cover of episode 英伟达IR路演解读:12月12日美西参访团

英伟达IR路演解读:12月12日美西参访团

2024/12/17
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左兜:英伟达于12月12日与统一证券美西参访团进行投资者关系路演,主要围绕财务状况、产品策略和未来发展方向展开讨论。核心主题包括Blackwell架构及未来毛利率展望、AI技术设施需求的持续强劲(尤其在生成式AI、代理AI和大型语言模型推断方面)、扩展定律的有效性、英伟达在AI推理领域的领先地位(性能和效率优于竞争对手,且在不同平台部署方面更灵活,而ASIC应用场景受限)、机器人领域的长期机会(提供全面的软硬件解决方案,包括数据中心的训练、机器人内部计算和Omniverse平台)、主权AI市场潜力巨大(与国家GDP相关)、以及中国市场策略(虽然重要,但数据中心收入远低于出口限制前的水平,预计未来还会持续下降)。 短期来看,Blackwell基础设施建设会使毛利率略微下降,但长期来看随着效率提升,毛利率会回升。2025年Q4财报毛利率预计将适度下降至70%,但随着Blackwell完全部署,预计将回升至70%以上。2025年Q3财报Networking收入减少是由于出货时间问题,而非需求问题,预计2025年Q4财报将恢复环比增长。Blackwell需求强劲,出货量符合预期,预计2025年Q4财报Blackwell收入将高于上一季度。 英伟达认为,随着摩尔定律终结,系统级扩展至关重要;生成式AI、代理AI和大型语言模型的推断至关重要,且仍处于早期阶段,推断计算密集度高,需求驱动因素增加;英伟达在AI推断领域遥遥领先,是全球最大的推断平台;ASIC可能有利基市场,但长期来看市场巨大,TPU的出现并没有减缓英伟达的发展速度;在自动驾驶和机器人领域拥有3000亿美元的长期机会;短期到中期内,电力消耗不会成为强劲增长的阻碍;主权AI市场机会与国家GDP规模相关;中国市场份额持续下降。 总而言之,英伟达对未来AI发展方向充满信心,积极布局Blackwell架构,深耕AI推理领域,扩展机器人等新兴市场,长期增长前景乐观。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the key areas of focus in Nvidia's investor relations roadshow?

The roadshow focused on Nvidia's financial health, product strategies, and future development. Key areas included the deployment of Blackwell infrastructure, market performance of Grace Hopper superchips, growth potential of generative AI, and collaborations with major cloud service providers.

Why does Nvidia expect a short-term decline in gross margins?

Nvidia anticipates a short-term decline in gross margins due to increased on-site investments by customers to establish Blackwell infrastructure. However, long-term efficiency improvements are expected to drive margins back up.

What is Nvidia's position in the AI inference market?

Nvidia holds a dominant position in the AI inference market, outperforming competitors in performance and efficiency. Their GPUs offer flexibility across different cloud platforms and local deployments, unlike ASICs which are limited to specific applications.

What long-term opportunities does Nvidia see in the robotics and autonomous driving sectors?

Nvidia identifies significant long-term opportunities in robotics and autonomous driving, offering comprehensive software and hardware solutions. They estimate a $300 billion market potential in these areas.

How is Nvidia addressing the sovereign AI market?

Nvidia is actively collaborating with various countries to develop sovereign AI capabilities. The market potential for sovereign AI is closely linked to the GDP of the respective countries, with larger economies presenting greater opportunities.

What challenges does Nvidia face in the Chinese market?

Nvidia continues to view China as an important market but faces challenges with declining data center revenues, which are significantly lower than pre-export restriction levels. The company expects this downward trend to persist.

What is the significance of system-level scaling in the context of the end of Moore's Law?

With the end of Moore's Law, Nvidia emphasizes the importance of system-level scaling for future growth. This approach is crucial as traditional transistor scaling is no longer viable, and system-level innovations will drive advancements in computing power.

How does Nvidia view the role of AI inference in the future of technology?

Nvidia believes AI inference will become increasingly important, particularly for generative AI agents and large language models. The company highlights the high computational intensity of inference tasks and the growing demand drivers in this area.

Chapters
本次路演围绕英伟达财务状况、产品策略和未来发展方向展开,重点关注Blackwell基础设施部署、Grace Hopper超级芯片市场表现、生成式AI增长潜力及与云服务提供商合作。简报中提到Blackwell架构短期内会使毛利率略降,但长期来看会回升;AI技术设施需求强劲,英伟达在AI推理领域具有优势;Networking收入下滑为短期因素,预计Q4财报将恢复增长。
  • Blackwell架构短期毛利率下降,长期回升
  • AI技术设施需求强劲
  • Networking收入下滑为短期因素
  • Blackwell需求强劲,出货量符合预期

Shownotes Transcript

每周六,周日复盘美股技术及宏观。了解更多财经信息,研报信息,交易逻辑,如内容引起您的共鸣,请订阅我们,以支持我们继续分析创作,谢谢你。

会议主要围绕英伟达的财务状况、产品策略以及未来发展方向展开讨论其中,重点关注了Blackwell基础设施的部署、Grace Hopper超级芯片的市场表现、生成式AI的增长潜力以及与主要云服务提供商的合作

英伟达强调了其在AI推理领域的主导地位以及GPU相较于ASIC的优势,并对未来几年在自动驾驶和机器人领域的长期机会表达了乐观态度。最后,会议也简要讨论了中国市场以及游戏GPU的未来规划。

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