Navigating the Trump/Harris Polls with Liz Sheld and Chris Cillizza
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Welcome to another episode of Breaking Battlegrounds with your host, Chuck Warren. I'm Sam Stone.

Jumping right in with our first guest today, Liz Scheldt, senior editor at American Greatness and a political consultant with a wealth of experience. Liz, welcome to the program. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. So what did you think about the Fox interview with Kamala this week?

I thought it was a calamity. Very unfortunate performance by her, but she's consistently done a bad job in the media. I think I'm not sure if it's that she isn't media trained or she hasn't properly come up with answers to the question. I've made this point before that when she goes on these interviews, they kind of know what the questions are going to be ahead of time. They're going to be asked on major issues like foreign

foreign policy. So you prepare an answer for those kinds of questions or on energy issues or on immigration. We all know what are the most important issues in the country. So most candidates would be prepared with a good answer, with some kind of answer. But I find that she...

as of yet, has not been able to come up with good answers for these questions. For a woman who wants to get rid of the filibuster, she sure uses it a lot in interviews. Oh, she's a queen of word salads. Yeah, I mean, she just can't answer the question. For example, when he asks about immigration, she has just said...

We made mistakes. We've learned. It won't happen again. I almost think people would accept that more than saying we did X, Y, Z. Right now, absolutely. Because no one believes it. My favorite part of it is when Fred Bear asks –

When she says to Brett Baer, you and I both know what I'm talking about. And Brett goes, I actually don't. What are you talking about? That was really funny. But I think part of it, too, is that she can't – she's in a tough spot because she can't actually say what her policies are because her policies are actually repugnant.

I mean, we've seen her policies for the last three and a half years. So she can't say, well, my immigration policy is that we just kind of need to let people in the country who want to come here. And that's it, because that is her policy. But she can't say that because that is not a popular policy. And the same on other issues. She can't really say what her policy is. And make no mistake, we know what her policies are. She's been vice president for three and a half years. She's incumbent. So.

So, but Liz, I have to ask, I mean, like fundamentally, right. Obama, when he was giving a lot of these kind of interviews and speeches would also say nothing relevant to his actual policy or what he intended to do, but he at least made it sound semi-coherent.

In watching this, the question I have is how does anybody in this country vote for a presidential candidate who, quite frankly, if they were running for your local school board, you would say they're unprepared? Well, I think part of it is the campaign isn't just about her policies and her. It's a generalization.

against Trump. So she's the default if you're against Trump. And she's been the public's been getting a steady diet of all sorts of anti-Trump rhetoric for, you know, 10 years and almost now. Right. Like a long time. So that's why I think people are supporting her, because she's

She is the not Trump and they don't like Trump more than they're offended by her inability to articulate. I mean, at least Obama was a pretty good politician. And most politicians, they're smooth. They know how to work people. They know how to sound interesting. They know how to seem interesting. And some most of them know how to seem likable. Kamala Kamala doesn't have any of that. And.

And I'll be I'll say this to you. She never really had a competitive political race. No. Where she had to work the streets to get those votes. She never really had to do that. Well, she had that close attorney general race. But she had like 200. Yeah. Yeah. So I like under the one or something like that. It was ridiculous. I mean, I get this. You know, I've said this before to Kylie, who's our producer.

I wonder if she has many female friends. Oh, I don't think she has very many friends at all. No, I don't believe so. Yeah, I don't believe so. She doesn't – she's not relatable. That's one thing Trump does have. People think they don't – wouldn't relate to him if he's so rich and he's kind of out there. But Trump comes off very personable. He's kind of sometimes self-effacing. There's like a –

to it. It's the same with Bill Clinton. People liked Bill Clinton. You know, it seemed like they want to hang out with him. I think it wasn't the metric like, oh, do you want to have a beer with him? Right.

You can see yourself hanging out with Trump. Can you see yourself having a beer or whatever she drinks with Kamala? No. No. No, no, not at all. I would turn that down. I would say no thank you. Yeah, no, I don't want to waste the time. I'd rather go to 7-Eleven and get a Slurpee. Worthless Shield, besides being senior editor of American Greatness and a great political consultant, she also has her own podcast, Happy Hour with Julie and Liz.

All right, Liz, we're out here in Arizona. Sam and I are going to do a pre-election night show, which we may get you back on for that. Tell us what we should be watching in Pacific time zone, if this is going to be the night for Trump or the night for Kamala.

Well, the polls are trending towards Trump now. But they're a flip of a coin, but we're still at a flip of a coin. So what are the key points? Oh, absolutely. Oh, no. Trend is important, but we're still a little over two weeks away. And it's very close. This is going to be there's not going to be a blowout. And I know people think, oh, it's going to be like Mondale. No, it's not. It isn't. It's very close. And it's.

basically comes down to what sequence of swing states are going to go what way. So the race is really, you know, you're in Arizona, so Arizona, Nevada is one of those races, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina possibly. Again, there's certain combinations that have to be hit in order to push it over to one way or the other. And so that's where the eyes are. I mean, we want to start watching –

East Coast, you know, where's Georgia? Where's North Carolina? Where's Pennsylvania? Those are big, big tells. Let me stop you there. If we come out and Trump's – if Trump's doing well in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, would you think it's a fair guesstimate to say that Trump's just going to win all those battleground states?

I don't know because we have like a wild card, which is the mail-in voting. I believe Pennsylvania has extended time, so votes are going to be coming in. And if it's as close as I think it might be, we're talking precinct level, right? Precinct level or geographic level.

Levels within Pennsylvania and there they've got days to count the votes or they're not all in. Plus, even if it's very close, you got overseas votes. You know, it's hard to say. I don't think there's going to be any bellwether. If you remember in 2020, the bellwether plate places did go to Trump and he ended up not winning. So.

or the traditionally accepted bellwether location. There are little towns scattered around the country where people say, oh, this town always predicts how the presidency goes. That didn't pan out. So it's hard to say. I don't know if there's any single or even several. I mean, the margins are going to be so tight that I don't think you can pick a couple places and say, well, if it's doing this way on the East Coast, then I think in the Midwest it's also going to do that. I'm just not...

comfortable with that. It's going to be a nail biter. It's going to be a real nail biter. And it may not be election night. Again, you know, we might go on. When do you think we'll know? Friday? Oh, I don't know. It honestly depends on how the lawsuits go. I mean, everybody's got a bunch of lawyers. There's lawsuits in the system now on different election laws that are happening, cleaning up voter rolls. Everybody's ready for the lawsuits. So

You know, I don't want to go back to 2000. I'm sure you remember when we were Thanksgiving and we didn't know who the president was going to be. You know, it could be like that, I hate to say. It seems like the best thing for the country would be for it to be a decisive victory one way or another. I mean, yes, yes, one way or another. Just be over by Wednesday where we know. Well, Liz, let me ask you this. So there is...

You know, Trump beat Clinton in 2016 with the Catholic vote by four or five. He lost the Catholic vote to Biden by two. Polling shows he's up four now with Kamala. I ask that question is what are some demographic groups that you believe that we need to watch out for that could swing the election? Like you keep hearing about Republicans.

The push for young African-American men. You hear about the Hispanic vote, which, again, the GOP, Sam and I will tell you since we've worked on it some, has woefully underfunded reach out to the Hispanic voters because that is the one area that conservatism can grow on if you put some time into it. So what are some demographic groups you think we should be looking for, how they turn out?

I definitely think Latino males are something you want to keep an eye on. And there's a gender gap, not surprisingly, with Kamala being a woman.

What is a woman? But, you know, a woman and Trump being a man. So we there is a gender gap. But even though there is a gender gap and even though women turn out more than men in elections, Trump is still ahead on that because there are so many males that have kind of switched over to to Trump. So I think Latino males and other and I think I think African-American males as well are not are

are not nearly on board as they have been. And I believe that Trump is going to have historic turnout for both Hispanic and African Americans. And I don't think that's because necessarily of a concerted organized effort by parties or necessarily even third parties. I think the, the proliferation of social media among young people has really had a lot of influence about what they, how much information they know. And in,

And just in general, I believe that Gen Z and some of these younger millennials are very skeptical of institutions. I mean, yes, yes. So, you know, the two party system, so to speak, they don't like it. So they're not going to vote or they're going to vote third party. So I think the youth vote isn't going to be nearly as enthusiastic for her as she thinks it is.

even though they've poured a ton of money into hiring influencers to go on social media and pretend like they're excited that Kamala is the nominee. And free rock concerts, things like that. We've got about a minute and a half left here, Liz. What do you feel is going to happen with the Senate? Do we – I mean, we know we're going to get 51. How do you think our chances are in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin? Yeah.

I don't know about Virginia. That might have more – I want to say it is related to the top of the ticket. So if that goes for Trump, the likelihood increases. However, I will notice that a lot of candidates are –

trend behind Trump. If he's, even if he's winning the state, they're still, they're trending behind him. Um, they're underperforming and it's the opposite. It Democrats where the Democrats are overperforming Kamala in, in, in, in places. So, um,

You know, I don't I don't have any predictions other than it's going to be tight. Yeah. And I don't know if we'll keep the House either. My guess is we for sure. Yeah, I think for sure we have the Senate House flip of the coin presidency flip of the coin. Liz Shield. She is a senior editor at American Greatness. She also has a fantastic podcast. Happy Hour of Liz and Julie. And she's a political consultant. Liz, thanks a million for joining us.

Thanks, Chuck. Thanks, Sam. This is Breaking Battlegrounds. We'll be right back. You can find us at BreakingBattlegrounds.vote. Folks, this is Sam Stone for Breaking Battlegrounds. Discover true freedom today with 4Freedom Mobile. Their SIM automatically switches to the best network, guaranteeing no missed calls. You can enjoy browsing social media and the Internet without compromising your privacy. Plus, make secure mobile payments worldwide with no fees or monitoring. Visit 4FreedomMobile.com today for top-notch coverage.

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Continuing on, our next guest up is Tim Mooney. He is an Arizona-based political consultant, has worked across the country. He is the master of the ballot initiative. Tim, he has an amazing record, Chuck, on ballot initiatives all across this country. He's got a couple of them up here in Arizona. Tim Mooney, thank you for joining us. Welcome to the program. Great to be with you guys. So tell us a little bit about the two ballot initiatives you have here for listeners who may not know all the background of what you're doing.

Great. Thank you. Prop 311 is called Back the Blue. It increases the felony penalties if you physically assault a first responder. First responders include police, fire, EMT, correctional officers, and National Guard if they're under patrol and on duty inside of Arizona.

So wherever the current felony penalty is, it's going to go up one. If it's a class four felony, it becomes a class three. So we're saying is

Don't touch first responders. First responders have become targets. That includes firefighters. There are sections in Tucson where firefighters won't go in until they've got a police escort in Tucson. We've got the same thing here in the Phoenix area. It's gotten better, but the zone down in central Phoenix, our firefighters and EMTs would not go in there without a police response. Really? Yeah. Yeah.

The second thing it does, which is really critically important, is it increases by a quarter million dollars the death benefit if a first responder is killed in the line of duty by a criminal act. And most importantly, it gets it paid within 30 days. Now, death benefits across the country for first responders often take over a year to get paid.

Well, that poor family is then secondly victimized because of that. They're nearly homeless or are literally homeless waiting for the death benefit.

So wherever the death benefit is now, it depends on what district you're in, where it is now. We're increasing it by a quarter million dollars in the immediate period right away. And we're paying for this not out of taxpayer general funds, but by a $20 surcharge on criminal penalties in Arizona. Now, that's not a speeding ticket. It's a criminal penalty.

Right. So a DUI would qualify, but a speeding ticket, jaywalking, whatever. Well, we don't issue jaywalking tickets anymore, even though we should. But those kind of misdemeanors don't count towards it. You have to get an actual felony to get hit with this. That's right. And by the way, over 70 percent of criminals do pay their penalty. Do they pay it on time or how long does it take them to do that? 70 percent pay it on time. Wow. Wow.

I think, you know, Tim and Chuck, I know we want to cover the other issue you're working on also. But one of the things people don't understand is like a lot DUI is probably half of that. Right. I mean, in terms of the total number of felonies in the state of Arizona, people pay that stuff. The the this trope that you're necessarily poor and can't afford some twenty dollar ticket because you're you're charged with a crime is just garbage. It's just not true.

I'd be happy to argue with anyone that a criminal needs that $20 less than a dead cop's family. That's a great point. That is a great point. Absolutely right.

So that is 3-1-1. Right. But the bigger thing this does is it gives the public a chance to say out loud at the ballot box, we stand with the cops, not the criminals. You know, last year was the first year in six where the city of Phoenix had more police coming into the force than leaving the force. First time in six. But if it continues at the trend that it is now, the city of Phoenix will be fully staffed in their police department.

In 40 years. Okay. I need to jump in on that one, Chuck and Tim, because I know for a fact the reason that that number was positive for the first time in six years had to do with the pay increase that they offered because senior officers also got a big pay increase by staying for three years. That gets reflected in their pension. Right. So that's why you had far fewer retirements last year.

Right. And the reason why we've got open positions across the country is because right now, if a son or a daughter goes to their parents, say, I think about I'm thinking about becoming a police officer in the city of Phoenix. What do you think, mom and dad?

Well, I've asked my mom and dad, they're going to say, hell no. And because they don't think that the police officers are being protected. And that starts with the community saying these people are important. Well, Carl Wimmer, our good friend Carl Wimmer, who's now a pastor, was, as you know, a SWAT team leader, legislator, but was a cop for 20 plus years. And I asked him, we recently went to a football game. I said, how many of your colleagues that you went to the academy with are still in law enforcement? He goes, one.

And I go, do they just take retirement? He goes, they don't feel appreciated. They just don't feel the support anymore. They just left. It was I got my retirement done. And they and they said they like the job besides what's happened to it now. So it's just like, why would I take this chance? I just take my retirement, go fish. All right, Tim, we got three minutes here. Tell us about no child for sale, what that's about and what we're asking and what the pushback's been from the left on it.

Yes, this is Prop 313. We have a serious problem both in Arizona and around the country on child sex trafficking. And so what we're doing here in Arizona is putting to the ballot a yes vote on 313. That's a penalty of life in prison if you buy a child or sell a child for sex in Arizona.

And that's really important, again, to send a clear message out there that we are serious. We want these criminals off our streets, out of our communities. And if you touch a child in Arizona, you're going to go to jail forever. And Democrats, so this came through the legislature. You'd think something like this, the vote is unanimous. I mean, who's for child sex trafficking? But that was not the case, correct? Correct.

Every Democrat in the state Senate voted against 3-1-1 back the blue. Every Democrat in the House voted against 3-1-3. Arizona children are not for sale. It's just insane that that's the place we have gotten to. And you're right. Arizona is – everyone thinks their hometown is the epicenter of child sex trafficking. But Arizona with the border has a very unique vulnerability there.

This is a big message to traffickers not to come to this state, right? The biggest weekend for child sex trafficking is Super Bowl weekend. Last time we had the Super Bowl and the golf tournament inside on the same weekend, Phoenix Open, there were 79 arrests for child sex trafficking. If there were 79 arrests, how many incidences went without?

So we're going to win this. The voters are going to say out loud, Arizona's children are not for sale. And the next time we have a Super Bowl here, I'm looking forward to seeing PSA saying, welcome to Arizona. Have a great weekend. Justin Bailey says, so you know, that's a child in Arizona. You're going to jail forever. All right, Tim, 30 seconds left. Give us both initiatives again. Two bullet points on each. White people should vote for him.

Prop 311, back the blue. It sends a clear message. We stand with the cops, not the criminals. And that's the first step in finding more and retaining more police officers. Prop 313, Arizona children are not for sale. That's the penalty of life in prison if you buy a child or sell a child for sex in Arizona. Love it, folks.

These are easy measures to get behind. There's a lot of measures on the ballot this year in Arizona. They're very complicated. These are easy ones to get behind. And if you're interested in bringing this to your own state, this needs to go nationwide. So we're going to stay tuned and follow those election results. We'll be coming back with more from Breaking Battlegrounds in just a moment. Check us out, BreakingBattlegrounds.vote, Substack, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, we're there. Breaking Battlegrounds, back in a minute.

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And you will not regret it. They have a fantastic service, fantastic offer for all of our customers there. Check that out. Coming back right now with Breaking Battlegrounds, our next guest up today, someone we're very excited to have on the program, Chris Saliza. He is a veteran political analyst with two decades of experience at major outlets like CNN and The Washington Post.

And he now stepped out on his own. He's got a new venture, So What?, a newsletter where he dives deep into the why behind major political events to help us understand what's coming next. Chris, thank you for joining us. Welcome to the program. Hello, hello, hello. Thank you for having me. What an intro, man. Well, you deserved it. That's why you got it. We don't make things up. You got it. You deserved it. So, Chris, here's my first question on this short segment. So we've done a lot of work out here in the West and in Nevada.

For a Republican to win the state of Nevada, they need to be at four or five points on election night. Democrats always make up two and a half to three, right? This is why you have Governor Lombardo and not Senator Laxalt. What do you need? What do Kamala? What does Kamala Trump need to be looking at on election night in Pennsylvania, North Carolina? I mean, how much do they have to be up or down? Do you think to say you're in this or this is gone? This race is gone.

So let's just do Pennsylvania just because I think it's the sort of most important of the swing states. You know, like I always say, if you tell me who wins Pennsylvania, I'd probably tell you – I'll feel pretty good about telling you who wins the election. You know –

It is in, this is true in Nevada. It's true in a lot of States now. I mean, it's basically a battle between city and non-city. Right. And I even put, so I kind of lumped suburbs into city. I probably shouldn't, but like, it's basically people who live in and around the major metropolitan area in your state or major metropolitan areas in your state versus people who don't, um, different States report at different times. Uh,

North Carolina reports relatively quickly overall. Pennsylvania reports a little bit slower overall. I think that...

that Harris's ground game is a little bit better than Trump's. Hers is through the campaign. Correct. His is through super PACs. Correct. We can debate it. I mean, my basic view is... Chris, we're on the ground in Arizona, obviously, a swing state. I don't think that's even debatable. It is a chasm in the quality between... And look, I always say this. In 2016, Donald Trump's ground game was terrible. Right, right.

The whole campaign infrastructure. He won. I always say this. He won in spite of the campaign, not because of the campaign he won. We agree. We agree. He didn't have any infrastructure, and he won. So I'm always a little bit skeptical, but I do think her ground game is better. I think that matters because you've got to find, like in Pennsylvania, she has to get every single vote out of Philly and the near-in suburbs.

that she can. And he has to, contrastingly, he has to get every single vote in all those counties between Pittsburgh and Philly. He has to win all those. So

I don't know, because I think what you're getting at is like a turnout question. And the thing that I struggle with, I always say this, like generically, if you told me 10 years ago, OK, a Republican and a Democrat are running for president and it's high turnout in the swing states, I would say, well, that's good for the Democrat, because the Democratic coalition typically is young black and brown voters and women. Right. And particularly young voters and women.

Black and Hispanic voters They are not as reliable as older white voters When it comes to going and casting a ballot Traditionally The thing is Donald Trump

His coalition is like totally different. He's doing better with black men than the typical Republican nominee. He's doing better with Latino men. He's doing better with younger men. I mean, he's doing better with men in general. That's the common theme. But like so I don't know. I see a lot of people pointing at like a Georgia and the turnout, the early vote numbers. There's all this is good for Kamala Harris. I mean, maybe, but I'm not convinced high turnout is bad for Trump either.

You know what I mean? Right. You don't know. It makes sense. It makes perfect sense. We have a minute left here. The one thing I read recently, I think it was the Philadelphia Intelligence or – I don't know what it's called. Yeah, Intelligencer. They were saying Democrats are worried about some of these –

voting precincts in Philadelphia that are working class now where Latino and black men were going towards Trump. And they were just saying, we're not going to get our bump out of Philadelphia. We've usually gotten in that scene. It was a pretty good article. And they just stressed that she may not get this bump she's expecting from Philadelphia. Well, and what I'd say, I know we're short on time, so I'll do this fast. What I would say is he's not going to win black voters. No, he's not going to win black men. No.

The issue is, can he lose by less? Exactly. That's the whole key. Does he cut in by 5%?

That's it. Can he lose? But it's going to be close. That's the thing I feel comfortable saying. It's going to be really close in these swing states. Can he lose by three to five to six, seven points less in some of those key subgroups? Exactly. And he did in 2020. That's it. Exactly. That is absolutely spot on, Chris. Thank you so much. We're going to be coming back with more from Chris Eliza here in just a moment. So stay tuned, folks. Breaking Battlegrounds back in a minute.

Folks, this is Sam Stone for Breaking Battlegrounds. Discover true freedom today with 4Freedom Mobile. Their SIM automatically switches to the best network, guaranteeing no missed calls. You can enjoy browsing social media and the internet without compromising your privacy. Plus, make secure mobile payments worldwide with no fees or monitoring. Visit 4FreedomMobile.com today for top-notch coverage.

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Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds with yours, Chuck Warren. I'm Sam Stone. Folks, check out our friends at Invest, the letter Y, then RAFY.com. Learn how you can earn up to a 10.25% fixed rate of return in a secure collateralized portfolio. If you need your money back at any time, there is no attack on your principal. You can get it back 100%. No problems at all. No fees. No penalties. It is a fantastic opportunity to do well for yourself and your family by doing good for others. When you invest with YRefi, you're helping students pay off their high-interest college loans early. So, if you're interested in investing in YRefi,

It's a fantastic opportunity. Again, check them out. Invest the letter Y, then REFY.com or give them a call at 888-Y-REFY24. We're continuing on now with our interview with Chris Saliza. He is a veteran political analyst, has worked at CNN, The Washington Post, now runs the newsletter So What, which takes a deep dive into the why behind major political events. And again, Chris, we really appreciate your time in joining us.

Does veteran mean I'm old? Yes. Yes. We're all old, Chris. It seemed like thinly veiled code for old. Listen, we have you on Zoom. You're not wearing a hoodie. So you're officially old. You're not wearing a hoodie in the house, right? Chris Eliza, under 50. What?

Just for the record. We're not going to talk about how much under 50. We're just going to say under 50. Well, you're about the margin of the polling. So new polling came out today from Emerson. I am right there with him. So careful what you're saying here, Chuck. New polling came out today from Emerson. Harris 49.5, Trump 49.2. And it reminds me very much...

I don't know if you watch Curb Your Enthusiasm. Yep. But Larry David goes to the line on election day and decides a guy in front of him is voting for the opposite guy. So then he goes to the party that night and his guy loses by one vote. I sort of feel this may happen in a state or two. Am I off on that?

So I got another one for you. This is amazing. So NBC News did a poll. They released it last Sunday. And it was 48-48. That was the announced number. And I was talking to Chuck Todd, who I've known forever, who was at NBC. And he said, you want to know something amazing? The difference between Harris and Trump in that poll was three people. Right?

Out of a thousand. So it was like 48, I don't know who was ahead, but it was like 48.4 to 48.2. Like that's how close it is. And I think that people, I think, I think we, we, when I say we, I mean sort of the media writ large. I think that like,

People don't grasp how close it is because the media has been telling them how close elections are forever just to get them to watch. Right. And the truth is, oftentimes, you know, polling doesn't suggest it's that close. I always remind people the national polling average in 2020 on the final day on Election Day, Biden was ahead by eight and a half points nationally. Now he won by about four and a half.

But that was not like on the numbers. That was not a close election in theory. It wound up being much closer than we thought. This is really, really close. Just one other fun stat. The New York Times does like polling averages in swing states. So these are averages. It's not one poll. This is the average.

In five of the seven swing states, I looked at this earlier earlier this week, in five of the seven swing states, either Trump or Harris is ahead by less than one point on average, which basically means in five of the seven swing states, the race is effectively tied. Yes, absolutely. And one of the things I think.

One of the interesting things is obviously New York is one of the few states that still has essentially one day voting. I'm tracking in on those three competitive U.S. House races there. I've started really narrowing on those races because it tells us if Trump voters are going to come out in blue states or in other states that could affect the makeup in Congress, the Senate, etc.

if they're going to push those swing states. Is that something... Am I off base by targeting those as an early indicator? No, because I think that at least two of them are on Long Island, and...

That is, you know, sort of suburban Republican women. Like if I had to pick a group, I mean, I would say Republican women, but suburban Republican women. And I would I I'm overgeneralizing. So if you don't if you're listening, listen, you are not included in this group. I apologize. But but what I am basically thinking of those people as it's like Nikki Haley voters. So like these are the people who Nikki Haley drops out of the presidential race and like

sometime in early March, but there's still primaries in April and May and her name's on the ballot because she's qualified. Right. And Trump wins these places like 80, 20. Right. There's like 15 to 20 percent of people who, despite the fact that Nikki Haley obviously is not going to be the Republican nominee, they still vote for it. It's basically a protest vote against Trump. Those people, I think, are critically important in this final push because they're

If I had to describe, like, what's the biggest chunk of undecided voters? And, you know, they're all over the map. But I do think a big chunk is those kind of like Nikki Haley Republicans. They are Republicans. They voted for Mitt Romney gladly. You know what I mean? Right. They maybe voted for they probably voted for Trump the first time. But they do.

not personally like Trump. Right. They don't want to vote for him, even though on issues from immigration to the economy and inflation, they agree with Republican solutions more than Democratic ones. The question is, she's not going to win all 20% of those people. No. Harris. Could she win 6%?

If she wins a quarter of them, that's the districts that matter. So what did what what Republican vote did Biden get in 2020? Chris was eight. Let me look. That's a good question. I think it was eight. Yes. Let me guess and say eight percent. Yeah, I think it's eight. I think Hillary was around five.

Here's 2020 exits. It's usually like five to eight. But let me look. Party ID six, six, six, ninety four, six. And Trump got five percent of Democratic votes. Biden won independence. Fifty four. Forty one. Which, by the way, is a switch. I know Trump won independence in 2016. So what what is the independence now? Yeah.

It depends on the poll. Most of the polling I've seen, he is ahead by mid single digits among independents. Now, again, I always say this is so hard. Like independent is not a political party, right? So like independents are kind of all over the map. Like a lot of people who I think call themselves independents, maybe they're like they used to be centrist Democrats. They used to be centrist. Like I'm always skeptical. I don't know how you define independent and across all these different things, but I

You know, it was 26% of the electorate. So one in every four people said they were not independent in 2020. And he won, she won, he Biden won by 13.

Do you feel abortion is going to play a significant role in this election? There was an interesting article. We're in Arizona, Phoenix. Abortion here has not done what they think it's going to do. Trump's probably going to win the state. They'll keep the House seats. It's just not done what it's due because people are able to go like, oh, good. I get to vote for abortion rights and I get to vote Republican. This is good for me today. This is what you have out here. I don't know if that's in other states. Do you think Kamala's made a mistake focusing so much on that and not the pocketbook issues? Yeah.

Ask me in two and a half weeks. It's like it's like I was a big believer that she should have picked Josh Shapiro just because I think Pennsylvania is the most right. And like, yeah, he helps if he helps with 5000 votes. It's 5000 votes. She didn't have. And if if she loses, I'll say, see, I told you. And if she wins, I'll say the VPs don't matter. I don't know. I mean, look, to go back to the Nikki Haley voter thing.

You know, there is a chunk of those people who are Republicans on fiscal stuff and conservative on fiscal stuff and relatively liberal on social stuff, particularly abortion. I don't know. The thing is, it's like, where does it fit in the priority chain for voters? Correct. Right. That's always the question. People always ask me, like, why don't politicians talk more about climate change? Because every poll says like 90 percent of people think the climate is something we need to preserve. Well, yeah, but they don't vote on it.

It's like, it's like campaign finance reform. Totally. Campaign finance is the Uber issue of that. It's like, everybody's like, there's too much money in politics. You will never see an ad work that is about money in politics. You know what? People don't really care. No, they don't care. They just don't. And because 90% don't give to it. So what do they care? It's not my money. They don't. So like, if it's, if it's an, uh, uh, economy, inflation, immigration referendum, she is going to lose.

I like, you know, for all of his Donald for being the Donald problems, he will win that election if abortion matters. And it doesn't have to matter to everyone. But if abortion and the Roe v. Wade overturning and people, if it matters to that chunk of Republican suburban women and five or six percent who would have who were absolutely voted for Nikki Haley vote for Kamala Harris, maybe again, just as a sidebar.

It would never happen because Trump won the Republican nomination going away. But if Nikki Haley is the nominee today. Oh, yes. Yes. She is going to win. By six or seven. Yes. Now, I mean, my belief always has been Trump is an unstoppable candidate in a Republican primary and the worst possible general election candidate because people who should. It's like Carrie Lake. You could never beat Carrie Lake in a Republican. It's really hard to beat Carrie Lake in a Republican primary. But.

In a general election, there are lots of people who should be for her who will not be for her. Well, what's amazing is it's those voters you were talking about. I mean, quite frankly, it is the Nikki Haley voter who is her great deficit. When you look at the numbers, she's not going to win. I mean, she that there is no reason that.

Donald Trump should be up one or two points in Arizona and Ruben Gallego is up six to eight to ten. I mean, there's no reason for no other than Carrie Lake. Yeah, exactly. No, exactly. I mean, you guys are there. I mean, what do you know? No, you're absolutely right. We've talked about that. The Trump. I mean, you know, you would think who you're voting for Trump, you're voting Carrie Lake. It doesn't translate. I mean, we have literally talked to people who are Republicans saying I'm voting for Trump. I don't really like him.

Are you over Kerry? Oh, hell no. I mean, it's just like that blunt. Oh, hell no. I just don't like her. I don't like her. On that point, though, and I'll ask Chuck, both you and Chris, this question, whether you're talking about Trump, Lake, Kamala Harris –

I've got to say right now, I think all of those candidates are leaving two points on the table by not admitting to past mistakes. Yes. Yeah. For example, you know, if Trump just came out and said, I lost 2020. We've talked about this before. I don't want to get into the politics of January 6th. Sam and I were disgusted by it. But if January 6th never happens, Trump doesn't fight the election 2020. He probably wins this by three or four. You know what's so interesting? Someone said, I agree with you. And someone said,

to me recently. I said, what's because everyone's like, well, what can they do in these final weeks to change anything? And my general view is almost nothing because like it's so locked in and who the hell knows what makes undecided voters change their mind or make up their mind. But this guy who is smart about politics said, you know what Trump should do? He should go and say, pick something, not January 6th, not the election, but pick something and be like, you know what? I made a mistake on that.

Yeah. Yeah. I thought it was going to go X way and it went Y way. And if I'm in president again, I'm going to learn from that. Just admit one. Yes. Humility. It doesn't have to be like the tax cut or what, you know, it doesn't have to be like foundational, but because it would show at least some humility that he's evolving at some level and he just cannot do it. Like I just, I keep coming back to this, this race is,

should a Republican should be elected president. You have an unpopular incumbent president of the United States whose vice president is the nominee who didn't get any votes to be the nominee. You have immigration and the economy, the two major issues on both a majority of the public trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle it. Two thirds to 75% of people believe the country's off on the wrong track.

If I told you guys that or you told me that in a vacuum and I said, who's going to win? You would say the Republican every time. Right. But Trump is Trump. And that's why the race is close. One of the things I want to run back real quick. We have just two minutes left, but I want to run back. I keep thinking about the comment about the ground games. Yeah. And I got to say, how much did that change? So Trump had a lousy ground game in 2016, but 2020 changed the rules.

It didn't affect Arizona very much, but Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, all these other states that became mail-in states all of a sudden. How much does that change this race now, having a better ground game in this current environment? So I think when we look at turnout and machines to turn people out, like your voter operation –

I think we're looking more at 2016 as the kind of – that's why I think turnout will be lower, honestly, than it was – I mean, in 2020, turnout was through. There was like 150 million people there, right? I think it will be lower than that, and I think it will be more traditional, which – why I think Harris –

you know, maybe benefits a little there. That said, I always, every time I say, because it used to be the thing I was always taught was like, whoever has the better machine, ground game machine is going to win. And like, Trump did not have the better ground game in 2016. It wasn't even close. Hillary built a really well-funded traditional ground game in

just had Trump and like a few people, random people, some who worked at his golf club, like organizing and he won. So it's like the, the, the excitement and energy for him and the people who are for him, maybe you don't need that. I don't, I don't, I'm again, again, I'll sound a lot smarter if I can predict the election after the election. As we all, as we all absolutely.

Chris Eliza, thank you so much. We really appreciate having you on the program today. Love your insights. Uh, how do folks get signed up for your newsletter? Totally. I'll, I'll do two plugs. One, it is just go to, uh, type my name into Google C I L L I Z Z A and sub stack. That'll get you my sub stack. It's called. So what, if you want to go, I make YouTube videos every day, youtube.com. And then just my name, Chris Eliza. Uh,

I'm building in both of those places. Those are the places where I spend most of my time. Easy enough. Two L's, two Z's. Breaking Battlegrounds will be back on the air next week.

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Welcome to the podcast segment of Breaking Battlegrounds. Big thanks to both of our guests today, Liz Scheld and Chris Saliza. Really appreciated having both of them opposite and opposing viewpoints on many issues, which is, I think, what makes Breaking Battlegrounds a better show than most out there. Knowledgeable. Knowledgeable. Yeah, no, look, I have zero problem with intelligent people.

progressive or intelligent Democrats who can articulate a point of view. Chris comes with a particular point of view, and he's really good. He's really deep, and he knows his stuff. It drives me nuts when our side doesn't want to listen to people like this. You can't learn to defend your side. You can't learn to defend your position. Right. It's just odd. How do you ever combat what the other side is doing if you don't know what they're doing at all? 100%.

Well, we have an exciting week again at Kylie's Corner. Yeah, well, I wasn't here last week, so I had to give more options. Now we know why criminal procedure shows on TV never run out of good storylines. Because it's all just based on fact. I mean, if you're watching Law & Order, it's constantly like, I sit there and I'm with, you know, the boy and say, oh yeah, that literally happened like six months ago. I...

So I am – obviously as I do with all shows playing catch-up, I pretty much will get going on a show after I know it's done. Yeah. Which means I'm watching Blue Bloods right now and it's so clear that they have pulled at least half of those episodes from things I remember from the news. Well, it also tells us you're old. I am old. I am old, Chuck. Sam sounds the only person in the world admitting he's binge-watching Blue Bloods. Look.

If it didn't come out 10 years ago, I'm not up with it yet. There's a true story. The man that plays Tom Selleck's father in that show is like a year younger than Tom Selleck. No. Yes. No. Yes. Yes. Oh, my goodness. That's crazy. That's why Tom Selleck just doesn't age, right? Well, that's what – I was really thinking that watching the new episodes. Now, this is a show I am up on is Tulsa King. Oh, Tulsa King is fantastic. Oh, it's brilliant. It's brilliant.

Stallone at 75 looking and moving like that. Still beating people up. Still beating people up.

How many of those guys who like his age? What shocked me, actually, I know we're way off our politics here, but he is so good as an actor in that. Like that guy has grown as an actor in the course of his career more than any. He was a brilliant writer from the start when he wrote Rocky and did all that. But let's face it, he was kind of a stick of wood for his first 10 or so years in acting. No, he's good. He's good. Really good. And you can tell he has fun with that show.

It's a great cast. They seem like they'd be a fun crew to hang out with off set. I think they enjoy work when they go in for that day. It looks like it. All right. So now we've talked about a little bit of TV crime. What do you got that's real crime? That's some real life crime. Real life crime. Well, the first one's not quite crime. But...

I have an update on the NCAA women's volleyball scandal. So the University of Nevada, Reno, their women's volleyball team put out a statement on their social media and said, we, the University of Nevada, Reno volleyball team forfeit against San Jose State University and stand united in solidarity and then list all the other teams that had forfeited. They said, we demand that our right to safety and fair competition on the court be upheld. We refuse to participate in any match that advances injustice against female athletes. Okay.

Then the University of Reno, Nevada Reno, came out and said, we actually disagree with the team's statement. And they will be playing in this game regardless of what they think. The players don't have to play, but they are not forfeiting this game.

Well, if the players don't play, you're forfeiting the game. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I mean, I just think. Has the governor stepped in on this? Yeah. So the governor, Governor Lombardo, he put out a statement and said that he stands in support of the players and no student athlete should ever be pressured to play in a game where they don't feel safe, period. So basically the university.

of Reno is pressuring women to do something they don't want to do. You know that the DEI department at that university wrote that letter and handed it to the administration and said, you have to put this out or we're going to throw a fit. I guarantee you what happened behind the scenes. Jenna, reminding our listeners last week, what was the difference in speed between a female speeder

any biological male spike? Was it like double? So in this lawsuit, supposedly Blair Fleming, she's the transgender athlete in this situation, she supposedly can spike up to 80 miles per hour. I'm putting that in air quotes because I haven't seen it for myself. You can watch videos on Twitter and it is much faster. And I think the females are like 40. Yeah, they're about 45. I saw a little clip of this and

Like, you know, the whole set, set, spike routine. You've got two girls who get three and a half inches off the ground and then this dude comes along and his feet are at the top of the net. 30-inch vertical jump. It's just insane. It's actually insane. Yeah. It looked so incongruous when he jumped compared to everyone else on that court. Like, I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

Create that darn open league, but stop this stuff. Yeah, just create the open league. So today is October 18th. This game is supposed to be October 26th, so I will keep you guys posted on...

people who continue to forfeit because there are teams that are still playing. I'm interested to see if the players at Reno don't show up. What does the university do? That's what I'm asking. Do they say we're taking your scholarship away? That's what I wanted to know, the scholarship. Can you imagine the lawsuit then? Oh, absolutely. And with the governor, I mean, it's a state university. So with the governor on their side, good luck to those administrators. True.

All right, what else you got? Moving on, yeah. So I have an update on the Abby Zwirner case, which I talked about this probably a year ago. It was a teacher who was shot by her six-year-old student in January of 2023. Was that Virginia? Yeah, in Virginia. Newport News, Virginia. So her lawyer has come out and made their first statement about the day leading up to the situation. Four separate times the university was notified by staff

teachers that this student had a gun. So at 10:30 AM, How many times? four times at 10:30 AM, Abby herself, the teacher who was shot,

went to the administration and said she had heard a rumor that this boy had a gun in his backpack, and to which she said it was pretty much just brushed off by the administration. They said it's not likely for him to have one. Then at noon, so during lunchtime, a teacher searched the kid's backpack and said that they were confident that the boy had a gun, but it was not in his backpack, and they thought it would be in his pocket, to which the school responded and said, he has pretty small pockets. That's not likely. Okay.

So again, ignoring the situation. Then at 1 p.m. after the kid came back from lunchtime, a teacher went to the administration saying a child came to her after recess crying, saying the boy showed them the gun at recess and said, if you tell anyone, I'll shoot you. And then the administration continued to do nothing.

You know, we have to get to a point where we start taking all threats like this seriously. I mean, how many of these school shootings would be prevented? This is the fourth one. A teacher even went again after one o'clock, said, why don't I just go search the person's backpack, their body, and I'll make sure that they don't have the gun. And the administration said, let's wait this out. It's almost the end of the day.

And that was within the hour that the student then shot at him. Was he mad at the teacher, by the way? He was, actually. So that was the day he just came back. That day was his first day back after suspension. He's six years old.

for slamming the teacher's phone into the desk. So he was suspended. And this was his first day back. So he has behavioral pattern issues. Yes. So this was his behavioral issues in the past. Cussing at staff, trying to whip students with his belt, choking a teacher. In 2021, he allegedly came behind a teacher. One and two I possibly could have had involved in my childhood. Three just went straight overboard. Wait until four. He allegedly came behind a teacher, locked his forearms behind her neck and pulled her backwards.

How big is this kid? I don't know. He's six. So as big as – just think of like the most giant six-year-old. Let's just pretend he's any smaller than that. You know, I have a friend who's – one of her dear friends is a nurse with a psychologist that handled behavioral problems of violent children. And she told my friend that some of these kids, she leaves thinking they're going to kill somebody someday. They know, right? Right.

I don't know how you solve this problem with this young man, but he's a dangerous society. He just needs to be put up somewhere and stay there for a long time. This is why inpatient mental health facilities, mandatory inpatient mental health has to get back to because – If you're doing that at six – So yeah, I actually read a book a long time ago and I'm blanking on the title, but it was a sociological study of the development of humanity and it basically posited that there is actually –

Sure. Sure.

Understanding that there are going to be people who bear those traits down through all these generations later. It just is what it is. We have to be honest that some people are not going to handle being in society very well.

Well, he does not deserve to be walking among his fellow classmates. No, he definitely doesn't. Or at home. Or at home. Yeah. Well, this reminds me because there was – I did this – talked about this case a couple – I don't know, probably a year ago now, but it was the 10-year-old boy in Texas who admitted to shooting someone at 7 years old because he was getting in trouble at school for, I think, threatening to shoot someone. And he admitted to – I had already done this when I was a kid.

When I was seven and it turned out that he was connected to the case of this man living in his RV and he just walked in and shot him for no reason. I remember you telling us about that. What happened to that kid? You know, that's a great that's a great. He needs he needs to be. See, I just think they should be executed. I don't care about this child stuff.

I'm kind of with you, to be honest. There's no redeeming value in six or seven doing that. There's no psychological success history of doing so either. No, no. I mean, there's just – come on. If you're doing a six or seven, there's something off-kilter about you. But you hit on one of the big points here is in almost every one of these cases, every school shooter, this kid, whatever, there are so many warning signs and schools are so afraid –

to investigate and discipline students for anything other than like some racial insult, which they'll grind down to the nub, right? Let's be honest about it. With all the school shootings the past decade, can we conservatively say two-thirds could have been prevented? I think you're— Just by warnings? Just by warnings? I think you're way underestimating that. I always like to be lower on these numbers, but let's say two-thirds, hundreds of lives,

Would have been saved because people would have heard the warning. This young man, four warnings that day. People need to lose their job. Yeah. And a bunch of teacher union crap and school board crap needs to lose their jobs because they make these moronic laws.

All right. Do you have a third story that's going to rile me up? I do. I do. So this one's about a former Canadian Olympic snowboarder, Ryan James Wedding. He was a snowboarder in 2002 for Team Canada. So not an American snowboarder. He got 24th place. So what was it?

Not a gold medalist. So he's got a better name than snowboard talent? Yeah, well, he's currently on the run from the FBI. They announced yesterday that there's a $50,000 reward for information leading to his arrest. Okay, so first of all, I'm going to stop there for a minute here. Why are these rewards always so low? I mean, just say, this guy's running a cocaine ring. He's murdered people. Let's put a million bucks out there and let's get people out. It's always low. It's like, you know, it's like...

Someone killed so-and-so and disappeared. There's a $7,500 reward. Get real money in this. Especially to these drug lords. They're not offering up any information for $50,000. No. Anyway, sorry. They're investigating him on eight felonies, conspiracy to distribute and possess controlled substances, conspiracy to export cocaine, murder in connection with criminal activity,

Whoa. Criminal enterprise and drug crime and attempted to murder in connection to his drug enterprise. So he's basically being accused of running a drug trafficking operation from Mexico up to Canada, pretty much through California. And there was a bunch of houses. Stash houses. Stash houses. They're using...

big old trucks and all this kind of just to be transporting up and down. And now he's on the run. He goes by alias names of El Jefe, Giant, Public Enemy, James Conrad King, and Jesse King. How many people is he supposedly orchestrated a murder of? So there was, he's being investigated for a family murder in Ontario. This was in November of 23. A family murder? A family murder. The whole family. Oh my gosh. I couldn't find any information. The

Besides that. So I was trying to figure out if there was an assault case. That is a cartel signature right there. And then also another victim who owed them money. He's accused of murdering in May of 2024. So he plays like 24th in the Olympics. He was in the Salt Lake Olympics. Yes. You wonder if he had won a medal if his life had been different.

That's a great question. That is a great question. I mean, you know, is it just him or is it just because he got, you know, it's 24th, he spent a career, he had no discernible talents besides snowboarding. He probably taught snowboarding, got into drugs. Someone said, you can make great money doing this. Some rich drug person probably told him that. And he got involved. Versus if he had won a medal.

And be able to do it again and have sponsorships. So I blame the IOC. Also, it's cocaine. So I'm like, in my... I mean, there's probably other drugs, but snowboarders aren't necessarily known to be sober out there snowboarding. So I do think that there was already a connection between... Well, they do need a little liquid courage for what they do. Especially the adrenaline. I could see him already being in it and then him not being successful in that

Snowboarding field. So, yeah, actually, having grown up ski racing, one of the things with snowboarding is the injuries are worse because your feet can't come out of the board. No, no, you hurt your back. So you end up with back and all sorts of injuries like that. But so far in the stash houses, they've seized one ton of cocaine.

That's a lot of cocaine. That is a lot of cocaine. That's a lot of cocaine. Only $255,000 worth of cash, but they did seize $3.2 million in cryptocurrency. These guys are doing crypto now. When you have more cocaine in your house than you can haul in an F-350, you've got issues. Yeah. If you've got any information, you've got $50,000. $50,000. Folks, just so you know today,

Kylie's wearing a sweater. It's a bit chilly here in Arizona. It's 71 this morning. So on behalf of Breaking Battlegrounds, Merry Christmas. I'm just waiting. We need some jolly in this life. Well, thank you, Kylie. Those were interesting stories.

Sam, there was an interesting story you and I shared and talked about from Politico this week, just talking. The title is Weird Consequences Abortion Rights Measure Could Scramble Arizona Election. Sam, why don't you tell our audience a little bit about it and why they're spot on about it?

Yeah. I mean, it's an interesting I thought it was a really good analysis piece by Politico. Yeah. Surprisingly good. Yeah. I mean, it really spot on. So obviously there's a lot of machinations behind this leading up to it. But basically, Arizona had in place still pre Roe v. Wade law from the territorial era. That was a total abortion ban.

There was an effort by certain members of the Republican legislature, along with Democrats, the governor and others, to get that overturned and reinstate the 15 week law that Governor Ducey had previously signed into order.

That was not enough. So Democrats went out and put up a constant state constitutional ballot measure that is for unlimited abortion. You know, literally, you could get your massage therapist to say you need an abortion in the ninth month. And the funny thing is, they deny this. Right. I mean, it's just if you can read, if you can read, it says, you know, up up to the date of birth.

By a medical professional, you have to look at the definition of medical professional in the state, which includes obviously chiropractors but also masseuses, naturopaths, all sorts of stuff. So it's ridiculous. So this is there. From the group concerned, women are going to have an abortion in an alley.

Right. They're going to have some holistic doctor perform the abortion. I mean, that's what we're talking about here. So it's a total con. The woman whose job is actually selling essential oils from her semi-hippie medical office. Right, right, right. Whatever.

So but Democrats put this up, obviously, as a way to drive turnout because they thought this would be the huge issue for them. You look at the ads they're running. They literally pretend that that Arizona has that total ban in place. They're straight up lies. But it's not moving the needle the way they hope because two reasons. It gives people a cop out. They don't need to do it. I vote for this abortion. Vote for my Republican. Right. That's why he's not working in Nevada.

And that's why I think Democrats have overplayed their hand with this in a in certain states, particularly Arizona, Nevada and others where they have passed reasonable abortion laws. Right. Like 15 weeks is what most of the public wants. This would be one thing if Arizona had a ban or if it was in the Texas range of a couple of weeks and that kind of thing. But it's not playing. And Politico is pointing out that it may hurt some of the Democrat candidates because, like you just said,

A voter who wants to vote on abortion can come out. They can vote for this bill. It's going to pass. We had – our friends were kind of guessing anywhere from 55 to 60-some percent. I might even say it might go higher than that. It might be at 65. And then that issue is over here. I mean it's a constitutional amendment. There's nothing you're ever going to do.

reaches only 55, Republicans have a huge day in Arizona. Oh, that's a great point, Chuck. I mean, if it's only 55, then this was a bad cycle in Arizona, and it will put the stamp on Arizona being red again. I think you're absolutely right. I think what's really interesting about it

is how much money they have spent on that bill, which now we know is like $20-plus million that they have spent promoting it, right? And the pro-life group has raised a million. A million. Yeah.

I mean, they wonder why they never win these things. Well, I don't – I mean, here's my take on that million. You should have put that into four house races at $250,000 apiece for the state house, right? And just won the races. And won those races because this thing is going to pass. I mean, you can spend $10 million against it and you might not get down to $55. Right, right. One more thing before we get our sunshine moment. Yeah.

What do you take of these prediction markets in the presidential race? I have not bet on them. What is your thoughts on me? So there's like a mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets. And, of course, Democrats are something nefarious here before you get social media. Other people are saying, no, it's just people think they can make money. Okay, yes. Before I give away – I'm going to give away my only Kylie story.

Perk your ears up. This is my only real sports betting secret, and it's how I consistently have made – I don't do a lot of it. I'm listening. But I make money every year sports betting, and here's how.

She's taking notes. I pick small market teams against big market teams in big games. So if the Yankees are playing the Kansas City Royals on Sunday night in Kansas City, there's a huge amount of bets that come in for the Yankees from Yankee fans that distorts the line in favor of betting for the Royals. Right. Right. So I look for those.

Here's the thing about this. Gamblers know and Vegas goes out of their way and some of these books, I question a little bit whether they patrol for this enough.

is that you can then move the line by moving a lot of money in on one side, right? Right. Especially if you do it very suddenly. And there appears to be some shenanigans like that going on in both the market, in the poly market and some of the others, both for Trump and against him. So Kamala Harris had a big move up in those right after the Brett Baier interview, right?

I'm sorry. That wasn't a natural swing. Somebody got on the sidelines and said, as soon as that interview is over, we're going to buy up a bunch of bets for Harris and drive the line. Right. And, you know, would Democrats blow millions of dollars doing that right now just for the headline? Absolutely they would. Yeah, 100 percent. They have more money in this cycle than they know what to do with. Well, there's plenty of money. We were talking about this morning on our text thread about –

Sean Noble, a frequent guest of our show, was talking about who came up with this idea. And I just said, nothing. It's just like a bunch of people like us on the Democrat side. And somebody says, I have so much money, I don't know what to do with it. I can't buy one more TV spot because... They're all bought. They're all bought. They're all bought. I can't put one more digital ad up because I can't... So...

Give me something creative. Oh, good. Here's $140 if you register to get somebody to vote. Right. I think they're doing $160 to reach out to 10 family friends. You don't have to go see them personally. It's just post something on social media or email. A minimum of $160. Yeah. It's crazy. Yeah. But that's just where you start having dumb money. Yeah. Yeah.

You know, here's the thing. I would encourage Republicans, if you get those texts, sign up for it. Here's the thing they can't do under that law. They can't tell you what to do. They can't tell you what to say about Kamala Harris. So you can reach out. You can take their money, reach out to your 10 friends and tell them how much you think she's awful. Because you're basically an independent contractor. Right. You are. Interesting. All right. Well, that's...

that's the law they created so they can live by it. All right. Well, we're going to have a sunshine moment this morning to close this amazing show today. What do you got here for us, Jenna? Yeah. I have two stories, both kind of historical things that have come up recently. This past year,

a couple of weeks or so, they found... Have you guys seen Indiana Jones, the third movie? Yes. The Last Crusade. It takes place at Petra, and they go into the tombs at the old treasury in Petra. Recently, a group of archaeologists just found...

bodies buried underneath the edifice and there are 12 relatively well preserved but fragile bodies that they found so these are like mummies like mummies oh cool yeah yeah not yeah yeah that's very cool so they they're going and none of them are Brendan Fraser no

That's not as far as we know. Just checking. And they are... So a lot of the architects are very excited about this. And so they took a photo in front of it. They were wearing their fedoras, looked like Indiana Jones. And they also found...

what they thought was a chalice, like a goblet, similar to the movie. And they took a photo of it. It looks just like the, you know, he chooses the more reserved chalice instead of the shiny one. It's just a jar, but it looks like they took a photo. It looks like the cup of a carpenter. It looks like the cup of a carpenter.

Amazing. Amazing. I love that. But yeah, so that was a cool moment that happened. So they'll be doing some more digging there. And then the second story is a Monet painting was just returned to a family, a Jewish family. It had been taken from their home in the in 1940 by the Nazis in Vienna. The family had run away to Austria.

They had fled Vienna but had been storing all of their artwork. Where did they flee? Did they make it through World War II? The direct family did make it through World War II. So they got out early. They got out early. The extended family did not make it out, but the direct family did. Can you imagine those conversations? I'm staying. I don't think it's going to happen. This is my home. And the other person is saying, I'm leaving. Yeah.

And all these historical, there are thousands and thousands of looted artworks in the Musee d'Orsay. I don't know about thousands, but there are a lot of looted artworks still there that have not been claimed. And they just know it's, you know...

Yeah, so all stripped away from these families and these Jewish families. But the descendants of this family worked for years and years and years to get these paintings back. They put in a lot of appeals to the government and to the commission that helps return paintings. There are a couple different organizations that have been set up in order to do this.

And they finally, the grandfather of this family passed, but the children found a receipt that said,

that the Monet had been purchased by them. They received a lot of pushback, especially in the late 1940s. But they were able to prove that they had bought this Monet. How much did they buy it for originally? I'm not sure originally, but the most recent sale, or the highest sale in 2019 of this painting was $110.7 million. No, but I wonder in the 40s and 30s what they bought it for. Oh, yeah. I mean, what was expensive then? $2,000? A couple of grand? Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, yeah, absolutely. A couple of grand. See, those are investments we need. I know. I got to find one of those. Start going to garage sales. Estate sales. That's the thing. How do I identify? You just buy something that looks good and you just take it and give them $100, man. And then you start doing it. You hear these stories. Twice a year. Twice a year, here somebody goes, I went to an estate sale and voila, now it's worth $40 million. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

Yeah. I'm becoming a hoarder slowly because I'm collecting a couple little things. And, yeah, my mom's pretty mad at me about that. But that's okay. You'll have the last laugh when you cash something for $50 million. You know, here's the thing. I've talked to a lot of real art collectors about this, right? And they say that, yeah, it's great to go in and buy a Monet or whatever, have that kind of money.

But the real joy in that industry is finding that person who's now about to become a big name. Right. And so they said the most fun thing is just collecting cheap art that you like, that you think is great. That you just like. Right. And then it increases in value. And then you just keep stock.

Right.

I just want it, right? And it usually does appreciate. Well, folks, thank you for joining this week at Breaking Battlegrounds. On behalf of Jeremy, Kylie, Jenna, Sam, and our guest, thanks for joining us. You can follow us at BreakingBattlegrounds.vote or on Substack or anywhere you get your podcasts. Have a great weekend.