Poller Coaster (with Alyssa Farah Griffin)
2024/9/24
Hacks On Tap
A
Alyssa Farah Griffin
D
David Axelrod
M
Mike Murphy
Alyssa Farah Griffin: 特朗普不会放弃7000万观众的辩论机会，即使他声称自己赢了上次辩论，他也知道自己输了，所以他会参加下一次辩论。哈里斯也需要辩论，来吸引那些需要更多了解她的人。
Mike Murphy: 如果他负责特朗普的竞选，他不会相信特朗普会参加辩论。媒体对民调的报道过于绝对化，尤其是不一致的民调结果。不要每天都过度关注民调结果，因为不同的民调方法会产生不同的结果。一项民调显示哈里斯在一些方面领先，例如被视为变革候选人。
David Axelrod: 哈里斯在非裔美国选民中的支持率高于拜登，但仍有一些选民尚未争取到。媒体民调存在问题，因为新闻机构可能会选择成本较低的民调结果来报道。哈里斯在辩论中取得的进展部分归功于社交媒体上的病毒式传播。哈里斯在多个方面占据优势，如果她能成功塑造自己为变革候选人形象，她就能赢得选举。
Deep Dive
David Axelrod and Mike Murphy analyze the recent polls following the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. They discuss the volatility of polling data and the potential impact of social media on voter perceptions, particularly among younger demographics.
- Polls following the debate show significant swings, with some suggesting a 10-point shift in Arizona.
- Social media, particularly the viral "dogs and cats" song mocking Trump, is playing a significant role in shaping public opinion, especially among younger voters.
- There's a disparity in social media spending between the campaigns, with the Harris campaign having a significant advantage.
Shownotes Transcript