How The Polls Did In 2024
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why did pollsters breathe sighs of relief after the 2024 election?
Polls were less error-prone in 2024 compared to 2016 and 2020, with state-level polling being the most accurate in at least 25 years.
What was the average polling miss in the 2024 election?
The average polling miss was 2.7 percentage points nationally and 2 percentage points in battleground states, significantly better than the 4 percentage point average over the past 25 years.
Why might pollsters have underestimated Trump's support in the 2024 election?
Pollsters might have faced non-response issues among Trump supporters, a problem that has persisted since 2016 and 2020.
Which polling method performed the best in 2024?
River sampling, which drives people to answer polls through social media ads, had the lowest bias and error.
Why did some pollsters choose to weight by past vote in 2024?
Weighting by past vote was seen as a way to ensure a proper mix of past Trump and Biden voters, though it's not clear if this method will be effective in future elections with different candidates.
What challenges do pollsters face with low response rates?
Low response rates force pollsters to model the electorate, making all polls essentially models rather than representative samples.
How did polls perform in measuring subgroup movements in the 2024 election?
Polls did a good job showing movement among Black and Latino voters towards Trump and among young voters, though some overestimated movement among Black voters and underestimated among Latinos.
Are live phone polls still considered the gold standard?
While some pollsters still value live phone polls, the rise of new methods like river sampling suggests that the gold standard may be shifting to more innovative approaches.
What should people take away from the 2024 polling results?
All polls are now models due to low response rates, and there is no longer a single gold standard method. Instead, there are good pollsters who use effective modeling techniques.
Are pollsters optimistic about the future of gauging public opinion?
Yes, pollsters are optimistic as polls continue to provide valuable insights into public opinion and democratic processes, despite the challenges posed by low response rates.
- Polls were less error-prone in 2024 compared to 2016 and 2020.
- State-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years.
- Polls underestimated Trump's support for the third consecutive election.