Key Insights
Why did Democrats seize on John Kelly's comment about Trump being a fascist?
To underline Trump's anti-democratic tendencies in the final days before Election Day.
What is the significance of the new poll discussed in the podcast?
It aims to understand the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.
Why is the early vote data tricky to interpret?
It can show trends that may be reversed on election day itself.
What does the early vote data suggest about voter behavior?
Voters are changing their behavior compared to 2020, with some delaying their early vote.
Why might a late-breaking October surprise or early November surprise change the polls?
Events like these can move the race by two to four points in the final days.
What did the analysis of the polling landscape reveal?
The number of polls has slightly decreased since 2016, but the quality might be higher due to more nonpartisan sponsors.
Why is the 3.5% number from the Yale study misleading?
It only accounts for specific minor anti-democratic behaviors, not broader concerns like January 6th.
How does the podcast bro voter differ from the Liz Cheney voter?
The podcast bro voter is younger, more disillusioned with both parties, and reached through different media sources.
Why might young men be less likely to vote in this election?
They are disillusioned with both major parties and have historically lower turnout rates.
Chapters
- Retired General John Kelly called Trump a 'fascist'.
- A Yale study found only 3.5% of voters would switch their vote due to anti-democratic behavior.
- The study also found that 12% would defect from their party if the candidate was anti-democratic.
Shownotes Transcript
