The Biden administration's approach is considered failing because it lacks a clear strategy, has made policy changes reactively, and has not provided timely or sufficient military aid to Ukraine. The administration has also been criticized for its legalistic and cautious approach, which has not effectively supported Ukraine's military needs.
The timing of policy changes has been criticized because they have often been delayed, reactive, and out of sequence with Ukrainian military operations. For example, the administration provided cluster munitions and other critical weapons after key offensives, which limited their effectiveness in shaping the battlefield.
The U.S. faces challenges in providing effective support to Ukraine due to a lack of a clear theory of victory, limited funding, and inventory issues. Additionally, the administration's reluctance and timing in lifting restrictions on military aid have hindered Ukraine's ability to stabilize the front and achieve operational success.
Ukraine's manpower problem is critical because it affects the sustainability of its military efforts. Despite having equipment and ammunition, the lack of sufficient personnel to man and operate these resources is a significant obstacle. The issue is compounded by political will and public sentiment, as many Ukrainians are reluctant to be mobilized.
A security compact involving the UK, Baltic countries, and Poland is considered a potential solution because it provides a credible security guarantee without directly implicating NATO or the United States. The UK, with its serious military and nuclear deterrent, adds significant weight to the compact, making it a viable alternative for Ukraine's security needs.
NATO membership for Ukraine is unlikely in the near future due to the lack of political will and resources from key NATO members, particularly the United States. The U.S. is not willing to commit the necessary forces and operational plans to defend Ukraine, and other European countries, such as Germany, are also unlikely to support such a move.
Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly.