cover of episode Trump, Tariffs and Taxes: How He’ll Turn Campaign Promises Into Policy

Trump, Tariffs and Taxes: How He’ll Turn Campaign Promises Into Policy

2024/11/10
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卢克·瓦加斯
布莱恩·施瓦茨
特朗普
美国企业家、政治人物及媒体名人,曾任第45任和第47任美国总统。
理查德·鲁宾
Topics
特朗普:承诺通过减税、加征关税和放松管制来振兴美国经济,并偿还债务。具体措施包括:大幅减税,取消对小费、加班费和社保福利的税收,恢复州和地方税收抵免,对外国商品加征10%到20%的关税。 卢克·瓦加斯:探讨特朗普如何将竞选承诺转化为实际政策,以及他需要哪些工具或政治支持。 布莱恩·施瓦茨:特朗普拥有广泛的权力来自行实施关税,即使是对盟友国家的进口商品。他曾在第一任期内轻松地克服了企业对关税的反对。他似乎对企业领导人对关税的反对置之不理,并受到身边一些商业领袖的支持。他可能会放松气候、科技、人工智能和金融领域的监管,并关注加密货币行业的监管。 理查德·鲁宾:国会不太可能阻止特朗普实施关税,因为国会先前已经赋予总统相关的权力。特朗普2017年签署的减税法案中的许多条款将在2025年到期,共和党人希望延长这些条款,但特朗普也提出了其他昂贵的减税承诺。财政部可以自行采取一些措施,但重大的税收变革需要国会批准。关于恢复州和地方税收抵免的问题,共和党内部存在分歧。共和党内部在减税和减少赤字之间存在矛盾,偿还债务是不现实的,因为美国财政赤字巨大。特朗普政府可能会修改《通胀削减法案》中的法规。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

How can President-elect Trump implement tariffs without congressional approval?

Trump can use executive orders to impose tariffs under existing statutes designed for unfair trade practices and national security, leveraging his mandate from the electorate.

Why might some business leaders resist Trump's tariff plans?

Companies, particularly retailers, may object due to potential increased costs and retaliatory measures from trading partners, affecting their bottom line and supply chains.

What role does Congress play in Trump's tariff policies?

Congress has granted broad tariff authority to the president, making it difficult to revoke or enact new tariffs without significant congressional support or votes.

What are the key tax proposals Trump has outlined?

Trump aims to extend 2017 tax cuts, eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, and restore the state and local tax deduction, among other costly promises.

Which tax proposals require congressional approval?

Major changes like eliminating taxes on overtime and Social Security benefits, and restoring the state and local tax deduction, need congressional approval due to their significant financial impact.

How might deficit concerns impact Trump's tax plans?

Republicans prioritizing tax cuts may clash with those focused on deficit reduction, leading to debates on how much additional deficit expansion they are willing to tolerate.

What are the potential areas for deregulation under Trump?

Trump is likely to target regulations in climate, tech, artificial intelligence, finance, and cryptocurrency, potentially with the help of industry-friendly advisors like Elon Musk.

Can the president eliminate regulations without congressional involvement?

While the president can initiate deregulation, agencies must go through formal processes, and some regulations may require congressional approval or action.

What specific regulations might Trump target first?

Potential early targets include Inflation Reduction Act regulations and cryptocurrency industry regulations, given their political and financial implications.

Chapters
This chapter discusses Trump's authority to impose tariffs and the potential pushback from businesses and Congress.
  • Trump can impose tariffs through executive orders.
  • Businesses, particularly retailers, are likely to object to tariffs.
  • Congress lacks the clout to pull back tariff authorities granted to the president.

Shownotes Transcript

President-elect Donald Trump made lots of promises on the campaign trail to revive what he called a “weakened” U.S. economy. That includes “gigantic tax cuts” for workers and tariffs of more than 60% on goods imported from China and elsewhere. He also pledged to slash regulations, even floating the idea of making Tesla CEO Elon Musk the head of a Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. But how will he turn those economic promises into reality? WSJ economic policy reporter Brian Schwartz) and U.S. tax policy reporter Richard Rubin) explain how Trump could take executive action, where he might need help from Congress and why some business leaders may put up resistance to some of his economic plans. Luke Vargas hosts.

Further Reading

What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy

Trump’s Comeback Reverberates Through Markets

What a Trump Win Means for Immigration, Wall Street, Foreign Policy and Healthcare

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