cover of episode How Trump’s Policies Could Ripple Through the Housing Market

How Trump’s Policies Could Ripple Through the Housing Market

2024/12/5
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Elizabeth Findel
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主持人Kate Bullivant概述了特朗普的移民和贸易政策可能对房地产市场造成的影响,指出建筑业领袖们正在为此做准备,因为这会导致房价上涨。这与特朗普竞选期间承诺降低房价的承诺相矛盾。 记者Elizabeth Findel详细阐述了这一问题。她指出,非法移民构成了建筑业劳动力的很大一部分,如果他们被驱逐出境,建筑公司将难以填补这些职位空缺。此外,特朗普提出的对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税将导致建材成本上涨。这些因素共同作用将导致房价上涨,并可能导致房地产市场降温。Findel还援引了一项研究,该研究表明,之前的驱逐行动导致受影响地区的房屋价格上涨了20%。她强调,建筑商们已经难以找到工人,即使在失业率很高的情况下,许多美国本土工人也不愿意从事建筑业中体力要求高的工作。 记者Elizabeth Findel详细分析了特朗普的移民和贸易政策对建筑业和房地产市场的影响。她指出,非法移民占建筑业劳动力的很大一部分,他们的驱逐将导致劳动力短缺,推高工资成本。同时,对进口建材征收关税将进一步增加建筑成本。这些因素的综合作用将导致房价上涨,这与特朗普竞选期间承诺降低房价的承诺相矛盾。她还提到,之前的驱逐行动已经导致房屋价格上涨,这为特朗普政策的潜在影响提供了先例。她强调,建筑商们普遍担心劳动力短缺问题,因为即使在高失业率的情况下,也很难找到愿意从事体力劳动工作的美国本土工人。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are construction leaders concerned about Trump's immigration and trade policies?

Immigrants make up a significant portion of the construction workforce, with 13% estimated to be undocumented. Deportations could lead to labor shortages, while tariffs on imports like wood and steel could increase material costs.

How could Trump's deportation policies impact the housing market?

Previous deportation efforts led to a 20% increase in home prices and a year's worth of lost construction in affected counties. With millions potentially deported, builders expect higher home prices and slower construction due to labor shortages.

What role do immigrants play in the construction industry?

Immigrants, including undocumented workers, perform many of the physically demanding jobs in construction, such as framing houses and laying pipes. They are crucial for maintaining the workforce, especially in areas with extreme weather conditions.

How might tariffs on imports affect the construction industry?

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which supply significant amounts of wood and steel, could raise the cost of building materials by 7.3%. This would exacerbate existing housing shortages and increase home prices.

Why are builders struggling to fill construction jobs despite high unemployment?

Most native-born Americans are unwilling to take physically demanding construction jobs, especially in extreme heat. This has led to a reliance on immigrant labor, both documented and undocumented.

Shownotes Transcript

A.M. Edition for Dec. 5. Home builders are warning that Donald Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and introduce new tariffs on U.S. imports could have a chilling effect on the industry. The WSJ’s Elizabeth Findell) says this could push up already-elevated housing costs). Plus, Pete Hegseth says he’s “not going anywhere)” as he fights to salvage his bid to become Trump’s defense secretary. And Bitcoin smashes the $100,000 ceiling) thanks to hopes of a crypto-friendly Washington. Kate Bullivant hosts.

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