Closing Bell 11/11/24
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Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome the closing bell on Scott walking life from post nine here, the new york stock exchange. This make a break up begins with the full market and whether a significant move hired is really now in the cars will ask car expert over this final stretch. In the meantime, the score card was sixty minutes ago, and regulation looks like this bit of a breather the day, at least for the S.

N. P. And the nazca. Russia, though, is the outperforming. IT has been all day long.

NASA has been the leg, but there's a rusal of me here, one and a half cent. What about tesla? It's remarkable run continuing today.

That stock getting nearly forty percent since election day and bit point eighty five thousand is the new number eighty six. Now actually just shows you what that has done as well. The so called truck trade rolling on IT does take us to our talk of the tape. What is in store for this record setting rally askar panel try various adam Parker, jp Morgane asset management scavo a santos and Robin hood stephany guilt at am a cc bc contributor, everybody, as you can tell us that post in today, Gabriela comes to you first because haven't heard from you since the election seemingly changed kind of everything in this market. How should we view what's taking place in what we think could still happen?

So we're just putting our a pencils down here in our year ahead outlook. And coming into the election, we were calling IT uh, out of the policy, uh, are out of the cyclical storm. So really this idea that before this we have been talking about the economy Normalizing, rates Normalizing, earnings growth Normalizing and it's just being kind of about rebalancing portfolios.

Now we've tweet that title to be out of the cyclicals storm and into the policy fog. I do think up until the end of the year, markets are going to a continue to cheer this removal of the actual election result and certainty. But then into next year, all about the three asses, what's the scope of policy? What's the sequencing of various policy measures? And of course, what's the starting point here in terms of valuations in the economy?

Is a really a policy fog? Or is their clarity now because we know that former president trump s soon to be president again, wants to re up the tax cuts. He's gonna everything in his power. He's going to think that's going to just stimulate more growth.

I think that there are still quite a lot of questions around the scope in the sequencing. So what exactly is the scope of these tax cuts? Is that just extending the T C J A caring provisions that's one scenario? Or is IT adding on top of that additional corporate and individual tax cuts? And that matters in terms of projections for the deficit.

Economic growth and inflation enhances rates across the curve. There is also this big, big question of tariffs, right? What exactly is the scope of vivers? Is what's been proposed? And is that something that this new administration starts to implement right away? Or is that maybe something that uses a negotiating chip? And hence, you have more limited impacts on inflation, the dollar and rates .

defining what you be.

I actually in the markets will continue to rally right at the door of what I thought was a twenty percent probability of getting to six thousand on the S M P. Um right now though, you know, I think we could get to maybe six, sixty, three hundred over the next three to six months. But actually a little more positive on mid caps rather than large caps, mostly because play Better valuations, not as risky from a higher interest rate environment that you can see in small caps. Um so you know I guess there is a policy a issue may be coming, coming, but I think the biggest of watching for that is the direction of interest strates because that could really slow down the economy.

Much of the goal post move in, in the last five, five days or so has an even Better a week since you we knew the results. But I mean, have the goal post really move that significantly because the market is clearly it's bad that the answer to that question is yes. yeah. I mean, if everything .

is the distribution of outcomes, the distribution got shifted to the more bowed side with the biggest difference in my mind being the spector more ema. Um when you saw the ema firms have a huge day wednesday and beyond.

continuing strongest group today, it's the banks. It's P E firms. It's all the ones who play right into the .

White you talk rote to kick. Are they want to me that incremental we have quints. We saw our content to law firms and board and man with times the converse, as you know, and they are super busy.

Um I mean, people are not you know planning not have an a good thanksgiving, you know in terms of like wasting time that people are very busy trying to figure out and they close deal. There's a lot in the pipeline. So that's a little bit of a maybe frosting on the cake of the bulcke that maybe wasn't in the bull case a week or two ago.

And I think once you see some mid caps get taken and small caps, IT brings up the valuation for stuff in the same industry. And that's kind of how you get a bit of a more boss ero. What we rode our note sunday was a cell inauguration.

I mean, everyone's univerSally bosh on now to the end of the year. And at some point, maybe you do have to get a little bit of you know clarity on what some of the policies can be, what IT really means for earnings out two, three years. But I do think for now, the balls are in charge.

That's the been the thought, right? You have sort of a free pass, if you will, from election day to inauguration day. And then maybe all bets are off a little while once we get through the mud of policy making.

And all of that stuff, which comes with some in un. do. And I known .

and and I do think investors do, will have a little bit to chew on here in terms of policy, in terms of some of these cabinet and advisory appointments and nominations, right? So is on who's going to be the treasury secretary, who's going to be at U. S, T, R.

At commerce. Sense some signs, but yes, probably through election day, there is a little bit more of a less of a focus on the policy. And for us, we are still quite bullish when IT comes to the actual equities and corporate credit environment, where I think the outlook particularly change is much more fixed income and effects.

So we had expected interest in volatility to come down. Now it's likely to remain elevated across the curve. We had expected the dollar to continue to weaken. Now it's probably going to stay elevated and volatile versus for equities unless there's truly a massive scope of tariff increases next year. I think that still an environment can move higher.

How do you think your, your, your user, I I should say Stephanie, average thirty four, is now thinking about the investing horizon moving forward. Let's not forget that Robin hod obviously has a Younger skill in investor base. So these policies are going to have outsized the impacts on certain groups over another in the running way of their investment horizon.

if you will, there.

I mean, they've always thought long term, like if you look at what they own and investing, it's been things that don't actually work in one given moment or another but do have this long trajectories. So electric vehicle names across the board, tesla being the top one, has been owned for a long time. And that ownership we really started to see pick up, especially around the election. They just tend to take a higher term a longer .

term horizon. And the robbin hood White house in in in some respects. And you guys have new products to um to to be more of reach out to to that investor. We're talking about stuff like that, maybe a little more speculative assets too. I mean, yes.

And i'd say on the margin, like they all have these core positions that they invest in. And there are the things that they know and use every day, like apple is practical utility company for this generation. And so they're investing in those in the need. What they tend to do is sell when things go up quite a bit and then you know buy back in when there's a dep, for example, in the via is perfect stock for that from here and there. And so they do take this long term um you know views and and i'm much for the election, so much changes that is really just reinforce that their positioning was good.

at least for now. You put forth the idea the other day that I mean you could have S N P earnings double, I think over the next five years. IT wasn't like twenty years from now, right? IT was like the next five years. And that, you know, the S N P could be at what what was your number .

was like ten thousand? thirty? A little? Yeah, that up that that seem possible because I think you could get above Normal growth if you really get productivity .

from from from a high the point point and with the you hoped for from his administration policies that will lead to a higher level of growth, thus you can maybe grow your way out. You're going to hear a lot about that, right? We're not we can redo the tax cuts and we can maybe cut them even further.

We're not so concerned about the deficit because we can grow our way out of troubles, so to speak. If you can get nominal GDP up to a level where you can do that, you're probably gone to hear a lot about that. Does that mean that the markets going to be less concerned with elevated interest rates, particularly on the longer end as we think about what the deficit is going to be in mean?

Yeah two things. One is um that goal post, you know I don't do a rates, I do equity, but that goal post my whole career has moved. I remember ten years go through three percent, ten years the whole markets screw and then it's three half.

But like that moves if the economy strong, the lawing can back up things to be fine. Some point I think people will say, you know, you ve got a lot of high worth individuals say, alright, seven percent of the ten year almost come over. But I think we're pretty far short of that.

I think there's five or six years and I grow a way above GDP. It's A I M is it's like software. It's housing and building materials.

It's electrification and industry is power and utilities. It's health conservation like suck. There's a lot of growth area. So I spent a lot of time with.

Investors trying think about how core later those growth teams are to make sure they are diversified across them. But I think there's lots of things to be optimistic. They're onna grow above GDP ali. I don't think the politics really affect the three and five year growth, three of those businesses I just listed off.

And so they are overall, overall, you can have a growth though rising tide lifts most, if not all.

but and that should be good for equally generally thing worry about. And you see this party more than I do day to day is a year two ago through a lot more cautious cross asset types when the market was forty percent lower and now that kind of shifting to be a little bit more optimistic. So I got to keep eye sentiment in the consensus. But I think for now um the spector of what's say four hundred and twenty five, four hundred and twenty and twenty thirty and pay low twenty times and a ten thousand and seems cause the base case to me and you know smoke can pay only so I think it's .

okay yeah would you think about that notion? I don't know. I don't know. You go investigate that. You let us .

know is Robert? no. Is that .

a product I is .

t have good.

I think .

every please rescue book.

I think what when he comes to raise is important to think about why would they be moving higher and where to. So in terms of the why, if IT is a good mix of higher growth in here, primarily coming from higher real economic growth and yields, ds move higher, but they kind of settle around where they are, four point three percent, then no reason for alarm for equity.

I think some of the policy that we're talking about next year and they're being a bit of a fog, is whether that growth starts to shift a little bit more towards inflation again. And here talk about tariffs primarily um and as a result, whether rates move up because inflation break evens s are moving higher um maybe the deficit also plays into that. And then we start to test the five percent ceiling that we had gotten close to in the midst of next year or so to be determined. But unfortunate interest ate volatility still very much front and center next year for longer.

Think that too.

I think we're in the fourth soft landing ings since one thousand nine hundred and sixty because we were we start the fed starting to cut rates because inflation started coming down. I think margins were allowed to impress. Like if you look back at the last couple of years and even expectations of the future is that capex growth was higher than sales growth in the S M P.

Five hundred companies. And when you have something like that, that means there's greater R N D, and there should be greater growth. So in many ways, I agree, but I do think interest strates matter and they will matter at some point. And I think the bomb in atlantic could come out again if the deficit you doesn't get dealt t with at some point. I mean, it's one point.

I I think if it's strong growth that cause ten to back up, I think everything can work. If IT is the bond majority that that's a different scenario I would agree with. I think for now.

Look, you know you have you talked about really Young thirty four. I know I know there are some large private that works for their average financial or sixty five and their average quite sixty nine and really just depends on the mixed cite space. But if you're sixty nine year, I know worth guy, twenty million box at seven seven percent ten years or six half, you might move a few million over.

But any any introducing investor I talk to who does actually thinks they can be five percent or they can get out a bit every day. So I don't think five percent really changes the algal that much. Uh, ferpa, ross, asian guys. So I think the market could be fine at five percent ten years.

the words six thousand even as I ask this question. I mean, how much Adams you think I mean, how much of a rap do you think we could have between down the of the year? What seems reasonable? There's a target that went up today of sixty two hundred IT was somebody who has been chasing a IT was open hamer.

They raised if like the third time. So you've got chasers on both sides. Yeah, you have chasers on the sell sides.

You have chastened investors or chasing. Everybody seems to think that this markets got legs. We look back over .

the last ninety eight years. We had dated in thousand nine hundred and twenty six, and we looked at years the mark was up strong. We january first or october thirty first, twenty percent of more during those years.

And it's a very high hit rate when the markets of that much he continues to do well. In november, december, you add on this republican sweep and the speaker more so the boss is unfolding. The empirical evident says usually you're rally in other five percent plus during that type.

I now we ve already had that five percent november, so it's hard to tell. But IT feels like you to be above average this time, sixty, three hundred years to a few percent higher. That seems pretty, pretty reasonable to me. I am worried. And people i've talked to last couple of days are more trying to figure out to just get kind of a nasty rotation in january like we had in january twenty thirty. If you remember, the best show I did you could have had we're metta and in video in two thousand twenty two, and then you had to get max long on gen first day of trading and twenty three old people trying to figure out, do I trim a little in december in in case we get a rotation? We will see its a little early for people to start doing that, but I wouldn't be shocked .

if we have a different conversation in three weeks. We protracted that a under performance for mega cap as long as we're sitting here talking about way above trend growth possibilities, is that the trade that's gonna a suffer the most because you're just gonna try and make IT up elsewhere, whether it's you mid caps is a stephney lights or or small caps or whereever outside of the mega caps.

And I think the parallel to me is also this time last year, right, we had a really powerful rotation november, december there was that catalyst, the fed finally signalling um that there was truly the end of the right hiking campaign and maybe this can be the catus strait um the removal of that election and certainty and from the list of policy items that we've been talking.

If you look much more at the value sector, if you look much more to meet small caps, those are ones that benefit much more from the constructive items on the policy agenda when IT comes to deregulation or when IT comes to at least being insulated from some of those terrible issues are down the market caps spectrum. So the outlook for equities hasn't changed much as we've gotten more conviction that you can continue to see this bring out, not because economic growth is going to pick up, but because you finally have a catalyst. And we're continuing to see earnings for the rest of the market come out of two very bad years for earnings contraction.

It's easy to sit here when almost everything theoretically ally has has been going up since the election, say, well, like this, and I like that, this, that and everything's gone up. You feel great. You look good with the calls to that.

Every everybody has has made, what about what? What do you like? Which the area now that maybe has changed for the worst.

Well, for me, actually, I think small caps have a lot of expectations already built into. I made a call in june actually, first, small caps, and I think now with the rally post election is starting to look a little bit like a lot of things are built into IT. A lot of growth is built into IT for twenty twenty five earnings expectations or forty percent earnings growth expectations.

So that's why I kind of was preferred my cap over small cap as I feel like it's sort of the middle child that gets like forgotten. But it's it's actually a perfect place to be from an evaluation perspective but also from an earnings s growth perspective. Uh, but I also have been very negative on bonds in general, like any duration I just have .

not liked yeah how would you ensure that what's like to stay away .

or watch .

up for physical retail still .

hasn't change? terrible. I mean, at the estimates, won't a prove to go up as much as people think? Um I think the banks, the small ones that don't benefit from memory and transaction maybe up a little bit too much that maybe a little bit of a okay, i'm that is less regulation and the rate environments Better, but i'm playing IT pretty far above tangible for all these things now.

So I want exposure that wants to benefit from the transactions. So the more instantly or something, but I don't know why I need own some of these regionals that trade and they're up a lot. So I mean.

all of the stuff that ripped what you want to give erg for first under trump the first time? yes. Now there's you know, it's always like idiot s ncrs tic things that happened that that cause those types of performance. But should we expect something different this time? And if so, why?

I don't know why. If we're going to if the perception for the current moment is that were going to be more liberal, supply IT would be bad for pricing and those stocks don't act when Prices go down. So I don't think you want to be over way to time and energy or gas at the current moment. We've market wait in the sp, which is only a few percent, but I I don't see why that would mass we our performance until we get more clarity on how much .

will supply a higher growth.

higher demand b, but there is a very high correlation between the change in the oil Price and the change in the next income of the energy sector that people think it's going .

to be an apple supply. See what people and the you do, but right, expected.

Obviously, the meg caps two on a bit more.

I handle that question, do you like?

So for me, the biggest change when IT comes to this translation of higher rate, stronger dollar is thinking about non us equities. And I think before the election, there was some vacant momentum and flows going into your more cyclical ical parts of the international markets, specifically here. I'm thinking about china in europe.

I think at this point, the uncertainty around terrace and around how much really chinese stimulus can offset some of that uncertainty. And that actual perhaps implementation to me, IT really changes the outlook p within international to focus again much more on the structural. More insulated stories in here to me. IT really stands out .

india in japan. All right, we will leave IT there. definitely. Thank you. Gabriel and adam as well, all people. Steve is now for look at the biggest names moving into the close.

He's got bitcoin in topping eighty seven thousand for the first time ever as the post election rally continues, with president elect Donald trump and other procrustes of candidates said to take office. Bacon has climbed about twenty nine percent since the election and is more than doubled this year, and shares of block are up after pyper slr assumed to coverage of the stock at overweight with an eighty three dollar Price target.

Analysts said they are impressed by the company's margins and expect T. T to benefit from a continued shift to electronic payments shares, also getting a lift from post election enthusiasm for payment stocks and block is up eleven percent. Scott.

I. Piper, thank you. Paper Stevens, we're just getting started here up next, driving in the fast lane.

Tesla shares, as I said at the top, searching more than forty percent the past week alone. Star analyst Daniel is here. He has a new title.

He's going to give us his new views. He thinks. Texas, just getting started. I'll make this case next.

C, N, B, C, has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Walk back tesla shares popping get again today, continuing to add to that post election. Pop my next gas calling president elect trumps Victory equal game changer for the evy maker. He's raised this Price target now to four hundred dollars from three hundred.

Join me now, post nine is wet bushes. Then I ve, he is now the global head of technology research. A new title, fatty, new title to go with your jacket. welcome. congrats. thanks.

right? So why is the game change on the obvious of what people have seen thus far? This what is a new and cosy relationship now between president elect trump and neon mosque?

Yeah, I think it's really it's the autonomists piece. I mean, you can full self driving, autonomous, I could argue the most, undervalue A I play in the market today and I think autonomous cyber cab in the timing, I think he get accelerated two to three years. And that's important in terms of from some of the parts, the stock that could had a trillion hours evaluation alone. And you could be looking at twenty thirty percent more revenue per year that you even .

today think two trillion dollar evaluation over the next twelve, the eighteen months. Reasonable, I think .

conservative potentially if they actually execute on the vision that I see such terms automated and A I but really, it's more about that software penetration with in texas from an F, S D perspective, IT changes the whole business .

model i'm trying to think of. So they have less than ten percent market here in china, correct? Byd got like a third. A demand for evs is already sort of slow, slowing globally. So if you have A A pick up in terms, and you have what is a more protracted trade war, what does that do to text less prospects in china?

There is one big x variable. The bet for the ages part, the, I think the bet for the ages for mosque was back on trump because he is going to have a significancy the table. And that comes to the china tarifa.

I think especially on the AI trade, I fully expect their be car bouts relative to tesla in an apple when IT comes to any short title of back and forth. And I think within china, mosque has been nature, ten percent politician, ninety percent CEO. China just had a record quarter. If you look back, I I just i'm not of the belief that china's is going to be a huge head when I think overall, this is a game changer for the story. When you look at I think over the next time.

is there any spreading yourself too thin risk? You know, I mean, guys run in like all sorts of stuff and now he's got a foot and half in the is going to have a foot in a half in the oval office when everybody wants .

IT be an essential whisper, really a strategic adviser for trump. I mean, it's going to just put another short of balancing act for him between space ex has a born company and others. But but my view here is that investors will take that because must having a strategic view and the strategic I then essentially chair in the White house is significant for AI.

It's for autonomous. But most importantly, the biggest regulatory issue that dave had to navigate from an autonation prospector. A lot of that now starts to dissipate, and that's a key part of value I ultimately look at this is unlocking a trillion dollars of value test A I.

simply because of Donald trump win something.

because of trump s in, because trump win changes the whole game. For mask, for test of, for autonomous, for F, S, D. The two have the on states, this is not going to be, you know, one hundred percent smooth road, but this is a much different stock. And IT was a week ago with trump in the White.

Is, is there any risk whatsoever? I am, I know. I mean, I ask you this this is I kind of doubs advocate. I don't know what the likelihood any there actually is, but is there any race whatsoever of a larger role, bigger than forever ene within the administration to where he would potentially be a seller of stock?

sure. So I I don't see that musk is gonna take a formal cabin. A position will call my an A I.

He's gona create me. He's gonna a be very strategic, I think, in in very key aspects on t on taps, on AI. But I don't see any issue from a cabinet perspective selling of stock. And I don't a broader from attack perspective, whether you are in a video investor, apple must having a say in A I in tears when the comes to china, as long as IT seems there's actually a comfort in him, have that scene table for the two or two new year craft. So I mention .

your new title and with that comes with a little bit wider scope of a cover universe now, including in video um how do you see the political debate around selling chips in china? Is their risk around that now more so than ever because of the relationship that trumps gona have with the chinese?

Yeah, I think it's it's a baring chip because trump mask, everyone knows this. Only one game in town. It's in video, right? It's got father by agent in the video.

This is we give them more negotiating power terms of chips into china and it's something that's gonna play out. And you saw the tariff, I think it's had a contained impact on in video. But IT IT continues to be our belief. This is all setting up for a golden age of AI, not just foreign deo, but for broader tech. But it's a bargaining chip as they negotiate with beijing.

What about speaking and negotiate with beijing? What about for company like apple, which is trying to embed, you know, all this new technology around AI? And IT wants to sell a lot of these phones within china. They're obviously not they're not expected to be that open to just allowing anything to be sold in their country. What kind of risk is there around that if there is some escalation between the two countries?

And I think no one understands that Better than cook in terms in the china to the dynamics， I continue to believe they get a strategic partner in china with its body to with is baba that's gonna be called the A I partner for apple and a comes to iphone adventure from seventeen. I think that's why china is gonna be a strength rap.

not a head because you can have a car out for everything, right? Not every single company is going to a have its little car out, which enables what is an acrimonious relationship between china and the us. To just benefit xyz company in this company here at some point, broader, broader policies in this country, you're going to impact big businesses.

No, no doubt. But I think mosque being involved changes the whole landscape. And I think that something where in tech, the reason you have seen tex sell off in terms words about tabs, there's a view must understands in terms of there will be poker moves played, but no poker move was Better than ultimately in betting on trump c because now we're time about something .

that's gonna I think looks like a royal flush he that he he had in his hand lately. And then I got to go in video, what is next week? The earnings right? 啊？ What do you think about this heading in?

Get the popcorn. Get the watch parties ready. I mean, this is gonna a job dropper.

I think stress still under estimate in terms where numbers go over the next one, two years. I think this is one they will battle. But ultimately four trillion mark caps .

on the I leave at their dens title and all comes to o and shares is recited. Thank you. I coming up navigating election pop cities, head of actually trading strategy, he's here to break down his playbook into year and and the two main risks is watching IT could dentist geral the rally closing bells come the right back?

C, N, B, C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I C N B C Jessica adding a follow and listen to C C business news updates wherever you get your pocket.

We are backdoor ccs high off the higher the day, though the down in the rustle. Two thousand are still riding a post election high. The down now on track to close above forty fourth thousand, the first time ever joining me now post nine with this post elections playbook as city head, a big trading strategy.

Stuart, kids are welcomes. Good to see you. Are you as bullish as seemingly everybody else? Yeah.

have feeling pretty good about things. There's a lot of lot of things to like. Number one is you got this big event out of the way, folks and dirty a little big going into the event. Lot of all premium Price. And I think all that coming out, if you're going to be cautious, I just think it's it's the speed of the move you've seen and the potential risk may be spelling over from the bond market.

And we speaking good here for how long does this last to think? And what seems reasonable to you?

I mean, we figured three to five days post elections, you would need to get the positioning in the set of kind of rebalancing. Then from there you're back to the data, right? And and that's what are we getting from U. S.

Economic growth? What are we getting out the fed, how to earn? Kind of wrap up all of those things. IT would just feel like the end of last week, a lot of the position and I cleaned ed up and hopefully we were back to court.

Novel Operation is a reasonable to think now that what certainly felt like to many you too high valuation or at least expensive now needs to be reset in and of itself because now we think we're positioning for a higher level of growth and maybe we expected thus, valuations will be justified if not expanded even further.

Yeah, I think that's really the debate because a lot of people saying twenty, twenty five earnings look maybe a little bit high.

But if you believe the day now.

well, that's the question, I think is do you think you're getting enough of a growth impulse out of the deregulation and sort of the trump policy makes to compensate for what look like? E, P, S, that was a little bit high. And I would say it's hard to say exactly, but I think you people provide a little more comfortable with what learnings number looks like, which to your point, means valuation perhaps less than a chAllenge that I was .

called four weeks ago. Isn't that the baseline bet at this point? What sort of all bets were off before now the baseline bet feels like, you know, the policies that are going to come forward, especially if there is a significant enough margin in the house, which is still to be figured out. But IT looks a red sweep. Doesn't that change a game on the way we look at all that?

Yes, IT does change the game in terms of the girl's outlook. You know the other part of that there is there are parts of trumps sort of policy platform that markets might not necessarily like. So we're gonna to, as I said, once you get the position out of the way now IT get down to brass tax, right? It's what is growth doing, what is the fed doing? What are these actual policies and how of those translate through the growth. But I think to your point, we've the floor has been raised at minimum and potential with the ceiling as well.

Well, the ceiling when you talk about about it's the ceiling in yields and how much of issue is that if we break through the ceiling and we start to get to an uncomfortable level, where's the problem with that? Yeah.

I think I think that's exactly the case. You know, if you like, our view is that is OK would attend your you are rising if that's coming from growth, right? If that yield ds are rising because is coming from deficit or fiscal or that becomes like a very, very different discussion.

And we saw very big rise and long term eels in the term prem going into the election. I know I mean, we are joke. If you have the ten year year, the four seventy five next week, the markets going to you know catch attention.

So IT to us is not necessarily the level with the speed of the move. And I think what happened last week as you had an initial move higher, right, ten, you're got to around ford to half that to move sideways. And when I started to moving sideways, I think that was basically a turn style for rist to go on. And and that's the situation. A rebounds are closed today.

which made IT easier if you want to head against uh, higher yields, which you you obviously think could be a concern.

how would you do IT? We've been looking at like in in the equity world, like T L T puts or something like that, a little that of money you say on on T L T S eo equivalent. So that's one way to do IT.

You can play ravel sector waitings as well. But you know our view is run long core equity have that tail risk hedge if you are concerned about IT. And I think tl is quick and .

easy way to do. You see the since we're talking about if you want to run long equities, like you said, I mean, is the time you're really run long with with small caps finally, you know, to go deep.

hopefully. Yes, I had always funny because people have been wanted to put this broader trade for six or nine months, right? And over the summary, I caught a little bit of a bit on the inflation data and and actually brought eny out of broadway, out of earnings.

IT does feel like this more for one where there particularly because financial and energy is such a big part of small cap. I would say though the think kinds seem most interested in is, yes, only small cap, but owning the profitable high quality small cap. And these people are little hesitates to kind to go wait down the cap structure, but know profitable small cap is a really interesting kind .

of place to deliver, right? How do you like profitable, profitable small cap, a oversea larger cap, which may be more in the cross hairs of of a more serious trade war, again, for .

example, that I mean mean that a sneaky Better for a small cap, right? domestic? That's thinking, yeah exactly. I think financial as well. Financial is cycle, but domestically facing. So I think people do you want to be in that domestically facing cycle place as long as adversary doesn't pop up?

The problem is for like as you said, the regional banks, you're more except table to pain from higher rates. yes. So what benefits you? On one side of the trade kills you. On the other .

is everybody, right? But not. These are the trade, ffs. And over the summer was the same tradeoffs was, I want to be a small cap. But then girls started to slow.

And you will think of you, can I be a small cap if you economic? The soil now was the opposite. I want to be a small cap.

And i'm worry if rich arizon. And I think I think this is back to the y if rich horizon for growth reasons, you want to be a small cap. If that fiscal terror thing is trigger off, then I think you don't want to be a small cap in that environment. And that's why in order you still to careful, here is not all out.

How are you thinking about non traditional asset? I mean, I know you're the equi had a equity trading start. You like bitcoins going crazy and you're gonna have more interest and you you're gonna have a wider investor pool, which now believes that there's something there from somebody that people are already calling the bitcoin president, for example. Yeah.

but we don't look at bitcoin specific. But I would say I put big coin into the same categories, ous gold or other kind of recently ment trees. I mean, you're not only biton most likely unless you're pretty convinced that the the economic growth backdrop is pretty decent or that the policy backdrop is super supportive.

And you are just talking about test before, I know bit only different than test, but these are also trades that you have to have confidence in the policy platform being there behind you, I think to be in there at your point. That's what we all right now. So it's not .

preciate. Thank you very much. So I up next, we tracked the biggest movers closed, but the Stevens is with us once again with that.

However, it's got a healthcare measure is no more and that is sending one stock higher. The name to watch coming up next .

I were less than fifteen from the closing bail back now to pit p. Stevens for a look at the key stocks that she's watching.

Pippo, his god signal is jumping after saying IT will not pursue a merger with rival humana, but did say IT remains committed to with established emini critch only pursuing acquisitions that are strategically aligned, financially attractive and have a high probability to close. Signal also reduces its twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five guidance and shares a sales force hit a record high as the software company reportedly redish to hire one thousand people to sell its gene AI product that's according to bloomberg. Jeffery is also reiterating its by rating and lifting and target to four hundred dollars, noting a pickup in demand, saying that large deals are coming back.

Thank you very much. Pips, Steven, still ahead, grinding higher starbuck shares coffee a day after bullish commentary from the company's CFO bring the details of this free walk back right now with the closing bell markets of cnc senior markets commentator much totally here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day plus cape Rogers on why starbucks are ring the day Julie boys looking ahead of live nation in I A C, earning out in over time. So the rally for the most part continues, though not in every part of the market today.

No, he continues in a similar fashion, which is mostly about rotating toward these perceived, you know, improved growth. A single beneficiaries definitely not been in across the board and discriminated by even from the beginning. And I either you could take that as a good or a bad. It's obviously markets being selective designing about going to work.

The other piece of IT though is this was not a washed out market where you get one of these massive breath moves that create a one soul fulfilling moment that much usually when you're coming off a big correction, but you know is part of the action today. So the cycles continuing to work in the mega capital retreating is this flight from quality? I mean, crowded shorts are getting run out. I mentioned earlier the mean stuff anything that seems like it's got just a real leverage to just high spirits yeah and maybe the bulls asserting their dominant spirits are high places.

I mean, D, J, T, five percent today, up thirty seven percent in a month. We can get the first close above forty four thousand today. We're gonna get that.

Yeah, we haven't. Got to close above six thousand, and we're a few points away. So we will see how we settled .

around with these levels. And I would also point out the russia two thousands, like seven points from a record high, which was set almost exactly three years ago. So that's a long time coming. If we do get a break out, you're gona have some people kind of you banging the pots and pans ds about.

I want to acknowledge the fact that the united states marine core is here to day. On this Better and day, we're surrounded by many service men and women today on what is the two hundred and forty sixth birthday of the marine course. So they are going to be on the podium today here at the new york's stock exchange for the honors. And we salute their service, of course, as I said on on this Better in day. Kate, why did you tell us what's going on with starbucks today?

Hi, Scott. So starbuck shares were up just under three percent today. Best performing stock in the restaurant space. t.

Cowin, out with an update note today after a fireside chat ted hosted with CFO rica Rogerio cutting on brian nickles bacs starbuck td has a buy rating with a Price target of one hundred and ten dollars on the stock. No IT is no Andrew Charles. The analyst route quit.

We get the sense that management is moving with a sense of urgency to improve traffic via improving speed of service and rotating marketing or key tenants of to Polly success during mister nichols tenure. Now reminder, the company did suspended twenty twenty five guidance due to go the CEO change in the business performance earlier this month. Starbuck also announce the hiring of new chief brand officer, trusty liberman, who worked with nick apple, tripodi and talk obel. But they say to take about two quarters for those marketing efforts, truly pay off.

It's got all right. take. Thank you. On the same, David tripoli gets its formal C E. O. Today, too. So this plenty of news on your beat to Julia borstal, who has the earnings coming up on your day.

Thank you that I will go into live nation earnings. Those years have gained about five percent since the over the past week since the election on expectations that a trump administration, we'll give you a higher chance of settling to losted by the D. O. J. Now live nation's revenue expected to decline five percent and earnings for a share to fall more than ten percent once.

And tough comparisons, but eighty seven percent of analysts rate L Y V A by citing robust demand for live events, the expectation of more stadium events in twenty twenty five driving ticket volumes, the opportunity to improve per the modernization, meanwhile, for iac analysis, expected to show at seventeen percent decline in revenue and a much smaller loss than a year ago, twenty two cents per share. I is digital ad division that's married. Dot dash is expected to benefit from Operational improvements in a pretty strong ad market and also to show ongoing chAllenges at its ani division. While investors are going to be looking for indications of where I C plans to deploy its cash, we have an exclusive interview with I, C, C, O joe live in that's coming up closing bell over time. Scott, hi, july.

Good stuff. Thank you. July, boys, we got less than a minute left. Mike, I mean, you get a reprieve today on bone yelled bond market closed obviously for but we're write about fourteen Young to ten years. So we'll see how .

that progresses in. No news is good news. I still think that you have a little bit of room. Let's see you go up to four and a half. I think right now you have the cover story of, hi, everything's happening because growth expectations are going higher. So you can sort of rationalized away the next little bit of bony else, if you so choose for that matter, that also expecting people away back to twenty, twenty five learning investments happened on the decline for while.

Trying to get that first clothes above six thousand with united states. Recall here, we might just .

get up to a lot, about forty four.

six days.

What is a big cold market? C, N, B, C, has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.