The Most Valuable Data Point
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why are Gen Z male voters a key data point for understanding the election?
Gen Z men, or 'Trump bros,' are showing a significant shift towards Trump, potentially flipping crucial battleground states.
Why is the 'perceptions of power' metric important for Black voters?
Higher perceptions of power directly correlate to higher turnout, making it a critical factor in predicting Black voter participation.
Why are college-educated women shifting towards Republicans?
The broadening conversation around immigration and its perceived impact on physical safety is driving this shift.
Why is the 'policy impact' question valuable for understanding voter sentiment?
It reveals how voters perceive the direct effects of Trump's and Harris's policies on their lives, aligning closely with the horse race.
Why is turnout a crucial data point in this election?
A surge in Trump voters and a hard-earned surge for Harris among key demographics could determine the winner in a dead-even race.
Why are 'double haters' still relevant in this election?
Despite fewer double haters than in 2016, their decisive vote in a tight election could still be pivotal.
Why is 'information flow' a critical data point in the final weeks?
It measures how media coverage affects voter sentiment, potentially shifting momentum in a close race.
Why is the Senate gap between presidential and Senate races important?
It suggests a potential similarity to the 2022 midterms, where Democrats performed better in key states, potentially indicating a different turnout pattern.
- 11 experts were asked to identify one data point they find most valuable.
- The election is approaching, and data overload is intensifying.
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