cover of episode The Trump economy: How big? How beautiful?

The Trump economy: How big? How beautiful?

2024/11/7
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A
Aiden Reiter
经济分析师和评论家,专注于税收政策、贸易政策和移民政策等领域的分析。
K
Katie Martin
一名在《金融时报》工作的金融记者和评论员,专注于全球经济政策和市场趋势分析。
R
Robert Armstrong
以深入分析和解释当前金融市场趋势而闻名的《金融时报》记者和播客主持人。
Topics
Katie Martin认为市场对特朗普当选总统作出了积极反应,股市上涨,但同时也担心特朗普的政策会导致通货膨胀。她认为美元升值可能会抵消关税的影响,并且不确定特朗普对强势美元或弱势美元的立场。她也对特朗普能否在其政策导致通货膨胀的情况下坚持其政策立场表示怀疑。 Robert Armstrong认为特朗普的减税和增加开支政策会导致赤字增加和长期债券收益率上升。他还认为,特朗普的移民政策会导致通货膨胀。他预测特朗普如果面临市场压力,可能会放弃一些导致通货膨胀的政策。他认为特朗普会将强势美元视为其他国家操纵货币贬值。 Aiden Reiter认为特朗普的减税政策会提振股市,尤其对美国国内公司有利。他预测核心通货膨胀率在短期内不会有太大变化,但长期来看可能会达到4.6%。他还认为特朗普会坚持其核心政策承诺,因为这些政策更多是政治声明,而不是出于经济考虑。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion revolves around whether Trump's policies will lead to inflation, focusing on tax cuts, immigration, and tariffs.
  • Trump's policies include tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and tariffs, which could lead to inflation.
  • Higher deficits and reduced labor supply could push up wages and prices.
  • The impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar could counterbalance some inflationary effects.

Shownotes Transcript

If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and go long the American project. 

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