cover of episode Waiting for a Theory of Victory in Ukraine

Waiting for a Theory of Victory in Ukraine

2024/12/4
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War on the Rocks

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Mike Kofman
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Ryan Evans
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Ryan Evans认为,美国对乌克兰的政策缺乏清晰的战略,在资金使用和武器供应方面存在问题,乌克兰一直在输掉战争,需要改变策略才能避免在2025年出现糟糕的结果。拜登政府试图尽可能地减少资金支出,并且在武器供应政策上摇摆不定,对军事力量和装备采取了一种近乎虚无主义的观点。拜登政府在对乌克兰战争的处理方式上存在缺陷,尤其是在最后一年半的时间里,将对俄战争视为某种法律谈判,而不是军事实力和政治意志的较量。 Mike Kofman认为,拜登政府的政策选择往往是被迫做出的,时机选择不佳,导致俄罗斯军队有时间适应和调整。美国政府对武器供应的时机选择不佳,导致其军事优势未能充分发挥。解除对导弹袭击俄罗斯基础设施的限制,不太可能阻止朝鲜参与战争。俄罗斯会利用朝鲜提供的兵力,解除导弹限制的策略是基于一种法律主义的军事战略。美国政府在对乌克兰的军事援助决策上存在政治孤立和时机选择不当的问题,武器装备的供应时机至关重要,对战争进程的影响很大。对某些武器系统的关注过度,而忽略了其他重要因素。美国政府在武器供应决策上的前后矛盾之处,缺乏一致性,其理由前后矛盾。 Ryan Evans认为,拜登政府缺乏明确的乌克兰战争胜利理论,也没有提出积极的政治解决方案,美国政府在乌克兰加入北约问题上的立场摇摆不定,对乌克兰加入北约的立场存在不一致性。 Mike Kofman认为,特朗普政府需要首先考虑是否提供安全保障,其次需要考虑哪些国家提供安全保障以及保障范围。乌克兰希望得到来自美国的安全保障,并且希望所有1991年边界内的乌克兰领土都能够加入北约。美国需要明确其对乌克兰安全保障的承诺内容,以及是否需要在乌克兰部署军队。美国不太可能大幅增加在欧洲的军事部署以履行对乌克兰的安全保障承诺。泽连斯基试图说服特朗普政府,乌克兰将增加在欧洲的军队部署。特朗普政府将面临乌克兰战争的严峻局面,缺乏明确的成功策略。俄罗斯目前认为自己正在赢得战争,因此不太可能主动寻求谈判。俄罗斯对谈判并不真诚,他们认为自己正在赢得战争。俄罗斯的目标不仅仅是占领顿巴斯地区,还包括控制乌克兰政府。俄罗斯对乌克兰的诉求包括限制乌克兰的主权、中立化以及限制乌克兰的军事力量。俄罗斯可能在谈判中拖延时间,同时继续进行军事行动。特朗普政府可能会增加对乌克兰的支持,以期稳定战线。特朗普政府不太可能立即停止对乌克兰的支持。特朗普政府可能会增加对乌克兰的军事援助,并解除更多限制。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the Biden administration's approach to Ukraine's war considered failing?

The Biden administration's approach is considered failing because it lacks a clear strategy, has made policy changes reactively, and has not provided timely or sufficient military aid to Ukraine. The administration has also been criticized for its legalistic and cautious approach, which has not effectively supported Ukraine's military needs.

Why has the timing of policy changes been criticized in the context of the war?

The timing of policy changes has been criticized because they have often been delayed, reactive, and out of sequence with Ukrainian military operations. For example, the administration provided cluster munitions and other critical weapons after key offensives, which limited their effectiveness in shaping the battlefield.

Why is the U.S. facing challenges in providing effective support to Ukraine?

The U.S. faces challenges in providing effective support to Ukraine due to a lack of a clear theory of victory, limited funding, and inventory issues. Additionally, the administration's reluctance and timing in lifting restrictions on military aid have hindered Ukraine's ability to stabilize the front and achieve operational success.

Why is Ukraine's manpower problem considered a critical issue in the war?

Ukraine's manpower problem is critical because it affects the sustainability of its military efforts. Despite having equipment and ammunition, the lack of sufficient personnel to man and operate these resources is a significant obstacle. The issue is compounded by political will and public sentiment, as many Ukrainians are reluctant to be mobilized.

Why is a security compact involving the UK, Baltic countries, and Poland considered a potential solution for Ukraine's security?

A security compact involving the UK, Baltic countries, and Poland is considered a potential solution because it provides a credible security guarantee without directly implicating NATO or the United States. The UK, with its serious military and nuclear deterrent, adds significant weight to the compact, making it a viable alternative for Ukraine's security needs.

Why is NATO membership for Ukraine unlikely in the near future?

NATO membership for Ukraine is unlikely in the near future due to the lack of political will and resources from key NATO members, particularly the United States. The U.S. is not willing to commit the necessary forces and operational plans to defend Ukraine, and other European countries, such as Germany, are also unlikely to support such a move.

Shownotes Transcript

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly.