Syria falls: Russia and Iran await Trump's response

2024/12/9

World in 10

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Alex Dibble

Alexander Betts

Major General Chip Chapman

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Alex Dibble: 本期节目讨论了叙利亚阿萨德政权垮台后，其主要支持者俄罗斯和伊朗的立场，以及美国可能做出的回应。叙利亚总统阿萨德已寻求俄罗斯的政治庇护，这使得俄罗斯和伊朗在该地区的地位显著削弱。 Alexander Betts: 叙利亚的未来充满不确定性。反对派联盟夺取了大马士革的控制权，但其内部存在不同的派别，其中包括与ISIS有联系的组织。这可能会导致叙利亚成为一个脆弱的国家，容易受到极端主义和地区大国干预的影响。伊朗虽然地缘政治地位减弱，但其通过代理组织（如真主党、哈马斯等）仍然能够在地区冲突中发挥破坏性作用。美国对叙利亚局势的回应至关重要，这将决定美国是否会积极参与叙利亚的未来走向，以及地区大国是否能够自由地影响叙利亚的政治局势。此外，土耳其在叙利亚的军事行动可能导致ISIS极端分子被释放，从而带来新的安全威胁。俄罗斯在叙利亚的参与是为了制造不稳定，并以此对西方施加压力。阿萨德流亡后，不太可能卷土重来，但俄罗斯在叙利亚的未来立场仍存在不确定性。 Major General Chip Chapman: 俄罗斯在叙利亚的军事基地对其影响力至关重要，失去这些基地将削弱其在该地区的影响力。 Alexander Betts: 阿萨德政权的垮台给叙利亚带来了不确定性，未来可能面临分裂和极端主义抬头。伊朗虽然地缘政治地位减弱，但其通过代理组织进行的不稳定性和破坏性行为使其仍然具有影响力。美国对叙利亚局势的回应至关重要，这将决定美国是否会积极参与叙利亚的未来走向，以及地区大国是否能够自由地影响叙利亚的政治局势。此外，土耳其在叙利亚的军事行动可能导致ISIS极端分子被释放，从而带来新的安全威胁。俄罗斯在叙利亚的参与是为了制造不稳定，并以此对西方施加压力。阿萨德流亡后，不太可能卷土重来，但俄罗斯在叙利亚的未来立场仍存在不确定性。 Major General Chip Chapman: 俄罗斯在叙利亚的军事基地对其影响力至关重要，失去这些基地将削弱其在该地区的影响力。失去在叙利亚的军事基地，特别是位于拉塔基亚省的空军基地和塔尔图斯的海军基地，将严重削弱俄罗斯在非洲和地中海地区的军事投射能力。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Russia grant asylum to Syrian President Assad?

Russia saw an opportunity to create interference and meddle in the plans of the West by destabilizing Syria, fomenting refugee movements, and destabilizing Europe.

How might the fall of Assad affect Iran's influence in Syria?

Iran is geopolitically weakened but remains unpredictable and influential through proxy groups like Hezbollah, making it a potential spoiler in Syria's instability.

What role might the US play in the future of Syria?

The US's engagement will signal whether it will intervene or stay on the sidelines, influencing regional powers' actions and potentially balancing Iranian and Russian power.

How could the removal of Russia's military bases in Syria impact Putin's strategy?

The loss of air and naval bases would weaken Russia's ability to project power into the Mediterranean and Africa, complicating its military operations in those regions.

What are the potential risks if Turkey acts militarily in Syria?

Turkey's military action could sweep away Kurdish influence, potentially releasing ISIS militants from Kurdish-run prisons and detention camps, creating new security threats.

Chapters

The Assad regime in Syria has fallen after a coup by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The future is uncertain, with a coalition of rebels in control. Concerns exist about the potential for extremism and the role of regional powers.

Assad regime falls after HTS coup
Uncertain future for Syria
Concerns about extremism and regional power involvement

Shownotes Transcript

As Syrian President Assad claims asylum in Russia, the World in 10 analyses the positions of his main backers, Iran and Russia, with the US's response thought to be key. Oxford University professor of forced migration & international affairs, Alexander Betts, looks at their options.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.

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Syria falls: Russia and Iran await Trump's response 10:18 Share