Poller Coaster (with Alyssa Farah Griffin)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. She's done one debate. I've done two. It's too late to do another. I'd love to in many ways, but it's too late. The voting is cast. The voters are out there immediately. Is everybody voting? Please get out and vote.

Well, here we go, Mike Murphy. Yeah, the electric words of a Trump retreat on debating. Yes. He's going five reverse gears, although I predict...

And I want to hear what our amazing guest has to say, who knows him well. But I predict 10 days from now, if he thinks he's losing, he'll be back in the time for debate business. Because the losing candidate can't give up the opportunity to put the ball in the air. But let's ask our terrific guest, first time on Hacks, longtime listener, longtime friend. Who is it, David? It's Alyssa Farrah Griffin.

My buddy, my panel buddy from CNN, a star of The View. Don't tell the other women I said that. Yeah, you're a dead man now, Axelrod. And former communications director for President Donald Trump. So she has great insights into the man, the myth, the

The whatever. Well, thank you guys for having me. I feel like I'm at the adults table now. This is so cool. Boy, you got the wrong memo here. Yeah, the four o'clock early bird here. The veterans is what we'll say. The whoopee cushions in the...

pinwheel hats yet. So my question is, is it going to rain on Axelrod? Because that's still my favorite night is when you were just leaked on on a CNN set for hours. That's why debates scare me. That was from the first debate. I was I had the second worst night that night next to Joe Biden because I had to sit. The CNN set was leaking and only on my chair.

So in between hits, they'd give me an umbrella. It was a bad omen of things to come for the Democrats that night. We're going to talk, David. I've got some new agents I want to hook you up with. No pneumonia. That shouldn't be in your rider. Yeah. I want to get to this debate thing in a second. Well, let's do it now. So, Alyssa, what about it? I mean, what about Murphy's, you know, every day is a new day for Donald Trump.

Do you think his people are pretty insistent he's not going to do it and rational people wouldn't want him to do it necessarily, given the last debate? What do you think? So strong agree with Murphy. I predict there will be a second debate and Trump will show up. Listen, he's not somebody who it's not in his DNA to walk away from a 70 million person audience.

He's going to see it if he feels like he's lagging or even if it's tight. He needs that big opportunity. I also think even though he's claiming he won, he knows he lost the last debate. So he's not going to want to leave the field having lost the only presidential debate to Kamala Harris. So I think he needs it. I think he'll show up. But by the way, I also think she needs it, even though she objectively crushed him in the last one.

She needs to appeal to that 28 percent of voters who need to learn more about her and need to hear more about her. So I think they both need it. And I think it's going to happen and be a big night on CNN. All right. OK, now you tipped your mitt, your...

You're promoting here. You're promoting the event. I'm supposed to say now it's going to be on NBC, except I'm no longer contractually obligated. So it can be on the Weather Channel for our care. Finally, he can tell the truth. Oh, come on. So, yeah, I just think if he thinks he's losing...

he's not going to let that audience go and that opportunity to rock things. So it's possible, but they probably believe it now. His rationale is ridiculous because he debated on October 22nd last time. This is October 23rd. But honestly, if you were handling his race, would you trust him to go out on that debate?

If I were following his strategy next time, I would be sitting at 4 a.m. at my desk with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver, wondering how the hell I wound up in hell. But I would be like, what the hell we're losing? We might as well put the human grenade out there and hope for the best, because if we don't do anything, we're cooked. Now, if I'm in a really tight race with him, yeah, then I go to Ming Vaz and

And I'm like, the downside is more than the up. On the other hand, I think right now we're talking about all these crazy polls, but just kind of the spider sense that we old consultant, you know, fossils have feels to me like she's. I thought that was rheumatism, but that too, um, I can feel the weather, but it feels to me like she peaked four days ago. Nothing's happening. She almost needs something big to happen. So I don't know. I, uh,

Well, let's talk about that. Cause I like settled. I am. I'm like,

rip shit about these polls because they're insane. New York Times has a poll yesterday. Everybody, first of all, everybody in the media business covers every poll like they're stone tablets, like they're absolute fact. And especially when they come in the sainted New York Times. But they polled the last time they polled, which was before the first debate,

they had her winning Arizona by five points. They poll this week and they say he's winning Arizona by five points, a 10 point swing after the debate. It's like that can't be. And it's not consonant with anything else that,

that I've seen, including private polls that I trust more because they do things more rigorously and invest more money. You know, last week they said, well, she's even that the race is even nationally, but Harris is winning Pennsylvania by four points.

Those two things don't cohere. I'm loving this because every Republican consultant, and listen, knows this, for 40 years has spent a lot of time in a campaign banging their head against the wall, that damn New York Times. They just screwed us again on the front page. So I feel your pain. But my advice about these polls is the same as my advice about heroin speedballs.

You don't really need to dive in and do it every day. You step back a little. And when you compare apples to oranges, different methodologies, you

Um, you know, and people also, you get different outcomes. You also have the margin of error, which is forgotten in journalistic coverage of most polling, you know, a couple of points on each number. So polls are a therapy animal people use to feel better about next week. Oh, thank God we're going to win. Oh my God, Trump's ahead. And we just, the poll that I watched this week, and then I'll shut up and let Alyssa get in here. Um,

was the POS Garen Hart poll, the one done for NBC. And it's national. The states count more. But the internals in that of how they perceived the two of them had a lot of good news for her, a lot of good. She was the candidate of change by double digits, nearly 50%. She's closed the gap on running the economy. She's not there yet, but she's closed it to eight or nine, depending on they had two questions on it.

on all the physically and mentally able to do what she beat him by double digits. There were a lot of good leading hints there that I think may permeate through the race. On the other hand, it doesn't feel to me like she's out. It's hard to quantify, but I feel like she's flattened out a little. Anyway,

What do you think, Alyssa? And then we'll go back to David and we're going to dictate a letter to New York Times here together. Listen, the Times is not the only offender. Let me make it clear, because we get polls on the same day that say things that are completely different. Completely different. She's winning the change thing. She's losing the change thing. I mean, it's just it'll drive you nuts. Well, let me just say quickly, I asked Dr. David Hill.

the pollster who first brought the Rolling Stones to Alabama. So he has special credentials. I've worked with him Republican politics, long time. He's a PhD. And he said, don't forget in this modern era. Now the landline is dead. We have to call a thousand people to get a survey complete. It costs money. That's why these news organizations, you know, they are varying in their accuracy because not all of them are as rigorous as they should be. Go ahead, Alyssa. No,

this, I agree this New York Times-Siena poll feels like an outlier. I'm just not convinced most of the aggregate polling we've seen shows her having some positive movement in the Sun Belt. And to have something that's showing Ruben Gallego so significantly outperforming Carrie Lake in Arizona, but then her lagging, that doesn't really compute. The Carrie Lake opposition vote in Arizona, in some part, is moderates

independents, and even disillusioned Republicans who are voting for a change agent against the crazy, the election denialism. So I have a hard time with how big of a delta specifically there is in Arizona in this poll. But I mean, listen, it's a polar coaster. We're going to get this like absolute whiplash. I was proud of that one. Again,

it's really hard to measure a lot this race. To Murphy's point, people under the age of 40 don't even have landlines. So if you're not doing polls to cell phones, you're missing a huge voting swath. Beyond that, I'm kind of curious about folks who may not even, this is actually

maybe positive for Trump, may not be registering in these polls, which are some of these young white men that he's been targeting. He's going on these podcasts, the Joe Rogan kind of vote of the world, who are low propensity voters, maybe not even voted in the past that he's activating and trying to turn out.

I'm really curious to see if those efforts are as strong as his campaign thinks they are. And those are folks that I don't likely think would be reflected in some of the traditional polling we're seeing. Actually, though, you know, go ahead. But at the same time, I think you could say the same for first time young voters who may be registering to vote for the first time for Kamala Harris that are likely not reflected in some of these polls.

Look, first of all, I do think some of it is registering. I mean, one of the things that seems fairly consistent is while she has closed the gap and in terms of African-American voters, she's doing far better than Biden was when he got out of the race. There's still some voters hanging out there and they tend to be younger black men. And I think they are a big battleground in this state. But the the

Look, the polling that I trust, the polling that I see, the polling that, you know, campaigns and super PACs and others are doing are fairly consistent. And in it, there aren't these huge lurches. This has been a she's made a slow, steady ascent.

She's ahead right now. She keeps making incremental progress. But these battleground states, you know, Michigan, Pennsylvania, they're really very, very close. They're basically tied. Right. She's making progress in these Sunbelt states, but they're that Trump still has a slight lead in those states. Except for Nevada. That's the one where she has. So you saw a Nevada poll where she was ahead. I've seen three now private polls.

Not a lot. You know, ahead these days is at the end of the margin. But, no, I agree with you. See, there's a problem with media polls. I've carved about this forever. It's one of the few times where the media creates a story, our new poll, and then covers it. And there's no rule book. And, you know, publishers, well, wait a minute. We can do the Blunderburg poll for $3,000 or the Pew for $100,000. We'll go with Blunderburg. We get the same headline.

So I think it is a distortion effect. I tell people the Murphy poll is always right. You're one point behind.

Yeah. Well, that's a good consultant. That's a good consultant posture because that's the way campaigns should run. Right. The Times poll, by the way, I just want to say this. I think they are more rigorous than a lot of them. The other the other thing is, though, if if if a news organization is going to invest a lot of money in a poll, they're not going to look at it. You know, every poll, it doesn't matter who's pulling. Every poll can be a little funky. But

But if you invest a lot of money in a poll in news organizations, I'm going to say, well, let's throw that one out. We're not going to report on that. And they probably get scolded if someone found out, found out that they had. But one thing that I believe, and this is going to be a segue. So segue alert. Yeah. One thing on my seatbelt. I saw one thing. One thing that I believe is that,

I think that she did make advances with that debate that are more than trivial. And one of the reasons she did is not just because of the night or the coverage of the night, but because of social media. And the thing, one of the things that is living today,

uh on after that debate is this you know stupid and you know in in many ways reprehensible but dogs and cats thing yeah no i can tell you you're a week late but you're right it's huge i'm not a week late because it's still reverberating out there i want to play i want to play space david i want to play the song yeah it's great yeah in springfield they're eating the dogs

They're eating the cats, they're eating the pets of the people that live there. They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats, they're eating the pets of the people that live there. People of Springfield, please don't eat my cats. Why would you do that? Eat something else.

Okay

So that thing has gotten, the last I looked, which was several days ago, it had gotten 8 million views. Okay? This kind of stuff...

Is the you know, this is how a lot of those low information younger voters that you're talking about. Totally. And he's getting killed. Right. He's getting absolutely tick tock. There's so many versions of this. That one was the best I've got to say. But it's become a viral sensation and it is mocking him. Something, by the way, that he hates. But I think if you're a younger person viewing that.

Who wants to be with the guy that's being mocked on TikTok for saying crazy things? This was Biden's problem. I mean, for months and months and months, he was the butt of all of these social media memes. Now this is turned on Trump. And beyond that, the campaigns, there's a big disparity. There was a piece this week about the disparity in social media spending, digital spending by the campaigns. I mean, this is a...

This is a problem for Trump. He's on the receiving end of this now. Well, you never want to be. They have all of pop culture zeroed in on you. Yes, Sarah Palin, what that feels like, because you can get totally defined, especially among younger voters. And the genius of this stuff is if it hits that cord, like the cat literally in that we just saw literally that cord. Yeah.

It grows for free. You don't have to spend anything. It's organic, which is powerful in a world of inauthentic politics. So, yeah, I keep going back to a standard theory of this, which is all the pieces she has the advantage. You know, the things that more money.

She's becoming a bit of a change candidate. If she can pull that off at a big enough level and hold off the economy, she'll win, et cetera, et cetera. He's still got one thing that's got very little to do with him, this big wall of lava of economic dissatisfaction. Fire somebody. And she's the most fireable person because she's part of the incumbency. So that's the contest here. And Trump's just riding along. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

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I agree with Murphy. You know, if you were running his campaign and there are rational people running his campaign who have tried, who have been trying, you would you would be running on. She's a continuity candidate. You know, if you like high inflation, if you like.

you know, open board, whatever, you know, you're going to get more of the same. And they've tried to do that. I think we may have a spot that reflects that. Their Bidenomics led to the highest inflation in 40 years, highest gas prices ever, skyrocketing interest rates, unaffordable housing, incomes down,

unemployment rising and a recession now headed our way yet kamala harris is clueless you're very proud of bytonomics bytonomics is working i'm donald j trump and i approve this message so alissa here's my question

That is the obvious strategy. People are unhappy with the direction of the country. You want to make her part of the prevailing thought. But every time he goes out there,

He steps on his own story. They put stuff on the prompter and he then he goes off on his own. You were in charge of trying to get him to stay on message once. What do you make of that? And can he become more disciplined? Can he actually deliver a message that.

That hurts instead of doing stand-up and improvising everywhere. So a few things. First and foremost, Donald Trump's not the candidate he was in 2016. He's not even the candidate he was in 2020. I was with him in 2020 when...

he often would go off message. We remember the first debate, the proud boys moment, but we also remember a second debate he showed up for and was largely on message. He was able to do rally speeches where he would to some degree stick to prompter.

I notice a major decline in his discipline this cycle, even when, you know, we remember that that Bedminster event where he literally had groceries around him to remind him to talk about inflation, the cost of groceries and goods, and he went every other direction. So that's Donald the cantaloupe. It's a legitimate challenge his campaign faces. And what's kind of remarkable to me is I actually don't think it's hard to run a smart campaign against Kamala Harris.

But they took too long to get their footing. So they started with the she's ultra left. She's basically Bernie Sanders. She's comrade Kamala and kind of running her 2019 campaign playbook interface, which legitimate, but a much stronger place to be. To your point, Axe, is she's simply a continuation of everything you didn't like about Joe Biden and just tie her to every policy. And well, are you better off? Are you better off? That's the thing. They're

He got to it in the 89th minute of his debate. Well, exactly. He has ads that do it, but he, the candidate, has a really hard time just sticking to that script and landing that message.

That's the tell, by the way. How much of that, guys, is the pressure that I mean, there's a lot at stake for Donald Trump here beyond the normal candidate, because, you know, we forget and all the hubbub. He does have these cases hanging over him. He's been convicted in one. He could go to prison in some of these cases. How?

How much is him just like in a little bit of a freak out? Oh, a lot of it. He's bananas to begin with. Now he's old and crazy or older and he's feeling all this pressure. He's insecure. So he needs constant positive reinforcement and he's not getting it because he for all his bluster, he turns on the TV and sees these crazy polls. You're winning. You're losing. You're losing. You're winning. So.

So, yeah, yeah, he's totally cracking up. It is a huge tell that the one thing in this campaign, Trump campaign, that has a fairly coherent message is the paid advertising. And that's the one thing Trump doesn't have anything to do with.

Well, and I do think, by the way, that's kind of a lost theme in major part of this election is that Donald Trump in some part is running to stay out of jail. It's simply a fact. I was talking to CNN's Ellie Honig about this, but if he loses by, you know, probably early 2026, he's going to be standing trial, whether in documents, whether in January 6th. This is a real thing that he is facing. He doesn't talk about it. I don't feel like the media contextualizes that enough, but

I think being 78 years old, running for the third time and having that on the other side of a loss is driving him a little crazier than usual. To that point, here's an ad. I think it just went up from a super PAC, from that Future Forward super PAC. And we should say Future Forward is the main authorized pro-Harris super PAC. So this is their partner super PAC.

I had a summer job at McDonald's. He was born there. I'm very rich. She fights for you. When our middle class is strong, America is strong. He doesn't. You're rich as hell. We're going to give you back, sir. She has a reason for running. We

We are helping dig families out of debt by telling billionaires to pay their fair share. And so does he. They want to put me in jail. Kamala Harris, for you. FFAC is responsible for the content of this ad. They kind of picked up on your theme there, Alyssa, trying to remind people, uh,

Well, by the way, I didn't think she was going to go there in the debate bringing up any of his criminal convictions. Hillary Clinton had written that piece kind of encouraging her to trigger him and to try to goad him into to fight mode. And I at the time was like, no, no, no, do no harm and just talk about what you're for. But she actually expertly was able to just remind folks this is somebody who's been convicted, is a convicted felon in prison.

all the other things that we know about him. It's effective for her. Can I just jump in? Because Future Forward is very data-driven, and they're going to say that ad tested off the chart, and it may have, but I'm going to be a contrarian. I hate that spot because I think all the subtext of it is wrong. I don't like her bragging about working at McDonald's like she was at Anzio Beach.

It is a very normal thing to work at McDonald's. It is a good thing. And the fact that it's the old Lamar Alexander line, like a Boy Scout wanting a merit badge for telling the truth, I just think it pushes it a little bit.

I don't know. I just, I think the selling psychology of that thing is all kind of wrong. And yeah, snicker, snicker, there he is, an old white guy in a golf cart. There are a lot of old white guys in golf carts, and she could use a few of them on election day. So I just...

The ad creative in me, I bump on that ad. Now, I know the research is probably great and the Hillary analytics say it can't lose and everything. I don't know. I'm curious what you think, Axe, because you've made a lot of ads. Is that thing on the...

the subtext and sales psychology thing. Does that spot work for you? Look, the McDonald's thing, I think has been overdone by, by her, but you say, well, you know, that's a normal thing. I think part of the message is that is a normal thing that he's not like,

and that she identifies with sort of everyday people and that she's going to fight for everyday people and that he's fighting for himself. So, you know, I can see why it might test. I like the idea. I just don't like the execution. The execution of it. It's a super PAC ad.

So, you know, they have a little more license and latitude to do what they do. But let's talk a little bit about her because she did an interview, sort of a friendly interview with Oprah. And the big headline out of that interview was this clip here. I'm a gun owner. Tim Walz is a gun owner. I did not know that.

If somebody breaks in my house, they're getting shot. Yes, yes. I hear that. I hear that. Probably should not have said that. My staff will deal with that later.

So, Alyssa, what was your reaction to that? Listen, she should have just let it hang there, not that I need to clean it up, because I actually thought it was a great moment, more so in the debate. It's the second time she's telling us she's a gun owner, but it's the Castle Doctrine. Most Americans believe if somebody breaks into your house, you do have a right to protect and defend yourself.

I think if she's trying to make this, you know, it's very much a Pennsylvania play where the, you know, Second Amendment is a major issue. I think it softens her on it. It makes her seem like she's, quote unquote, one of us. A perfectly fine moment. I don't know that it massively moves the needle, but I do think the revelation that she's a gun owner is a very positive thing for her because it goes back against this idea of her as an ultra liberal who wants to round up and take away your guns.

I like the idea of a candidate packing chrome in case the hombres show up. I love when you talk like that. They live in Bel Air and they're millionaires, so I think they have to get through a wall of private security before they get to the Secret Service, before they get to her in her 45. But yeah, I thought the, look, it was authentic. Anything authentic is good. I agree capping it where all of a sudden she's calculating about her politics was unfortunate.

But in the moment, I think it did her no harm. That said, again, we're playing a lot of fantasy football here. That's what we do. Yeah, I know. It's our stock and trade. Exactly. I think she stalled a little. So having that be the big bite out of an Oprah thing rather than let me tell you about somebody who came up to me on the campaign trails working two jobs and could lose their house next month.

Oh, we haven't done that. That's the bite I would want because she's not scoring the way I would hope she would be. Even off the debate. Look, I thought the debate was a masterclass. She took him apart. I mean, you know, she I think I've said it here before, but she was Pavlov and he was the dog. But there is a gap that has to be filled. She is utterly passionate, persuasive, convincing on the issue of abortion rights.

And you can feel that when she speaks. She's still looking for the authentic voice on the economic issues. And those economic issues are not just number one in polling, but they're number one with these sort of disengaged voters and voters.

you know, more young than old, uh, who are going to decide this election. So that didn't change her, the keys to the kingdom. So they got to put the whole franchise behind it and they got to get good at it. The other thing, there was a political article I thought was pretty smart a few days ago. She's got to get into meat and potato job stuff, metal bending, all that, not, you know, there, it was, it was kind of worried that a little bit of the

Biden, you know, monkey wrench job thing would help her. And I couldn't agree more with that. And I hear that coming out of states where I've done governor races in the industrial Midwest, but let me try a pivot here. We have a new feature on hacks on tap, the Nazi porn freak corner. Yeah.

because we have a Nazi porn freak. Our writers have been working on this for months. If we had another day, we would have had a Nazi porn freak jingle, but unfortunately we couldn't get it together. But let's hear ad number two, which I think is tactically to try to gum up Trump for another two days, a pretty smart ad. Ran in North Carolina. Yeah.

And he's been an unbelievable Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. For me, there is no compromise on abortion. I think you're better than Martin Luther King. We could pass a bill saying you can't have an abortion in North Carolina for any reason. Abortion in this country, it's about killing a child because you aren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down. I've been with him a lot. I've gotten to know him and he's outstanding. Donald Trump and Mark Robinson, they're both wrong for North Carolina.

I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message. I'm not sure the Karam shot will work in Carolina, but I think that gums up Trump in other states because he's got it like, and he hasn't done it. He's kind of half avoiding the guy. But anyway, so I thought tactically good. What do you think, Axe? I think that they wanted to go on quickly on Robinson while the iron was hot. They probably had this in the can. But the other element of it is,

is that they are making a major push on abortion rights in media this week. And, you know, on all different channels, she went down to Georgia to talk about those poor women who could not get treatment and who died and

And so I think that it is in step with the message that they're trying to deliver. I think everybody in North Carolina probably has heard about the fact that Robinson, you know, CNN reported that Robinson was on these this weird what's it called?

Nude Africa. Yeah, nude Africa. Yeah, unlike nude Ireland, where all we do is look at pictures of Jameson Bonds with the label peeled off. You do what you want in your private time. I don't want to hear about it, Murphy. Yeah, I won't even get into nude Chicago, Pat. I'm not going to tell you about what's going on there. Go ahead. Not to interrupt this, but listen, it's just a different...

play an angle to the whole discussion Kamala Harris is trying to push around reproductive health. So one way to do it is we've seen a lot of this talking about victims, people who wanted to have children, their future fertility was jeopardized or they lost a child, or even this case in Georgia where the woman herself died.

That's one where you kind of pull the heartstrings. Something that I actually find incredibly effective, I think, with moderate and swing female voters is what you saw in that ad, which is a Republican man demonizing women who have unexpected pregnancies. So that line about keeping your skirt down, that makes women's skin crawl. It's a radioactive thing to hear. And what I think she's doing here is

there's not a lot of evidence of reverse coattails where Mark Robinson's going to drag down Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. But I think she's hoping that there might be a little bit of that, that if there's somebody so toxic, so radioactive on the ballot there, that people might be like, you know, maybe I'm just going to vote them across the board. Yeah, I think it's more about Michigan and Pennsylvania than North Carolina. He's dead in North Carolina. He's been dead for months. But Trump being linked to this guy who for the next hundred hours is number one creep.

It's good on a wider basis. Well, you're talking about Robinson being dead for months, not Trump. But, you know, the thing about the thing about the ad that's effective is is not just Robinson's unbelievably ugly comments.

But the fact that Trump is lionizing him and, you know, it does raise questions about Trump. And look, I think Republicans down there, they've done everything but, you know, get a jaws of life to try and remove him from this campaign. You know, his staff has quit. You know, they're they're hectoring him. They're asking for proof that this wasn't him, as he says.

And I think that the Trump campaign, Trump will not walk away from him.

Right, because Trump refuses to ever retreat, which is one of his weaknesses. So you can pull him into the old battle and grind him up. So if this is another—remember, what are we, 48 days out? And if you get into early voting, because Election Day is now 10 days long, we're in the 30s. Every day Trump's gummed up, half-defending a Nazi porn freak is a good day. Yeah.

And, you know, Trump, it makes it worse. By the way, we've never really tested. So 2020 midterms, the polls were largely off. Election deniers largely went down. Some of the more fringe candidates did. We haven't seen where a race where there's

fringe candidates and Donald Trump on the ticket, how the voting actually plays out. Because I think of the Kerry Lakes of the world losing, Mark Robinson obviously will lose. And I wonder where this sort of intellectual connection is with voters of, I can't be with Mark Robinson because he's a nut and he said X, Y, and Z. But oh, he was handpicked by Donald Trump and blessed by Donald Trump. There may be something to this. I would also be adding to that message if I were the Harris campaign leader.

he's a person who lacks judgment and surrounds himself by the worst people, not the best people. I think that might be something that resonates. Yeah, I think that's, but I, and I think that's sort of implicit in that ad. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. Folks, our next sponsor has truly made a positive impact on the most important people in my life. And no, I'm not talking about Mike Murphy. I'm talking about my cats.

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There's been this interesting situation in Nebraska, one of two states that has a district by district election of electors instead of winner take all by state, Maine being the other one. And so Lindsey Graham jumps on a plane and flies out to Nebraska to try and push the legislators out there to change the law.

uh and it all settled on this one guy one state in omaha one state senator they only have state senators there it's a bicameral yep exactly they're weird in a lot of ways but that uh but this guy is a democrat turned republican democrats i think unwisely drove him out of the party uh and he uh but he wants to run for mayor of omaha

And so voting for this means Omaha loses its power. Yeah. No, this thing is beautiful. So ours for a while had a secret plot. Wait a minute. Why don't we let Omaha – it's a weird – it's a second district. It's a 50-50 district currently held by a Republican. But it's got a – there's an Air Force base, there's a rural Republican county, and there's Omaha, which leans blue.

So this thing has one electoral vote where, again, as you said, they cast by congressional district, not winner take all. So the IRS has been trying to rig this, which would essentially, if they normied it like the rest of the country, they'd pick up an electoral college vote. It would instantly go Republican. And this one guy, and you can be cynical and say, well, he's running in Democratic Omaha for mayor or he's just crusty.

has said no. Jeff Smith there is saying no, and guess what? Looks like it's a done deal. It's going to stay the way it is, and nice try, Lindsey. The other side of it is, listen, if they had wanted to make this change, put it on the ballot, or have the state legislature look at it six months to a year ago, I wouldn't really have any problem with it. If the voters of Nebraska are like, sure, make it, win or take all, it's just the cynicism

of doing it 48 days out from an election when we know that right now it looks like things are razor thin. And by the way, it kind of reminds me, as much as Donald Trump screams about how everything around him is rigged, he's a big fan of rigging the system in his favor. I think of the Republican primary, how many of the early contests, his RNC changed to make winner take all so when Nikki Haley couldn't challenge him in a real way.

So Trump actually was on Truth Social sort of rolling up the flag here and and complaining about this one. He said state senator named a state senator, Mike McDonald, decided for no reason whatsoever to get in the way of a great Republican common sense victory. Just another grandstander.

Because Trump really abhors grandstanders. Who knows, perhaps one of the other two Republicans that were a no vote will change their minds. So he's still holding out a little hope. But he says basically nothing.

It looks like he says, I love Omaha and we won it in 2016. Looks like I'll have to do it again. So it's sort of semi rolled up the flag while still holding out hope that and the reason this is important is because if.

Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. She still needs one electoral vote or the election is tied and it goes to the House of Representatives where the way they they do it is by delegation, not by member. And Republicans have an advantage there. So Trump could win a tied election.

election. The hell scenario. I'm minding my own business and somebody will come up and say, you know, hey, you're that jerk from television or on that radio thing with that Axel Pod guy. You know, I'm a Democrat and I'm terrified of Trump, blah, blah, blah. And I say, move to Omaha. Leave me alone. Because 3,000 people

move to Omaha and we then and Harris fixes Pennsylvania which is trouble uh boom there it is done looks like the Middle East is headed to a very bad place uh yeah already there if there's a full-out war and I think that'll be a big story this week because the UN General Assembly meetings are in New York most of the world leaders are there Biden is speaking today

On The View tomorrow, by the way, we should – if you want to preview or check out any of your questions with us, Alyssa, we can help you hone them right here. We as a group can decide what you should be. We are very much at home in the vast canvas of world affairs here. Kissinger listens. Hey, Henry. From wherever he is.

uh may his memory be a blessing so uh the middle east is erupting and the question is does that have a material effect on the campaign does it lend some credence to you know trump's argument that the world's out of control and somehow i can bring i mean he seems he's an odd peacemaker to me but uh what does it do to because i think this race could could end up

turning on some unexpected thing, extraneous thing that none of us can fully predict. I think the doomsday scenario for Kamala Harris is the conflict in the Middle East exploding in a more significant way. She's managed to really separate herself from the

the frustration with Biden over Gaza, over the war between Israel and Hamas and really distanced herself. We were at the DNC, all of us were, and you really couldn't find the protesters. It wasn't this sort of 1968 level demonstration. I think we would have seen if it was still Biden on the ticket. I think there's something with younger voters where they don't see her as directly responsible. And she's navigated it, I think, a lot more elegantly than Biden has.

But that's something that could make a real difference. And I've talked to a lot of folks who don't generally trust Donald Trump on some aspects of national security and foreign policy, but they weirdly do on the Middle East. They think that he read Iran right and that he called their bluff and knew these are not people you can negotiate with and work with.

They see that there's been over 100 attacks on US positions in the Middle East since October 7th. And Donald Trump says that didn't happen under me. We had Iranian proxies at bay. So this is actually an area where I think he could persuade people he's the better force there, despite everything we know about him, the chaos that generally surrounds him. But yeah, listen, the best thing for Kamala Harris, she got a rate cut. She got Taylor Swift. If a ceasefire deal materializes, she's golden.

I think one of the worst case scenarios is this becomes a more significant conflict. I think it's a coin flip because if it really heats up, Trump will run as the hammer and he'll overplay his hand. And will people want that kind of strength? And I'm going to call the Ayatollah and say one word in Farsi nuclear, call this off. You know, are they going to want that or is that going to scare them? Cause it's Trump. On the other hand, her foreign policy, uh,

as light as a feather. So it's hard for her to be the candidate of real stature there. On the other hand, on policy, she's gotten to his right on foreign policy. Most of the establishment in both parties, by the way, is much more confident that her team would be able to handle this better than Trump trying to find, uh,

Israel on a map. So, you know, it could flip either way. Do you want the brainy pros around her or do you want Trump, you know, threatening all kinds of stuff? Do you want the angry hammer or do you want the cerebral way out? And that's kind of a fair fight. And I'm not sure how it'll how it'll go. So Donald Trump went and spoke to a group of Jewish Republicans in Vegas, I guess, and

And and this is what he said. Any Jewish person that votes for her, especially now, her or the Democrat Party should have their head examined. If I don't win this election and I've been very good, you know, they say Trump's been right about everything. In my opinion, the Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss. So now let me respond as a member of the tribe.

I can't imagine that's a persuasive argument with the Jewish community that you owe me and if you don't deliver, you could be responsible for me losing and I'll hold you responsible. You know, there's like thousands of years of history where people blame bad things on Jews and

And so I don't think that landed very well with American Jews who have a whole range of values and reasons for voting the way they do. And it's the reason that they vote in large numbers, you know, and have and continue to against Donald Trump. And somehow he thinks that they owe him.

Yeah, I think a guy of German heritage barking orders at the Jewish community is not a slick move. The Republicans have made inroads. They've done it with policy. But equally bad, he's going after my people, too. We're together on this act. The Catholics. He's going after the Catholics. And let me just say...

The oldest of all the Murphy Callahans, I'm the second oldest, is Archbishop Charles Brown, former chief of staff to the Pope. So phone lines are burning up here. There might have to be a holy response. But seriously, I do have a political question. I didn't know you were so connected. Oh, no. I used to, Charlie would come down to D.C.,

When I lived there and we'd go have lunch at the Palm and he'd walk in and he'd be in the clerical garb and all my political friends, too late, Murphy, way too late for you. Yes. But anyway, he's... Your meetings probably take place in a booth where you can completely unburden yourself. He's an incredibly impressive guy who's given a very virtuous life. He's currently the nuncio in the Philippines. But anyway, and he's a political junkie and loves American politics. But let me pivot to...

The L. Smith dinner, which is the historic kind of Catholic, old school, a lot of white dudes and all that in New York charitable dinner, which is kind of a gentle roast often between presidential candidates. Trump will be there. The holy water will go to a boil when he walks in, but hopefully simmer down. And Kamala Harris is not going. Now, on one hand, I can get the argument. Why do we want to be chained to Trump at some clown show? On the other hand,

Longtime listeners and Hacks fans, great comedians and writers, Patton Oswalt and Dana Gold, both told me, you know, everybody with a funny bone in Hollywood would happily volunteer material for her. Why not go? And I think it could be another big debate moment for her to kill.

But they passed. And I get it's a tricky call. What would you have told them, Axe and you, Alyssa? What's your call on that? Well, I always sort of lean into the aggressive. Yeah. You know, I think you can view things as minefields or you can view them as...

I don't know whether because of the whole battle over abortion rights, she doesn't feel comfortable doing it or whatever. But, you know, my thing is every minefield also is an opportunity and a minefield for the other idiot. Right. If you do it right. If you if you do it right. Can I mention one thing on this? Donald Trump has an incredibly narrow view of how he views policy and issues. So on that comment about, you know, blaming the Jews if he loses.

He in his mind, I moved the embassy to Jerusalem. Therefore, all American Jews should love me, even though there's completely conflicting opinions among American Jews on the issue. But same with Catholics. So he's thinking I rolled back Roe v. Wade. They must love me. Catholics are also very pro refugees, pro immigrant, pro helping your neighbor and really resist his policies. Exactly. But I actually think there's some landmines for him at it. But agree, she should have gone. It could be a big roast moment for her.

And a Trump comedy routine? It'll be two drunk Irish priests and a rabbi. Well, I mean, God knows what he's capable of doing. And she could soar above, I think, definite missed opportunity. And she could use another big moment. Yeah, the question is, can he do stand-up without playing it blue? I don't know. Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back.

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Before we get to the mail, I have one other issue. And this is beginning to really, really concern me. We are going to be in the same position on election night that we were last time, which is to say that the mail-in votes are going to be more from Democrats than Republicans. Because even though Trump's trying to retreat on that, he has so demonized mail-in voting that I think there is habitual...

in precinct voting by Republicans, a reversal of past history. And so the first votes that are counted on election night are by and large going to be, other than in a few states, the votes that were cast that day.

And we have the same effect that we had last time, which is in the early evening, Trump will look like he's leading and he will probably leap out there at some point and claim victory. And then the mail-in ballots will get counted in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They still aren't allowed to count them until election day. So it will, you know, it'll be several days in some of these states. Um,

And I don't think we're sufficiently I think the media needs to do a better job of really alerting people to the fact that this is going to happen this way. This is normal. It is the way these elections run. There's no evidence at all that there's anything wrong with it. But be prepared. This is how election night's going to run. I keep saying I've said it for years. Election Day is now 10 days long.

And they need to cover it that way. Well, we're going to have the election day vote coming in here. We're going to have the mail-in vote from a week ago coming in here. One tilts more red, one tilts more blue. And get people thinking about you're going to have to wait for the full picture. It is natural and how it ought to be, not some perversion or some fraud. Yeah, Liz and I are going to bring, we're going to bring sleeping bags and rations to election coverage, election night coverage on the theory that we'll be there for many days.

Well, and I do think we should be setting that expectation. The media should. There's virtually no chance it's going to be called election night because add in the Georgia hand ballot counting. So two of the most critical swing states that will determine the election are going to drag on for days, most likely. And I just think people need to know that. They're going to be covering exit polls, polls to drive you insane. All right. Let's hit the orchestra. Listener, man.

All right, if you have a mailbag question, email it to us at hacksontap at gmail.com. Hacksontap at gmail.com. You can also do a voice memo and email us at, use your name, keep it short. Or you can call our secret Chicago phone line. You can register to vote whether you want to or not. You can place a bet and you can leave us a question. The number is...

773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471.

We've upped our game, by the way. We now, for you YouTube watchers, you notice that we don't only have a number you can't remember. We have a font you can't read. See? We're modernizing. Hey, guys, I got a train to catch. So the mailbag is in your able hands. Alyssa, thank you for coming on. And Axe, I'll see you soon. All right, brother. Safe travels, Murph. All right, now. Welcome to the mailbag, Alyssa. This is so exciting. This is a very, very...

favorite feature of where our listeners get their say. Let me, let me start with DJ who left us a voicemail. We always like to hear from people, not just read their questions, but hear from them. And DJ has this question for you.

Hi, it's DJ from Minneapolis. I'm wondering if you think that COVID migration from blue states into Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, or even Texas could change the polling or voting realities in those states.

Thanks a lot. Has there been COVID migration to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? I'm not sure. So it's a great question. I mean, definitely Texas and Arizona. There's a pretty significant amount of data. I don't candidly know as much within the blue wall states.

My guess would it would have been somewhat measured in the midterms. If there was a significant amount of migration there, it would have been reflected in the votes that we saw there. But I think there are some demo shifts that we don't totally have our arms around. I'm still fascinated by the fact that Wisconsin...

getting back to the polling hell that we're in. But Wisconsin actually looks incredibly tight for Kamala Harris. She's got about a one point lead right now. And to me, that that speaks more to, I think, the demographic makeup of the state. It's a it's a predominantly white state. I think it's somewhere where she would be very wise to just deploy Tim Walz, park him there, have him out campaigning, doing that. I'm the dad who, you know, fixes the engine and I'm a normal guy, self-made like you.

that's an excellent place to use him. Arizona is a much more mixed bag, but I think it's worth considering this migration. I do think it would have been reflected, though, in 2022. I do think there's been migration from north to south. I don't think it's been from south to north.

You know, so I do think that that's a factor in these elections in North Carolina, in Georgia, perhaps in Arizona, although there's some migration from California, Arizona as well. So we'll see about that. In terms of Wisconsin, one of the hidden factors here, or it's not hidden, but it's a factor here, is

there is a real difference between organizational levels in Wisconsin and in all of these blue wall states. You've got Democratic governors, and in Wisconsin in particular, their Democratic Party, their state Democratic Party is well-funded. It's incredibly organized. They've had a lot of in-state elections that were pitched battles in which they've honed their organization. I think the organization could make a real difference for her in

in Wisconsin. The uncommitted vote also could, who they kind of declined to endorse, but it was a tacit nod to we're not for Trump, so therefore you can be for Kamala Harris. I do worry if the Middle East gets more complex, though, that that could move. That's a really good point. Let's hear what Carrie has to say. Hi, Hacks. This is Carrie from Arizona. I have a question about a proposition that's on our ballot this time. It's for open primaries. And

And I want your opinion on whether you think open primaries will actually help give us better candidates for the general election. Thank you. This is a really interesting one. And I don't know what state she's in. She didn't say. But we should say open primaries are where you run without party label. And the idea is that...

it might moderate the finals. You could have two Republicans or two Democrats, one more or less from the polls of each party in the race. What do you think, Alyssa? Andrew Yang's got a good book on the dream scenario reforms we could make to our system to better our politics. Most of them are not

even at all realistic in the current environment and with the party dynamics and power structures. And this is something he advocates for. It'd certainly be a good thing. I don't see it in terms of moderating candidates and putting a better quality candidates. I think I don't see it happening. I do like rank choice voting. And I think of, you know, they have it in Alaska, for example. That's something where I think it's interesting.

I would be I think it's more likely we would see that adopted more broadly than just fully open primaries. Obviously, the parties aren't crazy about it. In Nevada, rank choice voting passed once. It has to pass twice in order to become law. It's on the ballot again in this election. Yeah, I you know.

I think that is a more, that's probably a more focused way of getting to what they're pointing out. As you say, in Alaska, they have, that's why they have the Senator Murkowski and the Congresswoman they have there, who's a moderate Democrat because of this system. All right, here's the last question. And this is Honor Murphy, who's not here. Liz Cheney mentioned, this is from Alicia. Liz Cheney mentioned

Liz Cheney, Liz Cheney mentioned starting a new political party. Do you think this is likely? And do you think it's a good idea?

Alyssa Farah Griffin, lifelong Republican. Well, I'm also bummed to not get Murphy's very cynical take on this. Listen, I there's very little I disagree with Liz Cheney on. This is an open question to me. Do I think the current Republican Party is ever going to course correct and go back more to a mainstream Romney McCain national party that could even, you know, in a decade make an effort at winning the popular vote?

I think the answer is likely no. I think MAGAism is built in not just with the voters and supporters, but also institutionally with the infrastructure. You've got Laura Trump running the RNC. So there's definitely a discussion of

does do those who feel disillusioned and exiled from this party create something new? But to be honest, it's totally aspirational. We saw no labels try and try to recruit a candidate and they couldn't. It takes really, I would say it would take at least a decade to stand up something that would be formidable and not just be more of a minority party that actually ends up boosting likely the party it's trying to challenge, meaning the existing GOP. So the long winded way of saying

I'd love to see something rebuilt from the ground up, but I think that would be a 10-year effort. And that's why I think the real battlefield is in the existing GOP. If Trump loses, having real conversations about candidate quality, our values, broadening the tent, and where we are on issues.

I mean, the 2012 platform for the Republican Party was a national platform. The direction it's going with Project 46 is just not a national party platform. You mean Project 2025? Well, he's so Trump's official is Agenda 46. But Project 2025, that's a I mean, you're not going to get 30 percent of the country on Project 2025.

I see. I see. I didn't even know that they refer to it as Project 46. He's got his own little thing out there. It's really just lines of platitudes. It's not long reading if you want to check it out. I see. Okay. Well, one thing we know is that we have quality hacks on this show, and you are right at the top of the list.

Alyssa Farrow Griffin, I so enjoy spending evenings with you on CNN. And I look forward to doing that a lot in the next six weeks. I look forward to spending election week with you. We'll bring our sleeping bags. Yes, yes, yes. We can have toasted marshmallows and campfire. Thank you for having me. It's a privilege to be on. Thanks.

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