cover of episode U.S. Friends and Foes Brace for Second Trump Term

U.S. Friends and Foes Brace for Second Trump Term

2024/11/8
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Dan Michaels
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Luke Vargas
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Luke Vargas: 特朗普当选后，美国及其盟友和敌对势力都在为变化做准备。 特朗普计划重启对伊朗的“最大压力”行动，大幅增加对德黑兰的制裁，限制其石油销售。 特朗普对伊朗的“最大压力”策略在减少伊朗安全部门资金方面取得成功，但在阻止其代理人行动和核计划方面失败。 特朗普任命苏西·怀尔斯为白宫幕僚长，这是美国历史上首位担任此职的女性。 人们担心特朗普会削减对乌克兰的支持，或迫使欧洲北约成员国承担更多责任。 澳大利亚政府提议禁止16岁以下儿童使用社交媒体，澳大利亚总理认为政府干预是必要的，以应对社交媒体对年轻人的负面影响。 澳大利亚的提案与其他司法管辖区的做法不同，它将责任推给社交媒体平台本身。 澳大利亚的提案不包括父母同意选项，并将测试各种技术来加强年龄验证。 澳大利亚的立法将在未来几周提交议会，并在通过一年后生效。 特朗普的当选可能会使电动汽车制造商更难实现盈利，特朗普对电动汽车持怀疑态度，可能会取消一些电动汽车补贴。 中国最高立法机关批准地方政府用特别用途债券置换部分隐性债务，但没有采取新的财政刺激措施。 特朗普胜选后日元跌至三个月低点，日本财务大臣表示政府正密切关注汇市。 积极投资者卡尔·伊坎认为股市存在机会，并将利用其投资公司的股息来增加资金。 以色列足球球迷在阿姆斯特丹遭到袭击后，以色列正在派遣飞机撤离其公民。 Dan Michaels: 许多人对特朗普对乌克兰战争的立场感到担忧和疑惑，不确定他会采取何种行动。 人们担心特朗普会削减对乌克兰的支持，或迫使欧洲北约成员国承担更多责任。 欧洲担心，仓促的和平协议可能会迫使乌克兰放弃领土，为其他国家树立危险的先例。 欧洲和美国都担心，仓促的协议将不得不按照普京的条件达成，这可能包括乌克兰放弃目前被俄罗斯占领的领土。 欧洲担心，如果安抚普京并满足他的要求，这不会满足他的胃口，反而会进一步增加他的胃口。 如果美国减少或切断对乌克兰的支持，欧洲将不得不承担更多的经济负担。 欧洲一直向乌克兰提供与美国同等价值的支持，但其方式不同，这将给欧洲预算带来压力。 特朗普过去曾对北约成员国的贡献采取强硬立场，并表示不会保护那些对联盟贡献不足的盟友。 尽管许多北约国家增加了国防开支，但特朗普可能会造成更多摩擦。 欧洲经济疲软，政府难以在国防开支和社会开支之间取得平衡。 特朗普计划对伊朗采取强硬立场，而以色列总理内塔尼亚胡则庆祝特朗普的胜利。 特朗普对中国的立场可能比拜登更符合美国传统，但中国对特朗普的当选感到担忧。 特朗普承诺的贸易政策，例如对中国产品征收60%的关税，将损害中国经济。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why might European NATO members be concerned about a second Trump term?

Trump has criticized European NATO members as freeloaders and may push them to increase defense spending, which could strain their budgets amid economic weakness and social spending pressures.

What is Trump's planned approach to Iran in his second term?

Trump plans to renew the 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran, drastically increasing sanctions on Tehran and targeting foreign ports and traders handling Iranian oil to undercut Iran's nuclear program and support for proxy groups.

How might Trump's foreign policy stance affect Ukraine?

Trump has been critical of the war in Ukraine and may cut support, pushing NATO members to take more of the load, which could lead to a hasty peace deal on unfavorable terms for Ukraine and increase European concerns about Russian aggression.

What are the potential implications of Trump's presidency for China?

China is nervous about Trump's trade policies, such as a 60% tariff on Chinese products, which could harm the Chinese economy and force it to seek new markets. Additionally, Trump's stance on Taiwan may align more with traditional U.S. policy, but China hawks within his administration could push for increased military readiness against China.

What is the Australian government proposing regarding social media for children?

Australia is proposing a national ban on social media for children under 16, comparing it to age limits on alcohol sales, and placing the onus on social media platforms to enforce age verification through technologies like biometrics and AI.

How might Trump's presidency impact the profitability of EV startups like Rivian?

Trump has been skeptical about EVs and may unwind subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, making it harder for EV makers to achieve profitability amid tepid demand and high manufacturing costs.

Chapters
Trump's second term is expected to renew the 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran and could alter support for Ukraine and NATO allies.
  • Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran, targeting foreign ports and traders handling Iranian oil.
  • Concerns about Trump cutting support for Ukraine, potentially pushing NATO members to take more responsibility.
  • European allies are nervous about potential reduced U.S. support and increased defense spending pressures.

Shownotes Transcript

A.M. Edition for Nov. 8. President-elect Donald Trump taps his campaign co-chair) as his chief of staff as a key pillar of his future foreign policy takes shape: a renewal of his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran). WSJ Brussels bureau chief Dan Michaels) explains how Washington’s adversaries and allies are preparing for the new administration. Plus, Australia proposes a national ban on social media for children younger than 16. And Israel prepares to evacuate its citizens from the Netherlands after antisemitic attacks in Amsterdam). Luke Vargas hosts.

Correction: Australia has proposed a ban on social media for children under 16. An earlier version of this podcast incorrectly said the ban would have applied to 16-year-olds as well. (Corrected on Nov. 8)

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