cover of episode From Here To Election Day

From Here To Election Day

2024/9/5
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Chapters

Historically, polls have shifted by an average of seven percentage points between Labor Day and Election Day. However, in more recent elections since the 1980s, the volatility has decreased to around three and a half percentage points. In the 2000s, it's been closer to two and a half percentage points.
  • Since 1948, the margin between candidates in state polling averages has moved by about 7 points after Labor Day.
  • Since the 1980s, the volatility has been closer to 3.5 percentage points.
  • In the 2000s, the volatility is more like 2.5 percentage points.

Shownotes Transcript

Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices)