The Chopping Block: Trump’s World Liberty Financial Unveiled, Memecoin Market Trends, and DeFi Developments - Ep. 699
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I think one beautiful thing, egypt, is you can actually have the the game change at the same time as the players change the strategy. So it's like imagine playing chess and like as you're playing chess somehow, like um you know you can remove one piece from the board and now always sunder is a hole on the board and you have to avoid that peace. And a lot of like financial applications are inherently like this, right? Like a lot of whenever this a regime shift and finance that's the same thing is like someone poking a hole in the chest ort and saying, oh, you can use that spot .

any more losses.

And someone else.

generally speaking, air groups .

are kind of pointless. Anyway.

three firms were very involved.

D five protocols party antidote to this problem. But everybody welcoming the chabon block every couple weeks, the three of us get together, give the industry inside the respective on the create topics of the day so you can rest. He got tom, that def I made in .

a master means everyone fortunate Robert .

could not make IT today. He had a family emergency um so we've got to ruin the key brain and graph about i'm only .

here because of the emergency. amazing.

I received the had hype man of dragon. You gotto be both the giga brain as well as .

the crypt cons today OK. You know, there's two things that will get me to kind of stare at the ceiling, and that those two things are R, W, S. That aren't just government bonds or cash and regulation.

Well, this is this perfect. This is the regulation super episode. When we talk about about only regulation today, I like to think investing.

well, your mike is a .

fix to the ceiling that looks like.

so I think, right. So we are early .

stage of vectors and critical, but I want to kova and nothing we say here is the best and vice legal advice or even life advice. Please see chopping block and X O Y Z for more disclosure. So um it's been a choppy couple weeks marked seem to be quite, quite board going sideways slash slightly down.

There hasn't been a lot of energy in the markets except around one story which is animating the cricket world right now of a little protocol called the world's liberty financial. So world liberty financial is notable for being in some way associated with Donald trump, the republican ominous and former president. Apparently it's his family who is involved, apparently baron trump as well as don't trump junior, who are involved in this project in ways that are not yet fully disclosed.

But apparently despite the fact that or other than the fact that dont trump has retweet world liberty financial and there's been some general tee zing of what the project does other than its related to defy and of course the hashtag be defined. Coin desk picked up a scoop about world liberty financial that involves a list White paper. Apparently what we know so far is that the team behind world liberty financial is building something that is a an ivy fork based on a protocol called doll finance. D O U G H, dos and bread do no doll finance apparently was originally hacked for two million dollars, but the code for dell financial is one for one, the same code as is in the lead code base for a world liberty financial, as well as parts of the same team. So IT seems the doll finance team is now partner ing up with the family of the trump um apparently in the White paper which has also been lead a bearin trump who is the I think teenage son is .

is he tea eighteen eighteen?

Okay so the eighteen year old sun of the trump uh is listed on the way paper as a devi visionary. Um the governance token for world liberty financial will be non transferable, so you will not be able to cell this token. It's really a pure governance token. Actually it's kind .

of very .

earnest of them .

to create and not actually be hilarious as if if IT was only IT had some way of taking an oracle that only allowed to be .

transferable of trump .

wins .

that was security okay yeah OK nice um interesting. So yeah thoughts on world liberty financial also if any you guys got to pitch.

I have heard this news actually from um pretty I was a uh reputable or like investors that I think are good in cyp deu kind of before this news came out. So through the news came out .

after the news.

Yeah yeah no no putable no no no. They they were approach to be advisers or whatever and think they turned up down, which probably wise um because I mean the details of IT do not sound super compelling. Even the front end there was weeks trying at the same thing as to finance but they change color.

So um on the one hand you know it's good that they were trying to hit up people and get good people that I think are our advice on the project. But um I don't really know what the sort of grand scheme or idea here is. Um initially there is a room where that has to be something real estate related.

That doesn't seem like me now. Um I don't know it's it's very confusing. Um I think there are probably been Better ways to work with crib. And if like trump was on like a very good terror to the cypher to community in terms of saying the right things and uh, you peeling good things that people want in terms of policy, this feels like a total uh, left turn.

Um I think it's kind of funny. It's like if we take a trump s script project tory, it's like three months ago we heard free ross and bitcoin policy. This month we hear a an OA fork like like road finance. And you know what I was expecting three months like a solan for A A A roll up that's very hard for the I know .

but it's it's like funny because .

it's like speed running crypto over the last five years. And like three months, right to go. I again, I I gaw a tom. I've note, what's the end game of dove? Sorry, a world finance like a, if you, we call IT, do finance .

if you like that. It's a beautiful name .

and I do finance I just think about all of those um like a basis folks that were actually made by dogon. Do you remember those like yeah .

basic house yeah but .

um but yeah there's just like some something weird about this like why what benefit does trump get from doing? I mean there's I just don't really get the benefit to trump D J T or barren because like what are they expecting this to be like selling another nf t. And like this token will like via a low market cap shader, something you know like IT IT feels like it's like a mean coin with ten more steps.

You know I mean, like IT doesn't like you. What unique assets can I borrow? Uses collateral? Do finance like entire thing is kind of desire to me like so .

ah that's interesting. You ask a question of like, okay, why what is trans motivation for for doing this? Um I ask some question to myself about his entity collection.

And clearly, you know I think if you're if you're trump, you're just out for any million incrementally that you can use them much like this has been a strategy for a very long time, right? He's celebrity, celebrity say yes to to brand deals and they find ways to gradually moitie their name. And likely and in N, F, T is just another mechanism by which to do that. So I think for trump for like for trump personally, I think that's the way that he thinks about .

is that is not think your crypto me a mean point would have been more affected with .

the point I went to make is that I think for for barren or for down from junior, I think the equation is very different is that when you are the son or you are the child of a very, very wealthy person um what you are trying to do is not so much to make money so much as buy legitimacy right or create legitimacy for yourself and so I have to imagine that a lot of what has brought them here is not this idea of like, oh, I can make a quick why being .

like to five hundred and all a for a form of I don't .

think stand that so it's more like, okay, I want to be a cypher entrepreneur crypto is cool in high status and my dad is saying it's a big deal and it's like it's one of these hot things everyone knows about and I there these guys, I md. Who can teach me how to make a protocol and i'll be a real unch for our and i'll and defi sounds really cool like I don't know. I have to assume that for your bearing that this sounds like starting to start up. You know I I mean.

I feel like the name is really thing. The selling to their dad is like the idea that like, look, look, look, we made a bank and it's called world finances or whatever, like internet, because that sounds like an evil fake William bank from the thousand nine hundred and eighties that, like the public as a bar.

would like deposit the .

legal action directly. Yes, yeah, like a real thing like I feel like it's basically a meme coin with more steps and could get back again because deal finance was hacked.

That's true. I think mum, I mean, isn't someone similar to like the truth social back thing, right where you get D J T, the ticker and its treating I like billions of dollars for this you know product and not really users, but it's kind of a mean stock. And so no, it's maybe profile that way, I don't know.

I think mean, it's also you know some person that you get a connection to has a year. And I mean, it's like the guys who made to finance the ones who are telling us a good idea. It's not like they're losing in the consensus of crypto twitter. And so yeah is you good idea? He had something in the passage, lets roll IT, I don't know, um is just seem very random.

I mean, the more time that I have spent over the last you know three, four years seeing a lot of these celebrities and how they interface with the cyp du IT feels very similar to this, where they no dude, and it's always, dude, and that one do like has some glancing connections in the cyp to universe, but there they're pretty thin. And that dude is like, oh, you know, if you create an of teeth, if you create a metaverse drop, if you do a partnership with you know blobber token, um it's like a new hot thing.

You can get your whatever um and they generally are not plugged into like the sort of the inner ring of crypto is always like some random person on the outer ing who ends up bring like ushering them into cyp to and giving them the idea what do which is why you see so many these celebrities have very hyder mist um initial ideas about how to interface with the gypt. Uh and I have to imagine that it's probably very similar. What happened here is that barn just knew somebody who is connected to dell finance and this to finance person was like, oh, you know but if if I convince barren to become part of this script project, you a reboot of dell finance and will really take off and make him a cofounder and put them on the White paper and get access to his dead.

So I don't know, this feels this, this really smells like that to me, which is I think a lot of people are trying to draw the agency from trump. And I think that's probably a mistake. I think it's probably more somebody went in through barren and there's a lot more analog to like you know um I don't know kate Perry signing off to in N F T drop or a some crypt al protocol then uh then thinking about your dull trump decided to be a party to to some something encysted .

U I agree but it's also a weird because he's like tweet about IT and like I feel like the defi stuff is like the type of stuff ganger wants to talk about and go after and IT. IT doesn't really make sense to me like why not just go to the meme coin IT just like IT seems so so much cleaner all I think .

that's a very cypher perception that like the mean coin is cleaner right from the outside building a defi protocol sounds like a real business, sounds like a job. It's like old, so good. Barren is like starting a company and he know writing code, he's got a White paper, you know IT sounds you know, way. This is like reflective of the difference between the N, F T, like previous cycles. Even people talk about how this cycle feels kind of nylon or kind of bearing because of the mean point staff.

And it's all very, all this financial alison, this is part of partial of that, right, is that IT may IT might be you underneath all of the artistic IT might be just as much of a kind of shallow bulls shit h enterprise to create a, you know after fork from a hat q base that's that's branded with down trump family, but in at least has the venir of being a real thing. And in polite company, you can know bar and go around to be like all, i'm a founder. I started a .

company that does a bad mother.

you know, for all I know he is we're not going to call that. We're not going to to this that business because .

I just I I am just saying I don't think the mean point is that different. Especially wanted to fork of a protocol that was hacked very recently, not that long ago. And it's the five hundred of effort. You just have any unique assets and unique.

but we don't know that yet. We don't know yet. We don't know that yet. Government is not comfortable. That's the first, first sign of innovation that we've space for a yes, this way, see give them hey, the rule invention, give founders the benefit of the doubt i'm going to give bear the benefit the doubt.

right? Well, you and me, dier and I .

usually of one, I .

agree, but this just seems like A A A low effort rug poll, you know like IT IT, just like reminds to me of all of the bsc rug poll copy post lending folks of twenty twenty one IT just like IT really just looks like that. So it's kind of like hard to be say anything positive or feel anything .

positive about IT IT is where like in terms of being off ma that we didn't see any celebrity defy forks in twenty or twenty twenty one IT was all N F S. Yes, there is not A A um or anything that is. Honestly.

if she's listening to this, I actually think you should do that. That would that would actually work for her mother. You know that these were back. There have been a bunch of recent like um EMS that like take extra fees that have come out and try remember which IT and and I kind .

of feel like there's this .

like he was like first party am am saying and like because he has a brand that her mean coin is like a reasonable well, there's probably some way of of actually taking advances of the mother order flow that SHE kind of unity drive. So I don't know, I don't know he is really are doing a defy lending protocol, makes five hundred times more than on barn.

Fair enough.

What you can do is something that I set to here first.

Okay, nice. Speaking of extracting fees, another story that's been catalyzing a lot of discussion on twitter has been the story that pumped up fun has just passed one hundred million dollars in revenue in two hundred seventeen days since launch, making the fastest script to APP to ever hit a hundred million doors in revenue behind the thin, a convex pancake swap and eardrum. So we've seen, although pumped are fun, is hit.

And so pumped are fun, for those who don't know, is the mean coin launchpad onza. IT is by far of the biggest. And if IT is governed, ze a lot of immune n activity that is taking place on one of these days. Um however, we've seen a pullback in the total amount of trading volume and activity on sona.

So we've seen monthly non vote transactions for sona go from the month of july was the year day high, which was one point three billion non vote transactions h that's come down to about four hundred eighty million, so over sixty percent decrease in the total mente transactions. We've also seen a decrease in amount of me contrary volume happening on slaw. A IT seems like might be a seasonal pullback, might be something uh broader about the market cycle.

Um there is also some some music came out about um an analysis of how many folks are making money trading mean coins uh that are directly launched on pumpout fun uh and there there is a great set of stats that show just the degree to which I think twitter might give you A A sort of bent uh reserve distorted view of what's actually happening with respect of people trading main points. And so just you want to get off on these stats. If you've made over a million dollars trading pumped up fund tokens, you are a top seventy trader, which is point two basis points of all words.

If you made over one hundred thousand dollars, you're in the top nine hundred traders, which is uh top three basic points of all words. If you've made over ten thousand dollars, you're in the top twelve thousand walls, which is a forty seven days points and if you've made over thousand dollars, you in the top seventy six thousand, which is the top three percent of our walls. So more than sixty percent of our walls.

I ve lost money trading main coins so far. So um I I I want to stop t there just going to get us reflect a little bit. So we started talking about main coins must have been like, you know, january or december last year that we started talking about the mean coin rally. And we've reflect to the various times about how is sustainable. We think the meaning in rally is the interesting thing i've ve seen is that the meanwhile in sentiment on twitter tour, pumped up fun seems that resounding ly turned negative seemingly over the last months or so, where, as I saw you in, got march, April, IT seem to like a lot of the city was really positive. That pumped fun was a good thing and we should have more things like this and this is improving the character space um what you guys thoughts on pop up fun, the main coin uh cycle and where we are in the overall life cycle of these things.

Feel like turns the expert here and let them go. Expert.

explain the well, you're the consort of clipt today so I feel like you got .

a way you know about expert. But I will say I didn't mention pop up fun on the show before anyone else, and the show even knew what I was. I I I think like this is kind of a natural cycle. Also like overall cyp to volumes have been kind of the market has just been overall weird, partially because I think like the equities market is also in this like bizarre rebalancing thing.

We're like all the big stocks are selling off and all the kind of russia is really so if sort of feels like a there's not as much like a new capital flow into crypto o right now, even though stable coins hit all time high, doesn't feel like there's a new capital going into all the assets. And yeah, I think like people are probably just like there's only so much you know a city again, you know I think maybe I at the last time, but you know if you have a casino were like the players win ten percent of the time, they obviously eventually all leave. You cause know where players when twenty five percent time they obviously live.

But you people learn this lesson and start like increasing the mechanism until you get to like forty six or whatever. There's like some some kind of like empirical thresh hold at which people don't leave when when the edges like close enough to fifty percent. And I kind of think me kinins will evolve to something like that like like in in inevitably I think I will do kind of convertible, like casino territory now, maybe because they have this sort of collectable community aspect, which which maybe they can do IT as I like a lower they go like maybe at forty percent of people make money.

you people converge to that.

I mean, people are going to keep trying. And the genius are the bottom. People like the style of of launch and burning the keys and and locking the L, P. And you know, like all of that stuff seems to be part of the mechanics, like a video game, almost of people like that video game. So I think people are just going to improve that and they're just going to change the the payoff structure, uh, and it's going to become closer to to what sort of like the long run equilibria for pure speculation that people have observed.

Now like I said, there could be some reason that IT deviates a bit from no rule that or you know any of the casino games like far from fifty fifty year, far from power and and don't require skill um but I I my suspicion is like those games are that way because like human nature has like tried games other more shark key and less sharky and then like we evolved to like oh the ones that survived like hundreds of years of these ones that are like right around that threshold for the non skill like i'm not talking about poker. I'm talking or i'm really talked about the pure non skill gamble games, and I IT just seems like that that's been like an evolutionary thing to get to that number. Now i'm not saying there's a thereafter al justification that it's like exactly for because it's really it's really a behavioral psychology like how much pain are people willing to tolerate on average over a large distribution of people?

I think I distributed with this because the mean coins, like gambling on skill games, is inherently unstable. Uh, gambling on on pure gives the chance is very simple. Everything you can just say, okay, you know the other are forty six percent, pull the slot machine play, elect whatever IT is and you can kind of window to that. That point in the africa of that maximizes is revenue and maximize retention of whatever is. Um but for games of skill, it's very difficult rol, that because it's p VP right people are just kind of sharking each other and and gobble up each other and you can't really stop the overharvesting because of the fact that um it's people, it's person on person and no single person is internalizing the health of the world ecosystem. Um the only the house is doing that and the houses is pumped up fun, but the house can't stop people from launching in getting a new point to launch, pumping in the social media and the dumping in into the and and this is kind of the thing that people are pointing to.

which is not that can I agree, but I sort of view IT i'd like this type of thing or it's it's a thing. A mecom is like a game of skill is a game that starts as a game of skill in the beginning for the creator. And then IT devolves into pure moisture. I think .

that's only true if I had escaped city. But that's like those that's SHE, that's like some of .

these things that are so big.

But that's not what we mean. What we're talking about the like the yeah exactly look captured res, right? So this is a very heavy sy game.

It's one that that benefits being an insider. And I think the skill set of this game has changed over time. But it's it's very reminiscent of what entities were like where you know nfs, there were new launches every single day.

There were new ms every day. And in the early days, IT was like really about curating taste and having some inside into where fashion is going. And then by the late cycle of entities, that was really about an insider knowing the whales, knowing, you know, the kind of group buying mechanics.

And but I think the difference for N F T, just like the liquidity premium is much higher because of like.

yes, is a worst vehicle, right? Like the worst vehicle for us to play this game. But the mechanically, the game feel very similar to me now that thinks that i'm not a big counter .

or in my point is I guess my point is i'm not saying that like the exact same continue forever. I'm saying like people will take this and like great enticement on IT, right though like to add a little tiny different lockup schedule, different some extra lottery type of thing, some inflation curve that like goes to zero and omy like there's all sorts of things you can do that turn IT more into to like fair but like oh, you to lock up capital for a longer type of things.

And I feel like people just like and IT becomes closer to these I world bit casino game type of things and I don't world in which people don't experiment with that. Just seems like that that that's the point of propose like, hey, I can actually make that game with ten month code verses like in the real world, is I to annoying to actually construct that game in terms like making a device to making a game that does that really IT? I think the beauty of Crystals that you can experiment and we incrementally improve that.

And I don't doubt that whether it's comes out on the other, someone else like people will find some new that like brings a wake up so that like you don't have as much of whatever mechanical out leads to fewer losers. And we get proposal to the are not saying that will be the set like like again because of phenomenal gies like empire. Cally, well, i'm comparing all these samples from casino games, which are inherently in some ways less flexible, right? Because I can't like to resell my responsible, but I can definitely resell my new composition, right? And so like, like, imagine if you play reluctant as I was turning you like, I suddenly got scared than you like, I want to dump all my right.

Like, there there is some new ones to the the reason the different to different different beast. But I think that there is some truth to this human nature thing, like if you lose too much, everyone leaves. So right? Like you do really have to get closer to to fair for people to keep playing.

There's a good section in the new nates over book about uh slot machine design and they talk a lot about this where um you know basically people like a more and spending eries, but they play more on machines when that kind of brunning emotion plays out with more smaller payouts even if the overall E V is the same. So instead of hey you know the one thousand person, you get some crazy pao, everyone is good, zero.

It's like well you know um more frequently some double percentage, you get a bit of a payout and most of time zero single lea bit more so IT sort like goes you into playing more. And so what this is a whole you know design system around this and run out to your point around around the vig IT feels like um sort of that extraction feels like you just buying you know a lot teri ticket and there isn't really a lot of mini port. So you maybe there's something where it's oh some of the of these house winnings hundred million years as to occasionally buying some of .

the token or doing a dropper. So you get my point is there will be their little mechanics you can not that can make us converge to that uh, and I actually think a cool thing you can do in crysta and like, look not i'm not here at I have try to be like, oh like this is revolutionizing humanity or some bullshit that some like A I started up to tell you i'm just simply saying this is human nature that someone will try this, which is i'd actually think the interesting thing about things like sort machine is like they are fixed strategy, right? It's like a strategy ahead of time that the the machine takes in how in in in its randomly ess and like what distribution of sampling and whatever.

But you don't have to have fixed randomness encrypt, right? Like I can. I can adjust the rules of the slot machine dynamically as people are and train a model that like is based on how people are interacting. Like, oh, i'm actually going to make the vg shrink and grow dynamically based on, you know, like, oh, we got to this market caps and now do this other the strategy and I think they'll be this is like adaptive agent, like slot machines, like meme coins are evolved to that.

If the theory here is that, okay, new coins are basically a fancy skin over a slaw machine. And to these, they diverge from small machines because they become these like p VP. More dynamic.

They're like group shot machines, like the group right influences out of probabilities.

So it's like is a little to fly. Yeah but wouldn't implied that like OK. Well, these things are kind of diverging because they are not stable and they result in like this kind of over harvesting behavior um and really like they're kind of best when they divert back to a long machine. Isn't the is yes, but shouldn't this is be them like, okay? Slow machines are already greatly and decended to be this like .

perfect apotheosis, the great distance that under the assumption of static strategy. Like it's burned into the machine. There's a fixed strategy. It's not dynamically adJusting based on multiple people interacting with IT. The multi agent nature and the fact that IT has to have an upfront strategy that IT can't change is, is different than the mecom mechanics where you you could add all of this stuff that and you could directly adjust.

So let me let me take, let me takes that back because I I am not trying to get into the the mechanics of how you optimates sort of harvest or no, don't over harvest of people who are playing this game.

The question asking more, a phenomenology ical one, which is, okay, you're a user trading mean coins, right? Okay, what do you feel like you're doing? What makes a fun? What makes IT attractive? I think the answer is that you think you can make money means are funny um it's interesting to like find means that you think you're spouting early that you're going to make money from.

And my clam, is that okay? At a certain point, this game, this perception that people have that they have alpha in this game, that they can make money in this game, started degrade, and they no longer really believe that they can make money doing this right in the same way that people love trading socks, because if you meet some kind of person, he's a dayre der. And they think that like all you know, I know I I just think about apple and see their products and watch commercials and i'm going to trade based on that of myself action of how the things to pay out. And of course, people who do that just you know they're just basically moisture or right, there are just it's just completely random m, whether are going up or down now with mean coins, it's not like that, right? With mean coins, it's not you're not just noisy.

everyone, for recent for the David.

okay.

And I don't know you know about the collapse icon that C, C going after him. So basically I kind of ran what I would call something that looks like a me going that me pounds this game, which is he promised fifteen percent D, D, D, D, D D, yld on his stock. Very speaking of a crapo thing, very low float, high F, T, V.

I think the ratio was like one hundred plus. And he was obviously the larger owner and he just cut borrowing against his stock to pay out the fifteen percent day and are like eventually that's what happened. Like for a while there, there were cash for generating, and company is but a bunch of themselves on the pandemic.

And so then he started doing the same, where you like borough against the shares, take the cash, pay the flow. And then eventually that kind of thing eventually kind of blew up. And here people short to death.

And and now the S C. Is going out of as a last week. And I think like that that sort of the thing.

the thing here just so so there's some adverse selection as well.

And I think I I don't it's free lunch like like yes, there are things where than the old and I will continue forever, whatever. But just look at all these people having in video earnings a lunch parties and like you know like in in manhattan or just like crazy, you know like that feels a little bit like almost as me coin like I was there first. I don't I don't .

think that's like me not know that is actually not like meme points.

That and video are the most successful me asset in history.

No, no, no, no. I think maybe it's like tesla is more of a meme asset where it's like very, very heavily retail hold. But in video .

is .

video .

now is a huge reviews. The way it's trading is like unreal. Like a look for that size is unreal. I think today I will agree three year four x what salona a market capture yeah .

IT lost ten percent. Yeah yeah exactly. That's right. A huge soring today. Coming back to my point, and I think that we just land the plane quick is I think the phenomenology of main points that people think they're making money if they no longer think they're making money, mean coins are not actually that fun as like just a slot machine with more, more stuff have to do to pull the slot machine. And it's not as fast as long machine, right? Because the main coin's, they go up and down, but they don't go up and down nearly as fast as you can control yourself if you are controlling this machine.

I think the point of the dynamic nature of the system is that people will be at will play around with IT and try to engineer IT so that IT has a longer half life, right? Like you add all these mechanics so that like it's fun for a longer time. It's almost like these.

like all to that the company who's going to make that happen pumped up, fun done.

One of the fifty five, fifty teams that are trying to do that. There's a million people doing this who are who are raising money too. In case you haven't .

seen yeah, i'm just skeptical that like when you have this group dynamic that anybody can play, like there's no single .

person that it's almost like making video games. It's like think about the asian video games, especially that these like really popular games in china were like we'll get like a hundred million users for three months. You'll have a huge amount eventing and then they go to zero IT feels like that's a natural evolution of this type of thing.

Okay, take pokers an example, right? So I was a poker place to understand this and algy very well. Um new points are kind of like poker in that you it's P V P and the house is taking a rake, right?

So um you know pumped I find money and every single share that launches uh and do you right now they actually the dex fees go to radium, but they could internalize those and have their own taxi, right? So that really becomes kind of like a poker, a casino hosing poker games so they make money no matter who wins um how exactly. So you can dynamically adjust the rake.

You can say, okay, you know, when not a lot of people are playing, we're going to make the rake lower when a lot of people are playing and we're going to make the hired. But you can't stop the fact that you what you might want, but like the casino might want the best players, the table to go easy on, the worst players, the table. So the bad players, the table, stay for longer and they continue playing, right? But the casino can can stop the good place from doing that.

And you know how they can do that to, you know how can do that .

as they .

can change game, they can. You can have to play different variations of poker based on the players that are playing. You can play different games. And my point is the mean coins are moving in that direction where you're like you're kind of playing a different game based on who's 是 and what's .

the different what do you need a different game？

What is the different game mean for me? The different game in this cases, like oh like if you lock up or stake, you get some random or if you do this action, you get you know like people are trying to adult these like half defy half things to me kinins. And and i'm telling you this innovation is happening.

There's no the genes out the bottle. Everyone is like I see um no but like a lot of a lot of there are a lot of people who just basically started by just being like vermicomposting ed off on clone x right like on on the whatever right and those people are all promising all these new mechanics. And my point is I think someone will find a slightly different version of this in the same way that like there were there were sort of mean coin like things for many years.

Encrypt A I just never took off because like they didn't get the right lock up mechanic at launch. And right, like I think there's going to inevitably be innovation of this. Now again, i'm not going to try to be like any of these silicon valley as all people who be like, oh, yes, this is like great for humanity because we've made A I agents useful somehow.

No, this is literally just make the people play game games longer, but not so different than optimization for like ads and somewhere. What am I try to do? I want retention for my users. And I think like the game mechanics that have the highest retention will like will be the ones that survive. But I think the different to seeing this in casinos, you can like change the mechanics dynamically based on how things are traded and and like that's the beauty of crypt.

I like I can program those update rules in a way that like you can't really I can't like change the poker rules and like still get the still get people showing up with the ics. That's where I think the analogy kind of brakes right. It's all like I can dynamically update the rules of the game, like i'm changing the game as a well, yes, I understand the concept.

I reserve judged that you know, if somebody finds some of these mechanical and dynamically, you know a change, the extracted veness of a mem coin such that retails Better protected or sort of fish are not over harvested to the same degree, that's really interesting and i'm curious how that plays out. Um you know I think where we started this whole new point cycle, we had a conversation very similar to this.

And at that time I posited that I didn't think me coins were unstable like this. This mean coin, carcel is not a stability caliber. Im, right? And he has eventually stopped because of this P.

V, P. Nature of IT. In the same way, I think you see the same thing in poker is that poker, poker is drunk over time. It's actually become small and smaller just because the fact .

that poker pleasure getting well Better yeah but even .

before that even before that, like the trend line was the same regardless before we had you know true um you know game, very optimal solutions to poker was just that people kept getting Better, Better. And the delta between the ophite scared players and the fish got pig pig over a time and IT never reverse s right. And a lot of what keeps the you coin going is the bad players attract the the Better players. And you are to have this permit of food palmate that that defined.

All I will tell you is, is when I was working in market making, that was literally all you talk about IT. Like you're always trying to measure like who's the trader who's like who has no edge that you can like adjust your your order book placement so that like they face after selection. I don't think that.

I think that's like an inherent thing that will happen. I think the question is how close to fifty, fifty do you get? How close like. You know if you can get like you know the perfectly fair thing is fifty, fifty.

right? But in trading, right, the point is in trading, in mark making, market making is profitable even if there is no you know a sort of you you don't need fish or like you a bad trading firms. The final activity.

yes, yes.

there another not fish. They're like they're not necessary, are just they can be fish, right? But they don't have to be fish.

I mean sure like if it's A T op algorithm add noise, that's still a fish like you're scraping yield from them. Likely there is fundamentally some sense in which there has to pay for .

they're getting value. On the other side is my point, right? There's nobody who is there's nobody who is net negative in terms of value .

doesn't have to be. But my point is like imagine if the the mean coin had some real dividend, dual IT wasn't just like.

you know, I think it's too really .

to save me point trading is a game of skills, a game of chance. Like you know, we have a very small sample size of profitable traders. It's saying these are the new professional slap players. We we .

should try to get mates of guest to ask him to grill him on on, on he where he puts me kinds on that spectrum.

Well, we do know. I mean, we can tell very easily, just do a code analysis, look at the moon contract or on a weekly basis and see half and their up.

sure. But I guess like the question whether IT will evolve to that, right? Because like we we're basically trying to ask this more a python logical question of like can you even design this? Does there exist a game that is sustainable but has like you know, IT doesn't have this kind of like pure the wind rate, the last rate of like a in coin, right? And it's like IT seems kind of inevitable to me.

You you'll find those in the same way that they are like all these dead casino games. I like people don't play more because they were like two one sided. I how is that not going to happen here too, right? Someone's going to improve IT, and the market knows there's a lot of money if you can improve IT now alright, like there's been proof of concept. So there's gonna a ton of shots take up on go on this. And there already a lot of the tender is doing this like is is really tough.

But we should also be clear, we should also be clear, and I think it's worth literate this that like sort of the low liquidity e sheers that people are trading on, sana is a rather ly small part of the in court market, right? Most of in court market is doge and chebar and you know bunk and wait and yeah exactly. And mostly are traded on centralized changes.

They're not trade on chain and they do much more volume than what you see. You know making one hundred million over at the course of a year for pumped up fun is nothing a Better of what business is making right now? Now of course, most of violence is not min coins, but still, uh, so I wanted clarify that, that part of the main corn market is very real and very sustainable and doesn't have any of the problems that were they were pointing to with respect to this, you know meaning showing up overnight.

So what i'm not predicting is that mean coins will go away. I think it's definitely not true. But I think the velocity with which we're seeing mean coins and .

mean coin trading as a past time that I think some new mechanic will inevitable for launching and then you .

will was once a low cap shooter. Yes, yes.

But the question is like maybe what was happening with F S, right? I think is very cool that what was happening within f ties and what was happening with now the incoherence is isolated c it's just you know different mechanism to trade the same thing or to play the same game but with a different mechanism.

I 是在 um I agree with you that that underlying that the underlying shape is probably not going to change。 The the venture that we put over IT is probably going to change. Um but I think there is a there is a natural life cycle to these games, and he feels like a min coin trading game is getting later in the lifestyle.

I don't think it's near the end. I think this can be a while before we're like done done in the way that we're now done with end of teams. But IT feels like we're probably, let's say, three four in did that game would be my guess.

yeah. I I, I look, i'm not trying to disagree that, that there might be a half life for this current versions, but I am just saying I I am sure there will be another one like there's nothing.

There's nothing yeah I I yeah I agree that and I think the reason why there will be another one is that there will be a new set of people who get super rich who don't actually have a lot of skill like in the beginning. The people who end up buying dog coins super, super early are just people who like I I like dog ins.

And they're not these extremely strategic, extremely smart, extremely capital tic people who end up coming into the late cycle, right? We're now in the late part of the min orin cycle. And the people are making money now are just like these.

You know, like the guy saw hell who like watch all these celebrity coins, right? It's those kinds of people who are overwhelmingly profiting in the late part of the cycle. And that's when you get all this discontent and you get all this malaise, and you get all the sense that, oh, now now that pumped up fun has been a hundred million and fifty years now is .

a different point. And I feel like you you, you're drawing this technology between like stocks and this as like now having these like credit cycles. But I think the mean I F T thing just remind me of, like classic credit bubble cycles were like whoever was the first one to get the most leverage and to bet IT all on one thing without much skill, but they have to grow that way, is then able to, like a reinvestment twenty times.

And then IT causes us all these other people to follow and then that becomes for sis cared, but then ops they're not much quite like story of the financial crisis is like a great version of this. And I kind of feel like there's always these kind of circular bubble is just an encysted. They have this very short half life. I agree.

Yes, so agree. They're bubble everywhere. The question is like how foreseeable is IT that this bubble will eventually blow up? And I think the .

I think the second thing that guarantees you that every bubble eventually .

blows .

up to question .

humans yeah I .

could find well no yes yeah could be longer.

could be much one yeah you know exactly. So okay how foreseeable within sometimes span that the single blow right? So like okay, the credit bubble and like the real state bubble um one could have seen like maybe they will blow up at some point. Obviously lot of people actually maybe this twenty years.

who's the person who you would say blew up or lots the most in N F T. So like they like put a ton of capital and .

and then like the bt loot at the night. Ah there just for the boatload.

if you guys remember that. But but like I don't all the ones I did that doesn't matter. Like i'm just more like do the one i'm talking about like the whole yeah like like staring night is a potentially a good one. So then I have have a similar question for you about new coins. Who is going to be the the the person who stuck holding the too much like fAiling over lever themselves and like that's the thing .

is I actually I don't just part of the reason why I recoil so much for me pointers that I think all those funds are gonna IT coming and they are going to get out of min coin's before the cycle really comes to a true close black. I think for nf, I think a lot of the funds actually did end up posting like this. I think a lot of them still have their fucking loot or whatever ah. But I think for mein coins, I I think there's a just a lot more open eyes about what's really going on here and the extent to which this is a you know deep secular change in the overall financial ferment.

This you know VC thought leadership posts about how many coins are building communities. And I and those .

are three times people know how you have a lot .

of haters on forecasting for your commentary on mecom in and there in particular, there are venture fund G P S. So like I highly recommend checked that out. But there are the the apologist. And I would say in the same way, i'm sure someone is sitting on a lot of something like die and is like, oops.

I don't know. It's a great .

question. I I honest. I thought I stopped my my forecasters stopped getting spammed with all this like five million people being like I I try to use IT like a few times a week, but it's not like twitter.

Yeah yes. D from the peak was like five cents. It's now like point three cents.

so point three. So it's down over that make .

IT ninety six yeah okay.

down ninety six percent OK.

So I don't .

know the kind of cells I can write about this at least uh, although I don't one confirmation got in very, very cheap. So maybe there's still in the money.

I look i'm just pointing out that I K look there. There's kind of someone is holding one.

This is not a good vindication for your .

point but okay and that but there is someone who is the the kind of stuck with over leverage flash canker out of assets, right? And like i'm kind of curious who the mean coin column will be because the mean coins in are kind of funny. They had this like very credit bubble like behavior, but they had no credit.

There is no like direct leverage in that, right? Like, okay, people might have been barring and soul and taking leverage on all, but there wasn't like direct leverage. But the leverage came from the fact that the number of assets just groups faster than the amount of capital.

And this sort of felt like there is like this money creation event that's a little bit like the money multiply, a fact you get with leverage. And so I feel like that's an actually interesting of thing that like people I don't know, it's like kind of a weird credit bubble. Where is with N F T? Is I think people were actually taking real average. Like like genesis was lending against crypto cents, right? So like people were actually .

getting real average.

But but also like lenders were taking and if this is collonges .

ally like doge is Better collateral than any nt ever was, don't markedly strong.

The thing is, and this is something I remember someone was saying to me once, was like there's some tax advantage to baring against N F T versus baring against liquid token um in terms like how you computer basis and I did I didn't really understand this but like of course this person blew up .

so think yes yes I why because if you buy an f ty early, you don't you can you don't market to the floor Price. That's like not a thing. You market to the last sale and the last sale was like you bought a super.

super early yeah something very weird, something marking bit like, okay. Well, clearly all those people who thought they're really smart doing that all blew up because like none of them correctly make loans yeah but my point is the N F T thing had this leverage, credit cycle, financial crisis, bubble type thing. But the mean one thing really didn't. So it's like whoever is the dead body like had to have uniquely found a way to commit, to put you like, is like a unique form of death.

right? The thing also about the N F T, like the min coin market, is that there are so many more people playing the memory game with very small amount of money. That was just not possible with the N F T market, right? The F T market, the cost to play was just so high .

comparison I haven't seen and would love to SHE either sea or do is like comparing the total number of N F T collections and mints to the total number of meme coins. And like getting an idea of like, like velocity money, velocity for both of them, or like something because, like, I feel like in my intuition, which could be wrong, is that there actually were more in coins, F T. Collection.

undoubted. I .

know how much, how much. 嗯。

i mean, almost certainly many, many more traders from main kinds and entities. I think if you look at the status on open sea, what's IT like a million total people who have ever try entity something like that? I think it's rough order manitoes.

Where is the main point? It's almost certainly like more than thirty million, I would guess. And I I mean including centralize venues, I i'd guess on chain probably on the order of five ten lion, my guess I don't not just have thrown .

throw the number year I think is isn't going like the like second profitable currency, Robert od .

product.

So it's like, yeah yeah .

so okay um warning upon time， we I took some questions from twitter to see what people wanna to talk about. And I think having .

were going rapid fire, rapid fire, no.

no, no. I I just want to do one because I think is April power of us spending a lot of time talking about pumper fun because they think talked of fun. And me coins in general, they give people kind of fatigue about the cycle and about the commissim and and like morale that were seeing.

So I don't think I I think it's it's just a spectrum of opinions, but I do think the loudest voices on crypto twitter are like that.

yes. Um and so one of the questions we've got actually from from internet bond was what is something that you're looking forward to encysted u over the next couple years. And I think it's also important on the show that we try to also give the other side of what's happening encrypt, which is that it's not all this kind of nyalong tic short term st you know uh, gambling, but there's a lot of importance of happening in space. So I want to in the show on that note and will go around a quake, something you're looking forward to in the next seven years.

Tom, also with you is obvious feel, something i've been really told on Z K T L S over the past few months have been planned around with like T S notary and stuff. And it's super cool, I think, in part because IT fits this. Z K T L S lets you verify components of a web response which uses T L S um and then take that with functions. So for example, there is a product H Z K P to p which lets you prove that you put them on the no to do so.

This decentish zed um on ramping off ramping kind of thing super call um they hear that I like is I think right now when you talk about applications and ypo u these of you web two, it's always um what web two company is is going to do everything on chain or they going to move things on chain like I don't think it's going to have. This seems very, very really sick or two. We're gona build airbnb on chain.

I was the thing is very unrealistic. I think these models, Z K T S allows you to busy bridge the two of allowing cyp to to interact with the webs in some way um but doing IT in a way that is sort of bootstrapping or sort of glooming on to this stuff. Thirty happened on the internet and so um I think that's super cool and it's obvious ly still in development. But um i've been really excited about some of the applications that are billing in this space.

Go turn what is .

um I think mine probably is uh a kind of expansion on the theme I said earlier, which is like despite you know that application being for for mean kinds. Although I think that for all the people who have raise money for doing all this agent stuff in cyp du like that is actually a viable business versus, you know, whatever high luton thing ninety percent of people say.

But I do actually think this idea of, like, crypto systems provide you A, A common substrate. B, I can verify everyone can verify some subset of facts as the same and see um you can kind of have dynamic rules. I can get updated by the collective interacting with IT uh and so the idea of these systems were in the Normal world, especially the Normal financial world, the rules of the game are static um but the players can have gnomic strategies.

I think one beautiful thing that cropt is you can actually have the the game change at the same time as the players change the strategy. So it's like imagine playing chess and like as you're playing chest somehow, like um you know uh you can remove one piece from the board and now all the sunders a hole on the board and you have to avoid that peace. And a lot of like financial applications are inherently like this, like a lot of whenever this a regime shift and finance, that's the same thing, is like someone poking a hole in the chest ort and saying, oh, you can use that spot anymore.

But I kind of think that there the idea that the contracts themself elves are smarter and can kind of like adjust the rules dynamically, you know if we're starting to get there. And some of IT is zk t co processing type stuff. Some of IT is things like risking where there's like you can do off change stuff and prove IT correctly, which which is sort of a way of doing that. But this general idea of of these dynamic games where the not only are the players changing their strategies but the board is changing is actually really interesting in me. And like I feel like there's there's you can't really do that in other parts of society very well.

You know, like the idea of the rules changing, uh, due to how the players are interacting in the centralized setting, no central, andy, whatever really let you do that, they wanted choose the rules for their game, right? And uh, you know it's a very abstract answer, but the reason I kind of bring IT up as a lot of these things that actually grow in terms of usage and encrypt have the structure and and so like really like whether it's me coin rather its on of tea, whether it's sort of like um sort of some of the a kind of like how certain l one ecosystems are able to boost rap themselves, that sort of again is like kind of multiplayer game where like the rules are changing this on what contracts entered the ecosystem. They're sort of this if you take that lens of viewing the world, there's clearly a lot of CoOperation problems that can be solved if you can automate that.

That part of the rules changing right right now, we're in the part of hypo. That's like I write the smart contract and that's like a fixed strategy. It's like the slot machine that like doesn't change its rules.

And and you know, of course, you can not oracles and stuff that give you input that let you change the rules a little bit. But I think would like a lot the advance prototype Y A lot of things like we seeking, you can now have the rules change and be very confident in the safety of that. And that is a new very new set of interactions that you can have.

okay. Well, I answered this question I think is a little more basic than for both of you. Um I I am reminded of this um something that I I I remember who there are some physicists who said in the early twenty century that quantum physics was a twenty first century science that fell by accident into the twenty th century and in a way too early for the idea of economic changes to be fully understood and and incorporated into physics and I feel in some way the same is kind of true of blocks tions is that know the block tions was invented in two thousand eight but in a way two thousand eight was too early for all the things that needed to come together for blocks to get full integrated society.

And part of IT, of course, is I think the rise of the changing and attitudes towards governments and toward and geopolitics. Part of IT is also the fact that a digital natives are now becoming more and more a part of the H A part of the the sort of seats of power within society and dispensers in the world. Uh the world is becoming more interconnected.

And of course, we just saw you know very recently um you know coin base going to demonstrate this thing about a is paying other ais using cypher. Um we're going to move increasingly over the next couple decades toward the world. Is internet more and more by air and must by human? And and the paper currency is going to become kind of updated and and irrelevant to the way that most second.

the us. Is talking about getting rid of the penny.

which yes, that's right. That's right. And of course, you know india has completely moved away from cash. So I think the in a way like the thing that makes me bullish on the thing that are most excited about is not any particular technology um I think almost everything encrypt u know the inquisition of kind of bear min points, but almost everything in ript to and buying large bullish on and I do think is going to happen in one form or another um but if the biggest thing that makes that all happen is just time, it's just like people who are old and resistant to the ideas behind crypto and grew up in a very different kind of world in the world in which crypto t matters.

Just kind of aging out and losing relevance and losing the ability to veto the stuff and the people who are Younger and are gaining in power um for them crypto is being kind of obvious or something that they have much more curiosity, openness about. And those people, the longer you wait, the more and more they're going to sit in the centers of power and there can be able to make the decisions that, you know, okay, yes, black rock says yes and goldman sexes yes, but vanguards says no. And eventually someone's going to step into the helmet and garden, say, actually yes, of course, of course CPU should be part of this financial platform and uh, the same with jim Morgan and the same with more and more of the centuries of power are going to almost a very boring kind of way just beautifully step aside and say, oh yes, of course, crept should be incorporated into the overall economy.

And this one of the reasons why I think as a venture capital is less than as a trader, as a trainer, you're going to know when that's going to happen. And I can I can see why there's a lot of anxiety about, oh, well, you know, it's going to happen this year, gonna happen tomorrow, is are going to happen this month. Uh, but as a venture capitalist, the question of the answer is, is that going to happen over the next five to ten years? And I think the answer that we see this year is like very obviously, yes, we're seeing and happened right in front of us with the regulation and know the political attitudes in the U S. And you know, whatever you think about, you know, trump rs commoner, it's very clear that both sides have moved closer to the cypher side over the last year.

Um so how many how many candidates who were funded by their check where I would like some very high number, right? Like i've like the number of can candidate that wonder primary or whatever .

who find .

by your shake. Yes, I don't know. I don't know that I saw some number today that was like in the thirties out of forty two or something like that. So it's like I was like at least like seventy sound ty five percent. So like I feel like that no that's .

something a lot of work that's yeah yeah and keep up the good work everybody you know coin days rio everybody is donating first ship pack eight six and see um good as do you guys for helping know push all this forward. Anyway we're up on time um we get a rap but will be back next week hopefully I think actually next week will be doing a show week after next we'll be doing shows live from token twenty forty nine. So for those of you who in singapore, please come to at this or if you're not plan to come to singapore, come out with a lot of one.