Deep Dive
Why is there concern about Islamic State potentially rising again in Syria?
The fall of Assad's regime has created a power vacuum, similar to Libya after Gaddafi, allowing extremist groups like Islamic State to exploit ungoverned spaces. HTS, the current dominant group, is distancing itself from extremism, but its control is uncertain, leaving room for IS to resurge.
Where are the remnants of Islamic State currently located in Syria?
IS remnants are present in Kurdish-controlled camps, prisons in Damascus, and ungoverned desert areas near the Iraqi border. These spaces provide opportunities for IS to regroup and operate.
Why have Western countries like Britain refused to repatriate IS fighters and their families?
Western nations have deemed the situation in Syria too unstable to repatriate foreign fighters and their families, leaving them in Kurdish-controlled camps, which could become vulnerable if the Kurds lose control.
How does the relationship between HTS and Islamic State differ from their past partnership?
HTS and IS were once partners but fell out due to the extreme violence IS pursued in establishing a caliphate. HTS now seeks to distance itself from extremism, while IS remains far more radical and violent.
What is the significance of the recent execution of 54 government soldiers by Islamic State?
The execution highlights IS's continued activity and its targeting of pro-Assad forces, particularly Shia soldiers. This contrasts with HTS, which has used language of reconciliation and amnesty for regime supporters.
Should Western nations be blamed for the potential resurgence of Islamic State due to their refusal to repatriate fighters?
Yes, leaving battle-hardened fighters in ungoverned spaces with grievances is irresponsible, especially with unreliable allies like Turkey nearby. Repatriation was necessary to prevent this situation.
What is the primary threat to the West if Islamic State rises again in Syria?
The primary threat is not major terror attacks in the West, as most ISIS-linked plots were inspired rather than orchestrated from Syria. The greatest peril remains to local populations and fellow Muslims in the region.
- Islamic State's presence in Syria is more significant than recent media coverage suggests.
- The group is present in detention camps and prisons, and their release could be a major destabilizing factor.
- The fall of Assad's regime has created a power vacuum, potentially enabling a resurgence of extremist groups.
- HTS's relationship with Islamic State was initially one of partnership, but later deteriorated due to ideological differences.
Shownotes Transcript
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis, joined by Alex Dibble. Since the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, there has been widespread suspicion of HTS, the group which led the rebellion and which is doing its best to distance itself from its extremist past.
Its past included a partnership with Islamic State, the brutal terror group, which has never totally gone away. But is there a threat that they could rise again in Syria, even above HTS? And what would that mean for the people there and the wider world? The Times World Affairs editor Catherine Philp has written about this and is our guest today.
Firstly, Catherine, where has IS been? The noise about them has been pretty quiet in recent years, but it turns out they are still quite prevalent in Syria.
Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. So obviously, I mean, we've seen some activity in the last couple of days in reaction to what's happened already. There is also been talk of the ISIS, the black flag that we all remember so well, being raised and taken through Christian neighbourhoods in places like Homs. So there is clearly some attempt by these remnants to
to remind people during this period of chaos after the fall of Assad that they are still there. The other place where they are prevalent in one form is in these camps that are in the Kurdish areas of Syria. So they're in detention in those areas. And there's also the camp where the family members are.
some of the countries involved in the fight against ISIS, like the US, have been very keen for countries to take back the
those foreign fighters and have said that this is too unstable a situation for them to remain in. And Britain is one of those countries that has refused to take back either the families or the fighters. And so there's a great number of those people still there. And they could be I think it's pretty critical what happens there.
in those camps and what happens to those camps. And so, you know, if the Kurds get sort of run out of town, who is going to take hold of these prisoners? The other place that, of course, some of these ISIS guys exist or are present, ironically, is in the prison which
in Damascus, which we've seen prisoners pouring out of, released by the rebels who've taken it over. Now, some of those people will be ISIS fighters. There's a great number of entirely innocent people who were there because of their opposition to the Assad regime. But there are also some pretty unsavory characters.
So a lot of uncertainty, but how easily might Islamic State rebuild in Syria? It feels to me as though HTS is in control and maybe they're most likely to stay there. ISIS was never popular in Syria itself. I mean, its relationship to HTS, who've taken power in the interim, is an interesting one. They started off as partners and fell out very badly, mostly over the...
violent extremes that ISIS took their dream of a caliphate to. So I think that, yeah, I think there's very valid concern amongst the Syrian population that extremist elements like ISIS, if not ISIS itself, but also like ISIS could come to the surface. Because the problem with the fall of a regime like Assad's is that it's really been hollowed out.
by what's the events of the last decade and a half. And I think one analogy might be Libya, that really the institutions of the state there were almost non-existent by the time that Gaddafi fell and that allowed a free-for-all. So there's plenty to be concerned about.
How much do you trust that HTS is no longer an Islamic state-like group? Your article, could it not be focused on HTS, given they are the ones closest to power now, rather than Islamic State?
Well, we definitely should be focusing on that. I mean, I think it's interesting that they've made emollient noises about sort of plurality and democracy and representing everyone. Jelani has taken off his Islamic headgear when he made this address on TV. But I
I heard an interesting report that the lobby of the hotel stank of alcohol. The HDS guys were going around smashing it all and getting rid of it. I think that's one, you know, they are an Islamist government. How far they take that, you know, remains to be seen. One of the things that led to ISIS taking over in the way that they did in that area, the caliphate in both Syria,
Iraq and in Syria is, you know, there's vast areas of the of the country where they can operate without actually having to have territorial control. So, you know, there's a massive eastern desert all the way to the Iraqi border. And it's those kind of ungoverned and ungovernable spaces that ISIS could take advantage of. I mean,
You know, these are extremists. They're as extreme as an extremist group that we've ever seen in the world. So these are sort of apocalyptic jihadis. They exist to sow chaos and to achieve their goals.
Non-earthly aims. I think it's just all situations of instability when it's not pinned down. We don't know for sure how in control of things HTS are or opportunities for groups like this to make a recurrent resurgence.
Catherine, in your piece today, you talk about a report that 54 government soldiers, soldiers loyal to Bashar al-Assad, were found by IS extremists in the desert and executed. Certainly that shows IS are still active there. But would those soldiers' treatment have been any different, do you think, if any of the other rebel groups had caught them, given the strength of feeling against anything pro-Assad at the moment?
I think potentially, yes, because I think HTS have tried to at least use the language of reconciliation. So they've said there will be amnesties for people who were involved in the regime.
So, but ISIS wouldn't do that. And government soldiers were always a particular target for ISIS. I mean, they quite often would, because quite a lot of those soldiers, they were predominantly Shia, not Sunni, and ISIS are a Sunni group. And the...
Syrian armed forces were dominated by Shia. So they often used to execute them on camera in one of these very, like, you know, theatrically gory sort of propaganda videos that they would make. So, yeah, Syrian soldiers were a particular...
It was always to send a message. I think that at the moment, HTS, they haven't shown any inclination to behave like that at the moment. So, you know, I think best case scenario is that there is some sort of reconciliation.
Catherine, you mentioned earlier that there is this concern about IS prisoners who Western nations refuse to repatriate and to try for terror offences over the last decade or so. Should we really be blaming the West for this potential rise of IS?
Yeah, I mean, you don't leave a bunch of people, you know, battle-hardened people with a grievance sitting in a desert in an ungoverned space, especially when you've got an unreliable NATO ally like Turkey coming for the people who are holding them a prisoner. I think it
I personally always thought it was incredibly irresponsible of countries not to repatriate people from that area for this very reason. I mean, this isn't, you know, all the warnings about why it needed to happen are false.
What we're thinking about now, what we're discussing now is that the fall of Assad was always going to happen at some point and there was always going to be a power vacuum and we were going to find ourselves here. And so now we are. So finally, Catherine, are we talking about major terror risks for the West again if IS rises in Syria once more?
No, I'm not. I can't. I wouldn't go there. I don't know that. I mean, let's be honest about who who ISIS presented the greatest peril to in the end. It was people who lived in their territory and around.
Most of the plots against the West that were ISIS linked were ISIS inspired rather than being hatched from coming from those places. The people who suffered the most at the hands of ISIS were fellow Muslims, not people in the West.
Okay, Times World Affairs editor Catherine Philp, thank you for joining us. That is it for today. Thank you for spending 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.
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