lead to occupation of uh ukraine and ukraine will not be a sovereign pendent democratic nation in european and all that will be a country controlled by a moscow so if you want the war to end in a way where millions of ukraine, and still I live in the free democratic society, then we need to convince press and put in that he will not a win on the battle fy that he has to sit down and negotiate. Agree, uh a solution where UK ine uh can still be a sovereign h democratic c nation.

The fact that there are stronger and stronger links between the autocrats in the world, one of the one of the implications for .

the western world that we have to be a together when we see that the authority s are more and more aligned. And then of course that's partly we meaning partly na thirty two nations on uh, south atlantic, but also with other countries which at least don't be don't want to be part of kind of authentic alliance. And again, ukraine is to perhaps the and then clear example um a russia is responsible for world ogan.

The main providers of weapons are and and enable of that war is north korea, iran and china uh and and and this is not retried. This is this is this is real h and makes a difference on the battle field, and also also see how russia and china are exercise together, and also on japan, uh, uh, annual, the parts of the world. So so this is really a global picture that makes IT even more important, of course, need to altogether, but to work with partners all around the world, south japan and any other countries.

There are also some voices that want the eu. To play a more important part in defense policy. What is your view .

that my view is that if it's done in the right way is very good, if it's done the wrong way, it's very bad. So the that you should do more and and they have started to step up, uh h when he comes to, for instance, strengthen the defense industry, meaning uh over common the fragmentation, the european defense h industry um to increase defense spending and to and to general the strengthened european uh defences, meaning that that that also strengthen.

Nato, good space? No.

curious.

Well, the world is so complex, right? What's going on in space from my welfare point of view? So first.

I think what do you see is that this is more and more uh, weapons sation of space and and what happens in space, a space matters more and more for h what going on on the earth. Uh as obvious for communications, G P S uh um but uh a cyber uh and and of course targeting a lot of military Operations in ukraine or depend on uh satellites in in in space and and any future conflict space uh will be important. Uh what you also can see is that again, rush on china are developing capabilities that can actually be used as offense weapons um and this is a dangers um uh development in a .

way a bit related to that A I um what are the issues surrounding that's when he comes to warfare, some people uh, in america, I say that we should build A I into everything we do, into all the weapons, all the cars. Is everything right to beat the chinese in this kind of fight? What how do you see A I impact .

on what I think what is obvious that the A I has and will even more so in the future change nature of warfare um perhaps as fundamental as industrial revolution.

Did I think we see something similar now? Uh uh fundamental shift where we are not fully understand but but but autonomists systems uh facial recognition um drones um um uh cyber uh attacks um by using also A I uh is has the potential change in warf so much that it's very hard to full the uh understand uh as uh the full implications we have see as we have already seen IT on the battlefield in uh ukraine。 And uh it's not to seek that some of the Jones and the surveilLance systems that net Operates also uses A I to process information. So this is this is only started, but we are only seen the beginning of a fundamental change of the natural of.

You run this country um during the july attack, the the terror attacks that we had. And do you know through the ukraine situation in to one of them, how does anyone lead during these dramatic situations was the key to story ism. It's to remain .

calm in a way, and to and to make sure that to sleep, because IT is important to be able to function. So i've seen some people in crisis exhAusting myself too early.

How do you work with feelings?

I am a bit strange there because when the crisis are acute, I, I, I suppress them. I just keep them away. And and in one way, I think that helps me dealing with feelings .

is IT lonely.

I is lonely, but but perhaps less lonely that that people believe if there's ending, i'm going good, that allow people to help me.

Talking about people just how you and matter you have been dealing with um you know people who I perceived to have you know large uh, eagles. I guess what's the key to region consensus with them and getting to agreement?

No, I think it's about taking their concerns seriously um um uh and to and to even if we disagree on many issues, we may they may also actually also have relevant points and the and concerns.

And without being too specific, of course they're been a lot of attention of how did we manage four years trump in the White house um and and and it's no no secret that I disagree with him on trade and or abortion or or climate change or but but in one way what I but that that was not core issues furniture so what I focused on was what matters, furniture, an action on those issues. We were had A, A, A large degree of agreement. His main message was that european allies had to invest more in events.

He convey that message in the way, which will also be so not as different than than many other political leaders. But but the court, that message or something was absolutely same as present obama had done before him or person biden does now. Uh, and I took that concern seriously, and I think that helped the same with with present other.

And people ask me how how does that work? Well, he has expressed ious concerns about the fact that no of the country, a nato country, has suffered more test attacks than a than than turkey. So take that seriously, I think focus on the issues. A, uh, that's the best way of A A addressing strong political leaders.