cover of episode 285: Recreational Computing

285: Recreational Computing

2024/1/18
logo of podcast Under the Radar

Under the Radar

AI Chapters Transcript
Chapters
The Apple Vision Pro was announced earlier than expected, on January 8th. Preorders open on January 19th, with deliveries starting February 2nd. The hosts discuss their excitement for the new platform and their expectations for the app market, comparing it to the Apple TV app market.
  • Apple Vision Pro announced on January 8th
  • Preorders open January 19th, deliveries February 2nd
  • App market compared to Apple TV, not expected to be hugely profitable initially

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Welcome to under the rear show about independent IOS APP development I C armant and am David Smith .

under the the raw is usually no longer than thirty minutes. So let's get started.

It's time.

It's time. Like when they said early, they meant early. I think essentially, we talk about the apple vision pro, which was and announced on january eighth that we have like definitive timelines and things for.

And essentially IT was the earliest st that you could reasonably expect them to announce anything in twenty twenty four. You know, that was the first monday of the first non holiday week of that I was announced. And so when they said early, they really meant IT. And I wasn't know early as in before the summer. So this IT was early as in the first day possible.

I admit that i'm not that surprised because i've gotten the feeling for a while that IT IT was going to be january or february. And so I am happy to be kind of right about that because i'm excited about the vision per honestly. Excuse me, I found out about apple vision pro. Yeah cannot use the you have to use apple anyway, going to set that site immediately.

I'm excited about the vision pro because even though I don't think it's gonna be a great story for any developers in in terms of like numbers and we will talk about I don't see the market for india apps for any apps on the vision pro being profitable for pretty much anybody for a long time and possibly forever. The way i'm looking at IT is very much like the apple TV APP market. There is a role here for apps of a certain type.

Not every APP makes sense on IT, but there is a role for certain apps. But overall, it's not gonna like a bustling at market. The difference though is that the apple TV is of single purpose appliance to me. I like, I like my apple TV, but it's a single purpose appliance.

And so I don't really need to do things like browse real state listings on IT or some of the other things they broke my clothing co og of vote and shopping for, like the various things they showed off and they first watched after the apple TV. Most of those things of things I don't really need to do on my TV or want to do on my T. V.

And my other devices can do with Better. The difference with the division pro is that, first of all, I think I can do a lot more than just watch movies and sult. And while I think it'll be great to watching movies and it's clearly the launch priority here, IT can do a lot more than that.

And it's a much more chatting platform. And it's something that I I am actually interested in using for more things than just watching some streaming services like I do with my apple TV. So I think the the difference with division pro is not that there will be a larger APP market IT won't be um but that i'm more excited about myself and about jumping in this platform just like messing around with .

stuff yeah exactly like I don't like the future of TV was not apps, IT turns out um but IT is possible that the future of computing is spatial, right? Like that is the the unanswered question that I think that we're going into all this with sort of the the point if it's like, is this different new computing paradise, you is IT the compelling thing or the start of the new compelling thing?

Like even if this device itself is not the thing that is going to be the truly transformative device, is this the seed that eventually grows, grows into the the next thing? And who knows, maybe this maybe isn't, but there is something very exciting about being there at the start of something new in that way that IT is a new platform that is a new thing. It's not the inter of like the it's like the ipad was a big iphone and the apple watch was a small iphone in some ways.

Um this is not really either of those things like that has a very different character to IT in a very different flavor. So it's just exciting is just very interesting to see and it's also just very excited that we have dates he was definitely gain a bit tiresome for for my planning and sort of just motivation and working out what to what I should do and when I should do IT in what order have any dates least now I have dates. Um and while it's a bit earlier than I was expecting or hoping IT was going to be like, I think if I know I was just picking a number of on a calendar, I would have probably had a lunch in march.

But you january fine, I I can make that work and it's just going just glad that we actually have dates on these things. And I think I ve I can imagine anyone this into this probably those the dates but if I just worth saying so was announced um on the eighth. So that was inserted about two weeks ago.

And the sort of the flow it's gonna that as as you're likely releasing this um it's going to be tomorrow, the nineteen for january when preorders open up with delivery happening february second. He is sort of real estate that anyone's gonna get their hands on actual hardware. Um and between now and then, apple is um you couldn't you like as as of recording the submissions for these have closed, but there is also apple running two rounds of labs, which I think worth just mentioning if you are going to that, how to take advantage of that time.

But now essentially in two weeks from now, we're gonna apple vision prose. Hopefully fingers ross, periods go well tomorrow. And if that's the case, then we can start this adventure together.

What is the plural you think it's like apple visions pro?

Yeah I don't know. Anyway, no.

this leads into you know so you mentioned like this is a little bit earlier than you would have ideally liked. I'm actually kind of glad that the launch is so early and that I have no chance of being there on launched day with the cast because and this lead into everything are next topic.

Like I went to the lab, I ran what I had so far, both I I ran my ipad APP in the compatibility mode, and I also ran my native in progress rewrite that was using the division of S. U. I.

Frameworks in everything. My immediate feeling was, oh, this works. okay? No, great.

I I can leave the ipad checkbox. Checked IT works. So it's five people to use yeah.

And then within maybe twenty minutes of using IT, IT was very clear to me that both the ipad APP and my native in progress version that I had made so far, which should also had a three column layout and uh was all wrong for the platform that is IT didn't fit in. IT didn't feel right. IT was immediately obvious to me once.

Once I use IT on the real hardware that my design was fundamentally not right for the platform. And what I really need to do is redesign IT completely. IT restructure how things work. You have use more like horion tal scrolling and grade layouts and stuff like that, having a fewer elements visible on screen that wants IT was it's a very different design. And once you are in the hardware, and I guess that's the proposition, once you are in the hardware, it's so different from the simulator.

IT is radical, different like yeah, the simulator will show you approximately how IT might look, but IT does not show you how IT feels to use IT and how IT feels is so important to how we design. And you're also able to see more of apple apps like I spent a good part of my lab time and the labs you're there are like the whole day. So you have something like four, five hours of actual time with the hardware.

So I had a lot of time and I opened every single other APP that was on those devices. And IT with this was prereduced, and know the were limitations, but I poked around as much as possible to see, like, how are the other? How are apple's apps laid out? How do they feel? How do they navigate? How do they work? And that was invaluable.

I even did one of the meditations of the meditation. I was there, let me go. Let me, let me meditate. sure. I went to all the different environments like I on. I don't have the mountaintop and stick overcast window on the side and see how that works and stuff like that.

And that's the kind of thing that you have to do to really know how to develop an empty this platform like all the work you ve done in the simulator so far. That's great. That's a good start.

But until you really try IT on and and have an hour two with IT, you won't really know how IT feels. And that dramatically influences the design. I would say like in broad strokes, think of IT like an apple TV design like that, that you happen to be reaching out with a very long hand to interact with.

Um that's the the overall impression I got was oh, these act need to be designed TV apps because that's kind of the physical scale and distance of how they look. And so i'm very happy that I had no chance of making day one because I think if this was shipping in march, I would have definitely tried to get there day one. This now like I have no chance this i'm going to try.

And i'm just so that I so glad that I didn't, I guess, because I would have been tempted to get there and ship what would end end up being a pretty mediocre vice. And i'm actually a medicare approved, and i'm pretty glad that i'm going to have the hardware. Hopefully, I it'll see harder this to get yeah, but i'm i'm probably going to have the hardware during development before my accounts out there so I can actually design and developed IT in the headset itself.

Snl lab, i've done zero development on that branch of the of the APP because the the lab taught me i'm all wrong. But what I do have them simulator. I need to wait till I have this to really continue with this design and implementation.

And the other thing I would, I would advise you, developers for in this, in this area is day. If you said a few minutes ago that know this, this could be the next big thing or the next thing. I think tech, we often get obsessed with declaring something the next thing, or hoping something will become the next thing.

But what usually happens in tech is not that one thing replaces something else. We just add more. I really think this is going to be an additive platform because IT really does feel like computing on an apple TV.

And if you think about kind of how that would feel, it's that's not a replacement for a mac or an iphone. Or an ipad. But it's so much to kind of how like you know, the ipad when I came out, people try to use like a big phone or they try to use like a small mac.

And you can do that. And there is no there is possible, but there are certain things that the ipad is really great at, that the other platforms that can do at all or do in a much more clunky way. So I don't think, think things like the pencil input, anything you do with the apple pencil on the ipad feels amazing and is awesome.

And for people who have that kind of use case where they their illustrators so they take care and no, what ever else, that is all these different use cases for the apple pencil. And if that's one of the use cases, the ipad is just way Better than everything else. But being able to use the pencil on on the ipad doesn't replace the need for your mac to do other things.

And I think the vision pro is going to be that kind of thing where you can do tasks that you would do another device, you can do them in the vision pro. But the real reason to have the vision pro and the real value of IT and the benefit of IT is in things that only IT can do. So yeah, you can eat your spread ed sheet.

You can use IT as just a computer monitor if you really want to just showing your mac screen. What I think it'll be amazing for is immersive and three experiences, of course. And that's a kind of thing.

Like first of all, if you are sentimental at all about anything you can take photos and videos of, especially three d videos. You're going to want one just just have watch them. That's enough right there.

The vision pro could have only the photos APP, and i'd still buy one just for that alone. But there are so many apps that are so many use cases that you just can't do in something else. Obviously, watching three video council, that's that's that's a huge one.

But any kind of interactive immersive experience, things like meditation, I think that's going to be a significant potential market for the vision pro of just like I am stressed, take me somewhere where I can have a bit of a peaceful or mindful experience and and kind of get me out of my current stressful world for a few minutes. That's going to be a huge market for IT, I hope, because it's really good for that and and other stuff just like let me listen my podcast in peace where like there's all sorts of smaller versions of that. One of the most valuable things I did during the lab was apple has the sample code.

IT has like a jumping fish and you put IT through pipes and everything. What are whatever that's called swiss flash? I think you can, with your actual hands, you can take three pipes and fit them to each other.

And they like snap in. And then you watch this fish, like you jump into a flow of water and go to the pipes. And IT looks real.

I'm so happy. I in the sample code. Thank you. Different of the showcase I E list for telling me there on the sample code.

I'm so happy I ran the sample code because that showed me like, oh my god, this this has massive utility if you have this kind of need of having some kind of 3d content that you're manipulating in space or viewing in space。 And so none of that replaces mac apps. None of that replaces phone apps.

One of that replaces ipad apps. It's its own thing. And the sooner that we as developers and users realized that is its own thing, the sooner we can get started on actually embracing what is great at and taking advantage of IT.

If you're thinking this is going to be a big ipad or a big mac, I think you're wrong and that's not a bad thing. It's gonna a big vision pro like that. Its its own thing and IT has some amazing capabilities, but it's going to take us a wild to embrace them.

sure. And I mean, I think the thing that I am excited to, to have one for myself hope fully be successful. My period tomorrow is to I think i've been eight, so I took a different approach like I have built, you know a fully custom version of which Smith for this that I hope to launch on day one.

That's the approach I took. And in many ways, it's one of those. IT is not super 3d or immersive in that way, like IT is much more similar to a aversion of something that could feel at home on other platforms. It's enhanced and improved by being in a spatial environment rather than being stuck on a pet of a flat screen in that way. But it's a different thing.

And I think for me, when I look at this and why I think of if if you are developer who's thinking of purchasing a device and whether it's is a worth or or not, I think is a question that i've seen many people talk about because it's certainly not an inexpensive devices. I think and this is the approach that I i've shave told myself about this thing that i've been working on and know, getting close to being ready to ship is said, I believe that I can only make a good APP in the simulator. I cannot make a great APP in the simulate.

That in order to make a great APP at truly awesome, amazing thing, you need to beyond device that ultimately your users and customers are going to be experiencing the APP on that I can make a good i'm not to know trying to ship something that is low quality or that doesn't work or has any those kinds of things. But the understanding of what is the fundamental importance of the device and how it's used and where it's know what what the behaviors and gestures and things are natural and intuitive, that is all going to come from the actual use of the device. And so for me, i'm in a place of what I think is like I want to have a device because I understand that this is not the end point.

I'm not trying to get to february second and you know ship the finished thing that is the starting line of the race, not not the finishing line. And but in order for me to get to that finishing line in a really helpful, constructive way, the thing that I find is often super helpful is to have you have an APP out there, have a good APP out there and start to listen to customers and listen to what happens, and be part of that process of expLoring how this works, how it's useful, what are the drawback? Ks, what are the places where, oh, oh, when your rap is used this way, that's really cool? Or if I use IT this way, that's not so cool? Or those ideas or things that people suggest like that, that process for my experience in other, you have to be there right at the beginning, but until you're there, you can start that process.

And so I like for me, that's the kind of minds that i'm taking with this is that i've gotten, which is Smith to a place that I think it's very good, like proud of what i've been able to accomplish. But i'm also tempering ing that with that with the expectation that it's going to be in three or four months in the future when the up read becomes what it's going to that actually be in kind of coming to its own. Or I mean, it's entirely possible that IT turns out the aisle doesn't isn't useful. And like that's great to know in some to, but my suspicion is as little of the other way that is, i'll be able to improve and develop and make the APP something special once is actually able to be out there. And that's something that I can use on a daily basis, other people can use on a daily basis, and we can use IT in the way that is actually natural initiative for IT.

We respond to the episode by factor. Get started on your goals with factors so you're ready for this new year. Factors ready to eat meal delivery takes the stress out of meal planning and set you up for success in the new year. Skip the girls y stores prep work and cooking fatigue instead gets chef crafted diety tion approved meals delivered right to your door where there were thirty five meals to choose from per week, including options like kito calories, smart protein, plus of vegan, vegan and more, plus over fifty five weekly ads.

You'll have a ton of nutritious and flavorful options to kick start your new year so you can forget frantic lunch prevs and rush dinners factors two minute meals at a secret weapon for the new year factor now offers loads of snack options to like breakfast smoothes juices, snacks and more to keep you going, so you can skip the overPrice take out drap. Factor is cheaper and way more delicious than take out, and things get hectic. Factor is also flexible for you.

You can change your order up every week with plans from four to eighteen meals per week, or you can pause or we schedule your deliveries whenever you need to. No problems at all. Factor has everything you need for a week of flavorful, ful, nutritious eats. Head over two factor meals, dot com slash rate or fifty, and use code rate or fifty to get fifty percent off. That's code rate or fifty at factor meals dot com slash rate our fifty to get fifty percent off our things to factor for their support of this show and all of real FM.

So something that is also, I think, worth talking about is the I guess, like the the phenomenon of the day one release. It's kind of A A funding thing that but it's like i've been there for the day, one of every apple platform that I since, I guess, I didn't quite make the iphone, but since then have been there for for the platform and accept tvs as pose. But absolutely ly ve been there a lot and certainly every IOS releases a day.

One experience, and I just want to to talk about that briefly in times of that is not something that you have not necessarily chasing after and not that I think I necessarily to be chasing IT. But there is something interesting about day one. There is something special about trying to be there at the beef at the very start.

And a lot of that is purely emotional, not rational or interesting in that it's not like it's a from a business case or any of those kind of perspectives. It's not important in that way. But I think there is something fun about being there at the start of something.

And I think that's why fear for me. I've prioritize being ready to be there and part of how i've done that is by scoping down um you know what i'm ultimately gonna ship to something that I think I can I can get a really good solid version. With a very core serve the core kern nel of the idea um and put that out there and have that ready.

But I think the other thing I would mention about being there on day one is to understand that is you you are putting yourself in an awkward place because you want to be careful about committing yourself in a particular direction because like we were just saying, until you actually the devices out in the field and people are using IT and you you're using IT and its so a much more solid thing, you may be finding that you're going down a path that isn't the ultimately correct path or the best path for your APP. And so it's something that I ve started to learn from my experiences because I think I ve done this many times. I won't think about how when apple watches launched, when watch get apps launched, I launched eight apple watch apps on day one um of only one still exists.

So I didn't have a great tit rage and notice that is twelve percent successful. But me I learned a lot through that process. And I think what was in some ways, the thing I learned from that most this is like I wanted to ship on day one things that I have how much higher confidence that I think i'm are going to a work out.

And then I don't know that they are going to work out, but the speculation of kind of just like throwing things into the error approach with something that I think I have slightly out grown because I feel like I want to make things that a bit more solid. And i'm by scooping things down, I can make sure that the core experience that I think i'm sort of somebody committing myself too, is something that I have some confidence, cy, rather than just sort of like wildly doing that. And I mean, there's only something fine about making little experiments and things.

And so unlike I think that's that's cool and I enjoy IT. But maybe that's less of A A priority for me now that I want to make a core experience that is a very good experience and then to be able to be more much more flexible in dispute if the apple needs to grow in a different direction. I have been spent all this time, energy or created customer expectations that it's going to serve all of these purposes. If IT turns out only one of them is actually the one that is that is valuable to me. I think also .

there is there is a substantial in developer opportunity here. Ea especially being there are early in the market this, but there's a huge any developed opportunity here because, you know, one of the great things about being independent is that you can do things that way.

Bigger companies just won't do in this case like I don't see big companies adopting vision pro for a long time of averages because there is not onna be anywhere near the install base to for them to justify IT. I mean, most big companies have enough trouble adopting even the ipad. no.

So this stands no chance for most of them. But as an end, you can adopt just because you think it's cool or you think IT has potential in the future or you have one yourself and you want your APP to be on IT. And that gives us a certain degree of power here because, yes, while the market is small, IT is to some degree a bit of a land grab.

And so you can kind of stake out a market for your APP on this platform even though it's a very small market to start because then what if it's bigger market down the road and even if it's not IT is possible to capture value from IT, it's just different them when you're capturing value from, say, the entire iphone market. If you're trying to capture value from the other a market, you have to be really low Price. Things pretty much have to be free and have some way to monetize separately after the fact.

And you can make IT up on the volume because there's just so much volume with vision pro, it's much more it's more like specialized enterprise APP. The install base is going to be small and wealthy. And so this is actually an opportunity. If you have something that can be high value to that small group, you can charge good money for in this in this case, and you can stay out to mark that way again. It's I think it's gna be a tough market just because it's going to be so small start, but there is a market there.

And as an india, you'll be one of the only people competing in that market because the big companies, probably one go near IT and that to some degree, IT does make IT a little hard to justify business wise if in terms just wrong number of potential here. But for a long term strategy, I think this is actually a decent indian opportunity. And even if nothing else, as in these, we have the ability to use to make something because we want IT.

So if you want to go get a vision pro because it's cool and not have to justify IT as like, well, maybe i'll do my business for dudes like you won't, but you can just buy IT because it's cool. And almost everyone who buys one in this first year is buying IT just because they think it's cool. That's IT like that.

The reason and you can buy IT because you can think it's ool, that's fine, that's OK. And then you can make an effort just because you think it's cool. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you couldn't like you know afford the time in the money in other ways like this could just be a hobby and that's fine.

And if he becomes business later, that's that's a great benefit. But we have the the luxury here as indeed of being able to do things that don't have a clear business case immediately. And we should take of energy that more you .

and I think there is something in there. Two, i've heard a couple of people sort of with the joke and proba music, just joking, the sort of like how many in that purchases of their whatever their APP is, are are going to need to to pay for the division pro.

And I think that model or that way of thinking had a slightly backwards in the sense of its I think i'm getting a vision pro and working on developing ABS ford for the long term set of fully viable, interesting business case that I can make for this platform. But that is unlikely to manifest for a long time that the once the platform has scale and has maturity and we worked out what are the things that are truly where the value can come from as a makers, that is where the business case is going to come from. I don't think that business case is going to come in a meaningful way to start with.

And I mean, sorry, one of those things that i've wrestled LED with a bunch in this, but at least for me right now, my plane is when I launched, which is Smith on a vision pro least for the initial period. I'm not gonna charge anything in IT. It's just going to be like the premium features will be free and is a message ssa's ing in the upper around this.

But like what I want is people to use the APP and also I as philosophically have the in my mind, I only everyone to sell something I am confident is worth the Price that I am charging for IT. And I don't feel that yet for this platform because I haven't used that in my data day life on a regular basis. I don't know what's worthwhile, what's worth IT.

And but I don't want to do is to charge for something that i'm hoping and guessing and maybe a little kind of be worthwhile. I expect to charge eventually. I expect to find the things that would be worth charging for and charged for them at that point. But IT was something that I I was working through this and when I was kind of like get into the part of the process for, I like going to need to, you know build my purchase flow and all these things that I like. I just don't know if it's worth yet. So I don't know it's a controversial opinion or whatever, but it's like rather than starting um with like other people say you can charge more and vision process like maybe I don't know like but I don't I really don't want to do is charge a more invision co and then I turned out it's what I was selling wasn't worth the Price that that I was charging like that is far worse to me. Then the sort of potentially missing out on a little bit of day one revenue in the hopes of setting myself Better, be able to charge the fur, you know the right Price for the right things, you know, down the road.

that's a wise way, do things. And because when you take money that that brings without a bunch of obligation and burden expectations and and know that brings problems. And if you not prepared for that or if you're not confidence that you'll able to handle them, then that could be a problem.

I mean, know there's lots of areas in in tech where people put in effort to make things where there is not much of a business case or not going to make any money. I mean, look like people like social the games market, people make hobby as games all the time. People make like for pico eight or even like people who make the play eight games.

How much the market is there? Like it's it's y're problem not doing that for the money to doing that because this is a thing that they find fun and they look school, they want to try and just to make something, it's a recreational development. And I think looking vision pro, everyone says it's all about space al computing.

I would say vision pro is recreational computing. IT is not about making money. IT is not about justifying why you need this for your job or whatever.

It's recreational computing you're going na put IT on and it's gonna cool and you're onna run a haps that are gonna give you cool experiences and that's fine as a user. You're not going to get much work done in IT as a developer. You're not going to make much money on IT.

It's recreational for now. And if he ever becomes anything down the road that's more than that great. But walk into IT with open eyes at first this is just cool and i'm not going to be able justified ed to make money from IT and that's okay.

yeah. And I think it's the understanding two of like I think is cool. I think that is exciting.

And I think the best way to discover if IT is going to be something more than recreation is to be there to be part of IT. And I would encourage anyone who has the means that is able to to dive into IT. And you know get into that.

And I think it's exciting. It's fun. Being there on at the early stages of a platform is cool.

Some platforms fizzle, some platforms explode like you never know. But being there is a prerequisite being part of that. And so that's exciting. I look forward to IT. Good, good luck with everyone with your preorders tomorrow. I guess hopefully, we all get able to get a hold of what we want so that we can need to be part of this experiment.

Thanks for listings, everybody. We'll talk to you in two weeks by.