Do Voters Care About Democracy?

2024/10/28

FiveThirtyEight Politics

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript

People

Elliot Morris

Galen Druk

Mary Radcliffe

Topics

Galen Druk：本期节目讨论了美国选民对特朗普破坏民主规范行为的关注程度，以及一项针对年轻男性的民调结果。民调显示，距离大选还有不到一周时间，选情依然胶着。提前投票数据虽然可能显示趋势，但容易被误读，应谨慎解读。对2024年大选民调的分析表明，人们不应对民调行业过于悲观。一项研究表明，只有3.5%的受访者会因为候选人的反民主行为而改变投票意向，但这并不意味着只有3.5%的美国人关心民主。1月6日事件及其相关事件对选民的影响可能超过3.5%。哈里斯在最后时刻将竞选策略重点转向特朗普的危险性，这是一种争取选民投票的策略。特朗普和哈里斯都积极参与播客节目，以争取年轻男性选民的支持。 Mary Radcliffe：提前投票数据本身就证明了应该谨慎解读的观点，因为投票模式随着时间推移而变化。2024年大选民调的质量可能高于以往几个周期，原因包括：更多民调由非党派机构赞助；具有民调机构评级的民调平均评级较高；由党派赞助的民调比例较低。民调显示，年轻男性对美国的看法悲观，这表明强调保护美国民主的竞选信息可能对他们无效。 Elliot Morris：哈里斯在“可能投票者”样本中长期领先，在竞争激烈的州中优势更大，这可能暗示着2022年观察到的趋势：在竞争最激烈的州，人们的投票方式或投票率可能与非竞争州不同。根据模型预测，特朗普赢得全国普选票而哈里斯赢得选举团票的可能性小于1%。在2020年大选的最后一周，民调结果发生了变化，这表明在最后几天选情可能发生重大变化。将3.5%的数字解读为只有3.5%的美国人关心民主是错误的，该研究表明，只有3.5%的受访者会因为研究中测试的特定反民主行为而改变投票意向。这项研究表明，更多人会因为象征性的民主行为而改变投票意向，而不是因为实际的民主规范。研究中测试的反民主行为相对轻微，人们可能不会将其视为对民主的严重威胁。1月6日事件对选民的影响可能随着时间的推移而减弱，因为人们可以找到理由来为与其政策立场相符的候选人投票。社会政策、经济政策和党派认同对投票的影响远大于对民主原则的认同。如果一个政党将反民主态度融入其意识形态，那么反民主言论对选民的影响就会减弱。哈里斯在椭圆形广场发表演讲，可能是一种吸引选民注意力的策略，而非改变竞选信息的核心内容。民调显示，哈里斯在民主问题上比特朗普更有优势，这为哈里斯的竞选策略提供了支持。民调显示，年轻男性对两大主要政党的忠诚度不高，对两党的政策都有不满。民调显示，奥巴马在年轻男性群体中拥有很高的支持率，这与当前的政治叙事有所不同。年轻男性的投票率通常较低，这可能会影响最终的选举结果。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Democrats seize on John Kelly's comment about Trump being a fascist?

To underline Trump's anti-democratic tendencies in the final days before Election Day.

What is the significance of the new poll discussed in the podcast?

It aims to understand the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.

Why is the early vote data tricky to interpret?

It can show trends that may be reversed on election day itself.

What does the early vote data suggest about voter behavior?

Voters are changing their behavior compared to 2020, with some delaying their early vote.

Why might a late-breaking October surprise or early November surprise change the polls?

Events like these can move the race by two to four points in the final days.

What did the analysis of the polling landscape reveal?

The number of polls has slightly decreased since 2016, but the quality might be higher due to more nonpartisan sponsors.

Why is the 3.5% number from the Yale study misleading?

It only accounts for specific minor anti-democratic behaviors, not broader concerns like January 6th.

How does the podcast bro voter differ from the Liz Cheney voter?

The podcast bro voter is younger, more disillusioned with both parties, and reached through different media sources.

Why might young men be less likely to vote in this election?

They are disillusioned with both major parties and have historically lower turnout rates.

Chapters

The podcast discusses the impact of Trump's anti-democratic behavior on voter sentiment, referencing a poll that suggests only 3.5% of Americans would change their vote based on such behavior.

Retired General John Kelly called Trump a 'fascist'.
A Yale study found only 3.5% of voters would switch their vote due to anti-democratic behavior.
The study also found that 12% would defect from their party if the candidate was anti-democratic.

Shownotes Transcript

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day.

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.

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Do Voters Care About Democracy? 36:38 Share