Why the Election is a Marathon Not a Sprint ft. MSNBC's Katy Tur & Alex Wagner
2024/11/2
American Fever Dream
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Alex Wagner
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Katy Tur
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Sami Sage
Katy Tur：本届大选与以往不同之处在于，对任何持不同政见者或记者的攻击已成为常态。特朗普及其盟友鼓励支持者对批评者进行围攻，制造对抗情绪。虽然特朗普的精力和清晰度有所下降，但他始终如一地使用含糊不清的语言和虚构故事。2016年集会的高涨热情帮助他赢得大选，但目前集会规模并不能完全反映选民的热情。对选举安全存在高度担忧，因为存在威胁投票行为的风险，包括暴力威胁和舞弊企图。部分特朗普支持者相信选举舞弊论，并可能采取暴力行动。媒体信任度下降，信息来源多样化，人们更容易接触到自己想听的信息。AI技术的发展也可能加剧信息真伪难辨的问题。特朗普的竞选策略是制造新闻热点，以此转移人们对其他问题的关注。民主党竞选团队的一个错误可能是让拜登过晚退出竞选。
Alex Wagner：即将到来的选举将是一场马拉松，而不是短跑冲刺。宾夕法尼亚州的计票情况可能会导致选举结果推迟公布。选举舞弊的可能性很高，但其影响程度尚不清楚。最高法院在选举中的作用令人担忧。特朗普对选举规则的无知可能会导致选举结果争议。特朗普对选民具有强大的控制力，这使得选举结果难以预测。作为记者，应该既要追求事实真相，也要理解选民的观点和感受。许多美国人感到疏离和被边缘化，这导致了政治极化。社会和文化因素对政治生活有重要影响，社会媒体的碎片化加剧了人们的孤独感和疏离感。特朗普政府的一些恶劣行为并未得到应有的重视和处理。特朗普的支持者对其个人具有强烈的忠诚度，这使得其负面新闻对其影响有限。如果特朗普落败，共和党可能会重新评估其未来的政治策略。特朗普在共和党内的影响力巨大，这使得本次选举结果难以预测。很难判断J.D. Vance是否能够像特朗普一样成功地领导共和党。特朗普在竞选中的演讲技巧非常出色，而J.D. Vance则缺乏这种能力。如果特朗普落选，共和党可能会继续推行其政策议程，这将更加危险。特朗普的成功在于他能够将对工薪阶层不利的政策宣传给工薪阶层。在与犹豫不决的选民沟通时，应该强调选举的利害关系，并激发他们的同理心。
Sami Sage: 选民的投票行为和思维方式可能出乎意料，并不总是符合预期的逻辑。媒体所处的环境与普通民众不同，媒体信息传播的范围和方式也与普通民众不同。社交媒体上的信息传播速度很快，可能会影响选举结果。特朗普对波多黎各人的侮辱性言论可能会影响选举结果。特朗普过往的所作所为可能会影响选民的投票选择。Z世代的观点来源主要是网络评论，这加剧了虚假信息的影响。AI技术的发展可能会导致信息真伪难辨，从而促使人们回归可信的新闻来源。选民的思维方式存在模式，候选人可以利用这些模式来影响选民的投票行为。
Deep Dive
Why do Trump's rallies no longer fill up as they used to?
Enthusiasm gap compared to 2016; crowd sizes are smaller.
Why is the 2024 election expected to be a marathon rather than a sprint?
Potential for delayed results due to mail-in voting and legal challenges.
Why might Trump's base remain firm despite smaller rally attendance?
His base is emotionally invested and sees him as persecuted.
Why do some voters feel alienated from the political system?
Sense of unfairness and feeling untethered from communities.
Why is there concern about election malfeasance in 2024?
Threats to election officials and potential for legal challenges.
Why might Trump's divisive tactics be a double-edged sword?
They energize his base but alienate potential swing voters.
Why is there a problem with trust in the media?
Increased options for information and prevalence of disinformation.
Why might AI be a tipping point for trust in media?
Ease of creating fake content could push people back to verified sources.
Why is it challenging to predict the outcome of the 2024 election?
Emotional resonance of MAGAism and fragmented voter bases.
Why might Trump's legal issues not resonate with his base?
They see him as a victim of persecution rather than a lawbreaker.
The discussion explores how political extremism has evolved, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's rhetoric and its normalization in American politics.
- Trump's rhetoric has normalized attacks on the media and political opponents.
- Trump encourages his supporters to target those who disagree with him.
- The atmosphere at Trump's rallies has become increasingly hostile and divisive.
Shownotes Transcript