An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why is Florida expected to report election results faster than other states?
Florida has a law requiring all early and mail-in ballots to be reported within 30 minutes of polls closing, which led to 90% of votes being counted by 9 p.m. in 2020.
What should voters watch for in Pennsylvania to gauge the election outcome?
Voters should monitor Philadelphia (Wayne County), Pittsburgh (Allegheny County), and suburban counties around Philadelphia like Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware. Additionally, Erie County and Northampton County are considered bellwethers.
Why might we see shifts in vote totals throughout the night in states like North Carolina and Georgia?
Early votes, which tend to be more Democratic, will report first, followed by Election Day votes, which are likely more Republican. The last votes to count will be absentee ballots, which could shift totals back toward the Democratic candidate.
Why are exit polls not reliable indicators early in the evening?
Early exit polls are incomplete and not weighted to the final election results, making them less accurate. They can shift significantly as more data comes in and are weighted to match final vote counts.
What are the key counties to watch in Michigan for early signs of the election outcome?
Wayne County (Detroit), Oakland and Macomb counties (suburbs around Detroit), and Kent County (Grand Rapids) are crucial. Wayne County may report late due to technical issues, while Kent County is a swing county with a history of moving toward Democrats.
Why might Arizona and Nevada take longer to report election results compared to other states?
Both states vote predominantly by mail, and mail ballots take longer to count and process than in-person votes. Additionally, Nevada doesn't release results until every voter in line has voted, which can delay reporting.
What are the key counties to watch in Arizona and Nevada for early signs of the election outcome?
In Arizona, Maricopa County (Phoenix and suburbs) and Pima County (Tucson) are crucial, accounting for over 75% of the vote. In Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) are key, making up nearly 90% of the state's vote.
Why might the 2024 election results be clearer earlier than the 2020 election?
There is cautious optimism that polling errors or significant shifts in voter behavior could provide clarity sooner. However, close races in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania may still require counting into Wednesday or Thursday.
- Election Day is a significant day for the hosts, marked by personal excitement and anticipation.
- The episode aims to provide an hour-by-hour guide to election night, focusing on key states and counties.
Shownotes Transcript