cover of episode Looking at 2025

Looking at 2025

2024/11/21
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AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Aiden
K
Katie Martin
一名在《金融时报》工作的金融记者和评论员，专注于全球经济政策和市场趋势分析。
R
Robert Armstrong
以深入分析和解释当前金融市场趋势而闻名的《金融时报》记者和播客主持人。
Topics
Katie Martin认为美国市场将在2025年继续保持强势，即使特朗普的政策存在不确定性，由于缺乏其他选择，全球投资者仍将投资美国市场。她也指出，市场对人工智能的热情可能存在泡沫，并对当前的低利率环境和高股市估值表示担忧。Robert Armstrong同意美国市场表现强劲，但也提醒投资者注意十年期国债收益率上升和公司债券利差收窄的风险。他认为，由于缺乏真正的经济衰退，很难判断当前的经济周期阶段。Aiden则关注就业市场的复杂性和美联储的货币政策走向，并认为市场对通货膨胀和利率的看法存在矛盾。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The consensus among investment houses and big banks is that America will continue to dominate markets in 2025, driven by Trump's policies and the lack of alternatives globally.
  • Consensus view is that America will continue to lead markets.
  • Trump's policies are expected to suck growth and exports away from the rest of the world.
  • There is uncertainty about the implementation of Trump's policies and their potential impact.

Shownotes Transcript

It is the season for giving and banks are giving us a lot of year-ahead reports. Katie, Robert and Aiden actually read these things, and today on the show they discuss what they’ve learned. It all raises questions about very narrow corporate spreads, an AI bubble and what happens if things go right in the jobs market, or wrong in the Middle East. Also we go long hair products, short turkey and limit long Josh Kushner’s big bet against diversification. 

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