COP29's last-minute deal is a miracle and a mess
28:16 Share

Let's face IT, good intentions aren't going to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Good science will. And that's where eliminate can help because we have the technology and they know how to remove more than a million tons of carbon every year. So lets get started because it's the responsibility of our generation to save the planet. For the next one, eliminate, removing carbon for good.

Welcome to zero. I am oxidation.

and I mightly real this week. Cop, twenty nine, nine. Big, messy deal.

Top twenty nine years over and we have a deal. I was only there for the first week. I've had a week to recover. But you've come straight to the studio directly from the airport. How the heck are you are exhausted.

But we know this is how IT ends up. This is my fourth cop. So I was a little bit prepared that we are going to have an all nighter and we are going to be waiting for a bit and we are going to be chasing for quite a bit.

And we don't know how IT ends. We are going to have to pick the pieces once everything is done. Seems there was at least a big deal, but not as much progress as people had hoped.

We're going to get into the specifics of what's in that deal and whether it's a good deal. But first, I think it's worth returning to the question we laid out on the very first day of the conference about whether either region was going to be up to the task of leading the summer in the first place. This was my first cup, and there was a lot that impressed me about how things were run in bucko.

Things went smoothly at venue. The shuttle buses to in from the book olympic stadium were very punctual. Things seemed organize pretty reliable.

The city seemed ready for this influx of visitors. The tourist district of old city baku is very charming, ready for people. Um overall, how would you rate high survival performance?

This cop, you're right, the logistics were Better than most cops. Um IT is not easy to suddenly ly have an influx of fifty thousand people who are all going to the same place and are there for official business. And so they have very little time and just need to get on with things and other byron was able to pull that off.

But we also found out that because it's an authoritarian government, they could do a lot to make this happen. Barau z traffic is pretty infamous, and we did really experience much of IT because they shut down schools and universities, asked most of their government employees to work from home. They had cleared up street vendors that shut down the so called slave markets.

Were mostly men show up for informal work, and there were no beggars to be seen, which are supposed to be a regular part of being in baku. So you have to know that for the visitors, IT wasn't what bao usually is. But yes, I didn't make the cop work Better.

So that was the experience for people in terms of interacting with the city. He was very seamless. But what about actually, when I came time to negotiate and get things passed.

there were a lot of complaints about the presidency, about muck arabia, who had never been much of her presence at cop meetings before and had never taken on a job of this level. And of course, he had, you know, ten months to prepare, and he got plenty of advice. We've learned a companies like delloye were involved in providing advice, but also host cop residents and their teams were involved.

And yet during these sophisticated, delicate negotiations between two hundred parties, there is a level of a fourth rightness. There's a level of prepared ness that a president he needs to come in with. And that was lacking. And IT really showed up towards the second week when the deal had to be done and the documents had to come in in time. But they were late, and the ingredients in those documents over things that people would agree or disagree were all over the place. And IT did seem like on saturday, which was twenty four hours later than the official deadline of cop, that things might just not fall in place and there might be no deal, and some of that plane would have been put on. The presidency itself saw them .

more difficult because we knew this was the finance cup mat alone was going to make IT art, because it's one thing to agree on some ideas on the abstract. It's another thing to agree to pay to cough up the bill. And there are two big things on the table.

One of them was the N. C, Q G, the new collective quantified goal on climate finance, the big sum that rich countries would have to commit to. Let's start with that.

That's right. Coming in. We had a lot of different analysis looking at just how much money this is going to be, how much can developing countries get from developing countries.

And when we were on the ground, we got a chance to speak to develop countries and developing countries. So take a listen to one person we spoke to who is moment? Coloured minister energy, an oil for Martinia, one of the world's poorest countries.

I think the main issue for africa is financing to mitigate the impact of the of the climate change. We get the hit because of the the climate change, if you given that military ana, we have innovation now. We have a lot of rain, desertification, a lot of issues is causing a lot of problem. So I think we need to find the a financial model where africa can be financed to electrify, to improve the skills of its workforce, to cope with the migration of people from the desert to the cities. So this is, this is really what's needed to be looked at right now.

So he was really clear that this financing number was gonna a big difference for him in terms of what his country could do to elevate standard of living and move towards a Green future. And that money .

had to come from develop countries. And we got a chance to interview the prime minister of denmark, mta, Frederica. Denmark has been historical, a country that has been quite climbed forward. But when IT comes to hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars, even they will have to figure out how exactly they will deliver that.

Some goals and targets a one thing, but delivering is the next. Of course, a country like demand should deliver. We are pushing for a ambitious target, but we also have to discuss who are going to to this because IT for me, I I am totally convinced that a country liked in much should participate and support this. But I think some of the new strong economies to participate, for example, china, but also the gulf states.

So those are the stakes of why this money was so important, and why even countries who want to support these ideas would have some concerns about the final Price tag. What was the final Price tag?

Three hundred billion dollars annually. IT will be delivered by twenty thirty five and will be ramp ed up from current levels of hundred billion dollars annually. Now if you just took inflation between now and twenty thirty five, that will already cause the two hundred billion dollars to be just worth a hundred billion dollars today.

So three hundred billion by that time is an upgrade, but is not that huge a lip. And so there were lots complaints from developing countries at the sump is too low, that how exactly the sum will be counted and where will this money flow isn't still not clear, and that's not good enough. But on the flip side, you had developed countries, many of which, as we've seen in this year of elections, have taken a rightward turn, or looking inward rather than outward, who have budget that are constrained, that are not willing to put anymore. So I was kind of a miracle that even a large sum was agreed upon. And as we saw, IT really could have all fAllen apart.

So there was a deal, but I was hard fought with a lot of trauma. Again, I was back in london by the time all this was going down. But my what's APP was exploding with hundreds of messages from the lumbar climate team, drew every twist in turn on the planet.

Yes, IT was quite something. This is my fourth cop, and we typically expect some fireworks to happen at the planet. It's like last minute weeks in glass go.

We had a face downward phase out fight. And indian china were against U. S. U. And we expected nothing last year, given this has been labeled the hardest cop since paris.

What happened is that typically at the end of the cup is a consensus, which means you, as the president say to the parties, we are going to be adopting this. Does that anybody have any objections? And if not, then the president can gavel a down and it's done.

But consensus is not unanimous ity. The president has powers to overcome objections because southern abia has blocked voting rules at cop meetings and that gives the president powers to overrule objections. And in this case, it's not clear.

But as soon as the finance deal was put forward for adoption, and question about objections was asked, very soon after the girl went down, and india immediately started weaving their hands, calling for a time out. They rushed onto the stage to talk to the president. They came back, and afterwards they got a chance to speak and they said, we are unhappy with this process.

This has been a stage managed process. This has been stage managed, and we are extremely, extremely disappointed with this incident. IT was perhaps one of the strongest push bags i've heard from a country at a cop meeting. Now just so that we are clear, there's a technical reason why india was opposing the tale.

In the current hundred billion dollars, there is a contribution from multilateral development banks such as world bank or I M F that is counted towards climate finance, because these institutions put about fifty percent of their lending into climate projects. About fifty percent of their shareholding is rich countries. So that shareholdings contribution is counted towards the climate finance school going into this three hundred billion dollar figure.

Develop countries wanted to count all of the shareholders in that goal, which would mean countries like china and india that do have shareholding in world bank and I am will also have their number counted towards the hundred billion from an any perspective that would make rich countries less responsible towards the three hundred billion because india's contributions are being counted and they did not want that. But the deal has been done, and india will have to live with that. And we'll see how this fight shakes out and whether the trust in the process that is so crucial to keep two hundred countries together remains as we going to baLance in brazil.

OK, so that was the inc. hugi. The other thing that we knew to keep an iron was article six, which talks about carbon markets and some serious details needed to be ironed out on where did things land there.

I was in the planning hall when the article six god gathered through by the president, and there were quite a lot of cheers, one observer said, probably because they are happy that never going to have to hear about article six again. And people there are .

at the week of thing. We've been talking about this for nine years, but your saying is even more than nine years.

yeah. I mean, the idea of carbon markets have been around for a long time in the nineties. We have the cuter protocol, as we've discussed on the part before.

And then article six were supposed to be an upgrade to that. And yes, IT got done. But there are still plenty of issues that remain.

There are questions around the integrity of the credits that will be traded, their questions about these new types of markets that would be Operating between two countries. So swizz land can make a deal with ghana and maybe no third party verifies what the deal is. So we'll see how things shake out.

You know, people have been talking and talking about articles six for more than a decade now. These rules have been agreed on. They will have to be modified and tweak if they're not working, if countries are not treating, as you warned, if the emissions reductions are not real and those who were hearing that, we will hear less about article seeks. I'm afraid we are going to hear a lot more about IT.

So we talked about what was in the deal, but what was not in the deal, what was conspicuously missing?

Well, there was another piece of text that was called the global stock take, which is basically the exercise that happened at the by looking at what was the progress countries had made between the park agreement in two thousand fifteen and by and obviously, we know that progress was not enough, but that was actually a numerical activity to find out just how far behind countries are and then take actions to try and improve on those numbers.

That's where we got the phrase transitioning away from fossil fuels. And there was supposed to be a document that said we are going to reaffirm what we agreed on at, and we will go further and transition away from fossil fuels and put those into the national climate plans that are supposed to be submitted over the next few months. That document in the end did not get the support of all countries, and IT has now been postponed for discussion at the next cop.

IT seems like a bit of a step backwards, because last cop, as I understand IT, one big breakthrough, one big headline, was this consensus around the need to transition away from fossil fuels. right?

correct. When what we've seen is that one actor among a few has been really pushing hard to me, both saudi arabia a because we reported that um in our stories has been pushing hard to err ise any mention of fossil fuels in not just cop meetings but many international forms like the g twenty uh and IT has had a lot of success because he just doesn't want people to be talking about transitioning from fossil fuels. And the science is very clear.

If you've signed on to the party reem goals of keeping temperature targets to one point five or two degree sales, you are going to have to reduce your use of fossil fuels. But saying IT out loud is clearly irking saudi arabia, and they don't want people to be saying IT. And we are going to see that fight play out again at the next co.

After the break, we turned to the question of one point five degrees southeast and some other unfinished left for cop thirty. If you've been enjoying the episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on spotify or apple. IT helps that their listeners find the show.

Let's face IT good intentions aren't going to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Good science will. And that's where eliminate can help, because we have the technology and they know how to remove more than a million tons of carbon every year. So lets get started because it's the responsibility of our generation to save the planet. For the next one, eliminate, removing carbon for good.

There is another thing that I heard a lot of discussion of in the first week and I know Carried on through the second week, which is the question of one point five sea. That's the level of warming the world has been trying to keep under. It's been sort of the target.

The point we don't want us to pass the feasibility of that figure has been in questioned for some time. There is one quote that caught my eye from panama, special representative for climate change, one Carlos monitary goers. And he said we needed to leave bucko with an agreement to keep the multilateral system alive. We kept the system alive, but I think one point five is dead after this cup is one point five C, A number we should still be talking about.

So this year is likely to be the first year where temperatures are going to be, on average, more than one point five degree resource relative to pre industrial levels. Now that is not the paris target. The paris target is a long term average of staying about one point five degree resources.

But scientists are clear that we are likely to surpass that too. Now within the paris agreement, there is a chance that you could go about one print for the resources and then come back down by drawing down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Technically feasible, but very expensive.

So yes, as a target that we should not reach, one point five is likely dead because we will breach IT. But the long term target of actually bringing IT back down to one point five c isn't that? And that's a thing that we heard again and again from island states at cop twenty nine.

For them, one point five sea, they call IT a death sentence. Because sea levels will rise, their homes will be indicated, they won't have places to go to. They are going to end up without homes.

And so they are not willing to move away from this target. This is the thing they will keep pushing on. And from the rest of the world's perspective, IT still makes sense to try avoid every point, one degree, southeast of warming that you can. So one point, phy is likely to remain as a rally cry, and the world will need to try to do as much as possible to avoid the worst impacts.

Cup kicked off just a couple of days after the us. Election, as we talked about in a couple of past episodes. And in the first days we are in vacco. We had a chance to catch up with indonesian special presidential envoy o and he had something interesting to say.

I move IT wary, Frankly, because of the change of government and the united states. I was in mara action in two thousand sixteen. I remember what happened.

I detect the same sort of atmosphere for voting. I hope we can work things out between the parties, but we have to be wary. And I think everybody in this conference .

where I think and I think he was onto something because we did see flickers of chaos at one point, argentina, le negotiators out of cop twenty nine and that was a risk that argentina might also quit the paris agreement as donor trumPeter said the us. Will do so um but two was the second week things come down a little bit. Argentina said they are not going to quit the paris agreement.

We had russia, uh, come out and say that actually the us. Shouldn't leave the paris agreement a twist I did not see coming and we did get a deal done. And that deal happened despite many veterans of cop like john Carrying in the united states.

He had just were in china not being present, to not have those experiences, hands, guiding the negotiations to work the end. The fact that we got a deal done is a big deal. And IT shows that the U. S. As bunches is a big power in the world, is only twelve cent of global emissions, and the rest of the world still cares about tackling climate change, and they do want to get on with the job.

So trumps election had somewhat of a limited impact. But I did feel geopolitics of this conference, who was very heavy, pretty unescapable, even in the run up to things when we were reaching out to heads of state trying to figure out who we might talk to embro. We heard from many countries like, oh, sorry, our plans are influx because there's an election on the horizon.

We heard that from ireland. We heard that from japan, this was a big election year around the world, a lot of term oil, and we saw a lot of incoming doing poorly, a populist message resonating a right word shift in a lot of major governments. How did all of that show up in your mind in those two weeks in buco?

Given climate is a decade of chAllenge, political swings are power for the course. We know that, right? Word shifts have happened in the past and limit action has continued despight.

But you're right, this moment feels more strenuous than IT has in recent years. We got a chance to speak to sophie herman's, who is the climate minister of the netherlands. And IT gives a sense of what a place that has seen a rights shift can do on climate. Because sophie now represents a four party coalition.

Two of those parties do not want to do anything on climate and to want to, and they have to come to this grand compromise, to trying to figure out how they'll meet they illegally mendte climate goals, sit within the european union, which has very ambitious climate targets, and make them all work despite the political shift. Here's what. So we had to say.

well, in this coalition, we agreed that what we standard in our law, twenty twenty targets, those are the twenty fifty targets that it's not negotiable. That's what we are going to do and what we have to to achieve. So there's no discussion about IT. And now we we have discussed how to achieve IT.

So the theme seems to be it's very messy, but on we go and that messiness wasn't just about politics and elections, but also about several wars that continue. Even as these talks played out, IT was striking to go visit the russia pavilion with its lifesize metros kells, and then right around the corner with the ukraine pavilion, which also had a very elaborate showing with these biodegradable walls covered with seeds. Both countries quite engaged in the process, even as they are also engaged in a war.

And it's not just russian ukraine. We caught up with the climate on way of israel getting in bahar, and I asked him, how do you think about climate change when there is a war happening? And how do you compare the timelines on which these two crisis have to be resolved? How are you going to agree with people you are at warrant?

You know, with the climate, glass is impacting all of us, and it's a danger for humanity at all. So we really have to to come to a consensus. Sense is here because island is part of the international community. Island is a dedicated member, are trying to make its contribution to solve the climate guys and the we are here. So we will be part of the consensus.

And we did get ideal, and we shouldn't take that for granted. The multilateral process is a delicate one, and IT is currently being put under a lot of pressure. But that's what makes IT interesting to come to a cop where all these countries do show up and josel over the fate of the planet over the next century.

There is a line in the a piece that you filed with reporters, john anger and gender luan offered that kind of stayed with me on this point. And IT was this idea that even though there was a deal, and here's the line, the process of global climate CoOperation will lurch forward from here under the weight of heavier existential questions. This was already a pretty heavy cup. How much heavy year gonna get?

Look, covering climate change day and day out, there is just no way to escape heavy existent al questions. You know, humanity is likely to survive this period, but perhaps in a very poor state, if IT doesn't do much, and perhaps in a very good state, if IT does a lot. But the heavy questions here are quite real.

We've talked about so many of them. The right would turn to politics, wars happening, the creaking of the multilateral system, the rise of competition instead of CoOperation, the inward turn of countries in a time when global crisis that require global responses are growing. That's what makes this beat so dynamic. That's what makes the progress so interesting, because the forces against IT are so strong. And to me, the question at the heart of this equation is whether we can all work together toward progress.

We've already been looking ahead to cop thirty. Or in our last episode, you spoke to brazil, andre korea, logo, the secretary for climate, energy and the environment. Brazil, the next toast, they are planning all the conference on.

But lam, the great way to the amazon, a place that, again, like bucko, isn't necessarily used to big influx of visitors. He was very cheerful and candid about all of this. He said brazil wasn't onna try to hide its problems. Brazil was committed to leaving by example and embracing some of those whose contradictions, given how things ended, embark a what can we expect in villain?

There are a lot of expectations being put on cop thirty in billiam. One is that given we are behind these new national climate plans that countries have to submit, have to be much more ambitious with the deal on finance and bake u, that becomes a little easier because countries will have so called conditional climate plans where they say if this money does come through, as was promised, we'll be able to do so much more to cut emissions.

But the other thing about this finance deal is that although three hundred billion dollars were agreed to, the needs for foreign investments into developing countries is about one point three trillion dollars per year that was acknowledged in the final deal. And there is going to be a road to baLance program that is going to work on figuring out how to increase the sum of climate finance from three hundred billion to one point three trillion. What exactly are these innovative financial instruments that could be used to make that happen? So brazil already had a lot to do and now has got more on this table.

But IT seems brazil is really committed on making this belek P A. Real success. And theyve already begun that job as part of the stroke card that was created between twenty eight, twenty twenty nine and cup thirty. And a lot of people are very excited about what's to come.

I thank you.

Thank you. And just to add, all of this work is not work that we do have alone with a big team from glumm, a Green on the ground and and all of our coverage from those two weeks. As free to read, please do go check out loomer dot com for a slash reen everything .

you need know about cop twenty nine and cop thirty.

Thank you for listening to zero. And now for the sound of the week. In the one three afternoon I had in macao, I went to visit mudd volcano oes, which released mEthane.

But the most memorable thing was the ride to the volkan ino's, which happened in a thousand and eighty seven russian lot of four by four, a vehicle as all as I am, and one that felt like went at rocket speed on unpaved roads while I SAT behind, holding on for dear life. If you like this episode, please take a moment to read and review the show on apple podcast and spotify. Share this episode with a friend or with someone who still believes in the united nations.

You can get in touch a zero power at bloomberg dot net zeros. Producer is my thly rw. Bloomberg had a podcast, a sage bowman, and head of talk is brain. Una art music is composed by wonderly, special thanks to show one regner Sharon generali Alfred sung, john Angel NASA White will can be rockin category and iron rocky I.