The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why are the final polls showing a close race between Harris and Trump?
The polling averages indicate a close race due to small margins separating the candidates in key swing states. However, these averages suggest a probabilistic close race rather than a definitive one, meaning the outcome could still swing significantly in either direction.
What are the concerns about herding among pollsters?
Herding concerns arise when pollsters intentionally align their results with existing averages to avoid being outliers. This practice can distort the true picture of voter sentiment and reduce the variability that is crucial for understanding shifts in the electorate.
How does the Seltzer Iowa poll differ from other polls?
The Seltzer Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by three points, which is an outlier compared to other polls showing Trump ahead. This discrepancy could indicate a significant shift in Iowa or suggest methodological differences in how pollsters are adjusting their models post-2020.
What insights does the Seltzer poll provide about voter trends?
The Seltzer poll suggests potential shifts among white voters and older demographics towards Harris, indicating a closer race in Iowa than in 2020. It also highlights a significant gender gap and strong support among independent women, which could be indicative of broader trends.
How do the New York Times' final battleground polls compare to earlier ones?
The final New York Times polls show a slight shift towards Harris in the Sun Belt states and a tightening in the Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania. This contrasts with earlier polls that indicated a stark divide between these regions, suggesting a more competitive race overall.
What impact might the early voting data have on the election outcome?
Early voting data indicates a higher turnout among women, which could benefit Harris, especially given the increased salience of the abortion issue. However, caution is needed as this trend may not be sufficient to overcome other motivating factors for Trump supporters.
What are the key demographic trends Mary Radcliffe is interested in observing post-election?
Mary Radcliffe is keen to see if trends observed in 2022, such as shifts in traditionally reliable states like New York and California, continue into 2024. These trends could reshape the electoral landscape in future elections.
- Less than a point separates Harris and Trump in key swing states.
- Polling averages suggest a probabilistic close race rather than a definitive one.
- Concerns about herding among pollsters and the impact of methodological choices.
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