Keep Buying the Rally? 11/13/24
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C N B C exclusive home depo C E O ted decker on the home improvement industry, the state of the economy and consumer spending trends stay ahead of the market street box tomorrow six A M E R C N B C.

i'm scot opener and you're listening to c nbc halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day we record this live weekdays at twelve eastern listen in welcome to a half time report i'm Scott the front and center this out of the post election rally what happens now we will ask the investment committee what they're buying and selling at record hires joining me for the hour jot nova shands, katia gym lab and felt were all post nine.

Check the markets here. We do have a decent day up for the double s and peace trying to get something going in the nas deck is on the flat line. Two CPI joe in line.

A many saying that keeps the rate cut for december in play. A because IT wasn't in harder than maybe some had feared. B you do have the major averages A N up a bunch since the election in barkly today says, yeah, there's strong fundamental footing, but the melt up might be too fast. Is that the case or or no.

we are going to learn if the melt up is too fast in january. Momentum is absolutely controlled. This market momentum is the factor.

Now you could make the argument that the market is overvalued. You could make the argument that we aren't appreciating too quickly. But as we move towards the end of the year, what is clear is that Prices dictating everything.

I mean, just look across the entire landscape. The recovery that we're witnessing, we're all going to be on bitcoin hundred thousand watch. Congratulations to all of you that are invested.

I missed that one. But going beyond that, the broadening out is happening. You seeing the strengthened financials and you're seeing areas of the market that have not performed for years.

Scot, the hybrid a names, the hyper growth names that are now finally working once again. And what are they being fuelled by? They are being fuelled by that pure factor of momentum.

Um too much, too fast, totally justified and more to come. How do how do you think this plays out from here, right? A question that the very top is, is should you continue to buy into this post election rally? And many would suggest there are many reasons to continue to do that. What about you?

I think that depends on where you are positioning is if you came into the election and over the course of the third quarter, you had started to pair back some of your equity allocations in from the perspective that you elections always create uncertainty and perhaps that you weren't going to get this typical post election bump because again, I was hardly a typical U. S. Presidential election year, especially scots' ce.

We had such strong gains in the first hf of the year. So if you've pared some of your uh your equity exposure back in the third quarter and you're coming into this scenario now, I wouldn't be surprised to see people adding. The other thing is, is that there's a lot of positioning happening here.

If you think about what perhaps performed well in, in the first half of the year, then we had a little bit reversal of some of those trends in the third quarter, september and october. People were trying to find that direction into joes point. IT doesn't seem that you have to be all that discerning.

Now you really just want to make sure that you have exposure going into year and you're are looking at the names that you think perhaps from evaluation perspective look a little bit more attractive. But most importantly, I think we're understating or undervaluing the stronger economic data that we've been getting. And that really is going to support the wring out. It's going to spurt earnings outside of those max seven names. It's going to justify not just browsing out, Scott, but really of this thrust into equity exposure is not just based on policy, but it's based on the economy and where we're .

going to fit. Perfect a work, obviously, since election day, but not everything and by not everything, I don't mean things like stay pools or utilities. I mean things like microsoft, for example, which is up, but only up two percent, yes, since the elections. So that looks weak relative to some of the other gains that we've seen. I bring that up because you trim IT, which I thought was a pretty interesting move.

Why do you do that? Well, it's just clearly not the letter right now. And i'll extend that to say that the mag seven in general is not the leader right now.

You can look at apple as as as another name in that space. But I also want to say that the seven should no longer be looked at as a monolithic moves together. There are different forces.

There are different business models in there. But just go back to microsoft specifically. I think at this point in time, everything that we think we're gonna about A I has to be Priced in.

This is a good you year and a half two years since ChatGPT really hit hit the ground running. I'm sorry, about a year. Look over year, you know low thirties multiple, I think it's all Priced in.

And i'm not selling the name entirely because I think is the market goes up. Something like which is a huge part of the overall market is gonna benefit from pass of flows. But there are other areas of the markets that are working really well right now. And shame you eluted the broadening of the market. Think about industrials, think about financials, think about things that haven't worked as well, but probably will.

And i'll put health care in that cat. You said that they're not going to be viewed as a monos anymore, but you you spoke of them as the monolithic. You say, well, a is all Priced because you can think that maybe it's Priced in for microsoft, but there are many suggestions that it's not Priced in even to in video OK, which reports next week, right? So you get up in both ways. If it's not going to trade like a month, refer to everything as a mono list in terms of what's Price in and what's not because there are there are standout ones that are still suggested to be that. And then once that were, in fact, maybe some of IT is Priced.

yeah. So let me be clear, I don't think they're monos both in terms of different businesses. okay. So that for instance, netflix is not the same businesses. Microsoft, but your point I think is excEllently made.

The one of the mac seven, no. Is that why do you pick netlik?

Okay, you want to pick text?

I'd like .

to pick one to talk .

apples and apples don't need two hundred.

Let's like.

let's talk apples and apples.

kay, let's talk apples and apples. I will grant you. I think in video is fairly Prices here, and i'm not timing in video.

I will also tell you i'm not trimming alphabet right here. Another A I name because I think that the valuation is absolutely under Price. And I think that's a name you can add to here.

So if you want to stay within the A, I space, absolutely, there are names that I think are not going to move symbolically with each other. I think microsoft and we've already seen IT, right? We've already seen look at the video of versus microsoft. They're not trading the same and they're not going to trade the same. They get an oracle VS versus microsoft.

They is on through the end of the year. The one name I love about the mac seven that will outperform a record .

high day day, by the way, for you're seeing .

a rebuilding of positioning and momentum again as a factor there is being applied very strong.

Let me just tell you to you, outside of these names, there are a bunch of tech etf that are hitting new record highs that we don't really mention um ever. I have to tell you, I mean, we talk about a lot of the stocks when in IT, but not the specific tf that are new record highs that the sk, yy. It's the first trust, first trust cloud computing etf.

Seven straight days up. It's up thirteen percent in a month. It's a new record high today. That's cloud, a flair, that's MongoDB, that's confluent, that's pure storage. We're just having a conversation here about microsoft and an oracle. Um we need to pay attention to names outside of the traditional ones that we always talk about. Yes, we yeah.

I think I think this is a Scott. This is animal spirits. This is small and medium sized business enthusiasm. This is capital expenditure and technology outsides.

For two seconds, I want to go to Emily wilkins with breaking news on capital hill. Emily.

he's gott. Well, at this point.

we do know who the next leader for the senate will be. IT is john thone. He was just voted in by republican senators to that role. He will then succeed, which mcconnell, of course, we knew going into this zone, was kind of considered a front runner in this.

But there was, of course, rick Scott, someone who has a little more support from trump or who we saw elon musto eet out as his particular choice. But we've now seeing the senators respond. I mean, in the very first round, rick scot, the fewest number of votes, and then john phone and john corning went, had to head and thin, just emerge slightly Victorious that from twenty nine to twenty four votes.

And of course, I think this is going to set the senate on path where IT will continue to be check and baLance to the White house. Certainly a lot of senators, they're very motivated by trumps resulting win. They do see that as a Mandate.

But by picking phone someone who has been in leadership before, who's considered perhaps a little more of a mainstreet mainline republican, they have certainly set themselves on a direction where they're not just going to be taking everything that trump says and doing IT immediately. Ah there is probably going to be a bit more of of a check and baLance here. But of course, we'll be watching the senate very closely. They've got some big debates coming up and make you sure there are voting a government shut down next week dealing with the fiscal Cliff that will start at the beginning of january. And of course, we will be following all .

of that very closely. Idea, Emily and I I don't think you ve said this. If you did, forgive me how close the vote was as the other names were in the mix as well.

yes. So we started off with a john thon, john corny, rick Scott on the first ballot, rick Scott of the fewest number of votes. And so he was dropped from the ballot.

And then you can see here that second ballot between john soon and john corny, who got twenty nine boats, corning got twenty four. We should also know that john corny was also seen as a little bit of an establishment pic h. He is not currently in leadership, but he was he was sent IT with and he was actually sent IT WIP during trumps first terms of that number two spot.

So both of them were seen as a little bit more establish. Both of them have budgeted heads with trump in the past, but both of them now say that they have a very good relationship with trump at the incoming president and that they are willing to, of course, work with him on various things that trump s has wanted to see, including those results. Pointless I zone in corne.

They they express an openness to IT. I think at this point, they just want to make sure that trump is going to have an easy time getting his nominees confirmed. But that sounds like they also do want to make sure there is some check and baLance with the senate and overseen those nominees.

Appreciate that, Emily. Thank you for the update that Emily Walkers down on capital hill forest will continue to follow that developing story throughout the rest of the day, of course. But back to our conversation change.

Forgive me for interrupting ting you the idea that there are a lot of other text talks that are outside of the max 7 universe that are are hitting record。 Zed, I just want to reera. It's the S K Y Y.

We're for focusing on the first trust cloud computing. It's the software and services etf, the X S W. It's the first trust azz cyber security to C I B R skip in an iron. These are all hitting record eyes today.

Well, as I was mentioning, I think this is about capital expenditure sky outside of direct A I spending this perception. We saw a lot of pressure on software earlier this year because the perception was is that companies would have to take their tech budget and they would have to capabilities spending on other types of software in order to promote their A I spending.

And what you're seeing now, if you're not only seeing that pie perhaps grow based on enthusiasm around continued growth next year, but you're seeing that small and medium size enterprise, they're getting some confidence here in terms of the environment for them in two thousand and twenty five. And so you're seeing this renewed enthusiasm that again, that pie might be bigger not just for larger companies but also for some small and medium enterprises to be able to. That's on the a eye side, will also in their kind .

of software budget. Joe, I mean, got like palo alto, you got partier apple love in. Yes, these are all the apple lovers.

Up seventy five percent since the election, which is in the t four tints up twenty eight. Dok signs up fifteen, but there are a lot that are filling out the T F. That I mentioned that have just outsized gains since election day.

Absolutely they are. And it's I wonder it's coming at the expense of capital coming out of the semiconductors. You look at the semiconductors today and you will see kl a corp.

Down three percent. Lam research, down three percent, monolithic power, down five percent, micro on three percent, on down three percent. So I think money is flowing out of the semis into the software names.

And it's really not just large and mid caps software. You could trade down into some of the hyper growth names if we could pull up a chart of a name we probably haven't talked about several years. How about zoom video? Look at the positive momentum.

Zoom video that stockers were covered from where I was in fifty, its trading eighty five, forty eight today. Other names like dog, you sign working well. So some names that we were talking about several years ago in the software space, they're coming back once again, there's another name.

It's a north. It's less. It's a wise of hope name.

It's an emerging software name. Bill holdings pulled up bill holdings B. I, L, L. And you'll see the .

powerful force of momentum. You bought tWilly. O, I is a newby for you, and old name for you by a newby. I don't know any out of this name. No.

so many, so many even think over the last right now.

right now, again, fifty two week high day, it's up twenty two percent .

months to date. This stock, again, I am i'm going to acknowledge that more than anything else, Prices dictating where people are investing right now towards the end of the year. And you could have a problem with that. That's fine.

And that might be the wrong approach when we turn the calendar twenty five, but that's what's going on so far here you date so tWilly o reports, they really didn't need very much they yet that all they had to do was exceed low expectations. You're talking about a company that was growing for five percent over the last several quarters, and that company eighteen months ago, twenty four months ago was growing twenty plus percent. Revenue growth comes out close to ten percent.

Got people excited once again, analyst community comes in. They upgrade the stock, raised the Price targets. I initially bought some ninety five calls in the name that expire at the end of december, sold those out of the profit earlier this morning, rolled IT into the equity now equity.

and i'll stay with that name, Jimmy adobe oracle. We already went through the big ones, alphabet, microsoft, that you have to just wrap this this tech conversation up force before I move on to the other areas that have done quite well since the election.

I think any sector that we look at, you can find winners and losers. And sometimes it's an obvious winner like oracle, which has gone through the roof for quite some time. I think adobe is quite interesting here.

It's had a rough twelve months. No question about IT. A lot of that has to do with the last earnings report, which gave a lot of question as to the fourth quarter.

I think a lot of that fourth quarter was brought brought into the third quarter and will also be filling out the first quarter of twenty five. My point on this is sometimes you want to look at a legend like a dobe and say, that's where I want to go. And if you look at a doby over the last month that had a very strong bid, I think that is just beginning.

So the leader since the election, directionality, is actually number one, which anything is going to surprise anybody when you factor in the waiting of of a tesla and an amazon, especially tesla, which is just gone, just absolutely parabolic since since the election of financials. The number two and gm u reference this earlier on this idea of continuing to buy in to this post election rally or or take a bit of a break. There's obviously a lot of optimism around fewer regulations discovers up seventeen percent since the election, synchrony up huge, golders up big as this mortgage standing capital on these are all up low to mid double digit percentage points since election. They do I continue to buy these stocks?

yes. Now I think I know you well enough, Scott, that I detected a tone of trees don't grow to the sky.

ok? You do not that it's .

it's my inner dialogue that is saying, and it's appropriate to say trees don't grow to the sky. However, looking at my friend joe here, who is an a known momentum identifier, and I think we can say that this space, the financials has a lot of momentum when you combine that with the fundamentals, which are extraordinary ily strong right now, whether it's valuation, whether it's deal flow, it's likely to pick up, whether it's credit quality, which is probably the most important thing when you think, let me finish. I see you when you think about some things that .

I give me something that I was going to take language a little bit, I was going say, well, the trees, what the trees have been pruned too much over the last four years and now they have chance to grow again. So it's not like they're growing from a very high base to the sky if they were pruned back and perhaps a little too much now they have a chance at this regrowth. I trying to put in terms that you would sort of a identify with the reasons for I love you.

I love you going. I watered with .

plenty of plenty water and there is a lot more growth .

to come because these valuations look at jp morning is a crap doc cram. We're never going to talk about IT being undervalue. It's not, but it's the leader in the space. Of course, it's gna perform when you look at a lot of other names like a city group, of course, which I love, or a bank of amErica wells. And you look at these valuations particularly, and I am beating you with this gut, you know, you look at cities Price to book value, and you say there is reason for IT to a create to par on books valley.

Je fraser was giving an interview in which he said he was, quote, game on SHE, of course, the city CEO. And he mentioned that he talked about a lot of pent up demand, as others are talking about as well. So do cha bank today raises their Price targets all across their coverage, talking about how much these things can grow.

Your city group is seventy books from sixty five. Goldman, five, seventy five from five hundred. Jp, m, two, forty from two thirty five. Morgan, standing, one, twenty five from one o five bank of amErica and fifty from forty five. What you think I think understanding .

that the corporate tax rate is going to be anchored at twenty one really helps the sector tremendously and IT helps more than anything else. When we talk about animal spirits, we're not talking about animal spirits within the equity market itself, but the animals .

is what we happened.

But what I mean is because looking forward now, you have the potential in the sea suite to see some animal spirits as IT relates to corporate acclivity. So look, Jimmy, you mention momentum of the joking etf has had a significant overweg to financials for the Better part this year. And what the reasons why was because we were seeing that the inversion was coming out of the market, by the way, we're only down to a three months.

First is a ten year as IT relates to inversion, and we're inside ten basis points right now. So we're going to ultimately see the entire curve has lost the inversion ent that's beneficial. Now you get this catalyst that comes from a republican majority, that's going to introduce a less stringent regulatory environment, good to anchor the corporate tax rate. And the argument that the financial sector is overvalued are not so sure that applies the same as I can apply in other areas.

Market shane mike male, the well known analyst at wealth fargo securities, causes us a water shed inflection moment. A transition from fifteen years of harsher regulation to more emphasis is on economics greater than politics and more predictable oversight. You're going to be less regulation risk and he favorite city bank of amErica and jpm. Is that, in fact, a water shed inflection moment for these stocks despite the fact that they have gone up a lot.

I think that the compounding of the regulation that we've seen over the years has significantly uh, detracted from confidence for smaller and maoist ze businesses in particular. And it's important because show me in an interesting point, this isn't about similar to the first term for trump where we saw the lowering of the corporate tax rate. That's really a one time benefit.

What the banks are actually gonna enter IT from, again, less regulation for banks themselves, Scott, in terms of puzzle three and game, which may just be thrown out the window entirely. But again, there's a river effect here in terms of regulation that actually is much more a creative for the emini activity and the long growth for these banks that I think has as a much longer tail than just cutting the corporate tax rate did. In truth, first.

there's some talking about, you know, obviously, winners and capital markets, arley says an interesting note, joe, today i'm you're looking at the private equity players like a pollo which you own K K R the um the retail brokers interactive, what you own um the coin basis of of the world they call the clearest winners you own. All three of those .

kind basis been remarkable international. I made its staging. But listen, it's car related to bitcoin. So I said before I missed the point bitcoin move, we do have coin in the etf.

Interactive brokers is just benefit IT over the last several years from a very favorable trading environment. Management has really stewarded that, that entity very well as IT released the baLance. I think trading is going to be something that we're going to be talking about in january for a lot of the investment banks. What did the trading revenue look like in this quarter? And I think for for all of us, collectively, you would have to assume it's going to be a very strong .

trading revenue quarter. An another interesting move from from you are in context of the overall market and what hasn't work in not being health care. So you saw the m gen, and you bought the x bi.

Now health care has not worked something that biotech oversold. Like jeff to graph at a site mac, he says our option friends, he works, suggests people are aggressively playing for the downside. He's talking about biotech specifically, calls that bullish tactically.

But in the face of deteriorating relative trends, buying oversold downwards as a dangerous game. If you play, play small now, you may say, well, I did play. I got a small position nona less. What gives you the belief that biotech is going to work now? And why did you sell amgen thinking that obviously.

maybe healthcare is not. I think sometimes when you look your portfolio and when you're trading and we're thinking about risk management, you afford yourself the flexibility to take the shot on something. And i've been one who for several weeks has been talking about stay high up and equity size class, so high up mid caps and large caps.

Jimmy, I know you like small caps. Well, owning the x pi is is a very pure way to get exposure to small caps themselves. If you think about what's happened with health care since the election, health care, the X L V down since the election, the ibb, which is a biotech etf that focuses on middle large cap that's down, but yet the x bi is higher.

So I looked at what I had. I know that need to f, we only have a four point eight percent waiting to health care that's well below the twelve ve percent waiting of the S M. P.

Health care. So i'm under exposed there. I've done okay with am gena gray done okay. It's large cap tech more than anything else. We had the new yesterday with barret. I still think amgen's gonna fine in the long run, but I wanted to give myself the shot to get a little bit the exposure to small all capt, in an area of the market that I know my portfolio certainly is under allocated towards.

Got the U N, H. And vertex.

Yeah and you know I said this earlier that I do think you mentioned, Scott, that health care is under perform. That's factually correct. I do think that's a place you can look.

I understand that if I say you, as I am right now, that lighter regulatory judge should help earth. Sorry, Scott, making fun of me, go figure that a later regulatory touch should help health care. I realize we not going to abolish the fda, but still the sentiment matters. If you're in a lighter regulatory administration, people are going to look at one of the most overregulated industries like health care and say, hey, maybe that's what puts some money.

Let's kept the conversation before we take a break with a move for another move, this one from jim lavin. Thur and IT has nothing to do with health care. Lucky, y.

Martin, so you trim microsoft as we set at the very top. So let's rounded out with what you do with the money you bought. More lucky. why?

A couple of reasons to want to want to be more in strikes, as i'd mentioned at the beginning. And as we all know, industrials, along with financials, are really on fire right now. And unfortunately, IT makes me wins. But we are still going to be in a hot war environment for quite some time. The missiles and planes that lucky Martin makes are going to be in high demand.

All right, i'll take a quick break coming up. We do have four bullish calls on four committee stocks .

cause the day next C N B C exclusive home depot C E O ted decker on the home improvement in the street, the state of the economy and consumer spending trends stay ahead of the market school box tomorrow six A M E R C N B C.

I look back with you. Semana was called on holding today, upgraded following its earnings. It's up a hundred percent year today, new record high today. Fourth positive session out of the last five. Jimmy owns that stock.

What do you think what is fun been fun, I hope others watching owner as well. Project IT learns for share growth is above thirty percent in the coming twelve months. I think when look at that and you compare IT to a multiple, it's in the high forties.

I think that's fair. I think the estimates are likely to go higher after earnings. There's a lot of expansion ary things going on here, whether it's expanding into a peril from shoes, whether it's going to hiking shoes as well as running shoes, whether it's new geography, there's a lot going on fundamentally to like here. And again, for the second time, I want a reference, joe. The momentum m terrific.

The Price targets got bombed. B, T, I, G, sixty four tells the sixty two Williams at sixty. So we let just throw that up again.

Um just reminder of yours where it's currently trading now as we go through the fifty foreign change. But that chart is really straight up until the right. As we said.

it's a double, you know but IT comes down. Look at that you're looking at right now. There was a moment just about a months and a half ago where I came down. Great buying opportunity would probably happen again if IT sees if you see that folks .

you can get right in all right, walmart speak to, they called their top pic of the holiday season. Shen uh, outperform ninety two bucks, ninety one bucks at da. And gordon has get what you think about stuck yeah.

So we've seen this consolidation right in terms of the combination of value and convenience for shoppers. You've seen a lot of the fixed Price stores really under a lot of pressure over the last few months and that consolidation by both market and costco of these buyers up and down the income chain. Um you know you're seeing that continued strength then. So you know I think that there's really starting to be a bivar tion here in terms of retail um and those stores that can capture those consumers up and down the spectrum. And they you're going to be a well position for twenty five.

joe.

You're on the stock, right? I do with the economy of scale. And clearly, for costco and walmart, they're benefiting relative to target.

Let's keep in mind the holiday season is shorter by one week. You have thanksgiving on the twenty eighth. We all return to work on the following monday, december already.

So the obviously bricking border retail is gonna struggle. That environment, I think the winners are going to continue to be amazon, costco and walmart. What about block .

our performance bernstein today should gain under the new administration? They think what think because the procyta stands and deregulation.

you agree with that? I mean, that's what IT is. IT got to add IT IT to the etf on october thirty first.

IT was added purely for momentum. Now it's benefiting from the crypt o environment. The revenue growth is not really there.

I an you talking about a company that was growing at twenty percent just twelve to eighteen months ago, now single digits. So I can't make a strong fundamental argument. I'll call IT exactly what IT is. Its mountains mental purus related to the gypt.

Alright, netflix reiterated by jeffrey a new record high the day a joe you need personally and in the and in the E T.

and stay and staying with IT in in both of those positions. why? Because we can talk about put the tactical to decide.

How about the fundamental friday night you have my time adverse. Jake, paul, let's go. Mike tyson for all our older guys.

And then on Christmas day, can can you come up with Better games than chief stealers ravins texins? Two hundred and eighty two million subscribers turn the calendar into january. Here comes W W E.

Once a week. You know, some point u fc is going to get involved in this. So live sports is the future for for netflix. And after what they went through with passwords and ad tear, it's just another strong fundamental cattle. All right.

let's get the headlines now from silvana ho. Hi suba renee.

While advance al trump returns to the White house today ahead of his inauguration, two democratic governors announced and initiative they say will protect state level institutions during his second term, the leader's governor, jabe pricker of lenny and jared police of colorado, say the governors, a safeguarding democracy coalition tion will help protect the rule of law.

They say the privately funded organization is a non partisan, and they are asking their republican counterparts to join the effort. Russia launched its a first missile android attack on ukraine's capital city today since August. Ukraine officials say no casualties or damages have been reported so far.

IT came on the same day keep security officials claim responsibility for a car bombing in crimea that killed a senior russian naval officer, and the louville fire department says he does not have answers this morning about what caused a massive explosion yesterday. that. Levels a leval factory.

Two people were killed and twelve were injured. The blast took place at a facility that makes colors and romas for the food and beverage industry. Scope of back to you, right?

Want to thank you. Want a now coming up. One of joes names sitting a new record high following its earnings were trading today's top movers right after this quick break.

Cnbc exclusive home depot o ted decker on the home improvement in the street, the state of the economy and consumer spending trends stay ahead of the market square box tomorrow. Six A M E R C, N B C.

welcome back. I know we are Green across the board. Uh, now. S N P, and back six thousand thousand above forty four thousand. Still, one seventy seven is the game today.

We're looking at spotify the day because IT beat IT missed on its earnings and rabbit did topics profit forecasts to new record high today. Joe, you owned IT. IT was reiterated today overweight and a top pick over Morgan standing.

So IT will continue to be in the etf until the end of january. At that point, we will analyze IT. I'll say this, okay.

The stock is rich in terms of its valuation. The earnings report, subscriber growth was good, profit margin was good. They did miss IT wasn't in a spectacular report.

I think what's happened here is that the analyst community is finally coming down to prior performance and acknowledging prior performance after the report and now raising their Price targets of twenty nine by nine holds and one self four sixty five Price target. So they've increased that. What does that all mean for the viewers? I don't get chase IT here.

okay? There is a eleven person today master card and take a look at those shares today. They their prey forecasts for twenty five or twenty seven.

Bernstein prefers VISA over that. Jimmy, you own VISA. Joe owns master card. We can have a little bit of debate, hand gestures, whatever you need to do to make your point, please have that at last time was you're very forceful in the way you spoke about IT. And so you want to do that again with VISA.

Yes, but i'm not sure what the hand signals to what here because .

they really want to give to, they really look like .

want to really looked like they're the same to me. I mean, the same motor forces should move both names. And expanding economy, increased spending, a higher employment increases, the the willingness of a banks to issue credit.

You know, there will be times when one other performs the other, but I think they really should move in lockstep. I happened like visit just because it's the bigger of the two, but i'm not taking shots. I can't take shots. I can take shots at master card.

He can take shots OK what you can do. So if you could look at the factors and the factor, when you look at your favorite factor, which is momentum, Jimmy loves momentum now. okay.

Momentum with momentum guide you towards mastercard because you've seen our performance over the last year. Then when you look on the other side that say, okay, fundamentally, what is this company delivering? The revenue growth is much Better at master ard.

Then IT is VISA. I H you're looking at me. No, I no, no.

Listen on est conversation here to give .

you the number.

So but VISA, I mean, momentum here is pretty phenomenal.

is momentum phenomenon. But the momentum mastercard is actually well Better than VISA. And the revenue growth, I like twenty percent revenue growth this VISA given me twenty percent .

revenue growth this via urt. Is that okay?

No, looks good and we won't. It's been in the etf in the past. I always say what I it's the E T. The etf is owned in the past, but the revenue growth is not what you're getting.

A master card. fine. All right?

No, iron team.

There is me. 这是 肖文 周期 的这 me.

joe and duty.

Okay okay, the home builders um maybe this because of the edge being taken off of yields on CPI because they haven't traded well lately on you know rates going up, mortgage rates going up. What do you think of this group here? Is that just too tRicky because it's gonna pulled by where rates go or what you think mean the housing .

sector needs more in toria and lower rates? And those two things are really difficult. A bit of a chicken and o joe talked about this um frequently.

You know the incentives that are being required right now for home builders to sell their properties um in luu of lower rates, it's really chAllenging. And so I believe this could be a clear catalyst for the U. S. Economy in twenty twenty five. But we just need to see more gates settle out to to in order to create some capitulation for home buyers that this is really as low as they're going to go and then they get a Better hand on what that affordability looks like.

right? Copper, lowest levels in september. The 1 is down eight and half since the election。 Why do we think that is china?

I mean, there's china is coming into the scenario with the potential trade war. We can talk about whether the bark is more worse than the bite in terms of the size of the terrorists that are going to be put on by the trump administration. But the bottom line is that china is coming into the scenario much weaker than they were in two thousand and seventeen. And so there there's real concerns about the potential for um continued continued slow economy in china. right?

Quick break and send totally. He's next mike is with his midday word. I've see your markets commentator mike and told hear the desk for his midday where now I drops and knowledge on us which so I watch on your mind today as we all take stock of where we've been .

over the last week yeah I mean, markets very firm and it's sort of 招 的 credibly painless way this week you've got mostly sideways。 It's still rotationally first as much as that seems like everyone is kind of bought with both hands. Last week, swab daily average trades were up twelve percent in the prior week ending.

People people got involved, but it's rotational. What I mean by that is it's all going toward the stuff that people think is going to benefit its cycles, its financials, its industrials and things you're backing off in the face of that semis. Another context would be a big problem for this market.

They have really surrendered the leadership that for sale every day. But I guess what software are software percent? This week, you done five in a have so that, that flow is keeping us in place right here.

We talked earlier about how the CPI number could have been seized on as an excuse for a market to book off for, for yields to get a little bit out of hand. Obviously didn't have enough there that the number was in the zone enough that we're passing IT by. So we'll say, IT, it's hard to fight the flows.

That's where we are right now. And it's not it's, I don't know, think that moment for, again, expensive. But IT shows you that coming into the election, this was not a hated on their owned market. If there was room to be risk is room for yells to go up safely, room for the doll with a rally without causing too much problem. But you wonder how much more from here?

Well, room for the fed to cut. Yeah, in december because of today's print.

That's that's a big deal. yes. So you can dial IT ahead six weeks and say we think we know we are getting after that, we'll figure out get right.

seeing a bit like and totally draw me, of course, on closing. Well will do to set up next. Let's give you to set up now. Companies are reporting earnings this week. Cisco, that's after the bell today, Jamie, right?

yeah. And it's had a great valley over the last three months in particular. It's had two good quarters in a row.

Now I want to just I don't want to be cautious, but I have to be a little cautious here. It's treating at sixteen times forward earnings and perisco over the last fifteen years that high. Usually it's around thirteen times earnings.

我 that means is one of two things， if they do well this corner, which faker I think they will, because of A I A expenditure that are going their way, then I think that multiple can be validated, estimates will go higher and with that, the share Price. But if they miss these things coming down hard, I don't think there's gonna miss. I just need them to do a little bit Better than the estimates as they usually do.

Okay, a mat is tomorrow after the bill. Joe.

you have that in the tea. Yes, lam was a dud. Clark was a dud. Aim is going to be all about what does the china demand look like. So the pressure is on. You also want to hear on the conference call their thoughts on the new administration and what the potential restrictions and the environment .

as is the direct read through to the others, which you said are a due to. So assume that is not going .

to be Priced in. The news could be Priced in. Yeah, they kind of all three major year. There was me all.

all three montreal time mats, down ten and a half percent in one month time. In one outliers.

we sold lam research out of the etf at the end of october.

Okay, disney, that's tomorrow before the bell, Jenny.

yeah. Is anybody noticing a little bit of bit that disney has here on succession?

You think?

I know I don't think so. I think that's a twenty six thing. I'm not thinking about that. We've got a full another year of mr. g.

And that's good by the but i'm talking about there has been talking this week that maybe you're getting closer and even closer than some had expected to naming a successor to mister iger and that James Norman maybe taking an elevated role in that is interesting reading through to how he handled his own succession and transition network and stand what that's going to mean for disney. I just wonder if there's any of that a getting that clearing event, if you will come out of the way.

I think that's a very good point. By the way. I think there's downside surprise potential.

I think josh on material and I may have mispronounce his name. He's the head of experiences theme parks at at a is the odds on favorite. He's done a very good job.

I think the market would be disappointed if he is not named. However, acknowledging your point, Scott, I do think just the business is getting Better. The stock has been held back by weakness and theme parks, uh, during the middle this year, and I expect that it's going to recover. While at the same time, the streaming business continues to pick up profitability.

we will baLance for couple and we'll come back with final s next. We're back with you on clothing belt three clock yesterday at your danny courtney Garcia, among others. I hope you will join me then. We do have a nice looking market. Ah as we hit the almost one o'clock in the east, farmer jim, your final trade today with your new tie what .

I like the new time you very proud of IT I really do like IT, but okay, that's just of IT. I also like a name that I also like a aim that jae mentioned earlier. Amazon, his little madi, says I stole this from him. As a final trade, you should feel complimented that I agree with you.

O, K.

industrial, we think that there's going to continue to be policy has an impulse going as twenty twenty five.

uh, right. Joy.

let's not be so fast, by the way, to beat up the mag seven. They're still going to work in the future. But so much there is of the market are also working well. Crowd strike would be my final trade to love anything.

Cyber current related four percent in next seven are mixed today. But again, we're picking up quite nicely here as we finish our programme. We're Better than two hundred on the downs that's good for third, the s and p, just about that same amount back above six thousand will watch IT all in the sea in a couple. You've been listening to see nbc halftime report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at twelve turn only on cnbc.

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