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cover of episode Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?

Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?

2024/9/23
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Early voting data provides insights into voter turnout, but its predictive power is limited due to changing access, evolving voter behavior, and the potential for misleading interpretations.
  • Early voting has increased significantly in recent decades.
  • Democrats tend to vote early more than Republicans.
  • Experts prefer high-quality polls over early voting data for predictions.

Shownotes Transcript

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber.

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