What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why is there a 21% chance that Matt Gaetz gets confirmed as attorney general?
The odds reflect concerns over Gaetz's past controversies, including a House Ethics Committee investigation into sex trafficking allegations. However, Republican senators may still confirm him to avoid crossing Trump.
Why did the stock prices of vaccine makers fall after Trump announced RFK Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
RFK Jr.'s stance on vaccinations and his intent to examine government vaccine safety data likely caused market uncertainty and investor concern.
Why might Elon Musk be out from the Department of Government Efficiency in under six months?
Both Musk and Trump are strong personalities used to control, which could lead to conflicts. Additionally, some in Trump's inner circle are reportedly annoyed by Musk's presence.
Why did consumer sentiment among Democrats fall after the election?
Democrats' sentiment dropped as they faced the reality of a second Trump administration, erasing almost two years of gains in economic sentiment.
Why did Fox News' primetime audience increase after the election?
Fox News likely benefited from viewers seeking information and reaction to the election results, aligning with their expectations and preferences.
Why did the financial sector see the largest jump in the S&P 500 after the election?
Wall Street anticipates that the Trump administration will relax regulations on banks and financial service companies, leading to increased investor confidence in that sector.
Why do young voters and Republicans rely more on friends and family for political decisions?
Young voters and Republicans are more likely to trust personal discussions with friends and family as their primary source of political information, reflecting a preference for interpersonal influence over media sources.
Why do Americans expect Trump to accomplish more in his second term?
Americans, particularly those who voted for Trump, likely believe he will fulfill his campaign promises, leading to higher expectations for his second term.
Why has optimism about electing a woman president declined?
Pessimism has grown across all groups, possibly due to recent political dynamics and the outcomes of the 2016 and 2024 elections, which may have influenced public perceptions.
- Trump is announcing his cabinet picks and the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus.
- Data reveals expectations of consumers, Wall Street traders, and online bettors.
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