cover of episode Do the markets even care about the US election?

Do the markets even care about the US election?

2024/11/5
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People
K
Katie Martin
一名在《金融时报》工作的金融记者和评论员，专注于全球经济政策和市场趋势分析。
R
Robert Armstrong
以深入分析和解释当前金融市场趋势而闻名的《金融时报》记者和播客主持人。
U
Unknown
通过Ramsey Network的播客节目，提供实用财务建议和生活指导。
Topics
Katie Martin认为市场对美国大选结果难以预测，大型机构投资者持中性态度，而对冲基金则大多押注特朗普获胜。她还指出，最新的疲软就业报告几乎确保了美联储将降息25个基点，并可能在12月再次降息。Robert Armstrong认为，市场对大选结果没有明确的预期，并指出特朗普上次当选后的股市上涨是因为其减税承诺，而这次情况不同。他认为，对冲基金可能押注特朗普会再次尝试减税，从而利好股票、做空债券并做多美元。他还表示，市场普遍喜欢确定性，大选结果的拖延将会对市场情绪造成负面影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts discuss whether the markets are affected by the US election, noting that the outcome is uncertain and the markets are not always predictable.
  • Markets are not always predictable and can surprise even with significant events like elections.
  • The 2016 election saw a strong market reaction due to the surprise victory and promised corporate tax cuts.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s election day. Everyone is freaking out. But the prices of some major commodities and indices remain stoically calm. We investigate. Also, we go long nuclear power, long bees and limit long a squirrel named Peanut.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected]) and Katie Martin at [email protected]). 

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