cover of episode Navigating the Trump/Harris Polls with Liz Sheld and Chris Cillizza

Navigating the Trump/Harris Polls with Liz Sheld and Chris Cillizza

2024/10/18
logo of podcast Breaking Battlegrounds

Breaking Battlegrounds

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Chris Cillizza
K
Kylie
L
Liz Sheld
S
Sam Stone
Topics
Liz Sheld: 卡马拉·哈里斯在媒体面前表现不佳,无法有效回应重要问题,这与其政策的不得人心有关。她缺乏政治技巧和亲和力,无法与选民产生共鸣。尽管民调显示特朗普目前领先,但选举结果仍难以预测,关键在于摇摆州的投票结果以及邮寄投票和计票时间的影响。拉丁裔男性和非裔美国男性选民将是影响选举结果的关键群体,而年轻一代选民对现有体制的怀疑态度也可能影响投票意愿。参议院选举结果将与总统选举结果密切相关,但一些候选人的表现可能落后于特朗普。 Chris Cillizza: 宾夕法尼亚州的选举结果将对总统选举结果产生重大影响。卡马拉·哈里斯的竞选组织比特朗普的更好,这在关键摇摆州的选情中很重要。高投票率对民主党有利,但特朗普也可能从中受益。民主党人担心费城的一些工薪阶层选区可能会转向特朗普。特朗普能否减少在关键细分群体中的失利幅度是关键。选举结果可能非常接近,甚至可能取决于少数几张选票。在七个摇摆州中的五个州,特朗普或哈里斯的领先优势都不到一个百分点。纽约州的几个竞争激烈的众议院席位选举结果可以作为早期指标。那些对特朗普持保留态度的共和党选民(例如尼基·黑利的支持者)将是影响选举结果的关键群体。哈里斯能否赢得那些对特朗普持保留态度的共和党选民的选票将至关重要。堕胎问题在选举中的作用尚不明确,哈里斯可能在关注堕胎问题上犯了错误。如果经济和通货膨胀是主要问题,特朗普将获胜。鉴于当前的政治环境,共和党候选人应该获胜,但特朗普的个性可能会影响选举结果。在当前的选举环境下,拥有更好的竞选组织对选举结果的影响有限。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Liz Sheld discusses her thoughts on Kamala Harris's performance in a recent Fox interview, highlighting her lack of preparedness and inability to articulate clear answers on major issues.
  • Kamala Harris's poor performance in media interviews
  • Lack of media training or preparedness for questions
  • Inability to articulate clear answers on key issues

Shownotes Transcript

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, Chuck and Sam welcome Liz Sheld, senior editor at American Greatness and co-host of Happy Hour with Julie and Liz). Liz breaks down the Trump-Harris polling numbers, what to watch in the final weeks before the election, and her take on Brett Baier’s interview with Kamala Harris. Next, Chris Cillizza), a veteran political analyst with two decades of experience at CNN and The Washington Post, discusses trends in swing states and why the election outcome is so hard to predict, with one poll showing Trump and Harris tied, where only three voters made the difference. Stay tuned for Kiley’s Corner, where Kiley covers the NCAA women's volleyball scandal, the Abby Zwerner case—the teacher shot by her six-year-old student in 2023—and the FBI's reward for a former Olympic snowboarder running a drug ring linked to multiple murders. As always, the show wraps up with Jenna’s Sunshine Moment.

www.breakingbattlegrounds.vote)

Twitter: www.twitter.com/Breaking_Battle)

Facebook: www.facebook.com/breakingbattlegrounds)

Instagram: www.instagram.com/breakingbattlegrounds)

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/breakingbattlegrounds)-

Show sponsors:

Invest YrefyYrefy offers a secure, collateralized portfolio with a strong, fixed rate of return - up to a 10.25%. There is no attack on your principal if you ever need your money back. You can let your investment compound daily, or take your income whenever you choose. Make sure you tell them Sam and Chuck sent you!*Learn more at *investyrefy.com)

4Freedom MobileExperience true freedom with 4Freedom Mobile, the exclusive provider offering nationwide coverage on all three major US networks (Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile) with just one SIM card. Our service not only connects you but also shields you from data collection by network operators, social media platforms, government agencies, and more.Use code ‘Battleground’ to get your first month for $9 and save $10 a month every month after.*Learn more at: *4FreedomMobile.com)

Dot VoteWith a .VOTE website, you ensure your political campaign stands out among the competition while simplifying how you reach voters.*Learn more at: *dotvote.vote)

About our guests:

Liz Sheld is a political consultant, the senior editor at American Greatness, and co-host of Happy Hour with Julie and Liz).

Chris Cillizza is a veteran political analyst with two decades of experience at major outlets like CNN and The Washington Post. He now runs So What?), a newsletter designed to taking you behind the scenes of big events in Washington and the country.

Get full access to Breaking Battlegrounds at breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com/subscribe)