cover of episode Harris and Trump Both See Paths to Victory

Harris and Trump Both See Paths to Victory

2024/11/5
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L
Luke Vargas
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Molly Ball
Topics
Molly Ball: 对Harris和Trump阵营的民调数据分析显示,本次大选结果非常接近。Harris阵营的数据显示未决定的选民倾向于Harris,这部分归因于Trump最近的争议。民主党对自己的地面战很有信心,进行了大量的宣传活动。而共和党对Trump的地面战缺乏了解,对一些外部组织的有效性表示怀疑。提前投票结果并不能很好地预测最终结果。共和党也有一些令人鼓舞的迹象,Trump的民调支持率达到了历史新高,成功动员了许多非传统选民。女性选民的涌入以及非传统选民或第三方选民的涌入都可能改变选举结果。最后,Molly Ball分析了Harris和Trump的竞选策略,Harris没有努力争取那些民主党过去失去的蓝领选民,而是专注于受过教育的郊区选民,试图通过承诺中间立场来争取那些对Trump感到失望的温和派选民。而Trump的核心信息在过去三次总统竞选中几乎没有改变,仍然是"我们对抗他们"的叙事。 Jen O'Malley-Dillon: 一些关键摇摆州的最终结果可能需要几天时间才能确定。 Luke Vargas: 对本次大选的概述,以及对波音罢工事件的报道。 Sharon Turlip: 波音公司罢工每月损失约10亿美元,此次协议将有助于解决生产问题,但罢工对供应链的影响还有待观察。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are both the Harris and Trump campaigns confident about their chances of winning the election?

The Harris campaign sees undecided voters breaking in their favor due to recent controversies involving Trump, while Trump's strong polling position and ability to galvanize nontraditional voters give his campaign confidence.

What are the key factors influencing the Harris campaign's confidence?

Strong ground game, high early vote turnout in key demographics like African-American voters in Detroit, and a shift in undecided voters towards Harris.

What concerns do Republicans have about their ground game?

Skepticism about the effectiveness of outside groups like Elon Musk's America PAC in turning out low propensity voters, who may not vote without personal contact.

Why might the election outcome differ from current polls?

Potential surge in women voters, high turnout among nontraditional voters, and the influence of third-party candidates like RFK Jr. could reshape the electorate.

What is the Harris campaign's strategy for winning over voters?

Focus on suburban, educated, and women voters, promising to govern from the middle and include Republicans in decision-making.

Why might the election results take several days to be known?

Expectations of partial results from key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona, with full results potentially taking longer due to high turnout and mail-in voting.

What impact did the Boeing strike have on the company?

Boeing was losing about a billion dollars a month, facing production issues, and needed to address quality, morale, and supply chain disruptions.

How did Joe Rogan's endorsement of Trump potentially influence the election?

Rogan's endorsement, influenced by Elon Musk, could motivate young men to vote for Trump, a demographic crucial for Republican turnout.

Chapters
Both the Harris and Trump campaigns are confident in their chances of winning the election, with internal data showing close races and undecided voters breaking in their favor.
  • Harris campaign sees undecided voters breaking in their direction.
  • Trump's strong polling position and ability to galvanize nontraditional voters.
  • Democrats' confidence in their ground game and early vote turnout.

Shownotes Transcript

A.M. Edition for Nov. 5. WSJ senior political correspondent Molly Ball) recaps the closing arguments) made by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and the evidence giving both sides confidence they can win. Plus, the Harris campaign cautions the winner of the race may not be known for “several days).” And striking Boeing machinists agree to a new labor deal), ending a paralyzing work stoppage for the plane maker. Luke Vargas hosts.

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