Blue Wall Former Governors on the Battle Lines and Their Fears of Election Certification Chaos
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Somebody's got to win. On the show, I talked to two former governors from the all-important swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Governor Tom Corbett was the Republican governor of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2015. And Governor James Planchard was a Democratic governor of Michigan from 1983 to 1991. These governors know these battleground blue wall states inside and out. So we talk about what they're seeing on the ground, how they're interpreting early voting returns.

what counties they'll be looking at on election night, and who's left, if anyone, to persuade. But first, we talk about why this bipartisan duo has banded together to fight against any attempts to override the election results.

Governor Blanchard of Michigan and Governor Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania. Thanks so much for joining the show. So happy to have you on here. Well, thank you for having me. Happy to. So you're a bipartisan duo. We've got Governor Blanchard, who was a Democratic governor from Michigan, and Governor Corbett is a Republican governor from Pennsylvania. Obviously, these are the all-important battleground states in the blue wall.

that everyone is paying attention to right now. And these are the states that you have governed for so many years and that everyone knows really well. It's interesting that you put out a letter recently, a joint letter with a number of other former governors urging your successors to certify the election results by the December 11th deadline and

And you are telling them not to fall into any pressure from the Trump team, not to do so like they did in 2020 when they tried to apply pressure on governors Brian Kemp in Georgia and Doug Ducey in Arizona. But most of the governors in the battleground states now are Democrats, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and now Arizona. So is there...

still a reason to be concerned about governors falling under pressure from Trump not to certify the election if he doesn't like the results? Well, I'm not worried. I'm going to let Governor Corbett speak on this as well. I'm not worried about those battleground states, nor am I worried about the Republican governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp. I'm not. So you're correct in raising that issue. But there are, you know, another, what, 43 states where governors could

Under pressure, duress, whatever, or they think they're currying favor, could try to hold up the process. And so we don't have a timely calculation or tabulation of the Electoral College. So reality is people like former Governor Corbett and others are going to take him to court.

and mandamus because this is not a discretionary matter. The governors need to certify or issue certificates of assertion about who their electors are based on the vote in their state. And it is not a discretionary thing. It's not something to play games with. It's really mandatory and it's administrative and that can be enforced in court and we'd have to do that in a timely fashion. Is that a fair characterization, Governor Corbett? It is. And, Torrey, the

The whole process of this was to remind all the governors that things have changed since 2020 with the Election Count Reform Act of 2022 that now made it absolutely clear that this is a ministerial duty and you can't change anything.

This is probably more belt and suspenders when you look at it as to let's make sure everybody understands it. But not just the governors. That was a public letter. You picked up on it and other media outlets have picked up on it. Hopefully they've communicated it to the general public. So the general public doesn't believe that the governors can just willy nilly say, well, I don't like that slate of electors, so I'm not going to certify them.

And it really applies to where the problem, if there's going to be a problem with certification, is the counties have to certify. They have to certify it to the Department of State here in Pennsylvania, Department of Commonwealth. And the secretary there certifies it to the governor. Then the governor sends it down to the archives and to the president of the Senate, which is the vice president of the United States at the time. In 2020, actually, Donald Trump did call

members of the Board of Canvassers in Wayne County and try to get them to delay certification. And joining him on the call was Ronna Romney McDaniel, the Republican Party chair. And they ended up resisting the call. Again, I think really because they knew that what they were doing was ministerial, the numbers were the numbers. So it is, the pressures here can be great on someone, particularly if they're

politically ambitious locally. And I think the key is to make sure they realize they're going to lose in court and they're going to be embarrassed. Just to play devil's advocate, if Trump loses, he's not the president of the United States trying to hang on for dear life. And as president, has a lot of power as the chief executor of the country, right?

He'll just be some politician who has his MAGA army behind him. So it's not going to be quite the same as 2020, don't you think? Well, I hope I hope it's not the same as 2020. And part of the work that we've been doing to keep our republic is trying to talk to the states, the battleground states particularly, to be prepared in case they do try and do something like that.

But he's not coming from the same position. He was president when that happened on January the 6th. He was not president once January the 20th came along. He's not president now. But that doesn't mean that there aren't people out there thinking that they can do this again and they might try it again. So this is more an education to everybody.

that the rules have changed, and you all should be prepared in case they do try it. You know, the social media traffic suggests that there's all...

even more discussion about holding up the election. It's going to be rigged no matter what. There is social media that's suggesting they're going to be more active in trying to stop a count if it's not one they like. Well, they've said so explicitly. We have the machinery. We, we Democrats, I should say, have the machinery. And the vice president is going to preside over the Electoral College results

is going to be kamala harris so that's different too but the point is come on this is a democracy you know trust and good faith are really important trust is a coin of the realm they need to act in good faith and move this along without incident without a lot of you know baloney be the leaders of their state and they need to do that part one of the things that i have been talking about

is, you know, the comment that they're going to cheat, they're going to cheat. They cheated back in 2020. And as a prosecutor, most of my career, I couldn't make allegations if I didn't have evidence. And so far, nobody's produced a shred of evidence that there was any cheating.

Do some cases have mistakes made? Yeah, sometimes there are. Are there some cases that maybe there was something done that shouldn't have been done, but not to the magnitude that, for instance, in Pennsylvania would cause a margin of victory for President Biden to be 80,000 votes more than President Trump, even though President Trump won in 16 years.

He lost by 8,000. That's a hard number to manufacture. And it's impossible to keep conspiracy, from my experience, it's impossible to keep conspiracies secret. And you're a Republican, Governor. You are still a Republican, right? I'm still a Republican, but I am fact-driven. In Michigan, Joe Biden won by 150,000 votes. There were countless investigations.

which produced nothing, no fraud anywhere. Actually, Fox News got sued for suggesting it and they paid $780 million on it. But what happened was two years later,

The top Republicans running for statewide office were all election deniers, and they all got wiped out. So the Democrats won, like Gretchen Whitmer, our wonderful, she won by 11 points. Normally in our state, we're a three or four point race state. She won by 11, which was more than the nine she won before. So, you know,

They made fools of themselves. So hopefully we won't have any more of that. What do you think is going to happen the next day? Like, do you think we'll actually have the results on election night? In the battleground states? Yeah. In some states we might. Pennsylvania?

I think it's more likely this time than it was four years ago. And that has to do with the Election Count Reform Act again and the government giving money to the counties to get the equipment that will speed up the count and the promise from the counties that they will stay open and count 24-7 to come in with ships.

It may not be by midnight. It definitely won't be by the time the different media outlets predict the winner based on the people coming out of the polls, which I always hate. But I think in Pennsylvania, except for Philadelphia, we'll have a pretty good idea. Philadelphia right now is under-promising because I think they don't want to be held to coming in at that point in time. They're talking Friday.

I can't see how it's going to be Friday to get to that. It's going to be Wednesday or Thursday. Oh, so you're optimistic. That's great. In Michigan, I think we'll know by midnight. Oh, OK. One reason is we can process these bail-in ballots, absentee ballots. We can process them earlier. We can't tabulate them, but they can be opened up, taken out of envelopes, fed into a machine,

uh, and get ready to be tabulated. I'm not sure what the word is, but you know, so they're going to be able to do a lot of this now early, uh, which is good. Uh, and they can,

get the ball rolling right at 8 a.m. on election day. Can I get into some politics with you both? Because I know that you live in your state still, you know, these states back and forth. Governor Corbett of Pennsylvania, I wanted to ask you, what counties are you going to be looking at on election night? How will you know which way the results are leading? I'll be looking at Philadelphia County to see how that comes out in 2016.

I predicted to a member of the national media that Mrs. Clinton had lost the election based upon the lack of numbers that she came out of Philadelphia with. And so Philadelphia's one, Allegheny County is one. There's about six counties that I'll be looking at to see how those numbers go. What are you thinking about early voting so far? What's that suggest to you? It suggests that people are certainly interested in the election. They want to express their opinion.

I think we're up to over a million people have already voted in Pennsylvania. Last night, I recall. And remember, 10 years ago, we didn't do anything like this. COVID changed everything. So and four years ago, President Trump encouraged people not to vote by mail. Now he is encouraging the vote by mail. Republicans have embraced it. It's working a little bit better. There's no COVID related issues to it.

Every time you do it, I guess you get the counties get a little bit better at it. My fear throughout this whole thing, one of them is outside actors outside the country trying to interfere with the election in some ways. In Michigan, we had vote by mail by at 2020. I think we had more votes in then than now because it's COVID. We have a lot now.

So I think between early voting and vote by mail, we probably have two million in. You need to look at Oakland County, which is the county north of Detroit, northern suburbs, more affluent suburbs, high percentage college graduate, higher income. They provided Biden with 200,000 more votes than actually the city of Detroit.

So looking at Oakland will be important. That's where I'm sitting right now. But there are Wayne County suburbs that need to be looked at. And then on the west side of the state, Kent County, the Grand Rapids area, those are the areas. You look at Oakland County, Kent County, suburban Wayne. I think the votes in Detroit are going to be there for Kamala. The question is turnout. Turnout, I think, will be reasonably good. But it's generally going to be the suburbs.

And it's going to be women. And the thing about women is they're not only decisively supporting Kamala, but they vote in higher percentages than men. And there's a pretty wide gender gap in Michigan, right? Women are more for Harris than men are for Trump. And also vote in higher percentages. And that's true of black women as well. So when you read about somebody, some, some professor in the East coast trying to analyze young black men, uh,

I don't think they've got it right at all. I could tell you that Kamala Harris will do well among black men, but we Democrats never do as well among the men as we do the women. It's just that simple. And how are you feeling about the early voting figures that you're seeing right now in Michigan? Good. It tends to be, again, more women and older. Good.

I think Kamala Harris will carry Michigan probably by three or four points. I think women are the deciding factor, although I will say the share of white male college graduates moving over to Harris is

when they're more historically Republican, although it's close, is a trend that I'm watching. We'll see. Because they're registered Republicans? We don't have party registration in Michigan. Yeah, that's right. Okay. There are more women than men have voted so far. Substantially more. Yeah, I think that's the case, too, in Pennsylvania. With an hour before boarding, there's only one place to go, the Chase Sapphire Lounge by the club. There, you can recharge before the big adventure.

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Can I ask you, Governor Corbett, do you think that Harris can reach President Obama's levels with rural voters and urban voters in Pennsylvania? Like, can she hit those black and Hispanic figures that came out? It was obviously critical not just for President Obama, but for Joe Biden to win the state as well. No, I don't believe she will. And part of it has to do with the fact that, you know, she's part of the prior administration. President Obama was young, brand new to it.

I think it would be more difficult because she has, even though she wasn't the president, she has a record that in some areas, it's just not going to play that well. And if Trump were to win, it's going to be because of that record, not because necessarily voting just because they really like Trump. Of course they are.

but they're also looking at what they consider to be a bad four years. So she's got some Biden baggage, but when Obama ran again in 2012, he was on shaky ground, right?

And he ended up getting more African-American men and women to come out and vote for him in 2012. And they didn't think that was even possible. Barack Obama is really a once in a generation phenomenon. Right. Well said. Well said. I was close to it.

really thought that because of how Obama did, that Hillary would automatically do as well in Michigan. They really miscalculated. I tried to tell them, to be honest, but they really miscalculated. Now, I still thought she'd carry Michigan. And there were over 200,000 third-party votes, which really cost. That probably cost her as much, to be honest, as anything.

But it's hard to look at Obama because I look at Michigan. We're normally a toss up state. I mean, I was the first Democratic governor in 20 years. We're a toss up state. And that's what happens with our Senate races or gubernatorial races normally until we had these election deniers running. But really, I think we're going to know by 11 or 12 at night. But, you know, I can't imagine that Harris would win by more than three points.

I would say that she still has some room to grow. But the question is, will she get that? Can she convince people it's time for the new generation? It's time to turn the page. You're going to get change without changing parties. It's true. But she looks at the world differently. I mean, she's 22 years younger than Joe Biden, 20 years younger, she and Tim Walz than Donald Trump. It's time for a new generation, a fresh look.

I think that's in some ways a better argument than trying to list a bunch of programs. Do you think she's done an effective enough job of speaking to people in Michigan right now? I think so. She's going to be back here, too. She's she has really worked. Both of them are here all the time, but she will be back here this weekend. We're going to see her, I think, in Detroit, Oakland County, where I live, Lansing, New

We were with Bill Clinton on, by the way, he did a swing along the West side of state on Wednesday and he loved, they love seeing him. It was like, I was, it was like for us being back in the saddle again, it was a really exciting moment. And a lot of people got to see Bill Clinton who'd never seen him before. So we're trying to have some fun here too. Who are,

are the remaining persuadables in Michigan? That's hard to know. I think sometimes undecided voters, and Governor Corbett can speak for Pennsylvania, a lot of times undecided voters are really low information voters and don't end up voting. Or they're kind of misleading the reporter by saying, oh, I want to see what he says about

You know, how much do I got to pay for my gasoline? I don't know. And I watch these people. They're playing the they're playing the reporters. I don't know. I had my mom on the show a few weeks ago who was undecided in North Carolina. And she walked me through all of her thinking. It's just she couldn't prioritize what was more important to her when going to the voting booth. Although it looks like she's going to vote for Harris.

Which would be a break from her. I think she voted for Trump last time. Well, that's good. We're up 1-0. She cancels out my dad. That's how we thought about it. Her vote cancels out my father's vote for Trump. Her baby is silent here. I spoke to her where...

though the wife or the daughter or the mother of a man who's all for Trump is quiet and votes for Kamala. I can tell you, the more people see Harris and feel comfortable with her, the better she's going to do. But there's still a lot of work in that area, to be honest, because, you

You know, people don't know who the vice president is normally. And so all of a sudden she's our nominee. So it's been a remarkable thing. I mean, it's remarkable. We have Trump running. Who's an election. He claims he won the last election when he didn't. That's remarkable. We've never had that, but we've never had in recent years, a nominee like Kamala, who was basically, uh,

by choice anointed shortly before our convention. I mean, it's pretty remarkable. We're this, we Democrats, I'm biased, obviously,

But she's performed beyond our wildest dreams in terms of her speeches, her debate, how she handled on Fox News. We could not ask for anything more other than we need more time for people to get to know her. So you think the fuse is too short. But it's interesting because to me, her Achilles heel is separating herself from Biden. Absolutely. And her past comments from 2019, frankly, when she ran so far to the left.

They think they've come back to haunt her. Those have, to me, been like the two things that I think have dogged her. Particularly her position here in Western Pennsylvania where natural gas is so important.

her position about, you know, we're going to end fracking, we're going to stop it right there. Now she tries to say, no, you know, I understand it. They don't let that go. And that's a very important segment of our community. I hope they do let go because I've been in the energy business for many years on the board of a major company and I support fracking properly regulated. And we're lucky we have it. And it gives us, it gives us, helps us give us energy independence from the rest of the world.

And natural gas is the key, the transition fuel, as you know, Governor, from coal. And natural gas has half the greenhouse gases of coal. And I was happy that Kamala Harris said she supports fracking. I mean, once she became the nominee with Biden four years ago, she needed to adopt and embrace his platform, which is an energy all the above. But I agree with you, they can use that against her because four years ago,

She was doing what a lot of Democrats did, listening to the Sierra Club and not really thinking through our energy future. I would say this about people not making up their minds. A couple of things. Television here is just one commercial after another. Oh, I can only imagine. You know, and we have people that come in from out of state and they see TV. How do you put up with this? It's called the mute button.

You know, you just go to mute because you've heard the commercials. My mom says she's only streaming now. She's in North Carolina. But in addition to that, we have a big Senate race here that's going on. So they're back and forth on this. How do you feel about that race, by the way? Well, I support Dave McCormick. I know him pretty well. Yeah. I know Bob Casey very well.

know his family very well, knew his dad better. It's time for change. He's been there for 18 years. I think it's time for a change. Okay. And so you support McCormick. Are you going to support Trump? Are you going to go out and vote for him? I'm not telling anybody what I'm doing. I'm not out publicly supporting him. You know, I always talk about using your cell phone and everybody looks at the cell phone. They're either belonging to the red party or the blue party. I

I belong to the truce party right now. You put out a memo or a letter essentially saying that you're concerned about how he's going to wreak havoc on the results of the election. So I can't imagine you're going to go in there and give the guy the power to do that. I'm not telling anybody, including my wife, what I'm doing. Oh.

Oh, OK. This is like a whole part of the campaign from the Harris point of view about, you know, keeping it secret from your spouse. I think they said an election booth is like a stall in a bathroom. You can do whatever you want in there. No one will know. So there's clearly just just shows you the polarization, the fear, the dysfunction. But I do want to ask you while I still got you, Governor Corbett.

Is there anything that you're seeing on the ground in terms of seniors coming out en masse for Harris or these first time female voters coming out? A lot of Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia, like, do you think they were impacted by what was said? This is just what I'm hearing right now. And if there are any bright spots for Republicans that you're seeing. Obviously, the reporters are reporting that they were somewhat impacted. And I wouldn't be surprised by that.

Um, but I'm, I measure it in a different way because it's hard. I mean, I read, I see the news, I read the news, um, there's slants of different news and stuff. I'm very unscientific. I think that the Harris campaign has a better ground game. And when I say that it's getting people to put yard signs in their yards. And in 2016, uh,

The Trump campaign obliterated the Clinton campaign in heavy Democrat areas in their ground game, particularly the sign game. You mean like Bucks County? Well, I'm talking, I see more Western Pennsylvania. Bucks County, in 16, Bucks County was Republican County. Today, it is a Democrat county, but the Republicans are trying to get it back. It changed a lot in those eight years. But here in Western Pennsylvania,

In 16, I was going through Westmoreland County, heavy Democratic county at the time. And I saw one sign from Clinton on a stretch of about 15 miles where I should have seen many more. The one sign said Hillary for prison. That's how much the area had flipped. It's now a Republican county. For decades, my entire life, it was a Democrat county. Western Pennsylvania has gotten more Republican.

Eastern Pennsylvania has gone more Democrat. The point is, in the southeast, 40 percent of the voting population of Pennsylvania is in the seven counties in southeastern Pennsylvania. So that's really that's why I say Philadelphia is kind of what I'm going to be looking at.

But, you know, the ground game that I'm seeing now alone within five miles of my house, I'm seeing signs in yards that never had signs before. And it's the Harris-Walls signs, some signs for the senatorial candidate, Bob Casey. But that's it.

You see some Trump signs, but not to the extent as before. I like the sign game. I think it just gets the vibes. You just get a feeling for how it's going. I live on a road that there's six miles of it. And I measure by those six miles.

Traditionally, not very politically active with science. They're politically active this year. We have a great ground game in Michigan. I say we, the Harris-Waltz-Slotkin campaign here, the likes of which most of our candidates have never seen before.

which is a really good sign. And the Republicans have no ground game. Two reasons. One, Trump relies on rallies, period. But a lot of the same people go to different rallies. They even come from Indiana and Ohio. It's a real kind of like Grateful Dead concerts. Yeah, it's the Trump show. I was just there at Madison Square Garden. The people were not all from New York. They came from all over. Yeah.

So we think if the polls were to show it even, we think we would win with our ground game. And partly with the Republican Party went bankrupt in Michigan because they got wiped out by running election deniers. They haven't really recovered. So they have no structure. We have a real good structure. And my wife and I were visiting just one of the canvassing meetings yesterday. In fact, Gretchen Whitmer was there yesterday.

seeing them off and thanking them. So we think it's good. I want to say, though, you know, I have a Governor Corbett, you know, I have a partner in Charlie Dent, moderate Republican member of Congress, and he's endorsed Harris. He's not claiming that Pennsylvania is there yet, but he's working at it. And he's highly regarded in those Philadelphia suburbs.

And he's working it hard. He doesn't think Pennsylvania is there for Harris yet. He's not ready to make the claim I'm making for Michigan because we have a great candidate and a wonderful organization and a popular set of members of Congress and a popular governor. I can just say from my own reporting that I know that the Trump team does not feel good about Michigan of the blue wall states. They feel like they'll lose that one by the most. But yeah, I think they still have hope for Pennsylvania.

But Governor Corbett, I mean, how many votes do you think this election will be decided by in Pennsylvania? I hope which whoever wins wins it by at least 40 or 50,000 votes.

It may not be that high. Oh, really? It's going to be close. The reason I want that number is because that's pretty hard to say it was rate. Who do you think is going to be like the deciding group that really tips the scales one way or another in your state? You know, we still have we still have an undecided. I don't. How can you be undecided three days out from the four days out from the election? It's hard to believe.

But even those who have said who they're voting for, they can change their mind going in. So I think it's going to be somewhat in the African-American population as to the numbers turn out. Hispanics, particularly the Puerto Ricans, that could be one of the areas. But again, as the governor said, it's going to be with women.

Definitely is going to be with women. What do you think of Trump going to Penn State this weekend? Is that to talk to the bros? Well, you know, everybody that's running for office goes to Penn State when they're running for office. And you've got Ohio State, Penn State. And they're both, I think, Penn State's undefeated. I think Ohio State has one loss. It's in the middle of the afternoon. It's a beautiful time to be going up there. It's a beautiful location. You've got 109,000 people in the stadium.

And he showed up in Pittsburgh. He went to the Steward game a week and a half. If I were running, I'd be there. Yeah. I'll tell you.

Even though I know that immediate area is going to vote Democratic, people come from all over the state there. So it's a big deal. And you could easily, safely root for Penn State because they're not going to carry Ohio. So it would be nice if Kamala would go there or Tim Walz. But I'm not sure how that's played out. All I know is they're all working very hard. Well, thank you.

Thank you so much for your time. I'm hopeful that the democratic process will go smoothly, you know, and that not just your letter, but the fact that you are going to use your own power, legal powers to make sure that happens. It's good to hear that there are people out there who worked in government from bipartisan that are out there trying to make sure that we have a smooth transition.

election. I want to thank you for having us on because you're helping us get the message out that we want to get out. This is an engaged audience. I can tell you that they are in it. They are eager to learn as much as possible. So you may hear from some of them. Regardless of the outcome, we're still going to be working on Keep Our Republic because we believe in it and it's bipartisan. We're willing to put a lot of time in on it. So thank you. Thank you. Have a good day.

That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins, who have been working overtime in these final days before the election. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest.

You can use the discount code Tara20, that's uppercase T-A-R-A 20, for 20% off a subscription at Puff. See you again on Tuesday. We're almost there. Hang on.